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1481  Economy / Speculation / Re: yawn on: January 27, 2012, 06:20:50 AM
^ Can you reiterate those warnings, for those of us that forgot?

funny, just posted on that.
1482  Economy / Speculation / Re: KNIFE IMMINENT on: January 27, 2012, 06:05:20 AM
dude, you don't understand how charts work. the manipulator moves the price; the charts help determine how much MOMENTUM the price move has. for instance, by only looking at the price, you neglect volume, which is an important indicator, as well as price. the charts i use are simple transformations of the price and volume, many of which act as oscillators which is very important for predicting maxima and minima (i.e. learn 2 calculus)

here's a post i made days after the MACD crossover, immediately after the AROON UP/DOWN crossover, and predicting the plummet in the Chaikin Oscillator:
 
this is just the beginning. triple, quadruple, top. we're going down from here. there isn't enough faith in bitcoin to sustain prices over $7, remember the summer bubble was just this year. doubt prevented the 'obvious' rally to $8, and nothing's changed except a MASSIVE long squeeze reminding everyone just how risky their positions are. the slopes on each side up, then down from $7 demonstrate that what we saw was an echo bubble. expect a correction to the 'true' value of bitcoin (it will be above $2, that was an overcorrection). but we're going down from here.

bull market is over, for now.


Manipulators move the market, charts describe and predict how the market reacts to the movements.
1483  Economy / Speculation / KNIFE IMMINENT on: January 27, 2012, 05:51:06 AM


if any of you still don't 'believe' in charts, let's take a look:

-the Chaikin Money Flow became positive for the first time in early December... the same day that

-the MACD crossover to positive occurred,

foreshadowing a strong uptrend for December

furthermore, three very important signals occurred within the 1-2 days around the huge Bitcoinica mass liquidation:

-MACD/EXP crossover to negative

-AROON UP/DOWN crossover to negative

-testing of zeroline by the Chaikin Oscillator

lucky for me i got out at $6.85 when the MACD crossover occurred. you fools!

learn 2 charts

-arepo

ps clear bear market now, dead center, actually; if you follow the sine curve of "sentiment" we are now in pessimism, which immediately precedes PANIC



 Grin

EDIT: pps bear market signalled by the Chaikin Money Flow going negative for the first time since early December, and a huge crash (+/- crossover) in the Chaikin Oscillator (momentum of the Accumulation/Distribution Line) these past 2-3 days.
1484  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Doldrums on: January 24, 2012, 09:05:58 PM
There's been so much discussion lately about price stabilization, welcome to the Pax Manipulus  Tongue


False stability..  Until...  Ka-blammooo

Think of it as a sleeping volcano..

Eventually it has to release pressure... then where it goes.. no one knows! Smiley

Give it some time for short attention spans to kick in and new marks to enter the game. New marks are key, their wide eyed bullishness will make those once burned anxious about missing the Next Big Move. Then lather, rinse, repeat.

Relevant joke:
A man noticed a farmer walking with three-legged pig on a leash. It looked very odd. He said, "Farmer, why are you walking a three-legged pig?"

"Why, stranger, this is no ordinary pig," the farmer replied. "One night our barn caught on fire, and before my wife and I even woke up, the pig had called the fire department, and herded all the other animals out of the barn. The next week, a burglar got into the house, and the pig had him tied up and the police were on their way before I even realized what had happened. Then just last week, I fell into the duck pond and was like to drown, except this pig jumped in and pulled me out. Like I say, this is no ordinary pig."

"Well, that truly is a remarkable pig. But tell me, how did he come to have only three legs?" "Are you kidding? A pig this good, you don't eat all at once."


you are retarded and should be labelled SCAMMER based on this post alone

you even used the word 'mark'...
1485  Economy / Speculation / Re: A little more on technical analysis.. on: January 24, 2012, 04:28:18 PM
no one thinks the price is going up?
1486  Economy / Speculation / growth spurts on: January 20, 2012, 07:38:19 AM
recent spurts are making the price look reallly healthy. MFI clear positive trend and the accumulation/distribution line is outpacing the price.

