Bitcoin Forum
June 22, 2018, 09:33:32 PM *
News: Latest stable version of Bitcoin Core: 0.16.1  [Torrent]. (New!)
 
  Home Help Search Donate Login Register  
  Show Posts
Pages: « 1 ... 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 [63] 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 »
1241  Economy / Speculation / Re: bitcoin market on: January 05, 2013, 08:53:41 PM
bitcoins are wayyy overpriced right now. even ignoring technical analysis (which i generally do not -- i've been following along in the CRASH thread with similar notations and predictions as lucif) there is reason to suspect, as many on this forum -- albeit quietly -- do, that we are heading towards a midterm downtrend or even, for the first time in bitcoin history, a long-term downtrend.

heres a short list:
price double, ostensibly from the reward halving, but anyone who looks at the math involved in the halving with regards to the protocol would realize (as it was widely discussed) that there is no such cut-and-dry "supply halving" to cause this to happen. yet the market priced it in rather suddenly, not based on any other real news, after the extremely low-volatility period in the early summer.

straight lines on log graphs are unsustainable: something is going on here. we aren't seeing widespread adoption which would hypothetically follow an exponential growth model. we're just seeing people buying reallly expensive bitcoins.

accumulation/distribution at an all-time high and is losing momentum.

optimism: we're still in the 'denial' phase of investor emotion cycles after the rocket to 15 crashed and burned and we failed to even come close to the all-time high.

and finally, probably my most subjective point:

bitcoins were worth $5 six months ago and there has been no significant increase in their utility or future value promise: i firmly believe the recent doubling is due to hype about the reward halving and market manipulation by pirate and others.

LOL, speculators can't see any other use for bitcoin then to speculate.
Maybe bitcoin isn't hitting mainstream just yet, maybe it never really will, but its not going to crash and burn because of this...
Your fucking BLIND if you can't see the growth.
did you sell everything yet? no? I hope you fall in the bear trap coming up...

im sorry, did you address any of the above points? or did you quote me to contrast my well-structured analysis with your emotional rant?

"speculators gonna speculate" actually ties into why the hell the price doubled on no news. sure, infrastructure is building. actually, as far as the project is concerned, im amazed and inspired by how far we've come; bitcoin is robust and will one day have its shot at widespread adoption. and nobody said anything about 'crashing and burning', but rather a good old reality check to end the neverending bullrun that we've seen to date.
1242  Economy / Speculation / Re: bitcoin market on: January 05, 2013, 04:16:32 AM
I meant
In case of zero volume: The players are in, and the market is cleared. Some prospect price x in the future, some think y. When everybody has echanged accordingly, the trade stops. As soon as these condsiderations change for one or more people, trade starts again. The trend points to another equilibrium in the future.

The situation now is therefore that most players that know about bitcoins, are satisfied with their current holdings. That is the reason for the low volume. This of course will change.

you've adequately described how volatility acts as a positive feedback loop.

however, to reference the OP, i doubt bitcoin's value will come anytime soon from fear of dollar depreciation. forget the fiscal cliff, american politics really doesn't affect the value of the dollar. inflation rates are well-known and the budget drama is all posturing. the worst that could happen is another credit rating downgrade resulting in less favorable interest rates. not even an economic recession as described as absolute worst case post sequestration could cause people to lose enough faith in the dollar to effect the BTCUSD rate. right now, bitcoin-related events have a much larger impact (think the WP announcement, ASIC progress) than "real-world" events.

i personally think that large players are waiting for the right rally to spring the bull-trap. see my recent bulleted list as to the reasons why bitcoins are overpriced right now.
1243  Economy / Speculation / Re: bitcoin market on: January 03, 2013, 08:07:06 AM
The low volume suggests relative stable value scales on the part of the sellers and buyers on the market. Volume and of course direction og course indicates changes mind on part of the current bitcoin holders. Even if we rule out newcomers, I expect the btc to go slowly higher as fear of reduction of the exchange value of the dollar increases.

i don't understand this bit. also, why bullish again?
1244  Other / Off-topic / Re: anyone up for a game? on: January 02, 2013, 09:29:32 AM
dont want to make a new thread, so is anyone awake that might want to join me? im out of free games  Cheesy
1245  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another analyst :) on: January 02, 2013, 06:29:43 AM
Interesting analysis, i like it a lot.

