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281  Economy / Speculation / Re: Consolidating Trend -- A Page From Arepo's Notes on: January 08, 2014, 05:10:33 AM
Charts on bitcoin exchanges is fun and I got roped into them for a while but all these hours would be best spent finding out the inflows/outflows of BTC & fiat per exchange on an hourly basis.

i hear what you mean. i find a lot of the trappings of the trader universe like emas, donchian channels, and marking a chart up with every possible fibonacci retracement to be a little distracting.

i work with a small set of classic indicators including the ones presented in the OP, as well as volume data, and fractal analysis, which is related to Elliot's wave model. fractal analysis attempts to find consistent patterns in the price function which can be used to better understand the "price environment". these patterns include triangle consolidation patterns, double-tops, cusp-tops, and bubble patterns (oscillation model). as for classic indicators, i find that the best indicators are the ones that incorporate volume heavily into the algorithm, because volume is one step closer to the inflow/outflow data you talk about.

and while i'm sure that these data would be a useful indicator in some sense (i'd expect it to look like a transformation of the mass index, peaking at times of of market uncertainty and reversals, correlating with peak in- and outflow), i think actual trade volume is far more important. i have often said that the only two important sets of data are the price function and the volume. i treat these data alone with a scientific approach and strive towards the simplest models that are effective at anticipating price behavior.

that being said, i have found empirically that they have "yielded returns better than chance during the time period which i have employed them". the problem of induction, of course, forces me to consider that this may simply be due to chance Wink so i'm not claiming any superpowers here regarding predicting what is an inherently stochastic function, the price function.

--arepo
282  Economy / Speculation / Re: Consolidating Trend -- A Page From Arepo's Notes on: January 07, 2014, 11:07:18 PM

I'm interested in your target price for capitulation. Would you say that the coming high volume capitulation would have us at lower lows?

i'm sorry, but i can't give out specific price targets for free, but i can quote you this:

so that's where we're headed now. bumpy consolidation into a final capitulation event, and then we can finally be done with the craziness of the December crash. however, if the bubble paradigm we've seen so many times before holds we will not see sub $450 and we will likely not see sub $600.
283  Economy / Speculation / Re: Consolidating Trend -- A Page From Arepo's Notes on: January 07, 2014, 09:13:56 PM
I'll make a donation to you arepo if I profit, at this time I'm happy setting my own price targets, but your comments have been helpful as always..

ah Michael! it's nice to see you around these parts again Smiley i appreciate your support, as always, and i hope my work helps you profit, indeed. i think i'm about done with this issue of "Arepo's Notes" but keep an eye out for the next one!
284  Economy / Speculation / Re: bitstamp price tickers on: January 07, 2014, 08:57:27 PM
Hey arepo, just to ask because I haven't seen you post a chart with it yet, but have you seen trading view yet? For me atm, tv and btwisdom are the perfect combo. You'll love the range of studies on tv.

https://www.tradingview.com

i appreciate this a lot and will definitely check it out. i think the main reason i've been avoiding it is because i don't use Elliot Wave analysis at all. not that i don't think it's effective if done properly (i modeled my own "fractal analysis" off of its principles), but i don't trust myself to do it properly and it is too prone to pareidolia Wink

--arepo

pareidolia - Now that's a word every trader should have in their book!

Elliot is a strange beast, very trusted by many traders, yet as easy to explain as why fib's show up so often. Tho, trading view is about way more than elliot, every study you could ask for, a scripting tool so you can write your own indicator, and many ways to display your chart data. Best of all and the reason I mention it to you is that it would allow you to share your ideas easier than I've seen with your use of bitcoincharts so hope it helps.

yes i've been playing around with it since you've pointed it out and it seems quite powerful in its capabilities. thanks again! Smiley

--arepo
285  Economy / Speculation / Re: Consolidating Trend -- A Page From Arepo's Notes on: January 07, 2014, 08:55:08 PM

Frankly I think that's a bit steep! We have to pay you to be more specific? But you put plenty of effort - must be hours every week on here not to mention the calculations - into reporting impending capitulations and then we ask questions and have to pay?

This is a one-off test of your methods. Rise to the challenge. You have called me out before for not explaining my position better. I have tried - and spent time doing so (time writing is money for me as it's my profession!) - but never asked anyone for anything or even put an address for donations. This is a chat forum!


0.08 BTC is only steep if you're the only one who wants the information, which is what it seems like at this point, unfortunately.