...markets swing from overbought to oversold. the 200% increase could easily have been a correction from the HISTORIC, UNPRECEDENTED downward momentum of the falling-knife (panic-selling-induced) crash. perhaps this is a sign that the correction is over and $6-$7 is a 'healthy' price range for bitcoin. always think longer term.

i'm a bull again. went all-in BTC.

EDIT: month-scale trendline hasn't even yet been broken. also, the price is demonstrating some extreme resiliency. the Accum/Distrib line is equal right now as it was at the peak of the summer bubble, and the PVT is higher. perhaps everyone's back but much more mature? i expect strong growth this year.
1487  Economy / Speculation / Re: The price has bounced right back on: January 20, 2012, 03:46:09 AM
I don't trust those 50k walls at all... they are obviously the same ones that disappeared at 6.4 and 6.6 2-3 days ago when we were at 7.19 with practically nothing to go to 9. Without them, there wouldn't be any real support above 5.20/40.

You fools are being played again.

indicators are all bearish. i would heed this man's advice.
1488  Economy / Speculation / Re: It's ping-pong time again on: January 20, 2012, 03:43:44 AM
wow, maybe $6-7 IS the trading range..

i'll just leave this here

...markets swing from overbought to oversold. the 200% increase could easily have been a correction from the HISTORIC, UNPRECEDENTED downward momentum of the falling-knife (panic-selling-induced) crash. perhaps this is a sign that the correction is over and $6-$7 is a 'healthy' price range for bitcoin. always think longer term.
1489  Economy / Speculation / Re: In this thread, bulls comfort one another for their losses on: January 19, 2012, 08:41:03 AM
you fools

im up $270 going long from way before the spike to $7 and knowing when to pull out
1490  Economy / Speculation / Re: RALLY! on: January 19, 2012, 08:27:36 AM
the silence on the Spec Forum is deafening.  most have been liquidated.  the only ones left are the smart, mostly bigger players who withstood yesterdays whipsaws.

its too bad.  as i've said many times before, the reason i started my blog and post so often is to try and help my fellow Bitcoiners understand how Bitcoin fits into the real world and to help them not get shaken out of their holdings by the sharks.

its happened anyway.

i profited $270 and i'm a small-time, amateur trader.

i think first characterization is spot-on, though Tongue
1491  Economy / Speculation / Re: MtGox Live status on: January 19, 2012, 08:24:47 AM
out of sync?  like late?

yeah, language fails to express my disdain

W T F, Clark Moody is beating GoxLive by several seconds OFF ITS OWN API!!!

i too have noticed this phenomenon

mtgox takes too much money to provide such ridiculously subpar performance.

destroy the goxopoly
1492  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bear Thread! on: January 19, 2012, 04:10:22 AM
LAWL @ bitcoin being a safer investment than dollars. it's POSSIBLE for bitcoin to be $1 tomorrow.

dollar goes down, gold & silver goes up. bitcoin will remain volatile at a scale much larger than fluctuations in established currencies until its utility increases significantly.
1493  Economy / Speculation / Re: The 2-Week Trading Bubble ? on: January 19, 2012, 04:08:01 AM
Seems like that's what we've gone through, an over-leveraged bubble.

Many had commented all along that we should of been trading in the $5 - $5.50 range:




i completely agree with this analysis.
1494  Economy / Speculation / Re: Well, it's settling down. Where will it go from here? on: January 19, 2012, 04:06:00 AM
this is just the beginning. triple, quadruple, top. we're going down from here. there isn't enough faith in bitcoin to sustain prices over $7, remember the summer bubble was just this year. doubt prevented the 'obvious' rally to $8, and nothing's changed except a MASSIVE long squeeze reminding everyone just how risky their positions are. the slopes on each side up, then down from $7 demonstrate that what we saw was an echo bubble. expect a correction to the 'true' value of bitcoin (it will be above $2, that was an overcorrection). but we're going down from here.

bull market is over, for now.


