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1501  Economy / Speculation / Re: FUCK THIS on: January 17, 2012, 11:00:38 PM
I'm pissed since I have had a buy order "in queue" for ten minutes already!  Angry Angry Angry

Edit: About 12 minutes to change to "active". Thanks Gox!!!  Roll Eyes

+1,000,000

me too. mtgox is a ridiculously shitty service for the money they're taking from me
1502  Economy / Speculation / mtgox unresponsive... on: January 17, 2012, 10:58:48 PM
i've been trying to buy cheap bitcoins since the god damn crash.

i set a bid order at a price far above the market price, and it doesn't get filled. just sits there.

what is going on?
1503  Economy / Speculation / Re: Here we go! on: January 17, 2012, 10:54:17 PM
To me the one and only major reason this dip is happening is Bitcoinica and the problems it's having. Especially with the other developments recently, I see no other possible reason for this.

You mean reasons other than a gazillion signs of being in an echo bubble?

Exponential trend-line, lots of price hype, excessive trading on margin, and any news were tied to speculation, not commerce or reasoning as to why the price would rally. They ran out of leverage for the long positions all the time, what the hell? And then everybody was talking about a TV show that perfectly justifies the new prices... oh, and of course an immediate impending rally to 8. And then 9. And single-digit prices suck anyway!

Remember we're still above a 200% rise from the low about two months ago!

People are overdoing it! The later they come to their senses, the harder the landing is. "Rise to the moon right now!" is not a good plan, and if it fails now that's still better than repeating the madness of last year and paying with another exodus in a multi-month bust. If it's not too late to prevent that already.

you are dumb

markets swing from overbought to oversold. the 200% increase could easily have been a correction from the HISTORIC, UNPRECEDENTED downward momentum of the falling-knife (panic-selling-induced) crash. perhaps this is a sign that the correction is over and $6-$7 is a 'healthy' price range for bitcoin. always think longer term.

the fact that your prediction is right has nothing to do with whether or not the reasons you gave which i was rebutting are valid. also, unless you're already assuming that you are some super trader, each prediction is independent. as such, 'five in a row' means not much more than 'five, historically'. between the astrology thread and this kind of behavior, im starting to lose faith in the general rationality of traders...

so, congratulations, your prediction was correct. i also foresaw the danger and got out at $6.45.
1504  Economy / Speculation / the avalanche on: January 17, 2012, 10:34:05 PM
Oh yea, definitely not practical for predicting future bitcoin price. I don't trust the depth chart at all.

i find the depth data should be considered in a market where a large player can consume a wall (for instance, the one that WAS at $7.20 not so long ago) and cause an avalanche/roller coaster all by themself. these kinds of movements often belie other indicators.

She is swinging back up from the low $6.xx. Has been the take-off point for last 3 moves up.

All aboard everyone for the ride up to $7.xx once again.

you are dumb. too much downward momentum. too many failed expectations after not shooting to $8 two nights ago. this is a major correction and perhaps a reversal, if too many people get spooked. expect $5.5-$6 before resuming the uptrend, or only down from here.

i love being right.

i got out at $6.45 so screw yall
1505  Economy / Speculation / Re: RALLY! on: January 17, 2012, 10:28:59 PM
She is swinging back up from the low $6.xx. Has been the take-off point for last 3 moves up.

All aboard everyone for the ride up to $7.xx once again.

you are dumb. too much downward momentum. too many failed expectations after not shooting to $8 two nights ago. this is a major correction and perhaps a reversal, if too many people get spooked. expect $5.5-$6 before resuming the uptrend, or only down from here.
1506  Economy / Speculation / Re: Here we go! on: January 17, 2012, 10:22:47 PM
To me the one and only major reason this dip is happening is Bitcoinica and the problems it's having. Especially with the other developments recently, I see no other possible reason for this.

You mean reasons other than a gazillion signs of being in an echo bubble?

Exponential trend-line, lots of price hype, excessive trading on margin, and any news were tied to speculation, not commerce or reasoning as to why the price would rally. They ran out of leverage for the long positions all the time, what the hell? And then everybody was talking about a TV show that perfectly justifies the new prices... oh, and of course an immediate impending rally to 8. And then 9. And single-digit prices suck anyway!

Remember we're still above a 200% rise from the low about two months ago!

People are overdoing it! The later they come to their senses, the harder the landing is. "Rise to the moon right now!" is not a good plan, and if it fails now that's still better than repeating the madness of last year and paying with another exodus in a multi-month bust. If it's not too late to prevent that already.

you are dumb

markets swing from overbought to oversold. the 200% increase could easily have been a correction from the HISTORIC, UNPRECEDENTED downward momentum of the falling-knife (panic-selling-induced) crash. perhaps this is a sign that the correction is over and $6-$7 is a 'healthy' price range for bitcoin. always think longer term.
1507  Economy / Speculation / Re: It's ping-pong time again on: January 17, 2012, 10:19:21 PM
You can see the market is going down, question is when will it stop.

