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241  Economy / Speculation / Re: Consolidating Trend -- A Page From Arepo's Notes on: January 09, 2014, 08:38:36 PM
Oops! There goes that fractal!

I guess news does trigger things in some cases.

sorry? i'm not sure what you're trying to say. and please come off it with the news thing... didn't Blitz just demonstrate how that whole thing works in the wall observer thread? haha

edit:

love your posts

thanks! always glad to hear this Smiley
242  Economy / Speculation / Re: Consolidating Trend -- A Page From Arepo's Notes on: January 09, 2014, 08:06:32 PM
update!

calling the short-term bottom here -- we will likely not see prices below $859/$765 (gox/stamp) for the next 3 - 5 days*.


just a quick clarification -- 3 - 5 days from 08 Jan, including that day, so we may see a breakout as early as tomorrow.
243  Economy / Speculation / Re: Consolidating Trend -- A Page From Arepo's Notes on: January 09, 2014, 08:01:48 PM
update!

calling the short-term bottom here -- we will likely not see prices below $859/$765 (gox/stamp) for the next 3 - 5 days*.


Any update?

1-day scale @ bitstamp


http://i.imgur.com/eAdJQ6j.png

===

don't worry guys, lots of selling pressure, but the bids keep filling in. as long as we stay within the bounds of the larger 1-day scale ascending triangle, and continue to see decreasing volume, we're still consolidating. no call on the direction of the breakout, yet, but that support is showing incredible strength and i stand by yesterday's call of 3 - 5 days of consolidation from 08 Jan. in other words -- don't panic! the market is still deciding on a direction.

a closer look:

4-hour scale @ bitstamp


http://i.imgur.com/ofOOtcC.png

===

in the last 4-hour period, which has about 8 minutes left, we see a high-volume 'doji' candle (long wicks, small body) associated with large volume. this is a classic reversal candle. on this scale, it corresponds with a bounce off of the moving support of the larger ascending triangle. so long as we don't break below this candle today, the model is sound.

keep in mind that these calls are for swing traders only, and are all micro-term. this 4-hour-scale bounce is not bullish for the coming week, but this selling pressure isn't necessarily bearish either. this is all small-scale fractal behavior within a consolidation pattern within a larger trend.

also, just a note for the curious, since triangle consolidation patterns are fractal patterns, they often have this tendency to break out into larger (longer timeframe) triangle consolidation patterns, finding higher or lower supports each time, so that the final formation can be described as a number of self-similar triangles embedded within one another. in the 4-hour diagram you can see the smaller ascending triangle i was tracking earlier, which did decisively break downwards, but having made a higher low, is forming into the ascending triangle we now see on the 1-day scale. neat, huh? Wink

--arepo
244  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 09, 2014, 06:40:56 PM
Don't like the looks of it, and I don't see that changing very soon. Ergo: (relatively small) re-arrangement of my position complete. Just to let you know, arepo Cheesy

the outcome is still fuzzy short-term, but it doesn't look good for the coming week, that's for sure. i'm still expecting a bearish formation up to $875 +/- $10 on stamp before we break under the short-term bottom, but good call on the most recent move down. it's hard to make intraday calls better than chance, and so my focus is usually on risk management, and while i did take a small loss i quickly recouped it and more with a slight re-arrangement of my position as well Wink

--arepo
245  Economy / Speculation / Re: Ghash.io reached 45% on: January 09, 2014, 06:37:07 PM
I'm not familiar with the mining side of bitcoin and what the implications are, but it's a little disappointing that one group can already gain 51% so early and quickly... when I heard about the 51% attack I thought that group would need an incredible amount of resource to pull that off which made it very unlikely to happen... but it seems like it is more likely to happen than not. Do miners get benefits for being among the pool in the 51%+ group?

i wouldn't call 5 years in "early", and it has nearly happened before. the main problem is that miners currently (and probably forever) are incentivised to join pools for a more reliable mining income, which is simply one tendency towards centralisation, similar to the tendency towards centralised exchanges (goxopoly) in the earlier years. however, i'm confident that the community as it stands today is both knowledgeable and active enough to avoid the possible crisis scenarios by leaving the pool if you are involved, monitoring the blockchain for suspicious transactions, and promoting awareness through various well-trafficked outlets like /r/bitcoin and these forums. we've shown incredible decentralised cooperation in the past and the entire story of the bitcoin project continues to amaze me as a proof of concept of how dishonest or irresponsible actors can be neutralised in decentralised systems far better than in the centralised ones to which we are accustomed.