Quote
But you put plenty of effort - must be hours every week on here not to mention the calculations...

you've got it! i work almost 12 hours a day and the pitiful part is that i don't have enough spare capital to do this for a living. i donate my time and effort all the while working under contract with someone else's capital. i hope by the end of this i will have enough to do it on my own, but for the time being i have to beg, because i have bills to pay, and frankly i spend way too much time doing this for what's actually going into my pocket Tongue

Quote
This is a one-off test of your methods.

my methods were thoroughly tested throughout this, and many other posts. i know that you are a bit new to this but price targets are generally only given through subscription services and other paid means. this is in part because of the game-theoretic complications the information asymmetry causes. if you were asking any other kind of question, i probably would not have proposed a bounty. further, im not just releasing this information to you, im releasing it to the entire forum. if 8 people want the price target, it'll only cost you 0.01 BTC each, a sum which you should easily be able to make back if the information is accurate.

if you really just want to "test" my methods, i'd be happy to pm you, personally, the answers to your questions for an amount which we can settle. what is this information worth to you, my friend?
286  Economy / Speculation / Re: Consolidating Trend -- A Page From Arepo's Notes on: January 07, 2014, 08:38:18 PM

so that's where we're headed now. bumpy consolidation into a final capitulation event, and then we can finally be done with the craziness of the December crash. however, if the bubble paradigm we've seen so many times before holds we will not see sub $450 and we will likely not see sub $600.

Arepo - excuse my wish for precise figures but can you please give me a target I can quote you on?

You know where I stand!
That's a bit unreasonable. That's a pretty specific range for a bottom.

those are just lower bounds. i do have a much more specific target. i can answer the questions "What is the target price for capitulation? What is the expected timeframe? and What price action would invalidate this model?" if i can raise the bounty described in my previous post. i hope this arrangement seems reasonable. i really can't just go around posting my notes in their entirety on a public forum Cheesy

forum members who are interested can feel free use this thread to make pledges so that a number of individuals can contribute small amounts but be confident that the bounty will be reached and the information will be released.

--arepo
287  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 07, 2014, 08:32:32 PM

yeah, the newbs need to stop going around finding news to justify price movements. market forces are generally much more powerful on the mid-term scale anyway. what we're seeing is a healthy mid-term correction to a very large bulltrap. this shouldn't be news to anyone, although i know many didn't believe it when it was mentioned on the way up.

--arepo

Arepo at what price and for how many days does this apparent downtrend have to continue until the "very large bulltrap" is healthily corrected (I mean it's got to be to a minimum of touching what, $650 or something and overall last a couple of weeks minimum right?) ? Please can you be specific so we can see your method at work. I will be the first to congratulate you when we see the results.

+1

Haven't followed him up recently but Arepo had lot of bullshit calls back in April.

April-May of this past year? that was when my methods finally started working consistently Tongue i wrote up a price report to great avail and my customers were very satisfied. i, myself, made 350% returns during the course of that period.

i will concede that my work before that time period was very error-prone, however. i've been following bitcoin for 2.5 years and have been improving steadily along the way. do you have any specific qualms about my current analysis?

yep, 2013.

I haven't checked that one and I'm not really big fan of TA, just remember you had lot of wrong calls in short term analysis though being as confident as today Cheesy

having been around for so long, i think you might be remembering when i was a bear around October-November 2012, in the runup to the April bubble. that was a particularly wrong call, but then again i have learned a lot since then. not meaning to be confrontational, but when you make claims like the one you just did the onus probandi is on you, and i'd appreciate it if you at least linked to some of my allegedly questionable work. i'm certainly not going to go digging just to defend my reputation from an offhanded comment..

not even that being wrong invalidates one's trustworthiness. showing a resistance to learning from one's mistakes is another story.

--arepo
288  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 07, 2014, 08:28:43 PM

In my opinion, for this to be a "bull trap" and not a continuation of the upward rally from October, prices need to go below 380. Right??!! Otherwise this correction down from 1240 was a bear trap.

semantic arguments aside, i only call it a bulltrap because it is clear that the recent price gains were unsustainable and liable to be retraced in the coming weeks.

600s is not a retracement!! That's my point. 380 is a retracement. That is a HUGE difference.

well i apologize for the miscommunication then, it is a matter of different time scales.
289  Economy / Speculation / Re: Consolidating Trend -- A Page From Arepo's Notes on: January 07, 2014, 08:25:11 PM
How long until we reach the bottom of the correction you are proposing?
What price will be the low in your opinion?
What would it take for you to accept that the current situation is not in fact the correction you are proposing? What are the odds of this eventuality?

