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1541  Economy / Speculation / Re: Well guys. The rally is over. on: January 15, 2012, 03:30:17 AM
haha i am currently unranked. however, i doubt i am up to 'dan' rankings. last time i was ranked i was at 9 kyu but it was when i was only beginning and have improved greatly since then.

What are the levels ?  many years ago an old roomate of mine claimed he used to play a 10th dan.
I've played it a few times, it was an interesting game.

it is the most complex game in the world.

the rankings are 30-1 kyu, in order of increasing skill. then 1st dan, et cetera.
1542  Economy / Speculation / Re: the insurmountable wall on: January 15, 2012, 03:21:38 AM
'the insurmountable wall' has been ever so slowly but steadily shrinking and now appears nothing more than a dilapidated hump. i see but 40k to $8.00 and 40k to $6.15, extremely lopsided. what now?
1543  Economy / Speculation / Re: Well guys. The rally is over. on: January 15, 2012, 03:18:50 AM
haha i am currently unranked. however, i doubt i am up to 'dan' rankings. last time i was ranked i was at 9 kyu but it was when i was only beginning and have improved greatly since then.
1544  Economy / Speculation / Re: Well guys. The rally is over. on: January 15, 2012, 02:56:01 AM
this. think long-term guys. the MACD hasn't even crossed the EXP yet, the price seems pretty stable, and we could rally within the week.

You're a go player. Please read what you are writing there again and re-think it. Come on, you know this is not how things work. When you play, do you think about what the moves from the current game's past tell you about the situation, or about the situation and possible future moves?

Prices don't move by some magical information encoded into past prices. The price has no opinion, and also isn't something that actually moves. It's two people deciding to exchange something, affected by a lot of things that do not necessarily relate to past trades on the same market.

I do chartism sometimes, and I admit it. But I would never do so without having an off-market model to back it up. I have heard hundreds of chartist theories, all but a single one turned out bad, and the remaining one is only valid in bubble context, plus I have no idea just how useful it is. Throwing in magic words without any information on the market context, model, reasoning why it should apply this very moment is nonsensical! If that works just in the slightest, write a bot and get rich without lifting a finger!

No offense really... but be a little careful with the voodoo. It's not about whether it's right this time or last time or in some context, it's about drawing all the attention toward trying to decode information that just isn't there.

TL;DR: Chartism that needs no context is fishy, check the reasoning.

i am a go player. and the stones on the board contain all of the information i need to determine where is best to play next.

i am not really sure about what you mean by 'chartism that needs no context', but using my chart voodoo has yielded around 50% returns on my investment, just through swing trading at MtGox, just since New Year's. my latest prediction, made just after the giant overnight dump, that we would go no lower than $6, and that the uptrend will continue, has not be proven wrong yet. it is not as if the charts predict the prices, but rather one might get a good sense of where the price could be going by analyzing the data described by the charts. if the MACD is losing momentum, and the RSI, William's %R, and Money Flow are all overbought, then it's likely we are in for a reversal. these kinds of analyses consist of looking at the price and volume data that exists in the single green line on MtGox live, but looking at it through a different lens. all of the charts i use are simple oscillators and such that respond to price and volume, which make up the true 'data base' of a market, and it is price and volume that inform the moves of traders anyway, the same way the configuration of stones on a go board informs each player's very next move.

there is no data in the charts that doesn't exist in the price and volume data, but this does not invalidate their usefulness. graphic representation is one of the best ways to wrap one's head around numbers in the first place. how big is 1,000,000,000 compared to 1,000? you can't fathom such a relationship without graphic representation. as such, the charts visually communicate the relationship between patterns between price and volume in a way that we simply cannot grasp by looking at raw price and volume data.
1545  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gearing up for tomorrow on: January 15, 2012, 02:38:31 AM
Does anyone think the good wife episode will drive up our market prices? I think we should see prices like before ($13,$20,$15). Does anyone have any predictions?

are you kidding me? those are completely unrealistic expectations. as above, we have to break the resistance at $7.20 first. i ought to chart an oscillator with overbought/oversold bounds such that when the bulls on the forum start frothing at the mouth it's a sure sign of an impending correction/reversal, and vice versa.
1546  Economy / Speculation / Re: Well guys. The rally is over. on: January 15, 2012, 12:05:42 AM
This thread.



this graph is beyond retarded. not only is it inane, but the data set is completely unfit for a line graph >.< it hurtss
1547  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Form of a "perfect" bid/ask Curve on: January 15, 2012, 12:00:59 AM
the perfect form is when there is a central authority that control this

-9000
1548  Economy / Speculation / Re: Sell Sell Sell! It's gonna crash to .99c on: January 14, 2012, 11:57:50 PM
Maybe this guy already moved his decimal place over one.

