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261  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 09, 2014, 05:43:38 AM
lawl @ triangle trying to break out on nighttime volume Cheesy

be patient guys, one more tiny swing down then breakout in the morning Wink
262  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 09, 2014, 03:43:08 AM
The market doesn't wanna make a decision. Some news might make it for it?

forget about the news. we're still trapped in an ascending triangle consolidation pattern. until we break above $950 or below the ascending support, we're not going anywhere. we're running out of space, though... tomorrow should be interesting Wink
263  Economy / Speculation / Re: Automated posting on: January 09, 2014, 02:34:51 AM

they're historical bid/ask spreads with the time axis going into the figure in the perceived third dimension.

are you familiar with 2-dimensional bid/ask spreads?
264  Economy / Speculation / Re: Swing Trading Analysis 1/8/2014 on: January 09, 2014, 01:31:29 AM
Price is likely to remain stuck between resistance at $850 and support at $770 until Monday.  However, drilling down to the lower timeframes shows that a bearish trend could breakout if price gets below $750.  Price would then find support at $690.

we're consolidating very bullishly in an ascending triangle formation just below $850 right now on stamp, and my calculations anticipate a breakout within the next 18 hours, give or take. we still have a lot of volatility to work through after the panic selling we saw yesterday, so i'd be surprised if we stay within that range until Monday.

Breakout up or down?

nothing's for sure, of course, but my money's on up.

edit: i phrased the timing incorrectly, so allow me to clarify. breakout in 18 +/- 9 hours.

of course, i do also see a possible larger consolidation pattern that would coincide with the OP's claim of staying within the range until about Monday, but my model is predicting something a little messier than that. Tongue
265  Economy / Speculation / Re: Swing Trading Analysis 1/8/2014 on: January 09, 2014, 01:26:23 AM
Price is likely to remain stuck between resistance at $850 and support at $770 until Monday.  However, drilling down to the lower timeframes shows that a bearish trend could breakout if price gets below $750.  Price would then find support at $690.

we're consolidating very bullishly in an ascending triangle formation just below $850 right now on stamp, and my calculations anticipate a breakout within the next 18 hours, give or take [edit: in 18 +/- 9 hours]. we still have a lot of volatility to work through after the panic selling we saw yesterday, so i'd be surprised if we stay within that range until Monday.
266  Economy / Speculation / Re: Downtrend started? on: January 08, 2014, 07:42:25 PM
it's actually a very important distinction.
arepo
arepo, no offence meant, but for me it is still hair-splitting

then you're not understanding. there is not even an empirical way to show that bad news causes price to fall, or good news the opposite. the claim that news affects price in this way is indefensible. it's obvious that news affects price in some way, but it is unclear how.

basically, you're positing that you know how news affects price. we both can agree that news does affect price. this is a very, very important distinction.
267  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 08, 2014, 06:43:51 PM
This lack of volatility is pissing me off. When are we going to see a drop below 500?

uh... never? Tongue
268  Economy / Speculation / Re: Downtrend started? on: January 08, 2014, 06:41:41 PM
i never said it doesn't affect prices. i said it doesn't "force in a downtrend".
That`s rabulistic or hair-splitting

it's actually a very important distinction.

what the bad news may have done was turn a natural market correction into a bit of panic-selling, that's all, but there's not even any way of knowing! there's no way to quantify the news' effect on price, and that causes a lot of problems in trying to anticipate it in any real way. the price doesn't respond to news in the binary way you imagined when you used the phrase "force in a downtrend" and that's exactly the point i was trying to make.

--arepo
269  Economy / Speculation / Re: Downtrend started? on: January 08, 2014, 06:24:22 PM
i'm getting reaaaaaaaally tired of saying this but bad news doesn't 'force in a downtrend'. that's simply not how price behavior works.
so you think  News  like
Quote
FBI will sell BTC of the SR Raid
or
Quote
USA will shutdown BTC Exchanges
won`t affect Prices?
Not really,or?

i never said it doesn't affect prices. i said it doesn't "force in a downtrend".
270  Economy / Speculation / Re: UP OR DOWN? That is the question? on: January 08, 2014, 06:23:16 PM

http://i.imgur.com/rUiwfxA.png

we're consolidating again, we're not going to break out of the bounds of the triangle for another (approx.) 12 hours...

also, just a heads up, after that we'll be breaking upwards Wink

--arepo

What makes you say this Arepo?


a fuller argument was presented here yesterday.
271  Economy / Speculation / Re: Downtrend started? on: January 08, 2014, 06:17:54 PM
U would redraw that line everytime.

yes i will but it is in the utmost case a  beginning sideward moving since there are no bad News resulting and forcing in an downtrend


i'm getting reaaaaaaaally tired of saying this but bad news doesn't 'force in a downtrend'. that's simply not how price behavior works.

also, @ roeland, trading on "gut feeling" is a terrible idea that will yield results worse than chance. you will end up lagging sentiment instead of leading it and will be pick-pocketed by every better trader.