But i think you're "over-analyzing a bit" just like the bullish analysts do (to make their case). But with that being said i appreciate it a lot, very interesting read Smiley


For the record, im short bitcoin, no reasons other than the blockhalving was overhyped by speculators (visible with the highly-impulsive buys in the weeks before it, we need to correct those before we can move higher).

are you shorting through a broker or did you simply sell your holdings?
1246  Economy / Speculation / Re: CRASH!!!! on: January 01, 2013, 12:24:47 PM
merry christmas to all, and to bitcoin's value, goodnight.

i'm targeting $12.50 before a bullish correction to $12.85 and then only down from there...

short term targets: $13.00, $13.10$13.20, $12.85, in order

due to recent buying pressure, we may see a small upswing before the plummet, but it will be a bull trap. no higher than $13.75, and then the above targets.

due to the strong support forming around $13.20 (approx 4k btc) i have made the bolded amendment in targets as i suspect this is where the resistance will form.

as we just witnessed a dump (L: $13.30) immediately following the bulltrap up to $13.67, we are staying on track. next movement will break through the support at $13.20 and bounce off of $13.00, then following the aforementioned targets.

did everyone see the 4k btc bid wall @ $13.40 eaten up within a half hour? we're looking to freefall any day now...
1247  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another analyst :) on: January 01, 2013, 11:16:58 AM
Look what happened after the triangle at $5 broke sideways. For bitcoin, sideways (lack of selling) is an indicator of confidence, and leads to upward movements. The accumulation/distribution indicator (among others) is again confirming this.

but (on weekly scale) accumulation/distribution isnt making steady gains like it did preceding the bull run from $5. its at an all-time high but has formed a local max (reversal) shape.

also, i think the quoted observation is simply due to the historical endless bullrun with corrections. it may be about time we hit that inflection point...

past performance is not indicative of future results?
1248  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another analyst :) on: December 30, 2012, 09:58:18 AM
It sets a precedent which is not even close to priced in yet.

so you're saying that that single business venture is worth more than a doubling of value for every single one of 10 million coins?
1249  Economy / Speculation / Re: CRASH!!!! on: December 30, 2012, 08:12:26 AM
as much power as you may think you have, my clicking of your orange button fails to transform me either into a cat or a vagina.
1250  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another analyst :) on: December 30, 2012, 08:10:33 AM
bitcoins are wayyy overpriced right now. even ignoring technical analysis (which i generally do not -- i've been following along in the CRASH thread with similar notations and predictions as lucif) there is reason to suspect, as many on this forum -- albeit quietly -- do, that we are heading towards a midterm downtrend or even, for the first time in bitcoin history, a long-term downtrend.

heres a short list:
price double, ostensibly from the reward halving, but anyone who looks at the math involved in the halving with regards to the protocol would realize (as it was widely discussed) that there is no such cut-and-dry "supply halving" to cause this to happen. yet the market priced it in rather suddenly, not based on any other real news, after the extremely low-volatility period in the early summer.

straight lines on log graphs are unsustainable: something is going on here. we aren't seeing widespread adoption which would hypothetically follow an exponential growth model. we're just seeing people buying reallly expensive bitcoins.

accumulation/distribution at an all-time high and is losing momentum.

optimism: we're still in the 'denial' phase of investor emotion cycles after the rocket to 15 crashed and burned and we failed to even come close to the all-time high.

and finally, probably my most subjective point:

bitcoins were worth $5 six months ago and there has been no significant increase in their utility or future value promise: i firmly believe the recent doubling is due to hype about the reward halving and market manipulation by pirate and others.
1251  Economy / Speculation / Re: CRASH!!!! on: December 30, 2012, 07:55:55 AM

LOL ur keeping up yet you keep referring to longer-term when i said medium-term.

But okay lol

you've got to be trolling me. maybe i'll just ignore you; that seems to be a very popular forum solution for your (seemingly intentional) less-than-helpful posts.
1252  Economy / Speculation / Re: CRASH!!!! on: December 29, 2012, 10:05:46 AM
it would be natural adjustment as per market requirements

your specificity is incredible. pronouns without referents, even. well done.
1253  Economy / Speculation / Re: CRASH!!!! on: December 29, 2012, 09:23:38 AM
Quote
Be careful not to overpay for your bitcoins in the medium term (few months).
Quote
If you can read I said MEDIUM TERM not LONG TERM. Keep up ok? Thanks lol
i'm keeping up. by the above i assumed you meant that they would REMAIN overpriced THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF the mid-term. naturally meaning that we would still have a ways down to go in the long-term. sorry for the confusion. maybe if you posted actual analytic replies and not just cryptic hints we'd get somewhere.

if you remember, my very first response was a request for clarification.
1254  Economy / Speculation / Re: CRASH!!!! on: December 29, 2012, 08:31:37 AM
snip

Be careful not to overpay for your bitcoins in the medium term (few months).

im not sure what you're implying...

are you saying that the predicted downtrend will not bottom out in the mid-term? i'm not sure anyone can say with confidence that we may be looking at a downtrend in the long-term, bitcoin has been historically bullish.