.1 BTC approaching .99c LOL

LAWL 0.1 BTC = 0.99c means 10 BTC = 99c means 1 BTC = 9.9c

math, people, it's not that freeking hard
1549  Economy / Speculation / Re: Elliot Waves - time for a long correction? on: January 14, 2012, 07:01:17 PM
How about returning to the 'main' trend since December:


+1

elliot can go eat some chicken entrails for all his analyses are worth
1550  Economy / Speculation / Re: fun stuff on: January 14, 2012, 06:26:14 AM
i am 12 and what is this
1551  Economy / Speculation / Re: Here it comes on: January 14, 2012, 06:23:02 AM
wtf is going on right now? massive volatility out of nowhere?
1552  Economy / Speculation / Re: Here it comes on: January 13, 2012, 11:34:27 PM
this. is there any good literature on what is supposed to happen once we enter the age of transaction fees?

As I recall, the assumption is that over time Bitcoin will become sufficiently entrenched that parties with interest in keeping the system running will continue to keep hashing blocks even if the fees don't cover the costs, as they stand to lose more if the system becomes insecure.

we must then hope that Bitcoin will become 'sufficiently entrenched' before the age of transaction fees...
1553  Economy / Speculation / Re: Google Trends on: January 13, 2012, 11:30:16 PM
not that simple, rising prices drive the searches, but more searches generates more articles and gives more exposure which adds new adopters and drives the prices up

it is some sort of closed loop exponential feeding law, when the black hole collapses, it looks like the same occurs but in reverse

how long between two cycles? 100% psychological: until people forget and journalists/bloggers think it's time to make an article about bitcoin again because people forgot about it

how do more searches 'generate' more articles?
1554  Economy / Speculation / Re: Oh noes !! It's crashing !! Sell ! Sell ! on: January 13, 2012, 11:08:49 PM
I TRUST NO-ONE
1555  Economy / Speculation / Re: Here it comes on: January 13, 2012, 11:06:53 PM

Come to think of it, there is another long term concern with
bitcoin: as the block rewards decrease, it quite unclear that
transaction fees will be enough to sustain a healthy mining
ecosystem. If I had to point at the weakest part of Satoshi's
design, that probably would be it.



this. is there any good literature on what is supposed to happen once we enter the age of transaction fees?
1556  Economy / Speculation / Re: Well guys. The rally is over. on: January 13, 2012, 11:03:19 PM
to me the rally continues since November and no sight yet to indicate the movement is over

this. think long-term guys. the MACD hasn't even crossed the EXP yet, the price seems pretty stable, and we could rally within the week.
1557  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoinica - Security? on: January 13, 2012, 12:46:01 AM
The only securities you need are chastity belt for your daughters. Because zhoutong is young and horny and he is going to be filthy rich in a couple years.

lawl
1558  Economy / Speculation / the insurmountable wall on: January 12, 2012, 02:34:10 PM
we've been testing the resistance at $7.20 for quite some time now. and as i type this message, we are slipping into another downtrend. have we reached the top? i was very bullish when we had the upward momentum but the indicators turned sour today. i got out before the slip, but don't know when to buy back in. are we looking at a reversal or just another short-term correction?
1559  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Possible solution for recovering lost Bitcoin to the "blackhole". on: January 12, 2012, 05:45:25 AM
many things are wrong with this. one of the biggest is that the 'last' bitcoin will never be mined. it's asymptotic.
1560  Economy / Speculation / Re: Google Trends on: January 11, 2012, 01:39:42 PM
The Bitcoin price has always been a good way to determine the future google trends...

this
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