Of course you cannot give 100% precise figures. But I would like something I can quote you on if possible. This is not to beat you at any game, but rather because I think that as someone who practises a science that many would feel they must follow if they have no experience themselves, I think you should be happy to be accountable for your predictions.

Thanks,

Stuart

no issues with accountability, of course; some issues with your request. you see, posting price targets creates a confounding effect that, if enough people know about and "trust" a specific target, and trade according to their best possible actions, the Nash Equilibrium will necessarily invalidate that target as players try to undercut each other for better and better prices. for this reason i usually only provide them in private or in limited release paid reports.

that being said, i'll make an exception in this case, in part because i think many still don't put much stock in my work. also, i'm just going to give you direct answers to your questions and not go into the methods i used to arrive upon these answers. however, i will be suffering an information loss at the hands of the forum, so i propose a bounty.

if i can raise 0.1 BTC by the end of today at the address in my signature, i will post the direct answers. there's already 0.02 in there, so only 0.08 to go!

--arepo


290  Economy / Speculation / Re: bitstamp price tickers on: January 07, 2014, 08:07:31 PM
Hey arepo, just to ask because I haven't seen you post a chart with it yet, but have you seen trading view yet? For me atm, tv and btwisdom are the perfect combo. You'll love the range of studies on tv.

https://www.tradingview.com

i appreciate this a lot and will definitely check it out. i think the main reason i've been avoiding it is because i don't use Elliot Wave analysis at all. not that i don't think it's effective if done properly (i modeled my own "fractal analysis" off of its principles), but i don't trust myself to do it properly and it is too prone to pareidolia Wink

--arepo
291  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 07, 2014, 08:02:34 PM

In my opinion, for this to be a "bull trap" and not a continuation of the upward rally from October, prices need to go below 380. Right??!! Otherwise this correction down from 1240 was a bear trap.

semantic arguments aside, i only call it a bulltrap because it is clear that the recent price gains were unsustainable and liable to be retraced in the coming weeks.
292  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 07, 2014, 08:00:37 PM

yeah, the newbs need to stop going around finding news to justify price movements. market forces are generally much more powerful on the mid-term scale anyway. what we're seeing is a healthy mid-term correction to a very large bulltrap. this shouldn't be news to anyone, although i know many didn't believe it when it was mentioned on the way up.

--arepo

Arepo at what price and for how many days does this apparent downtrend have to continue until the "very large bulltrap" is healthily corrected (I mean it's got to be to a minimum of touching what, $650 or something and overall last a couple of weeks minimum right?) ? Please can you be specific so we can see your method at work. I will be the first to congratulate you when we see the results.

+1

Haven't followed him up recently but Arepo had lot of bullshit calls back in April.

April-May of this past year? that was when my methods finally started working consistently Tongue i wrote up a price report to great avail and my customers were very satisfied. i, myself, made 350% returns during the course of that period.

i will concede that my work before that time period was very error-prone, however. i've been following bitcoin for 2.5 years and have been improving steadily along the way. do you have any specific qualms about my current analysis?
293  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 07, 2014, 07:57:53 PM

yeah, the newbs need to stop going around finding news to justify price movements. market forces are generally much more powerful on the mid-term scale anyway. what we're seeing is a healthy mid-term correction to a very large bulltrap. this shouldn't be news to anyone, although i know many didn't believe it when it was mentioned on the way up.

--arepo

Arepo at what price and for how many days does this apparent downtrend have to continue until the "very large bulltrap" is healthily corrected (I mean it's got to be to a minimum of touching what, $650 or something and overall last a couple of weeks minimum right?) ? Please can you be specific so we can see your method at work. I will be the first to congratulate you when we see the results.

haha it's a little trickier than that, but as i have posted elsewhere, if the bubble paradigm holds then we will definitely see prices no lower than $450 and likely see prices no lower than $600.
294  Economy / Speculation / Re: Consolidating Trend -- A Page From Arepo's Notes on: January 07, 2014, 07:54:22 PM
so as the price is, for the most part, playing out the model i presented in the OP and follow-up commentary, i hope my work has helped everyone learn, anticipate, and profit! if you did any of these three, help keep it free Wink and let me know how much you think it's worth.

thanks for the support!

--arepo
295  Economy / Speculation / Re: Consolidating Trend -- A Page From Arepo's Notes on: January 07, 2014, 07:49:09 PM

Interesting situation. Bitstamp looking quite a bit more bearish than mtgox. Both are mostly in a state of suspension though, for now.