Put all of your faith in the almighty Trendline Wink

...not yet. i call at least to $6.00 before it resumes the trend. it can break the trendline if it has enough momentum, as long as the very next movement is an upwards correction.
1508  Economy / Speculation / Re: How long this correction will take? on: January 17, 2012, 08:19:54 PM
To be honest, I felt like I should have edited my post to specify that I was only referring to what you've posted in this thread. I'm at work right now and don't have the time to look through all your old posts and I don't really care either. I'm pretty new to this forum (but not bitcoin), so in time I'll see how I grade your posts, as you'll see how you grade mine.

And I'm foolish and believe I have nothing to learn from anyone, thank you.

FTFY
1509  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why bitcoin is currently (Jan 16th) crashing and why it may continue on: January 17, 2012, 07:33:43 PM
we still haven't gone under the long-term trend line. this could easily be a major multi-month-scale correction and not a reversal.
1510  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Form of a "perfect" bid/ask Curve on: January 17, 2012, 07:30:57 PM
Oh yea, definitely not practical for predicting future bitcoin price. I don't trust the depth chart at all.

i find the depth data should be considered in a market where a large player can consume a wall (for instance, the one that WAS at $7.20 not so long ago) and cause an avalanche/roller coaster all by themself. these kinds of movements often belie other indicators.
1511  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will the Good Wife episode cause a noticeable bump in Google Trends? on: January 17, 2012, 07:28:28 PM

Oh, and you might be confused, the phrase "Only in America is greater abstraction more desirable" was referring to a cashier's check which was obtained with fiat.

good on that. i hear the general attitude was very positive and they said the word tens of times, so everything went better than expected.
1512  Economy / Speculation / Re: How long this correction will take? on: January 17, 2012, 02:40:14 PM
it's funny, that graph looks peculiarly like the chicken entrails i was looking at yesterday...
1513  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will the Good Wife episode cause a noticeable bump in Google Trends? on: January 17, 2012, 02:37:56 PM
My favorite part:

"Only in America is greater abstraction more desirable."

this is such a stupid turn of phrase and is exactly why i don't watch tv. people who say 'only in america...' need to die -- it's rarely even a self-deprecating joke about a national stereotype, but rather always referring to an arbitrary concept which the speaker finds incredulous.

only in america do we use the phrase only in america

plus, the show is clearly misrepresenting bitcoin, which would be obvious if people knew anything about how an inflationary monetary system works  Cheesy
1514  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why bitcoin is currently (Jan 16th) crashing and why it may continue on: January 17, 2012, 02:32:50 PM
As you probably know, the "Bitcoin for Dummies" episode was a huge success.  Many people are searching for bitcoin and many people are buying bitcoin.   Because of this, many people are trying to buy on Bitcoinica.  Too many people are trying to buy, so Bitcoinica ran out of reserve.

 I find this quote suspect and self-serving.. or very naive. what evidence are they presenting that people saw this tv episode and somehow discovered bitcoinia?   For one thing, the best known exchange is mtgox.. and there was not even a volume spike on mtgox, much less a price rise.   Also, it will take noobs about a week just to fund their mtgox accounts with dollars via dwolla.  
The benefit of the episode "Bitcoin for Dummies" was not instant gratification, nor a significant motivator to bring in any substantial influx of new adopters.  Instead it was something much more substantial, an aggressive reminder that persistently reiterated the word "Bitcoin" (some 40 times?) into the ears of the viewers, and even included a full-on tutorial video and positive framing.

The TV episode's exposure was to a high quality, prime time, main stream viewership (think, "other media types.")  And since it was in the episode's title, it also systemically planted the word "Bitcoin" directly into the headlines of many newspaper and TV review blogs, including the New York Times and Huffington Post.  For a brief period, the word "bitcoin" graced the front page of the NYT and, for many people, may have been the first time that word "Bitcoin" came back again after the last press push pre June 2011.  And as far as the episode goes, that word didn't come passively.  To me, the exposure equated to "It didn't die; it's still here" and for the first time it was acknowledged as "hip" and "cool" by Hollywood.

