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41  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 30, 2014, 01:31:59 PM
I wasn't looking at charts from more than 24h -- and I must say it is not so baaad Smiley not very good ... but situation is under control IMO Smiley

It may soon get out of control if those long bfx margin calls start triggering.

anyone who went long after the $530 breach is paying too much attention to "fundamentals" and not enough attention to technicals, imho

edit: @billyjoeallen, stats say many more longs than shorts
42  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 30, 2014, 01:30:19 PM
It's not big difference on litecoin than it was 3 days ago, 30-40 cents.

my position is older than that. also, profits are proportional to percentage change. litecoin volatility has consistently been larger with respect to the base price on most days. i think it might still follow when huobi decides to...

in other news, the bidwall at stamp is trying to look super menacing, but until the buying pressure seriously picks up this slow grind is bound to continue.
43  Economy / Speculation / Re: [Cosmopolis] Prepare for Bitcoin $266 Retest on: March 30, 2014, 01:22:17 PM
you come off as an overinflated buffoon, but you may just be close in your predictions, again Roll Eyes
44  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 30, 2014, 01:20:38 PM
Wow hard times! This time it really must be the end!
Not...

No, this time is for real

it's neither, but with all the wannabe HODLers who bought in the past 4 months and have seen serious losses, and denial from folks like underdog, we're in for a loooooong squeeeeze.

and that's different to previous situations, how?
BTW, what's looooooong for you?

haha i just meant a long squeeze. like, longs covering their position on the way down, exacerbating the trend.

i did also mean that this could be the tail end of a short-term downtrend and not play out in a massive capitulation event like in the past. a few indicators are showing unprecedented bearish signals, that is, unprecedented in bitcoin price history for this point in the bubble recovery cycle. so this time will likely be a little different than in the past, but certainly not the death of bitcoin Cheesy

i am a little sad though, because i thought i could profit more from this movement in the litecoin market, but of course it picks now to decouple! i suppose bitcoiners are actually using it to hedge again. these are certainly strange times.

45  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bit Coin Price Drop on: March 30, 2014, 01:08:20 PM
Further? Jesus! So basically everyone who had bitcoin has lost money?

well, it certainly can't be the other way around. it's a zero-sum game Wink

but all the doom and gloom is definitely overstated. if you want to increase your bitcoin holdings in the short term, you can try to buy back lower. but if you're content with lower risk on a longer timescale, sit tight.
46  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 30, 2014, 01:03:30 PM
Wow hard times! This time it really must be the end!






Not...

No, this time is for real

it's neither, but with all the wannabe HODLers who bought in the past 4 months and have seen serious losses, and denial from folks like underdog, we're in for a loooooong squeeeeze.
47  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 30, 2014, 12:53:56 PM
400 incoming i guess

will huobi follow? its ticker hasn't even tested its last low yet... Huh
48  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Weekly Newsletter Discussion and Analysis on: March 30, 2014, 12:48:57 PM
What do you think about the huobi chart? The consolidation looks more like a symmetrical triangle rather than a flat-bottom one, in comparison to stamp.

Should we be expecting a violent downward movement today or tomorrow?

triangles can be tricky because they have the nasty habit of breaking out into larger and more complex fractal patterns, instead of the clear textbook breakout, as the market postpones a decision. let me know if my previous post was clear enough to answer your question Wink

--arepo

edit: BREAKOUT! right on schedule Cheesy now we just need some real volume to confirm, and we could see a movement down to an estimated support of $410-$420 within 12 hours.
49  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 30, 2014, 12:45:30 PM
The chart looks like two people stepped on land mines. Short sellers gotta wonder how many more are out there.

lol you're pretty transparent in your desperate attempts at arguing why the price would go up. It really shines through that you're in a bad big long position that you are looking to exit.

Have you even looked at the actual stats I shared a few posts back? Shorts are reducing their positions not adding. We are taking profit since we, unlike you, have a profit not a loss.

You're such a beta, I bet you don't even lift. Keep posting, btw, I'd put you on ignore for our pure stupidity but watching you loose money is too fun.

