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141  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 18, 2014, 05:35:08 AM
Such volume. Smiley



it's always beautiful to see triangle consolidation patterns on such small scales... the self-similarity in the price function is striking.
142  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 18, 2014, 05:02:50 AM
That was nice dump.  Shocked

caught me by complete surprise, i didn't think the first small move down to $620 was significant at all Tongue
143  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 18, 2014, 04:47:49 AM
Price was set to go down before this significant move Grin tbh  

Whenever there's no volume on Bitcoin, you can bet the price will go down.

do you believe your own generalities? or do you simply make a habit of hindsight rationalizations that make it seem to yourself like you're an infinite spout of wisdom?

in the historical data sideways consolidation has been bullish for Bitcoin more often than not.

Because sideways consolidation and close to zero volume are exactly the same thing. Can I pay you for that wisdom please?

then i misunderstood you. all i mean to say is, i don't think the data supports your assertion.
144  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 18, 2014, 04:43:40 AM
Price was set to go down before this significant move Grin tbh  

Whenever there's no volume on Bitcoin, you can bet the price will go down.

do you believe your own generalities? or do you simply make a habit of hindsight rationalizations that make it seem to yourself like you're an infinite spout of wisdom?

in the historical data sideways consolidation has been bullish for Bitcoin more often than not.
145  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 18, 2014, 04:35:34 AM
it is not a "SIGNIFICANT MOVE" as far as bitcoin price action is concerned, but it carries information in the short-term.

Exactly. Earlier today when I posted a chart illustrating the support breach this morning and lack of pressure to fuel a strong bounce, I was told I was over-analyzing. And I thought, do people around here wait for a sell-off to conclude that the price might go down? I'm trying to close or accumulate position before that occurs....

yeah it seems many traders around here don't understand the idea of keeping ahead of the market. chasing the market is more obvious, but obviously less profitable Tongue

it also doesn't require empirical methods of constructing a workable signalling theory like the one i outlined in my last post. but then again, many traders here don't even "believe in" TA at all Wink
146  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 18, 2014, 04:16:16 AM
Quote
this is the largest range in any 6-hour period in the last 7 or so days.

7 days is nothing, 2% is nothing in Bitcoin, current boring situation is unusual. Move on, you know just as I do that we'll see significant moves in either direction soon so why making nothing to be significant.

-facepalm-

we're mincing words at this point. it is not a "SIGNIFICANT MOVE" as far as bitcoin price action is concerned, but it carries information in the short-term. it strengthens the case for a movement downward before we break above the mid-term resistance. you may disagree, but try not to sound so categorically correct when you do.
147  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 18, 2014, 04:02:39 AM
I would NOT describe a $5 to $10 downward trickling movement as a "significant price action."

then you have something to learn about price movement. not only is a $15 movement in a 6-hour period the largest range we have seen in about a week, the volume associated with the movement is the largest we've seen in that same time frame. this makes it significant in magnitude if only in comparison to the watching-paint-dry-caliber price behavior this past week. it is also significant in that it may herald a steady increase in volatility from here on out after that painfully quiet consolidation.

However you describe it move from 630 to 620 is not significant move, specially in Bitcoin. It might go down more of course and make it significant but no fancy big words talk could make it significant at this moment.

no big words necessary. $635-$620 is a range of $15, in 6 hours. this is the largest range in any 6-hour period in the last 7 or so days. the associated volume is also greater than any 6-hour period in the last 7 or so days. the move in itself is not a significant price move, but it carries significance in relation to the price environment. but i guess it doesn't matter much to someone who's so damn rich they can't help but post their holdings any chance they get Tongue

also, as if on cue, a massive askwall just appeared at $630.
148  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 18, 2014, 03:41:05 AM

So, if loss of bid depth on both sides is dramatically measurable, that likely translates to a short-term loss of interest in BTC and likely downward trends....

I say it means hoarding has really begun.

a WILD CONJECTURE has appeared! Tongue

pretty sure it was just traders shifting the position of their orders in response to the first significant price action in almost a week. i forgot how far you guys in this thread will extrapolate and exaggerate any innocent data...