--arepo
246  Economy / Speculation / Re: Was it Zynga? January In Depth. on: January 09, 2014, 03:07:21 PM
Anyone else getting sick of the clowns at Bloomberg, Business Insider, and Forbes attributing very natural market activity to imaginary catalysts?

http://www.wallstreetcrypto.com/2014/01/was-it-zynga-january-in-depth.html

Stop over at wallstreetcrypto for real analysis from contributors with a real history of involvement in cryptocurrency not jackasses trying to Monday morning quarterback Bitcoin.

Read the blog post before I seen this forum post and it echoed my sentiments exactly.

But this is typical of basically all financial media reporting. The price moves in a direction first, the news to 'explain' that move comes second and a laughable second at that, with the odd notable exceptions of course (China ban).

This is typical though of not just Bitcoin but even the general markets.  Very few people realize most news outlets have pre-prepared news story of why the DOW went down today and why the DOW went up today.  They basically make some minor changes to either story, and boom, here's the "why" the market went up, good earnings, good reporting numbers, etc.

haha the funny thing is, threads like wallwatcher are infected with the same kind of superficial "explain away" attitude which is actually pretty dangerous in its self-assuredness with regards to things like markets...
247  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 09, 2014, 03:05:22 PM
People seem to panic sell now.



if we relieve all of this selling pressure without actually breaking into a new low, this could be a very bullish sign short-term. the volume associated with this move is pretty significant and all it's doing so far is demonstrating the strength of the $860/$780 (gox/stamp) support.
248  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 09, 2014, 02:51:36 PM
that being said, it still isn't clear whether or not the sell-off was "caused" by the news, or merely exacerbated by it.
This "news" would never have been looked at had we been in a strong uptrend. The price affects the perception of the news. We are all ruled by emotion, and so is the market, regardless of news.

i'm aware of this, blitz, and i definitely agree with you. that was rather the point i was making, in response to medialab's idea that the TA is not relevant because all of the volatility is "based on news".

i've been trying to remind the newer folks that the news doesn't affect the price the way they think it affects the price...

--arepo
249  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 09, 2014, 02:28:52 PM
I see the beautiful double bottom and "W" forming




I still see a dinosaur. Everything must be ok then!  Cheesy

How is TA relevant when all of this volatility is based on news?

well if you can't tell that this TA isn't very serious by context, you've got more serious problems than news-panic Wink

that being said, it still isn't clear whether or not the sell-off was "caused" by the news, or merely exacerbated by it.
250  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 09, 2014, 01:44:19 PM
even if the obliviousness of speculators involved in cex.io really does result in a tragedy of the commons scenario, the returns are self-limiting. if they threaten the integrity of the whole project, no one profits, and the scheme collapses. i doubt bitcoin will be utterly destroyed, or even close, at this point, and so the worst that could happen would be a short period of blockchain instability that will be resolved after the panic dissolves the mining majority.
Traders who have spent their whole careers speculating with other people's money don't care about the long term viability of anything.

All they care about is whether they can sell anything they just bought for more than they paid for it. That is literally the only question that exists in their world.

These people can cause a lot of damage. When they're given access to unlimited taxpayer money (overtly or covertly) they can destroy the world's financial system.

Eventually Bitcoin will siphon away their ability to do this, assuming it survives through the short term.

I just signed in to CEX.IO to tell people on chat about the threat, and no wonder that this is happening when people say "Ghash.IO have only 4 terahashs of Ghashs", and " you are spreading FUD to buy Ghs"  holy fuck, they trashed me right away, these people have no Idea what they are doing, if they knew what they were doing they would simply buy a physical miner and mine at home and save half  of what they are paying now!!! but as you said before they don't give a shit, they are just speculators, I can even bet that they even don't understand how the fuck Bitcoin Protocol works...