That does not mean the price can only go up.

yes, but what evidence is there for a long-term downtrend? my analysis of the market data shows ambivalence in the long-term, but moderately to extremely overbought in the short- and midterm. i also think the lack of a stable short-selling platform like bitcoinica has been and will continue to be an issue for bears.
1255  Economy / Speculation / Re: CRASH!!!! on: December 29, 2012, 07:39:59 AM
snip

Be careful not to overpay for your bitcoins in the medium term (few months).

im not sure what you're implying...

are you saying that the predicted downtrend will not bottom out in the mid-term? i'm not sure anyone can say with confidence that we may be looking at a downtrend in the long-term, bitcoin has been historically bullish.
1256  Economy / Speculation / Re: CRASH!!!! on: December 29, 2012, 04:11:02 AM
merry christmas to all, and to bitcoin's value, goodnight.

i'm targeting $12.50 before a bullish correction to $12.85 and then only down from there...

short term targets: $13.00, $13.10$13.20, $12.85, in order

due to recent buying pressure, we may see a small upswing before the plummet, but it will be a bull trap. no higher than $13.75, and then the above targets.

due to the strong support forming around $13.20 (approx 4k btc) i have made the bolded amendment in targets as i suspect this is where the resistance will form.

as we just witnessed a dump (L: $13.30) immediately following the bulltrap up to $13.67, we are staying on track. next movement will break through the support at $13.20 and bounce off of $13.00, then following the aforementioned targets.

---

the only reason i am bothering with this short-term stuff is i believe the upcoming movements are serious and will precipitate a true mid-term downtrend that will break us out of the price channels we've been in for the last 2 months. if you are also following lucif's thread, he seems to be reading the charts the same way.
1257  Economy / Speculation / Re: CRASH!!!! on: December 29, 2012, 01:03:09 AM
merry christmas to all, and to bitcoin's value, goodnight.

i'm targeting $12.50 before a bullish correction to $12.85 and then only down from there...

short term targets: $13.00, $13.10, $12.85, in order

due to recent buying pressure, we may see a small upswing before the plummet, but it will be a bull trap. no higher than $13.75, and then the above targets.

link to previous right predictions please

above is a validated prediction. breakout but only to $13.67.

$13.00 here we come!
1258  Economy / Speculation / Re: CRASH!!!! on: December 26, 2012, 03:59:06 PM
merry christmas to all, and to bitcoin's value, goodnight.

i'm targeting $12.50 before a bullish correction to $12.85 and then only down from there...

short term targets: $13.00, $13.10, $12.85, in order

due to recent buying pressure, we may see a small upswing before the plummet, but it will be a bull trap. no higher than $13.75, and then the above targets.
1259  Economy / Speculation / Re: CRASH!!!! on: December 26, 2012, 02:00:17 PM
physics student here, hoping to demystify what's going on in this cool demo:



forces on the ruler are in red, torques on the ruler are in blue.

for simplicity the forces and torques on the hammer are omitted.

the force of tension from the weight of the hammer through the string (Ft) exerted on the ruler is balanced by the normal force up from the table (Fn). normal force is the force exerted, for instance, on your hand when you press on a solid, which prevents you from compressing the material as you would a semi-solid like clay. forces are equal and opposite. no problem here.

however, what's more interesting is the the ruler doesn't rotate; it won't flip off the table. rotational motion is caused by TORQUES, which is a force at a distance from a point of rotation. what's cool about torques is that T = F * r or that a small force at a large distance away from the center of rotation (utilising a large lever arm) exerts the same amount of torque as a large force closer to the point of rotation. think how crowbars work. in this example, the center of rotation or pivot point is the point where the ruler rests on the edge of the table.

for no rotation to occur, torques must also be equal and opposite. the weight of the hammer is providing a large force close to the pivot point, but only provides a small amount of torque. this torque is clockwise from our reference point because the applied force is down. the handle of the hammer is actually causing an upward force at an angle theta with respect to the ruler, which exerts a smaller force at a right angle with the ruler, upward. this smaller force at a longer distance in the opposite direction supplies to equal and opposite torque, so the system remains in equilibrium.

physics is pretty sweet Cool
1260  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin nearly reaching its highest ever market capitalisation on: December 25, 2012, 01:36:18 PM
>clam down
Pages: « 1 ... 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 [63] 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 »
Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!