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21  Economy / Speculation / Re: Potential Price Peak at 1-2pm EST 3/31 on: April 01, 2014, 03:46:16 AM
Me thinks that the machine needs to have an asshole so it can pull predictions effectively and free up cpu time for mining

haha i LOL'd Cheesy
22  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Weekly Newsletter Discussion and Analysis on: April 01, 2014, 02:52:56 AM
Just sent you payment for 4 subscriptions, including this last one preferably. Please confirm.

thanks for your support Smiley i just sent you a PM.

--arepo
23  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Weekly Newsletter Discussion and Analysis on: April 01, 2014, 12:36:55 AM
This week's issue was just sent out to the following users:

oda.krell
docile
John999
kramerc
iron77
kwest
jlin
CoinBurner
Aquatic
Blue
Ultros
Roger_Murdock
rushthatspeaks
castle
damdam

enjoy, and happy trading!

--arepo
24  Economy / Speculation / Re: The BIG picture, Price Prediction Chart. on: March 31, 2014, 07:25:58 AM
After looking through this thread it is very conforting but does anyone take into consideration how much negative talk there is in the news about bitcoin lately?

Yes, and you can take that as further comfort, considering the negative talk seemed to increase right before and during the last 2 spikes.

Exactly. Considering how the brother LiteCoin is boiling, the time is near.

this is because Bitcoin holders do not like fiat and have started to buy LTC as they sell off their BTC. the markets have decoupled since yesterday.
25  Economy / Speculation / Re: Potential Price Peak at 1-2pm EST 3/31 on: March 31, 2014, 04:42:26 AM
Can I ask where your getting your ideas from? Please don't tell me your just looking at the past because I realise that's a good idea but there has to be more than that to cause price to go up

he's got a neural-network learning algorithm that he trained on historical price data. pretty awesome and impressive project, but precision doesn't seem to be its thing.
26  Economy / Speculation / Re: The chart says buy at this level. on: March 31, 2014, 04:38:24 AM
"The Chart Says..."

just a friendly reminder that charts don't say anything. some representations of the price and volume data may suggest a conclusion that can be drawn based on specific assumptions, but this conclusion may not follow if the assumptions do not hold.

--arepo
27  Economy / Speculation / Re: Potential Price Peak at 1-2pm EST 3/31 on: March 31, 2014, 04:36:12 AM
Yes, I mean short-term. As in, it being the highest price in the next 24 hours. Seems to have dipped down all of a sudden in the past like 5 min or so though, so idk what this is all about.

price peak has passed. perhaps your algo predicted the bulltrap, but was off by a few hours?
28  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 31, 2014, 04:12:39 AM
what a beautiful bulltrap...

i had a short position at around $450 that i was about to close as it took off, figuring we would make some temporary price gains and i could profit on the way up as well as short from a better price, but as i was strategically placing bids near the bottom support it broke the triangle early and it was not worth closing at a loss. damn shame Cry
29  Economy / Economics / Re: How can I trade? on: March 31, 2014, 03:22:04 AM
Bitcoin itself is a commodity
Bitcoin is money, please don't let the Gov create your reality.   Cheesy

apologies, perhaps i should have said that it "behaves like a commodity", in terms of market price behavior, which was the point i was trying to make.
30  Economy / Economics / Re: How can I trade? on: March 31, 2014, 01:38:25 AM
no, it's quite different. Bitcoin itself is a commodity. i would recommend doing a hell of a lot more research than you've already done before you jump in.. there are plenty of resources to answer all of your questions and ones you didn't even know were important on these forums and the wider internet.

--arepo
31  Economy / Speculation / Re: $300 or $800 next? on: March 31, 2014, 01:10:00 AM
Fundamentals are excellent and if a price of more than 200$ was justified a year ago I don't see how a price of a few times that is not justified now

this is the point of contention, it seems...
32  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin going down? Keep calm and... on: March 30, 2014, 10:45:27 PM
unfortunately, we've already violated this particular pattern with the recent bearish price action. no other pennant has seen its bottom support tested three times, and many mid-term and long-term indicators are showing unprecedented bear signals. it is a decent model, but the present pattern has definitely differentiated itself from past performance in that way. i would think that suggests that the standard bubble resolution paradigm that this image portrays is therefore less applicable to the present price action.

the reason of the second testing of the low @400 USD was gox. it was a flash crash and does not fit in this pattern. All second testing of the bottom was slow. I would say the current testing of the 400 USD area is the second "real" low.

i would actually agree, and was just working with the model presented. my original pennant model, based off of this same pattern, had a lower price support at $530, which was extremely robust (many points of contact) with only two violations that were intraday and which i considered outliers. hence, why the break under this price support on Wednesday was and is very bearish. the market seems to agree, as we have seen steady selling pressure since.
33  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Weekly Newsletter Discussion and Analysis on: March 30, 2014, 09:37:52 PM
I see a spring that is coiling.

