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301  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 07, 2014, 02:01:25 PM

Arepo can I ask in all seriousness... do you have a technical term for this kind of pattern?



it is sinusoidal. not necessary a technical name from the trading world, but it can be modeled with the sine function. why do you ask? it is rather pretty isn't it? Wink
302  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 07, 2014, 01:59:17 PM
6h and 4h StochRSI looks bad, altho not sure how good is it for predicting the future Cheesy

i'm not sure either. they look bad because what just happened was bad. there was prior warning though.
303  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 07, 2014, 01:44:45 PM
Anyone knows about that new china taobao crypto ban? Could it be the cause?

no.

guys... this is what happens when we go parabolic above a trendline after a bubble. the same thing happened in April-May.

i hope all of the newer traders who were confused as to why i was unsettled by this weekends rally, and the multiple warnings of "we'll pay for this later" understand now.
we will pay ?? to hell with that, it is great show, popcorn ready


+1  Grin

haha you're obviously not a merchant trying to actually use bitcoin as a currency, or anything like that Tongue

like i said, sometimes i believe the crap about speculators being good for a market, but then again this bullshit happens with frightening regularity...
304  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 07, 2014, 01:37:48 PM
Anyone knows about that new china taobao crypto ban? Could it be the cause?

no.

guys... this is what happens when we go parabolic above a trendline after a bubble. the same thing happened in April-May.

i hope all of the newer traders who were confused as to why i was unsettled by this weekends rally, and the multiple warnings of "we'll pay for this later" understand now.
305  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 07, 2014, 01:17:36 PM
welp the bottom fell right out of that one
306  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 07, 2014, 01:15:54 PM
prolly bots selling on macd crossing signals : D

maybe. we just got a bearish crossover on 6-hour stamp data.
307  Economy / Speculation / Re: Downtrend started? on: January 07, 2014, 12:54:00 PM
Because MtGox SWIFT withdrawals do not work, mtgoxUSD trades consistently higher than bitstampUSD (the mtgoxUSD is devalued). Sometimes, this price difference temporarily spikes up, sometimes it spikes down, for no good reason really.

but that's not satisfying at all, blitz. why should this ever happen? the price differential makes sense to me, but not decoupling of trends.

People eager to cash out go to Stamp, When they want to cash out, maybe they are more prone to panic selling.

yes i was thinking something like this. why even bother selling on gox? that is so absurd though it invalidates gox data by a serious degree...
308  Economy / Speculation / Re: Downtrend started? on: January 07, 2014, 12:51:03 PM
Because MtGox SWIFT withdrawals do not work, mtgoxUSD trades consistently higher than bitstampUSD (the mtgoxUSD is devalued). Sometimes, this price difference temporarily spikes up, sometimes it spikes down, for no good reason really.

but that's not satisfying at all, blitz. why should this ever happen? the price differential makes sense to me, but not decoupling of trends.
309  Economy / Speculation / Re: Downtrend started? on: January 07, 2014, 12:48:36 PM
critical support on bitstamp ($875) decisisvely breached. next stop, $863, then, bear market.

gox and stamp decoupled again Huh gox consolidation pattern not even knocking on its own floor...

Arepo, since you make a lot of informative quality posts, what could be reasons for this decoupling? Manipulation?
(sorry if this is a noob question, only trying to get informed Smiley )

haha thanks but that doesn't really make me a 'trusted source' or anything of the like. i would recommend you thoroughly fact-check anything anyone says on these forums.

that being said, i have absolutely no clue Tongue perhaps the consolidation price at gox is lower compared to the bottom support so even though it isn't straying far it is actually threatening to break down, as well. bitstamp is really taking a tumble though it doesn't really add up...

i would trust bitstamp over gox, though, at this point. last night's shut-down-in-the-middle-of-the-night-time-dump was realllly suspicious.

--arepo
310  Economy / Speculation / Re: when will be the next bitcoin drop on: January 07, 2014, 12:38:24 PM
so...

is the price going to go up and stay there?

or we are going to see another drop to 500$?

what do you think?

neither Grin
311  Economy / Speculation / Re: Downtrend started? on: January 07, 2014, 12:34:56 PM
critical support on bitstamp ($875) decisisvely breached. next stop, $863, then, bear market.

gox and stamp decoupled again Huh gox consolidation pattern not even knocking on its own floor...
312  Economy / Speculation / Re: Consolidating Trend -- A Page From Arepo's Notes on: January 07, 2014, 12:27:21 PM
s'all about natural systems  Wink

true that Wink

Quote
... I think most will be waiting to buy lower or when it's a bit more stable....

yes, but will anyone be selling? that is the key. if the HODLers hold and the fearful watch, then we will consolidate sideways and not slip into a bear market. the steady underlying buying pressure will buoy us along with the trend, and we will reach Sunday's peak in a couple of days. we need to see some renewed selling pressure today to break us out of this consolidation pattern and into a real mid-term correction.