As I said in another thread, it was a solid advertising 2.0 push.  A company couldn't have bought better product placement.

i noticed this, too. but what motivated such a shameless plug?

someone in tv production bought a holding and are trying to pump the price, perhaps?
1515  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Mount Doom on: January 17, 2012, 02:20:03 PM
i don't have a bot or run a browser-based ticker, so i can't say first-hand but i've heard lots of complaining over at the speculation subforum and have noticed myself the lack of responsiveness from mtgoxlive, clark moody's ticker, btccharts, &c during large rallies or downtrends.
1516  Economy / Speculation / Re: Poll :: Which star sign likes BTC most/least on: January 16, 2012, 08:00:07 PM
are you kidding me??

correlation does not imply causation

do you understand what that means?

Yes, I understand what that means.  However, lack of evidence does not disprove causation.  Do you understand what that means?

How the hell is one supposed to prove that the moon contributed to a person's decision to kill themselves?  The best you can do is show correlation, and that has been demonstrated.  I will accept that causation in this case not falsifiable, but that doesn't make it inherently false.  It does mean you need a different tool from science to be able to make a decision.  Either way you decide, your decision is based on faith, so unless you decide to not decide, you are going on faith.

"lack of evidence does not disprove causation"

a causative relationship is a positive claim. a positive claim requires positive evidence. so yes, the positive claim that there is a mechanism by which the phase of the moon (or any astrology) directly affects people's actions and dispositions, there being no evidence for such a claim, should not be assumed by a rational person.

there is currently a lack of evidence for a causative relationship between ice cream sales and drownings. if someone believed in such a relationship, you would call them a conspiracy theorist.
1517  Economy / Speculation / Re: Poll :: Which star sign likes BTC most/least on: January 16, 2012, 06:46:11 AM
Yes, in your eyes you might be being nice to her because of those negative energies she is dealing with, but in her eyes you might just be being nice. It doesn't really matter why you act the way you do, but if you trying to be nice because of those energies, she can benefit from you being nice just because you're nice (Which is of course a good thing!) and get back to normal quicker. It doesn't really matter what caused it, but in my opinion it's just so far fetched to seek a reason in the stars, when there's a bazillion other things that could have caused her behavior. Humans are complex creatures after all!

What about the moon?  Look at hospital records for full moons compared to normal nights, there are way more accidents.

Can you please give me a source? I'd be interested to read it. I've done a few quick google searches, but I'm finding things pointing out there are no such correlations. Thanks!

Here's a scientific article, which found no such correlation: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15166467

More self poisonings during full moon:
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?db=PubMed&cmd=Retrieve&list_uids=7448570&dopt=Abstract

Increase in female calls, decrease in male calls during new moon at crisis-call center:
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/14664724?dopt=AbstractPlus

Aggravated assault more common near full moon:
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/641019?dopt=Abstract

I couldn't find one directly about hospital admissions.  In my case, that was taken from anecdotal evidence from several nurses.  The effect may be limited to those who believe in it Wink.  But, the reality is, people believe in it.  That would explain it being found in limited areas, but not seen overall.  I wish I could find a study that took place in rural India, or another place where astrology is highly regarded.

are you kidding me??

correlation does not imply causation

do you understand what that means?
1518  Economy / Speculation / Re: Is the price slowly climbing? on: January 16, 2012, 06:38:26 AM
this isnothing yet .

double digit btcusd values will easily be reached - not in a straight line, but in a stair step pattern

impressive.
1519  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Mount Doom on: January 16, 2012, 06:34:53 AM
also, they need to fix their damned API and MtGoxlive feature... they make enough money from our trades. perhaps it is time that someone begin working on a new trading platform we can switch to so that these irresponsible self-appointed bitcoin police won't have a monopoly on our trades.

Whats the problem with their API / MtGoxlive?

it regularly becomes unresponsive during massive price movements
1520  Economy / Speculation / Re: Poll :: Which star sign likes BTC most/least on: January 16, 2012, 12:28:58 AM
Please look up the definition of "illusory correlation". Might explain a lot more than those stars =)

Definition:

An illusory correlation is the perception of a relationship between two variables when only a minor or absolutely no relationship actually exists. For example, people sometimes assume that because two events occurred together at one point in the past, that one event must be the cause of the other. These illusory correlations can occur both in scientific investigations and in real-world situations.

Stereotypes are a good example of illusory correlations. Research has shown that people tend to assume that certain groups and traits occur together, and frequently overestimate the strength of the association between the two variables. For example, let's suppose that a man holds a mistaken belief that all people from small towns are extremely kind. When the individual meets a very kind person, his immediate assumption might be that the person is from a small town, despite the fact that kindness is not related to city population.

You are wrong because sometimes people are wrong.  Got ya.  It sure explains a lot.

it's more specific than that. please don't belittle centuries of psychological findings.

plus, if you really want to go there, 'you're kind because the sun rose "in" a constellation as viewed from mesopotamia 2000 years ago' doesn't really sound very plausible to me.

Good for you!  For some people, it does.

unfortunately, reality is not a popularity contest
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