Oh well. As we approach '51%' levels, BTC price will drop as people panic sell, causing miner stock to drop inevitably, and they'll learn their lesson

doubt we'll get there at all. migrations are already happening if /r/bitcoin is any indication.
251  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 09, 2014, 01:24:10 PM
(1) I see a significant discrepancy between gox and stamp, the former pulling up, the latter down. Have a harder time getting a picture from the other exchanges. (side note: yes, prices are highly correlated, but that doesn't mean a trend cannot form independently first on one exchange before it "infects" another)

both gox and stamp are tracing out the same ascending triangle formation, so i don't think the direction of the small movements within these bounds are very significant, correlated or otherwise.

Quote
(2) volume, money flow and order books, bid/ask don't look good to me. the latter trending slightly down, not strong enough to be sure, but not a positive sign either.

yes, the large volume on the last movement down within the consolidation pattern threw a number of 2-hour indicators bearish, which is of slight concern to me, as it could very well invalidate the model i posted above. it has instilled doubts at the very least and caused me to reevaluate the risk of my position.

Quote
(3) I said it before, but I see stopping the latest drop above the 30d EMA is a very positive sign. I am looking at a (somewhat speculative) uptrend channel as well, and there's a chance we're in it still. That's the good news, IMO.

here i have to disagree with you, in that even though we are resting on this support i think the chances of continuing the uptrend after this are very slim. the larger picture still suggests that we need more capitulation from the bubble pattern before we can really see sustained growth, and this looks very much like a mid-term top formation. if you look a page back or so in this thread, the model im following is actually not bullish at all Cheesy i'm just swing-trading right now and i believe the very next movement is a small breakout up into a bearish wedge.

Quote
(4) With respect to where we are compared to the latest drop, however (on a narrower time frame), I see price pulling down more than up.

interesting! you are bearish short-term, bullish mid-term, and i am just the opposite! i appreciate the dialogue, and i guess we shall see Wink

--arepo
252  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 09, 2014, 12:56:54 PM
GHASH isn't going to sabotage their own reputation and profits -- the incentives just don't line up.
Don't be so sure about that. The problem is Wall Street and the mindset that it has spread.

Right now speculators are buying mining shares on cex.io. They don't care if they are actually overpaying for their shares because they don't give a shit about the NPV of those shares - all they care about is being able to sell higher than the bought (greater fool theory).

A lot of money is being thrown into Bitcoin mining by people who neither know nor care what they are actually doing.

i understand this much, that there are a lot of people who have interests that simply don't intersect the interests of the bitcoin community, who are involved by proxy in this or other ways. what i don't see, is how that would translate into an interest to sabotage the project.

while the ramifications of their actions might set the stage for that particular pool to sabotage the project, there still needs to be a malicious party to actually carry out the act. what you're saying is perhaps we cannot avoid a 51% situation in the short term because the incentives to prevent this are broken, but if GHash won't try to attack the blockchain, while the pool will become a target for anyone who does, i don't think anything terrible will happen immediately, and hopefully the savvy members of the community will have enough time to orchestrate a reorganization of the mining sector.

even if the obliviousness of speculators involved in cex.io really does result in a tragedy of the commons scenario, the returns are self-limiting. if they threaten the integrity of the whole project, no one profits, and the scheme collapses. i doubt bitcoin will be utterly destroyed, or even close, at this point, and so the worst that could happen would be a short period of blockchain instability that will be resolved after the panic dissolves the mining majority.

that being said, i really do not feel i know enough about the technical side of bitcoin to be sure that my understanding is accurate in this case. do the above arguments sound reasonable? from what i understand, we as a community should be able to handle this with little difficulty.