The massive bitfinex long positions have even increased, standing at more than 17 millions. During this drop nobody has covered. I guess they will go kamikaze style until they are margin called.

coupled with the bearish sentiment and indicators, this is a perfect indication of a solid long squeeze into capitulation which could finally mark the short-term bottom.
50  Economy / Speculation / Re: When will it go back up? on: March 30, 2014, 11:35:11 AM
eventually Wink

or, for a more detailed response, try my weekly newsletter. next issue goes out tomorrow!

--arepo
51  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Weekly Newsletter Discussion and Analysis on: March 30, 2014, 10:55:10 AM
What do you think about the huobi chart? The consolidation looks more like a symmetrical triangle rather than a flat-bottom one, in comparison to stamp.

Should we be expecting a violent downward movement today or tomorrow?

are you referring to the fact that huobi has still not trended all the way down to the last low? this higher low could be the start of a symmetrical triangle, yes. however, stamp has already trended all the way down to the last low ($466)! either we break under this support and see some more capitulation quite soon or within the next 6 hours, or we bounce and see tandem triangles -- flat-bottomed (descending) on bitstamp and symmetrical on huobi, which will postpone the market decision for most of the day.

--arepo

edit:

scenario b, playing out on the 12-hour scale


http://i.imgur.com/VdXJzqt.png

as this 12-hour candle has 1 hour till close with pretty pathetic volume for a breakout candle so far, it's pretty much now or never for a decisive break under $466 for bitstamp. if we do not see a decision in this time frame, there is another time frame (the 6-hour i mentioned) that it is still possible, though less likely, after which, if we do not see the necessary volume, we will be trapped in the tandem triangles described above. the market is still leaning bearish but if the necessary selling volume does not materialize despite the many opportunities an upwards breakout becomes possible again after the largest triangle is traced. i will update this thread with weighted scenarios in that case, as we approach the narrow end of that pattern.
52  Economy / Speculation / Re: When will this downward bubble pop? on: March 30, 2014, 10:09:12 AM
According to this chart https://www.tradingview.com/v/7YEmxS3K/ we moving far too quickly downward. A correction may push the price up prematurely.

perhaps this rather small data set is not predictively extrapolatable Tongue

or maybe i'm just making up words now. who knoooooowss.

/sleep deprived arepo
53  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Weekly Newsletter Discussion and Analysis -- UPDATE on: March 30, 2014, 08:50:09 AM
drifting downwards on low volume is relatively neutral, but a downwards channel is forming that will bring us to the support at $466 if we do not reverse. again, this test is critical. a bounce (scenario b, most likely) will likely resolve into a flat-bottom consolidation pattern (detailed in the above updates). a break under this support is very bearish.

we just witnessed a bounce off of the 23.6% Fibonacci support ($473) as detailed on page 16 of this week's issue. a bounce here would likely resolve into an even larger symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern, which would actually be more bearish than a proper retest of the lower support, as this pattern in this environment is the dreaded "Bear Pennant" downtrend continuation signal. a flat-bottomed triangle that properly retests the last low has a better chance of breaking upward.

--arepo
54  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 30, 2014, 08:21:01 AM

PBoC has just confirmed that it was not the source of the latest ban FUD.  This comes from reliable Chinese news soure Weigo-Xiuxiu Nau.  Props to Proudhon for the tip. Cool



Does this mean that we should buy, now?  we're no t going lower?

well thats what Ive been saying, the bulls have the upper edge to any scenario.

this could take a real hike if it is true.



lol panic buy on huobi, bitstamp, even LTCUSD -facepalm-

we'll see in a bit if the market actually agrees that this new source is authoritative and the message is significant. we still haven't broken out of the short-term downwards channel on stamp.
55  Economy / Economics / Re: Why did BTC drop by $75 in the past week on: March 30, 2014, 08:05:11 AM
we broke below a very important price support recently ($530). if you look at the price history in the past 5 months, the only times we fell under this level were during brief flash panics that were immediately bought back up into the $600s range (immediate post-bubble recovery, and then mtgox panic sell). price action below this support for the length of time that we've seen has gotten everybody spooked about a real bear market ahead. also, most weak hands that have already sold are looking to buy lower. HODLers are simply HODLing, and bought the bitcoins they wanted at these "cheap" prices already during the consolidation. therefore there is little buying pressure left, so we're floating downward on low volume.