I would NOT describe a $5 to $10 downward trickling movement as a "significant price action."

then you have something to learn about price movement. not only is a $15 movement in a 6-hour period the largest range we have seen in about a week, the volume associated with the movement is the largest we've seen in that same time frame. this makes it significant in magnitude if only in comparison to the watching-paint-dry-caliber price behavior this past week. it is also significant in that it may herald a steady increase in volatility from here on out after that painfully quiet consolidation.
149  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 18, 2014, 03:18:58 AM

So, if loss of bid depth on both sides is dramatically measurable, that likely translates to a short-term loss of interest in BTC and likely downward trends....

I say it means hoarding has really begun.


Trading and hoarding are two different concepts.... .. ... ... YET I take it that a fair translation,in the trading, scenario would be that hoarding is HODLING....... which means... I am NOT giving up my coins until the price goes up....    Cheesy

not to scare you, but what if the price never goes back up? it's certainly a possibility that you must consider.
150  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 18, 2014, 02:56:22 AM

So, if loss of bid depth on both sides is dramatically measurable, that likely translates to a short-term loss of interest in BTC and likely downward trends....

I say it means hoarding has really begun.

a WILD CONJECTURE has appeared! Tongue

pretty sure it was just traders shifting the position of their orders in response to the first significant price action in almost a week. i forgot how far you guys in this thread will extrapolate and exaggerate any innocent data...
151  Economy / Economics / Re: Residual effect from MtGox on: March 18, 2014, 12:57:21 AM
also, if the response is that most coins are put away into cold storage, this hoarding can cause another hyperdeflation event (price bubble).
152  Economy / Speculation / Re: Methods of Prediction on: March 18, 2014, 12:42:09 AM
My favorite method is to listen to cosmofly's autistic friend.
Grin +1

This is probably the best method to employ. It has been shown to be 100% all of the time. You can't beat 100%. Sure it's a 100% fail rate, but it's all good right?

actually, a 100% failure rate is just as impressive, and would be an infinitely useful contrarian indicator Tongue
153  Economy / Economics / Re: State of Wall street trading - where BTC is headed? on: March 18, 2014, 12:39:59 AM
High frequency trading alone does not create large price swings.  Actually it significantly narrows spreads and makes markets less liquid.  It represents innovation, not a reason to be fearful, as many people like to claim HFT is. And yes if bitcoin survives it will be traded like this by many firms.

do you mean less volatile? i was under the impression that speculators add liquidity to markets.
154  Economy / Speculation / Re: Just moved half of my funds off Bitstamp back into nice safe and warm Bank Konto on: March 18, 2014, 12:33:04 AM
im actually considering we gonna see a 2011 bear market if we dont go up soon enough

don't fall prey to this false dichotomy -- protracted, sideways consolidation is always an option.
155  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 17, 2014, 11:34:46 PM
rapid loss of depth on both the bid and ask side from the bitstamp orderbook in the past hour.... what's going on Huh traders finally moving orders that had been parked since the beginning of the painfully low volatility?


I don't see any meaningful changes regarding the order book walls.  

I see 6,000 bitcoins on each side of the order book (at least for the next $60 in each direction)..... pretty much unchanged from previous order book wall amounts



courtesy of bitcoinity
156  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 17, 2014, 11:21:01 PM
rapid loss of depth on both the bid and ask side from the bitstamp orderbook in the past hour.... what's going on Huh traders finally moving orders that had been parked since the beginning of the painfully low volatility?
157  Economy / Economics / Re: How to MASTER bitcoin trading on: March 17, 2014, 10:46:15 PM
ITT: buy low and sell high is a brilliant, groundbreaking idea Wink
158  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: March 17, 2014, 10:05:22 PM
Can you draw the correct chart? Has it already broken out?

unfortunately, it is difficult to tell what is the "correct" chart as any conjecture regarding which points are outliers is merely that -- conjecture. the best model for the mid-term moving resistance is a whole family of lines, with the one that has the most points of contact and the best case for its violations being outliers being most likely to carry significance. this requires a broader hypothesis with evidence for each of these internal assumptions.

that being said, the model i'm using right now still has not indicated a breakout. notice the daily RSI is still struggling to crossover the 50-line.

--arepo
159  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 17, 2014, 04:06:17 PM
any news that caused this small dip?

your assumptions are showing Tongue
160  Economy / Speculation / Daytraders' Daily Report on: March 17, 2014, 03:58:14 PM
Also, i have recently received some interest regarding a daytraders' daily report. this is in the works to launch as early as this week. it would consist of one email a day detailing a general observation and price targets, running for 4 weeks. PM me if you would be interested in this service!

--arepo
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