 Grin

care to be more explicit? it does seem like we're near a market bottom, unless the price support in my previous post fails (which seems awfully unlikely given the bid support at Bitstamp). but all i've pointed out is that we haven't yet seen quite enough volume for the downtrend from $600 to terminate, based on the two previous capitulation events in the past 5 months.

in the short-term, i see an ascending triangle consolidation pattern forming that will likely terminate with a bulltrap that fails to break out above the moving resistance defining this downtrend:

---
6-hour scale


http://i.imgur.com/8jn5sjB.png

---

granted, this will be an important test, and a decision point to give the market a chance to reverse at these price levels. however, i anticipate that ask depth will steadily fill in during this consolidation and the market will be ready for another move down by the time we reach this resistance.

--arepo
34  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin going down? Keep calm and... on: March 30, 2014, 09:02:16 PM
I like this thread : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=548544.0

it is very optimistic Smiley you should all give a look at this Tongue



unfortunately, we've already violated this particular pattern with the recent bearish price action. no other pennant has seen its bottom support tested three times, and many mid-term and long-term indicators are showing unprecedented bear signals. it is a decent model, but the present pattern has definitely differentiated itself from past performance in that way. i would think that suggests that the standard bubble resolution paradigm that this image portrays is therefore less applicable to the present price action.

--arepo
35  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Weekly Newsletter Discussion and Analysis -- UPDATE on: March 30, 2014, 08:55:38 PM
BREAKOUT! right on schedule Cheesy now we just need some real volume to confirm, and we could see a movement down to an estimated support of $410-$420 within 12 hours.

still following this pattern pretty solidly. we need to see some serious volume before this trend is terminated, and the estimated support in the above quote can be derived from the following extrapolation of the 5-month lows:


http://i.imgur.com/eUJLKeF.png

---

present price action aside, i'd like to remind the general forum that the next issue of my weekly newsletter will be sent out tomorrow morning! if you are panicked or confused because of the recent price action, you may want to consider subscribing. the publication will present a clear and accessible technically-based model for price behavior for the coming week, as well as mid-term projections for how long this bear market could last, and what might be the reason behind the paradigm shift away from the standard bullish bubble resolutions we've seen in the past.

i've updated the pricing tiers in the OP to reflect the publication's end date after the week of 23 June. however, i have not changed the BTC price from when i originally priced it at around 600 BTCUSD, so value-wise i'm offering a 30% discount! Wink

to subscribe, please forward payment to the address in my signature and send me a PM, and i will confirm your subscription in the thread. thanks in advance for your support! remember to keep a cool head in this volatile price environment, and happy trading!

--arepo
36  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 30, 2014, 04:10:17 PM
if the bottom fishers buy now, who will have fiat left when we break below $440? Tongue
37  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 30, 2014, 04:04:10 PM
the spread is unreal right now... ask side so thin that bitstamp's last hour of volume (3.5k BTC) could send the price up to $530! yet the selling pressure is sustained and the buying pressure is absent.
38  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin down Litecoin UP 2014 on: March 30, 2014, 01:48:05 PM
stop buying LTC guise, you're decoupling it from BTC and ruining my whole trading strategy Tongue
39  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 30, 2014, 01:41:41 PM
https://www.tradingview.com/v/7YEmxS3K/

will we break down and enter a huge bear market? Shocked

if we break under that support, then yes, that would be a mid-term bearish signal.
40  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Weekly Newsletter Discussion and Analysis on: March 30, 2014, 01:36:51 PM
What do you think about the huobi chart? The consolidation looks more like a symmetrical triangle rather than a flat-bottom one, in comparison to stamp.

Should we be expecting a violent downward movement today or tomorrow?

triangles can be tricky because they have the nasty habit of breaking out into larger and more complex fractal patterns, instead of the clear textbook breakout, as the market postpones a decision. let me know if my previous post was clear enough to answer your question Wink

--arepo

edit: BREAKOUT! right on schedule Cheesy now we just need some real volume to confirm, and we could see a movement down to an estimated support of $410-$420 within 12 hours.

Yes. Your previous post made sense, and now we've broken out of the following larger triangle. Doom and gloom.

aw, it's not all that bad. you can tell i'm a trader at heart. i love bitcoin, but downtrends are just as profitable as uptrends. in fact, you can make profits denominated in BTC during price losses, so if you hate dirty fiat, that's all the better!

also, markets always swing from overbought to oversold. catch the bottom and you're looking at healthy gains in the next bull market, as well.

--arepo
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