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221  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 11, 2014, 10:20:07 AM

Right. But Houbi did have higher volume on the breakout than on the consolidation. And its leading the markets. Stamp is literally following it lock, step and barrel - move for move. Gox not so much.

So if the leader confirms volume I wonder if that does not indicate a potential more significant bullish move?

ah yes, i see. that is bullish indeed. the decoupling of the markets is a strange and confounding thing, though. i'd say it's certainly less bullish than a proper breakout on gox and stamp, as well. and of course, this is only bullish micro-term, because the bearish wedge is still a possibility, depending on price action today. if we can't break above the resistance we're currently pushing, we could still retest Wednesday's low.
222  Economy / Speculation / Re: Latest Developments Thread on: January 11, 2014, 10:14:16 AM
http://www.psmag.com/navigation/business-economics/bitcoin-crash-never-came-72462/

More positive news. But remember all this positive news probably won't have any effect on prices as many of the experts here say.  Wink

it's clear that you don't actually take the time to read what no one except you is calling an expert opinion, anyway.

news gets priced-in gradually, mostly because not everyone hears about it at precisely the same time, not everybody reacts to it at precisely the same time, and not everybody reacts to it in precisely the same way. this is as simply as i can put it.
223  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 11, 2014, 10:07:38 AM

So, what does it need to "spike" in relation to?

sorry for the lack of context.

===

@BITSTAMP


http://i.imgur.com/tRJqA3p.png

===

in order to confirm a "breakout" from a triangle consolidation pattern, we need to see a volume spike that is at least as large as the largest volume inside of the shape. we still see decreasing volume, which suggests we are still consolidating, meaning that the market still has not decided a direction in which to move. the bearish scenario would be a retest of the $765 low.

i have a feeling this curious low-volume "breakout" has something to do with the fact that we have not broken out of the triangle consolidation pattern on gox yet.

Over the past three weeks time and time again the volume thing has been tripping up those who continue to watch it as if we were back last summer.

i'm going to start calling you T "unsubstantiated claims" Stuart. i think its quite becoming Wink

--arepo
224  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 11, 2014, 09:19:52 AM
we need to see some serious volume either tonight or early morning tomorrow or this "bullish" breakout is looking very bearish indeed...

Can you give some more details to your assessment?

thought i was clear enough, but let me try. even though we broke out of the price range of the triangle consolidation pattern, we didn't see a volume spike. this could be a false breakout, which might suddenly reverse on high volume, or we broke out into a larger consolidation pattern like a rising wedge, which would also be bearish.

basically, unless we see some high volume buying pressure soon, these prices are likely not going to last.

i'm thinking it's a wedge. (diagram slightly outdated)

--arepo
225  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 11, 2014, 05:44:33 AM
we need to see some serious volume either tonight or early morning tomorrow or this "bullish" breakout is looking very bearish indeed...
226  Economy / Speculation / Re: Its going down in a few hours on: January 11, 2014, 05:05:22 AM
I love it when people assume a pricedrop is coming and the opposite happens.

the market moves to minimize traders' profits.
227  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 11, 2014, 03:01:27 AM
Its a one way death trip...won't survive the radiation once they leave the earths protective field.

what are you, from the 1950's? Huh
228  Economy / Speculation / Re: Manipulation dumps are so 2011 on: January 11, 2014, 02:47:50 AM
if you think any large-volume price movement is manipulation, you're going to have a bad time.
229  Economy / Speculation / Re: Consolidating Trend -- A Page From Arepo's Notes on: January 11, 2014, 02:27:58 AM
*sorry to pollute your thread with non-technical stuff, Arepo. I greatly value your work. Thank you.*

no worries, this issue is just about done anyway. by all means, continue the conversation. Smiley

--arepo
230  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 10, 2014, 11:19:22 PM
"We're going up/down in next 8 hours. Nothing happens in next 48 hours.. UPDATE: we stopped going up/down."

i do remember this call now, actually, and i'm still a little puzzled why that particular triangle didn't break out. i've noticed that if the breakout time corresponds with a natural low in volume, like the middle of the night, or the weekend, it can affect the model. i've also come to understand better the stochastic manner in which smaller triangles break into bigger triangles but continue consolidating, a behavior i did not fully understand at the time, and was just beginning to model.

i just tried to go through my posts so i could dig it up for accountability (no one's right 100% of the time Tongue), but i can't seem to find it. i hope my concession here, at least, is enough to make peace with you, seleme, on this matter. i would appreciate it if you didn't hold poor calls i made six months ago against my work now.