What about the long term trend line?

no trend, echo bubble. take a look at the daily-scale oscillators:

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zigDailyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zxzi1gMACDzi2gMFIzi3gRSIzi4gWilliamRzv

MACD crossed awhile ago. MFI, RSI, and William's have all been in overbought zone for months and are now starting to zig-zag down.
1495  Economy / Speculation / Re: Well, it's settling down. Where will it go from here? on: January 19, 2012, 04:03:55 AM
this is just the beginning. triple, quadruple, top. we're going down from here. there isn't enough faith in bitcoin to sustain prices over $7, remember the summer bubble was just this year. doubt prevented the 'obvious' rally to $8, and nothing's changed except a MASSIVE long squeeze reminding everyone just how risky their positions are. the slopes on each side up, then down from $7 demonstrate that what we saw was an echo bubble. expect a correction to the 'true' value of bitcoin (it will be above $2, that was an overcorrection). but we're going down from here.

bull market is over, for now.


Please put your money where your mouth is:
www.bitcoinica.com

i don't trade on bitcoinica because i don't need leverage to achieve the maximum risk i am willing to take. my money 'is where my mouth is' right now, i pulled out of my long position right before the crash, took my 50+% returns, and have bids set at $4-5 so i can catch the next serrated edge of the...

fall
ling
kn
i
f
e

im all in usd and you should be too
1496  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bear Thread! on: January 19, 2012, 03:43:02 AM
Am I the only one who thinks it looks unstable?

i agree. we were waiting for that rally for far too long. everyone expected a rocket to the moon with CES, the TV show, and it didn't happen. then there was a huge dump, a veritable bull slaughterhouse. we're still having the burgers. the triple, quadruple top means it's a bear market now.
1497  Economy / Speculation / Re: $/BTC Time Series Analysis on: January 19, 2012, 03:40:41 AM
i'm astonished that $5.90 has that much support already.
1498  Economy / Speculation / Re: Well, it's settling down. Where will it go from here? on: January 19, 2012, 03:39:32 AM
this is just the beginning. triple, quadruple, top. we're going down from here. there isn't enough faith in bitcoin to sustain prices over $7, remember the summer bubble was just this year. doubt prevented the 'obvious' rally to $8, and nothing's changed except a MASSIVE long squeeze reminding everyone just how risky their positions are. the slopes on each side up, then down from $7 demonstrate that what we saw was an echo bubble. expect a correction to the 'true' value of bitcoin (it will be above $2, that was an overcorrection). but we're going down from here.

bull market is over, for now.
1499  Economy / Speculation / Re: Thinking about buying more coins on: January 18, 2012, 09:27:12 PM
Some smart posts finally. I think casascius is a bit off base here, from an economic perspective Bitcoin is modeled like gold and when you look at gold and its value, you do not see utility as a major factor. Gold is valued at over $1000 per ounce and the utility value of gold is only a small part of this. Large majority of its value comes from its properties as a store of value, because it is a good balancing asset for investors and regular people value it for savings.

Believe me when I say this, theoretically there does not need to be any utility value for Bitcoin to reach a stable value of over $1000. It's a good question if Bitcoin can reach such trustworthiness and appreciation based only on its properties as a secure and convenient store of value, but it's theoretically possible.

Trying to estimate the real value of bitcoins based on utility alone is futile because it's very likely that the speculative value, or investment value, will always be significantly ahead of its utility value. It's not about short term gains in the end, it's about keeping money as bitcoins for years. As savings, as long term investment.

This is why I'm not shy in recommending the people I know to buy some bitcoins, even at $7+. If they are investing an amount they are comfortable with and really understand that's it's a risky investment, I can recommend it. Here I'm talking about long term investments of course, where the goal is to keep that money as bitcoins for many years. If the goal is something else, then I might not recommend it.

This.

(I really dislike the "This." meme btw, but I've grown accustomed to it. Is it unique to bitcointalk? I haven't seen it elsewhere).

i am a frequenter of messageboards... you all were using +1 and i used 'this' instead because it was what i was used to. i never post a 'this' post unless it's really emphatic anyway, so i always was like +1,000,000 or 'THIS'. sorry for diluting your meme sphere Tongue
1500  Economy / Speculation / Re: mtgox unresponsive... on: January 17, 2012, 11:04:47 PM
Same happened to me, might be that it's already filled, just lagging.

nope, because i keep placing and cancelling orders. none of them filled. can't swing trade on this volatility with a wait time of more than a few seconds...
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