272  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Volatility trends are mostly down since 2010. on: January 08, 2014, 06:11:52 PM
Since trading began in 2010, the trend for BTC volatility appears to be downward: http://www.coinometrics.com/bitcoin/bvix.

This is strong evidence that as adoption increases, bitcoin will become less volatile.

is the timeframe long enough, and the error on the slope of the line small enough, that this evidence is even significant?
273  Economy / Speculation / Re: UP OR DOWN? That is the question? on: January 08, 2014, 06:03:50 PM

http://i.imgur.com/rUiwfxA.png

we're consolidating again, we're not going to break out of the bounds of the triangle for another (approx.) 12 hours...

also, just a heads up, after that we'll be breaking upwards Wink

--arepo
274  Economy / Speculation / Re: Crypto's getting pummelled today... on: January 08, 2014, 12:09:47 PM
Any reason why? Hard to believe it's just random volatility.

The most likely reason in my opinion is that TaoBao (the chinese Ebay) is blocking anything related to Crypto.  Also, there's a rumor that the FBI is going to dump their seized Silk Road assets.

http://techcrunch.com/2014/01/07/the-silk-roads-libertas-is-free-to-the-annoyance-of-us-authorities/

However, I think many people believe that is just shoddy reporting and not true at all.  It could still incite some panic though.

the news is only half the story. a few comments on the price environment:

1) it may be hard to believe, but the volatility we are seeing now is still related to the December crash. it takes some time for the market to work through the oscillations that such a huge disturbance causes.

2) the volatility in the last 10 or so days is also marking the end of a nearly 20-day uptrend, and this is a normal market correction (i know it seems steep but remember we were at $600 around three weeks ago!)

--arepo
275  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 08, 2014, 12:04:03 PM
What goes up must come down , too many green candles at once not good.

So far the back end of the "bubble" has confused the hell out of the experts. My guess, more surprises to come!  Smiley

i don't know about you, but i've been able to play this market pretty damn well, and i'm a complete fool Tongue

that being said, i'm sure the real experts, that is the ones who have no need to post here at all, are more than fine.
276  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 08, 2014, 06:27:38 AM
i just want to thank everybody involved in this thread for contributing to my sentiment measurements. you're all so honest and excitable and treat wall-watching like a true sport.

And I'd like to thank you for your TA, which is completely useless for everything other than sounding like a pretentious prick.

xD that was a really good one.. thanks for giving me a good laugh at myself haha

i have to admit that the post you quoted was a little sarcastic Tongue
277  Economy / Speculation / Re: UP OR DOWN? That is the question? on: January 08, 2014, 06:23:57 AM
We are going up. Don't ever watch short term btc charts unless you are a day trader. Open a chart to see at least 2 months and you'll see what I'm talking about,
I prefer the all-time log chart. It is my pillar of strength during times of uncertainty.
That's interesting. Would you, at the time, have also drawn strength out of the following alltime log chart?



Probably, although it's hard to say objectively because I didn't learn about Bitcoin until about a year ago. .

Unless I'd thought that Bitcoin was failing, the crash from the Jun 2011 would have seemed no further off the mean than its peak was and would indicate an eventual return, as exponential growth is inherent with Bitcoin until adoption tapers off.

the problem being, that no one knew that the bolded was true. that was only demonstrated to be true in the years following.
278  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 08, 2014, 06:18:57 AM
i just want to thank everybody involved in this thread for contributing to my sentiment measurements. you're all so honest and excitable and treat wall-watching like a true sport.
279  Economy / Speculation / Re: Consolidating Trend -- A Page From Arepo's Notes on: January 08, 2014, 05:55:48 AM
I agree the volume is all we really have and good to know you use that as main weight,  I'll go back and read up your earlier work

I did notice the ascending triangles forming that broke us out of that previous downtrend and led us into the 700s.  But these can be like constellations where we kinda see what we want to see most times

triangle consolidation patterns, or oscillation patterns, are actually extremely common on all scales. i'm not surprised you noticed a few amongst all this volatility. unfortunately, since these patterns exhibit upwards breakouts and downwards breakouts rather chaotically, simply spotting one doesn't tell you much about price direction. combined with other methods that do, however, spotting and measuring these shapes can help you anticipate the timing of a large price movement in either direction, which is obviously a useful trick for speculators Wink

--arepo
280  Economy / Speculation / Re: Consolidating Trend -- A Page From Arepo's Notes on: January 08, 2014, 05:50:39 AM
update!

calling the short-term bottom here -- we will likely not see prices below $859/$765 (gox/stamp) for the next 3 - 5 days*.

===

10-day hourly scale @ BITSTAMP


http://i.imgur.com/Tl3IZlp.png
price plot for reference

===

1) the amplitude of oscillations in the Chaikin Oscillator is correlated with price volatility. since peaking price volatility is a reversal signal, an increasing range in these data can indicate trend exhaustion.

2) we can look at the volume data as well, keeping in mind that peaking volume is also a reversal signal. the 1-day red candle that was Monday, 06 Jan 2014, UT, had the largest daily volume in the past 18 days.

--arepo

*timescale based on a predictive fractal model of the 10-day price

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