--arepo
253  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 09, 2014, 12:14:33 PM

but now, who knows? right? GHASH COULD BE DOUBLE SPENDING AS WE SPEAK dun dun dunnn...

am i doing it right, guys? the whole panic thing?

lol   Grin

in all seriousness, i do recognize that it's a major issue, but i'm confident in the bitcoin community as a whole and the incentives built into the protocol. there is far too much at stake for miners to really be that oblivious and shortsighted to simply not reorganize themselves in order to SAVE BITCOIN (!), and even if they don't, as many have pointed out, outside of some third-party conspiracy against the project, GHASH isn't going to sabotage their own reputation and profits -- the incentives just don't line up.

that being said, the alternating waves of panic and euphoria in this thread are almost frightening in their magnitude...

--arepo
254  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 09, 2014, 12:00:28 PM
Break out down or up? Anyway. I don't believe in technical analysis. I want to make a bet against your forecast Wink

well, before everybody started flipping a shit, the picture looked like this:

my model predicts:

a) breakout upwards out of the present ascending triangle to the resistance at $875 - $880 (hard to tell because the $875 low on the 12-hour scale looks like an outlier)

b) this breakout will form a bearish wedge, continuing for another 12-hour period

c) bearish wedge will break down and retest the $775 - $780 support

here's a (rough) diagram of the smallest possible range (movements could be $5 to $10 outside of this range without breaking the model):

===

(price @ bitstamp)


http://i.imgur.com/vg9c7Kv.png

===

happy swing trading!

but now, who knows? right? GHASH COULD BE DOUBLE SPENDING AS WE SPEAK dun dun dunnn...

am i doing it right, guys? the whole panic thing?

--arepo
255  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 09, 2014, 11:36:34 AM
everybody stay calm, we're right on track

lawl @ triangle trying to break out on nighttime volume Cheesy

be patient guys, one more tiny swing down then breakout in the morning Wink


http://i.imgur.com/9lQPqF6.png

just tracing out a nice bullish consolidation... see you at the top of the wedge!

--arepo
256  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 09, 2014, 07:22:43 AM

well too much Fiat ? waiting the price to head the direction you desire ?

I guess hubris describe both of us, or maybe I can say most of bitcoiners as well  Cheesy

just trying to anticipate the movement, as usual. i don't care much about which way, especially on these scales. i'm just having fun swing trading, which is much harder to do, by design. it's like quantum mechanics -- the randomness becomes more and more apparent the further in you zoom. Wink
257  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 09, 2014, 07:04:09 AM
good morning guys, what is happening ? the trend broke all charts and expectations !! most of you say that news doesn't effect the trend but neither the charts seems to explain it, so what is going on ? ha ?

bitcoin growth by design....

oh geez the hubris is back.. i guess that explains the buying pressure Tongue
258  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 09, 2014, 06:46:09 AM
im actually surprised by this buying pressure... the triangle is just about out of space on gox and threatening to blow, if there is enough volume.
259  Economy / Speculation / Re: Steady, ever-increasing support for bitcoin price cointinues (with charts) on: January 09, 2014, 06:39:25 AM


haha good job spotting the trend after it's threatening to reverse Tongue this isn't "ever-increasing support" it's a bull run that looks just about over...
260  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 09, 2014, 06:20:00 AM
lawl @ triangle trying to break out on nighttime volume Cheesy

be patient guys, one more tiny swing down then breakout in the morning Wink
Yes I am definitely seeing indications that we'll break to the upside in the short term.

Any targets? I'm looking at $880-$907 Stamp give or take (maybe a bit higher, but my exit points are in that area). I still don't feel we'll be re-testing the highs.

okay, okay, i'll give you my targets, but only because it's such short term Tongue

my model predicts:

a) breakout upwards out of the present ascending triangle to the resistance at $875 - $880 (hard to tell because the $875 low on the 12-hour scale looks like an outlier)

b) this breakout will form a bearish wedge, continuing for another 12-hour period

c) bearish wedge will break down and retest the $775 - $780 support

here's a (rough) diagram of the smallest possible range (movements could be $5 to $10 outside of this range without breaking the model):

===

(price @ bitstamp)


http://i.imgur.com/vg9c7Kv.png

===

happy swing trading!

--arepo

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