--arepo
231  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 10, 2014, 10:58:46 PM
Arepo, that's exactly why I said that you had loads of bullshit calls back in April. You're acting on completely same way despite your new "indicators".

"We're going up/down in next 8 hours. Nothing happens in next 48 hours.. UPDATE: we stopped going up/down."

No shit Sherlock? Cheesy

All you need is o start another service and it's going to be same as April Cheesy

what are you saying?
232  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 10, 2014, 10:51:28 PM
I come to a conclusion that this market is retarded (as in slow) it took it 2 days to react to china news and drop from 1200 and it took a day and a half to react to overstock news

this is someone panic buying, not reaction to overstock.

What the heck?Huh Is this a weekend rise now?

 Grin

i know this seems really strange, but it's just an upwards breakout, right on time Wink

the price goes up, the price goes down -- you can't explain that! /oreilly
233  Economy / Speculation / Re: Its going down in a few hours on: January 10, 2014, 07:12:51 AM



what you think this looks so obvious

the second low is higher than the first low and the first high is even with the second high. this is not the shape in your diagram. your diagram has even lows and a higher high.
234  Economy / Speculation / Re: Consolidating Trend -- A Page From Arepo's Notes on: January 10, 2014, 05:47:35 AM

Two can play at that game! Ockham's Razor demands parsimony. I would take the common sense approach and say that "good news causes the price to jump; bad news causes the price to fall" is sufficient. The fact that this would be "priced in" to a more complicated model is not enough to spare this model from Ockham's Razor - it must be cut loose if the simple fact itself is sufficient. There's some sophistry for you!

As I said before I do respect the effort you put into explaining your work and your work itself, but please don't discount something you perceive as "unscientific" - especially if you claim that it may all be "priced in" already. Incidentally that is what lies at the root of your debate with me. I never criticized your prediction; I just said "whoops look how the news broke the fractal pattern". It was a simple point about news. You could have agreed and added that it was priced in to your model. Agreement across the boundary between science and common sense - nothing wrong with that!  Smiley

PS. Congratulations on predicting this upwards breakout!


"good news causes the price to jump; bad news causes the price to fall" isn't even a workable hypothesis, because of the issues with news perception. you may feel bullish about a certain move, like the Overstock news (anticipating adoption), but its actual effect on the market might be the opposite (Overstock may sell their coins immediately after receiving them, thereby increasing the selling pressure in proportion to its effect on adoption rate). what may seem like "good" news to you is very subjective, to say the least! for instance, i would conjecture that the effect that the conversation around GHash and cex.io is bullish, not a cause for panic, because it is a demonstration of how a decentralised network can spontaneously self-organise in an effort of self-protection. beautiful!

anyway, there seems to be a bit of confusion about the price movement. the upwards move in question was not a breakout, it was part of the triangle pattern. the news didn't break anything.. it didn't even register as a blip in the price, if the price was already expected to move up due to simple consolidating forces. evidence for the news affecting price would have been an actual upwards breakout. what you're calling a 'mini-rally' wasn't even a rally, we've been trapped within tightening bounds for about 2 days now.. Huh i can't quite tell if we're talking past each other at this point. i don't mean to draw anyone into technicalities, i was just challenging the validity of your hypothesis, that news affects price in predictable ways.

PS
Quote from: T.Stuart
Although I must say that I wonder whether you would be as quick to dismiss your own model if your predicted upwards break had been disturbed by a negative news clip from China for example. Please be careful not to slip into sophistry.

i'll be careful not to slip into sophistry if you take care not to assume your own hypothesis Tongue that's some pretty circular reasoning right there.

