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1421  Economy / Speculation / Re: the MaNiPuLaToR on: February 02, 2012, 07:51:22 AM
the bid depth now looks unsettlingly similar to the ask depth that disintegrated after the big buy... so there does seem to be a mtgox-depth manipulator.
1422  Economy / Speculation / Re: inau's secret rocket on: February 01, 2012, 10:55:09 PM
anyone notice the blastoff? and the rapid disintegration of the fake asks resulting in a very bullish depth chart? reminds me of what i said yesterday...

i still see only about 30k real ask orders Grin

we just witnessed the first leg of the great bitcoin comeback. we will far overshoot 7.20 on the next leg up...

are you ready?
1423  Economy / Speculation / Re: $/BTC Time Series Analysis on: February 01, 2012, 10:03:19 AM
looks fairly bullish when combined with recent uptrends and the ability of the price to coast back to $7 once we get over this very next level of resistance...
1424  Economy / Speculation / Re: inau's secret rocket on: January 31, 2012, 11:09:39 PM
volatility's up, everyone prepared for the launch? keep your eyes peeled tonight...
1425  Economy / Speculation / Re: What is that mysterious triangular cycle? on: January 31, 2012, 10:10:13 PM
nobody cares about voodoo triangles.
1426  Economy / Speculation / Re: KNIFE IMMINENT on: January 31, 2012, 10:09:11 PM
after seeing this thread for like.. weeks, i need to express my bad feeling about it:

useless, panik spreading "KNIFE IMMINENT!" - bullshit thread. doomsday is at 12.12.2012, not NOW!

the "knife"-metaphor makes me kind of aggresive, excuse me.

if there is anything like a "knife" it is somebody selling 10k bitcoins - OH MY GOOD, THAT IS SO BAD, I BETTER SHOOT MYSELF IN THE FACE!
..get over it. price moves.  Cool


..

stop opening such threads, please. we don't need neither "KNIFE IMMINENT" nor "RALLY ABOUT TO EXPLODE" threads.
thanks

it actually did look pretty terrible when i made this post. i was being a little sarcastic by using said metaphor but that is my style. a few days of hindsight bias and it may seem obtrusive and unwarranted because the knife no longer seems imminent, and if you have any sense you ought to be back in BTC now, we're definitely turning around. as such, you're probably long again so i'm sorry for the FUD-style OP.
1427  Economy / Speculation / Re: KNIFE IMMINENT on: January 31, 2012, 10:06:41 PM
guys, let's get back to topic:

imminent knife is imminent.. or.. is it?

nope. almost every indicator has turned around since i made this post. im certain that $5.25 was the bottom, and we're continuing a massive trendline now undisturbed finally from the bubble over 7.
1428  Economy / Speculation / Re: inau's secret rocket on: January 31, 2012, 07:20:10 AM
i still see only about 30k real ask orders Grin

we just witnessed the first leg of the great bitcoin comeback. we will far overshoot 7.20 on the next leg up...

are you ready?

Post the poop or GTFO!

are you still referring to the unfunny joke about graphing my turds? eat shit
1429  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / satoshi=david chaum? on: January 31, 2012, 07:18:12 AM
reading about digicash and its failure, david chaum was always described as 'paranoid'. could he perhaps have decided that straight-up anonymity was the only solution to actually succeed a second time around?
1430  Economy / Speculation / Re: inau's secret rocket on: January 31, 2012, 05:47:30 AM
i still see only about 30k real ask orders Grin

we just witnessed the first leg of the great bitcoin comeback. we will far overshoot 7.20 on the next leg up...

are you ready?
1431  Economy / Speculation / Re: $/BTC Time Series Analysis on: January 31, 2012, 01:48:22 AM
we're looking quite entrenched, for the moment.

stable perhaps?
1432  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: CIA "paying spooks" with bitcoin on: January 31, 2012, 01:46:35 AM
ITT: sheer, absolute idiocy

1433  Economy / Speculation / Re: Block Reward changing to 25 BTC in November-December 2012 on: January 30, 2012, 11:31:58 PM
If you want to refute what I say, then refute it.  But don't say I am wrong just because you think I am wrong, without any sort of logic or evidence to back it up.

I'm sorry but seeing how it is you who is making these wild claims about how currencies work and what kind of currency Bitcoin is and how it's all going to work out or not, the burden of proof for all these wild claims lies solely with you. I don't have to prove a damn thing. I'm perfectly comfortable pointing out that you're merely making statements without any evidence pretending as if you're teaching us some sort of facts of reality.
It's basic economics.  Read any economics textbook, and it'll show you the same thing.


There you go again..  Roll Eyes

Matters with regards to economics.  If you have too much saving in an economy, you stifle economic growth.  And a deflationary currency encourages too much saving.  If you want to have a national economy with very little investment in new ideas because of lack of incentive to make investments, then that's fine.  All I am saying is, compared to the economy we have today (which is actually over-invested because of inflation), we would see far less innovation and progress if a deflationary currency was used.

SAYS WHO?! HOW DO YOU KNOW ALL THIS?! FKING STOP SPREADING BS WITHOUT EVIDENCE. Did you know that there's an entire economic school of thought out there that completely DISAGREES with every single word you just wrote there? Stop making bogus statements and start supporting them with evidence and proof otherwise please, just STFU.