Let's assume downward breakout today, or over the next few days. Which to me looks slightly more likely right now than the alternative of resuming the 2 week uptrend... Maybe some price targets? If we do in fact go down with some force, but fin support in the 30d EMA (right now @~830 mtgox) I'd take that as a very strong bullish signal for the near future.

Say we break through it though. We have 2 post-ATH lows, 590 and 460. Obviously, should we fall below 460 all bets are off. Staying above both of them, on the other hand will give some confidence we've seen the capitulation bottom. Not a signal for a big rally, but slowly upwards moving consolidation probably.

In any case, until we actually close under the 6h EMA30, I'm not even going to get active. Not a single downtrend came into motion without that happening first in the last 2 months or so. Until then, I'll sit tight Cheesy (note however that I aim to trade only the medium/large swings, and let most smaller ones slide)

speaking of capitulation,


In your opinion, what is the chance of a final big crash to 600, 500 levels happening within this month before the stabilization of price?
Its will be highly improbable of any fall this month,if market remains above 775 level till 5 jan, although there is a small window for falling below/to 648 level around 20-21 january 2014.

my models similarly predict another high-volume capitulation in about 3 weeks.

Erm... excuse me but are you really trying to tell us that you can predict that in 3 weeks from now there is going to be a high-volume dumping session? Come on, that's stretching it much too far. No amount of analysis can tell you that in this market.

But I suppose 3 weeks does give you quite a long period of time in which to hope for some kind of downtrend (although I have a strong sneaking suspicion the "final capitulation" scenario some buyers are waiting for is never going to happen).

you'd be surprised. i would post the models but im afraid i would be giving away far too much information.

--arepo

hint: the price function is self-similar on all scales like a fractal. zoom out and apply the same methods you do to make short-term calls, and voila! is that really a strange concept?

so that's where we're headed now. bumpy consolidation into a final capitulation event, and then we can finally be done with the craziness of the December crash. however, if the bubble paradigm we've seen so many times before holds we will not see sub $450 and we will likely not see sub $600.
296  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: January 07, 2014, 07:36:43 PM


I don't make trading decisions based on news )) Never, ever. News follow waves, not visa versa.

No  mystery here. TA and observance.

edit: is there an unanimous conscensus about what is going on right now? i mean, since OP has not returned yet, still bear market bottoming down to 350-400$?
oh and thx for the nice thread Smiley

i am also in this camp. news affects price, but market forces affect price more, and affect price more quantifiably and predictably.

also, unless the bubble paradigm that we've seen so many times over is invalidated this time around, we will definitely not see prices lower than $450, and we will likely not see prices lower than $600.

--arepo
297  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 07, 2014, 07:34:37 PM

For anyone who hasn't seen the reason for this flash-crash.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=403499.new#new

Is there anything new in that 'news'? Isn't it the same situation as announced in December just clarified?

I didn't see a flash crash, I saw a correction.

I suppose we'll all know in 24hrs.

yeah, the newbs need to stop going around finding news to justify price movements. market forces are generally much more powerful on the mid-term scale anyway. what we're seeing is a healthy mid-term correction to a very large bulltrap. this shouldn't be news to anyone, although i know many didn't believe it when it was mentioned on the way up.

Speaking of bad news. Does anyone know the best way to get the fastest news that could relate to btc price? Seems like i am always late to the party.

don't worry about it. this is an illusion generated by forumites trying to justify movements after-the-fact with news.

--arepo
298  Economy / Speculation / Re: Downtrend started? on: January 07, 2014, 02:22:02 PM
perma bulls, still convinced this is just a correction?  Roll Eyes
Yes !


The green ascending Line is the a possible mid-term upwards-trend. Not been broken yet

we'll see... Lips sealed
299  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 07, 2014, 02:20:41 PM
6h and 4h StochRSI looks bad, altho not sure how good is it for predicting the future Cheesy

i'm not sure either. they look bad because what just happened was bad. there was prior warning though.

There was also this:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=397534.0

1. So far we have popped up as stated would happen.

2. And we have come back down to around the green line as stated would happen.

3. Now I believe we will ride just above the green line following its trend but likely pop up again in the days to come.

haven't we broken below your green "trend" line, anyway?
300  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 07, 2014, 02:02:57 PM
6h and 4h StochRSI looks bad, altho not sure how good is it for predicting the future Cheesy
No, it Looks good.Because we are oversold now and buying should beginn

not after all of that time spent in the overbought zone. we'll likely "double-dip". generally speaking, a crossover of the midline is also an important signal for oscillators.
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