--arepo
235  Economy / Speculation / Re: Consolidating Trend -- A Page From Arepo's Notes on: January 09, 2014, 10:43:12 PM
Good call, arepo. Let's see what the next days bring.

Ignore the people who think it all reduces to news. News matters, but not in the way they think it does.

i appreciate the advice but i guess i am a compulsive teacher Cheesy

my only hope is that even if my patient explanations don't find their way into T's thick skull ( Tongue ) there are lurkers who are following who might now think twice before buying into the rally-on-news-crash-on-news mania.

--arepo
236  Economy / Speculation / Re: Consolidating Trend -- A Page From Arepo's Notes on: January 09, 2014, 10:27:21 PM
Good call, arepo. Let's see what the next days bring.

Ignore the people who think it all reduces to news. News matters, but not in the way they think it does.

I don't think it all reduces to news at all. If you have a minute or two please explain briefly how it matters in the way you think it does. I would be very grateful for the insight!

so in what way does news matter?

short answer -- we can't know.

good thing is, often, we don't have to know. the market internalizes the information for us.

not sure if you saw the following post, T, but if you parse through what i'm saying i think it might be a profound insight to you.

the situation is difficult to read because it is being influenced by virality and factors difficult to factor into day to day calculations. I have explained this in several posts.

you should read up on the Efficient Market Hypothesis and consider how much of what you claim is externally influencing price may already be contained within the price and volume data itself. if a sufficient amount of such information is somehow contained in the data already, then the data itself is the complete picture. traders, through their actions, factor things like virality and fundamentals into the price data with their every action, so there's no need to develop models as to how these things might affect the price as if they were external to it. i hope that clears some things up.

--arepo
237  Economy / Speculation / Re: Consolidating Trend -- A Page From Arepo's Notes on: January 09, 2014, 10:21:04 PM
My comment wasn't relating to the fractal in particular - like I said I was enjoying watching it form!

It was just to point out that the Overstock news caused a mini-rally and that this news was not caused by trader sentiment, a market move, or anything else.

it's funny that you claim to know for sure what caused the move up. i would take the scientific approach and say that the fractal model is sufficient to predict that the price would move up after such a large volume bounce off of the moving support, and so Occam's Razor encourages me to ignore any other data. it is because of this that i believe market forces win against news every time. in fact, i have empirical evidence to support this claim, while you merely assume that it was the news Tongue

--arepo

You are joking aren't you?  Sad Come on please. If you can't admit simple facts that everyone (including people who can't do maths, geometry, etc.) can see with their own eyes then what's the point?

So it is just a coincidence that the Overstock news came online and minutes later the rally (which is still going well) happened?

i'm guessing you don't have much of a background in science...

let me first point out that correlation does not imply causation, that is, just because it happened "at the same time" does not mean that A caused B or vice versa. cum hoc ergo propter hoc is a logical fallacy.

secondly, even if you value this hypothesis, you need to be able to support it with some kind of evidence. i'm not saying that it is definitely not the case that the Overstock news prompted the "mini-rally", but you seem to be claiming that it definitely is the case, without any supporting evidence whatsoever. this is a problem. if you don't ever second guess your intuition, you'll never realize how often it is wrong...

some things to consider about the limits of our knowledge:

when?: do you think everyone learned about the Overstock news at exactly the same moment? probably not. if it had an effect on price, it was likely "priced-in" a lot more gradually than your claim assumes.

how?: are you sure that the Overstock news should have an immediate bullish influence on the price? perhaps in the long run, because of increased adoption, but in the short run, there are actually some bearish possibilities.

the answers to both of these questions of WHEN and HOW news events and other external forces affect price are mired in the complexities of the market, and are the farthest, farthest cry from "simple facts that everyone can see with their own eyes".

i hope you took a moment to reflect on these important limitations to the claims we can make about price behavior.