You know people, according to SgtSpike savings are BAD! So you better not save, you better not think of using money that has properties which will cause it to appreciate cause you're going to destroy the economy. Unless of course you're saving in a depreciating currency, then by all means, save away! Roll Eyes

What utter nonsense.
Again, it's basic economics.  I learned this stuff in Economics 101.  Maybe you didn't take such a class.  It's like 1+1 = 2.  Anyone with common sense would agree that that formula is true, just like anyone with common sense would agree that a smarter investment with regards to a deflationary economy is an investment in the currency itself.

But, since you insist on me citing sources...

"Moreover: deflation results in gross imbalances in the economy: delayed consumption and capital investment and an increasing debt burden (in real, deflation-adjusted terms) adversely affect manufacturing, services, and employment. Government finances worsen as unemployment rises and business bankruptcies soar. Sovereign debt (government bonds) - another form of highly-liquid, "safe" investment - is thus rendered more default-prone in times of deflation."
http://www.globalpolitician.com/print.asp?id=6556

"When deflation occurs, the prices of goods and services are decreasing, so the primary goal for investors during deflationary times is to hold cash since its relative value is increasing.  One approach to holding cash includes placing money in money market funds or short term treasury bonds."
http://www.money-zine.com/Investing/Investing/Inflation-and-Deflation/

"3. May decrease investment and lending if cash holdings are seen as preferable (aka hoarding)"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deflation

"Here, the risk-adjusted return of assets becomes negative in nature, thereby encouraging the purchasers and investors to gather money, rather than investing it in solid and assured securities. This leads to the formation of a theoretical condition known as Liquidity Trap. Liquidity trap is regarded as a critical condition as it stagnates the economy, where the nominal rate of interest becomes zero or close to zero."
http://www.economywatch.com/inflation/deflation/effects.html

Satisfied now?  I'm not just making this stuff up.  A deflationary currency WOULD and DOES stifle the economy.

have you ever, once, had the thought that perhaps economics textbooks have a strong Keynesian bias?

don't patronize people it's unforumly
1434  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Technical Analysis & other financial markets (bitcoinbullbear.com) on: January 30, 2012, 11:23:26 PM
It is important to note that there are times when a neutral stance is warranted, and there are times when a clear probability is given.
This also depends on the time frame.

We have a clear bias in the mid and long term picture.
While short term it is neutral until key trigger levels are violated.

The Weather: It is important to note that there are times when a neutral stance is warranted, and there are times when a clear probability is given.
This also depends on the time frame.

We have a clear bias in the mid and long term picture.
(The season will change)
While short term it is neutral until key trigger levels are violated. (We don't know exactly what the weather will be.)

Weather is more predictable than markets.


markets are as predictable as weather.

i actually made this point in another thread; it's not a negative thing to say about technical analysis...
1435  Economy / Speculation / Re: inau's secret rocket on: January 30, 2012, 11:20:41 PM
I think that associating lowish volume with price drops is flawed. A large majority of Bitcoin trading is speculative, both buying AND selling. There is no drastic difference in the need for people to either buy bitcoins or buy dollars in this market environment. For example, during the rise from $2 to $7 we had many occasions of low volumes, yet the price was climbing up, slowly. Often there was a larger buy afterwards which lead to a rally of some kind.

If someone wants to argue this point, then there needs to be some data to support it. I have a hard time believing that lowish volume is always followed by a price drop. This was probably the case during the fall but we are in a different environment now. To me the price is on fairly neutral ground and it's truly quite hard to say where it'll go next.

In fact I think that a lot of times the reason we have a price drop after lowish volume is because someone is expecting a price drop and decides to go first, which then others follow. This is very important because a lot of what speculators do is based on what they think others will do.

I'm pretty tired of hearing about 'low' volume. So far, this month there have only been two days below $200K volume. In December there were 17 days below $200K. In November there were 22 days below $200K... So, compared to that recent history volume is not 'low'.

I think the whole problem with this perspective is that too many have become acclimated to a microscopic view of the market, obsessing about daily (hourly) wiggles and jumping at every bump and dip without really looking at anything in context...

Everything is just fine...
+1,000,000,000
1436  Economy / Speculation / Re: KNIFE IMMINENT on: January 30, 2012, 11:17:47 PM
IMO, bitcoin is not a good fit for a purely quantitative/technical approach.

i can agree with you here. many more things than strict technical analysis go into my decision-making. using this forum as a sentiment gauge works really well, actually.

Calculus aside, what is the forum sentiment in your opinion, and how do you use this to decide on price movement in the near term?

I made my position clear on that. I think we need to hit panic/despair before we get to the bottom. Since the new year rallies I would say optimism has remained pretty high.

you're assuming the last top was a reversal, and not just a correction from $7.20. we hit the trend line right as the last short-term downtrend started to lose momentum.
1437  Economy / Speculation / Re: are we under attack? on: January 30, 2012, 10:06:28 PM
we're starting threads every time we have hunches now? Roll Eyes
1438  Economy / Speculation / Re: inau's secret rocket on: January 30, 2012, 08:33:10 AM
This thread title sounds like a boudoir apparel store for men.  Wink

i try my best
1439  Economy / Speculation / Re: My position on: January 30, 2012, 08:12:14 AM
snip

Google trends tends to follow price, I have not found anything that shows me that it drives price.

+0

what baffles me is that this needs to be reiterated so much around here...
1440  Economy / Speculation / inau's secret rocket on: January 30, 2012, 01:50:20 AM
...i'm calling it this time. we're 'secretly' taking off. my call of the $5.50 low was a little off, but i did correctly identify a bottom. get ready...
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