--arepo
56  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 30, 2014, 07:53:29 AM
and creekbore, we all notice you dont post your trades. scared?

you can stop being 'lazy cynical and insolent now'.

and seriously, look back into the trades Ive posted. Ive made only winning trades in the last 3 days. NOT A SINGLE LOSER.

Well, you're contradicting yourself now (yesterday you told me you'd made at least one loss).

But why come on here and brag about your trades?  It makes little sense other than reveal vanity and insecurity (is it really that important that a bunch of strangers need to think highly of you?).

I doubt anyone notices that I don't post my trades (I suggest most people would care less)...but if you want to post a running commentary on your personal financial exploits, why get so touchy if someone questions the veracity of your claims.

oh one loser im sorry, have I failed in life?

this is a speculation discussion forum, we come here to articulate ourselves and discuss. numers and positions are highly relevant.

and you are just a troll, you sit in the corner until you find someone you think you could size up to. and maybe that lasts you a day of contention, being an insolent lazy cynical asshole.

go find the post where I told you that so everyone will believe you and love you. at least that will keep your mouth shut for another week, cos it doesnt exist you lunatic.

Well, there's the contradiction above plus the dick-waving you were doing yesterday about your EW chart.

You do claim to be 'right' a lot of the time...which makes a fool like me highly suspicious Smiley

If you've been around so long you'll remember (name redacted to avoid embarrassment) 'Reversal' thread (which has been deleted it seems)....that was full of very confident, highly intellectualised posts, lots of fancy graphs with lines and buckets.  It was pretty much wrong at every turn, yet every time people  would (with great agility) change their position and carry one posting new, concrete PoVs.  

And if you think I'm giving you a hard time you should have seen the stick they got.

Me, all I know is that I know little.



enough of your stupid riddles.

all you know is little, agreed.

no contradictions up there, the break out stalled and the chart is still valid fool.

this morning I sold at 495 and bought at 483.

it's easy to try bring down peoples reputations when you haven't got one isnt it?

why would you lash out like this? from the sound of it, you'd think a little bit of humility would kill the man Undecided
57  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 30, 2014, 03:13:39 AM
If anyone is wondering about ChartBuddy, my hosting provider is currently experiencing issues.

sad thing being that no one seems to be Embarrassed

this thread is such a racket these days
58  Economy / Speculation / Arepo's Weekly Newsletter Discussion and Analysis -- UPDATE on: March 29, 2014, 11:36:32 PM
The downward breakout anticipated in the previous post merely broke us out into a larger symmetrical triangle, but it seems the true downward breakout is starting as i type.

again, we're most likely going to retest the support at $470. mid-term indicators are bearish, so this is an important test. if we break under this support, we could see some serious capitulation or a slow grind into a short-term downtrend.
59  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 29, 2014, 10:51:22 PM
stamp on the dump

Have you let go mexican? I have.

this wedge is very risky.

Cough, cough  Grin

oh seleme you joker.

 Cheesy

im a day trader and it's been days since I opened long.

not to mention that i made a healthy profit.

all he said is that you'd change your mind  Tongue

I am expecting a snap back none the less. the market hit a natural bottom after panic selling. this must take days to consolidate or reverse, and shorts are very vulnerable.
60  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 29, 2014, 10:05:59 PM
Why so defensive?? If you are a paid troll, are you allowed to deny it? I guess you would be. But your defensiveness makes it seem like you're more guilty.
If I were a paid troll, I would deny it, no? Silly question...

Tell me where I have "spread fear" without backing it up with argument.
We tell you that all the time.  You choose to ignore it and press on.  So we choose to ignore you and press on.  Sad that - some of us were hoping you would continue to offer constructive counterpoint arguments, which would help the less cynical among us to challenge our assumptions.

IMHO you're lying to yourself and us about your position or you don't really understand objective analysis, which is something I still find hard to believe given your background.

BTW, have you learned how to use bitcoin yet, professor? Tongue
Another reason to suspect he is getting paid. His background vs. his commentary doesn't add up. What does add up, however, is that he admits to having a decent size family to take care of, we know the economic situation in Brazil is very difficult and we can suspect a professor doesn't necessarily make much to take care of a such a family. He would be a perfect choice as a paid troll.

you're still assuming that JorgeStolfi @ bitcointalk is actually Jorge Stolfi...
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