--arepo

238  Economy / Speculation / Re: Consolidating Trend -- A Page From Arepo's Notes on: January 09, 2014, 09:58:01 PM
the situation is difficult to read because it is being influenced by virality and factors difficult to factor into day to day calculations. I have explained this in several posts.

you should read up on the Efficient Market Hypothesis and consider how much of what you claim is externally influencing price may already be contained within the price and volume data itself. if a sufficient amount of such information is somehow contained in the data already, then the data itself is the complete picture. traders, through their actions, factor things like virality and fundamentals into the price data with their every action, so there's no need to develop models as to how these things might affect the price as if they were external to it. i hope that clears some things up.

--arepo
239  Economy / Speculation / Re: Consolidating Trend -- A Page From Arepo's Notes on: January 09, 2014, 09:54:44 PM
My comment wasn't relating to the fractal in particular - like I said I was enjoying watching it form!

It was just to point out that the Overstock news caused a mini-rally and that this news was not caused by trader sentiment, a market move, or anything else.

it's funny that you claim to know for sure what caused the move up. i would take the scientific approach and say that the fractal model is sufficient to predict that the price would move up after such a large volume bounce off of the moving support, and so Occam's Razor encourages me to ignore any other data. it is because of this that i believe market forces win against news every time. in fact, i have empirical evidence to support this claim, while you merely assume that it was the news Tongue

Hey Arepo,

Just wanted to say that I appreciate your posts and this thread in particular ... which since I began tracking it, has been extremely accurate.

While I can appreciate his enthusiasm and tend to agree that hodling will yield long term benefit and gain, isn't there value in short term gains in earning some fiat or making the right moves to maximize your btc holdings as well? IDK, I'm just a dumb noob with much to learn.

i appreciate the good words and the accountability! it's good to know that many others are also independently testing my work with positive results.

trading on the scales i have been commenting on in this issue of "Arepo's Notes" is a little hectic, and very risky. the longer time scales you apply these methods to, however, the more likely you will make profits, and this is simply due to the stochastic nature of price movement versus the deterministic rules that govern its internal structure. it is simultaneously a fractal with consistent patterns, and a stochastic function that is impossible to predict with 100% accuracy. on smaller scales it looks like a random walk, but as you zoom out it begins to look like a smooth and continuous function, and on scales in-between you will find consistent nested patterns with startling consistency.

that being said, spotting tops and bottoms is essentially the main way to increase your holdings during longer trends. buying as close to market bottoms as possible to make gains in BTC and selling as close to market tops to make gains in USD both work for me, personally. i do believe in the long-term future of Bitcoin and its heretofore undisturbed infinite bullrun, but trading the swings on all scales is not only lucrative, but also very fun Smiley it's easy to calculate the returns one would make simply holding, and my methods have shown to outperform this benchmark consistently. i would recommend that you pick a simple strategy and test it out for some time period, and then compare your returns to what you would have made simply holding. then divide the amount of hours you spent working with predictive models by the additional gains, and decide whether or not actively trading is a worthwhile strategy for you!

happy trading Wink

--arepo
240  Economy / Speculation / Re: Consolidating Trend -- A Page From Arepo's Notes on: January 09, 2014, 09:17:19 PM
Oops! There goes that fractal!

I guess news does trigger things in some cases.

sorry? i'm not sure what you're trying to say. and please come off it with the news thing... didn't Blitz just demonstrate how that whole thing works in the wall observer thread? haha

What? Was that a post explaining that reports are pre-written and when the price moves published if suiting the movement?

That wouldn't apply in the case of the Overstock news.

Perhaps you mean something else? I haven't been checking the threads so much recently. Been working, you know!  Smiley

no, no, the thing about how news doesn't affect price the way you think it affects price. news affects traders the way traders affect price, i.e. bad news is popular during natural periods of FUD and vice versa -- news can and will be spun according the the emotions of the traders.

what confused me more was your comment about the fractal?

4-hour scale @ bitstamp


http://i.imgur.com/ofOOtcC.png


in my last post i correctly identified a micro-term bottom using the fractal model. "oops there it goes!" makes no sense in this context. Tongue

--arepo
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