--arepo
313  Economy / Speculation / Re: Downtrend started? on: January 07, 2014, 08:09:19 AM

ok, the four year log chart looks amazingly consistent, but not very useful for day trading or even weekly trading. I gauge the market with fundamental analysis more than technical.

ah! but do the fundamentals change on a weekly basis? and even news events -- how do you quantify their effect on price? for instance, how do you measure whether a particular piece of news has a positive or negative effect on market sentiment? it is not really empirical to use your own reaction for this.

The four year log chart is all I need. if it goes down too much, I buy a little. If it goes up too fast, I sell a little. I only buy with money from previous sell orders and never sell more than the percentage of the price gain. no prediction necessary except an upward price bias.

so you're saying that daytrading fares little better than chance? if so, i can respect that, because it is the opposite conclusion of most who use technical analysis. what i hate most is the naysayers who still try to daytrade based on what? gut feeling? i don't even know. but the price is either a random walk, or it exhibits nonrandom behavior which can be exploited for profit. there is little in-between...

--arepo
314  Economy / Speculation / Re: Confidence then, confidence now! on: January 07, 2014, 08:05:22 AM
Thought this might need its own thread. Discuss!!  Wink

Confidence then, confidence now

[snip]

this is the third time in the past hour you've made this same post almost verbatim... methinks he doth protest too much

tell me, T, are you losing confidence? Cheesy

don't worry, just HODL and this whole thing will blow over in like a week. markets correct, though, they have to.

--arepo
315  Economy / Speculation / Re: does anyone notice there are less coins to sell due to mass hodl? on: January 07, 2014, 07:48:48 AM
quantum leap

while the rest of your post was surprisingly good, besides a few (citation needed) moments, i just want to let you know that no one with a background in physics will ever take you seriously so long as you use this phrase Tongue

It is a figure of speech. Arepo I think coming down to meet the common man might help you more in the weeks and months to come!

haha i do appreciate the perspective -- but look! even the "common man" is teasing you for it  Tongue

It is easy to see that confidence is taking a quantum leap forward in comparison with the past.

Sounds like we're going way beyond the moon. We're going to travel through time.
316  Economy / Speculation / Re: Downtrend started? on: January 07, 2014, 07:47:16 AM

Price history is not irrelevant but if you only look at things on an hourly level you are doing things in an insane fashion.


i know it seems insane, but during tense "decision points" where the market decides whether or not to break a multi-week trendline, a 2-hour breakout can signal a reversal on larger scales. Wink
317  Economy / Speculation / Re: Downtrend started? on: January 07, 2014, 07:45:40 AM

ok, the four year log chart looks amazingly consistent, but not very useful for day trading or even weekly trading. I gauge the market with fundamental analysis more than technical.

ah! but do the fundamentals change on a weekly basis? and even news events -- how do you quantify their effect on price? for instance, how do you measure whether a particular piece of news has a positive or negative effect on market sentiment? it is not really empirical to use your own reaction for this.
318  Economy / Speculation / Re: does anyone notice there are less coins to sell due to mass hodl? on: January 07, 2014, 07:38:58 AM
quantum leap

while the rest of your post was surprisingly good, besides a few (citation needed) moments, i just want to let you know that no one with a background in physics will ever take you seriously so long as you use this phrase Tongue
319  Economy / Speculation / Re: Downtrend started? on: January 07, 2014, 07:32:35 AM

I'm talking about the TA tea readers. They remind me of that crazy guy in A Beautiful Mind who saw patterns in random data noise. every movement fits a pattern after the fact, but that's not very useful for predictions.  

well, how do you gauge the market then? not using patterns of any sort, oh no, i'm sure Tongue price history is completely irrelevant right?
320  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 07, 2014, 07:30:19 AM
Stop spreading FUD.

There was no hack or some other strange thing, it was just a huge market maker bot burning some money to clear and reshape his range of the orderbook:


This caused a spike in traffic and maybe killed the http API.
The websocket API was working all the time (60s lag though).

Very interesting.

That's blindly optimistic.

Truth is, whatever the reason was, we cannot have exchanges switching off on 500 sells.

That's bad and someone will end up getting burnt goxed.

ohhhh gox has been goxing along for quite some time now.. the only option is to get out.
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