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401  Economy / Speculation / Re: BTC price short-term? on: January 04, 2014, 03:19:18 AM
Anyone who thinks they can make a really good guess at the short term price of bitcoin is probably kidding themselves. its way to volatile to make a prediction like that.

you'd be surprised. there are methods which can do just that, depending on the price environment.
402  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: January 04, 2014, 03:17:53 AM

it's a giant mid-term bulltrap. in other words, it's an upwards correction inside of the longer-term downtrend.

Sure. I understand the premise. I guess we will see.

If that wedge breaks upward or sideways then up, then what do your charts say?

Wave 5 is it?

it won't.

i'm not even using EW, im using the damped oscillator model, and it is increasingly apparent that we are not yet through the aftershocks of the December crash. this is a correction to the downtrend, which will not be complete until one more large capitulation event. then we may start a new trend.
403  Economy / Speculation / Re: Estimated inflection point ( from the last bubble ) on: January 04, 2014, 03:13:15 AM

In your opinion, what is the chance of a final big crash to 600, 500 levels happening within this month before the stabilization of price?
Its will be highly improbable of any fall this month,if market remains above 775 level till 5 jan, although there is a small window for falling below/to 648 level around 20-21 january 2014.

my models similarly predict another high-volume capitulation in about 3 weeks.

Can I ask, do your models cater for the virality that Bitcoin is imbued with now? Do they cater for the Hodl philosophy (no joke!). Is it possible in your opinions as analysts accurately to incorporate these elements?

can you imagine an empirical method to quantify the effects of these things on the price?

unfortunately, it is difficult to say exactly how (and when!) these things will affect price, and so it is easiest just to rely on the information that is already priced in, which (under the efficient market hypothesis) should be all of it, but in reality is at least most of it. in this way, direct price analysis already accounts for the effects of the factors you mentioned.

--arepo
404  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: January 04, 2014, 03:02:50 AM


This fits the bulltrap scenario

Seriously, what does NOT fit the bill trap scenario? People have been saying this the entire time we've been going up.

it's a giant mid-term bulltrap. in other words, it's an upwards correction inside of the longer-term downtrend.
405  Economy / Speculation / Re: All bets off, are we of to the races again? New rally, new top? on: January 03, 2014, 02:44:37 PM
ITT: newb-traders Tongue
406  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 03, 2014, 02:41:53 PM
Quote from: pdawg
OK Here's my take on a 3 month time frame (got both the bears and bull covered):

(img snip)

Personally the price action around the 900 level will be very telling for me...

since the top of your channel is determined only by the slope of the bottom line, which is solely determined by two points of data (both of which are extremes and which qualify as outliers), i'm not sure how robust this model is. the possible confounding scenarios are as follows:

scenario 1 (bearish, dark grey, less deviant, more likely): the deviance of the outliers caused you to underestimate the slope of the channel, and this consolidation is a decision point where we may either correct downward or break through.

scenario 2 (bullish, light grey, more deviant, less likely): the deviance of the outliers caused you to underestimate the slope of the channel, and this latest price action is a bullish breakout.



http://s16.postimg.org/un1muboz9/channel.png

===

regardless, always stress test your models!

interesting -- the price action seems to suggest that scenario 2 was correct after all...

--arepo
407  Economy / Speculation / Re: VOLUME on: January 03, 2014, 05:16:36 AM
volume has literally dropped 75% or more on all exchange compared to the last month.

not sure what that means in bitcoin land, but in stocks, thats a bad thing, shows declining interest.

with bitcoin its really no good as there are mining coins coming online every day. stocks do not have new shares issued every day.

0/10 troll harder
408  Economy / Speculation / Re: VOLUME on: January 03, 2014, 03:09:54 AM
A new question
Do markets "learn" from the surprise of the rise and next similar rise will be more damped or we expect a similar oscilation for similar price changes?

this questions reminds me of another that still baffles me. consistent patterns in price data ("autocorrelations") are not supposed to exist under the efficient market hypothesis. however, triangle consolidation patterns are extremely common and robust in the bitcoin universe, and at least make appearances in the larger financial world, as well. if traders are able to anticipate these behaviors, they should be able to profit from them and, in doing so, negate them -- as your intuition tells you, "damping" the oscillation more and more each time-- but we don't see this occurring! either way, there is a very complex feedback loop that creates the environment in which they form.

that being said, it's difficult to say from my own work anything other than that they occur, they occur consistently in response to sudden and large ("high-energy") price movements, they occur on all scales, and their mechanism is similar to the physics of a ball bouncing or a pendulum swinging, depending on the environment.

in other words, the market does not seem to "learn" in this regard and the magnitude and type of the damping is the product of a complex feedback loop that is difficult to predict.

--arepo
409  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 03, 2014, 02:42:19 AM
Quote from: pdawg
OK Here's my take on a 3 month time frame (got both the bears and bull covered):

(img snip)

Personally the price action around the 900 level will be very telling for me...

since the top of your channel is determined only by the slope of the bottom line, which is solely determined by two points of data (both of which are extremes and which qualify as outliers), i'm not sure how robust this model is. the possible confounding scenarios are as follows:

scenario 1 (bearish, dark grey, less deviant, more likely): the deviance of the outliers caused you to underestimate the slope of the channel, and this consolidation is a decision point where we may either correct downward or break through.

scenario 2 (bullish, light grey, more deviant, less likely): the deviance of the outliers caused you to underestimate the slope of the channel, and this latest price action is a bullish breakout.



http://s16.postimg.org/un1muboz9/channel.png

===

regardless, always stress test your models!

--arepo
410  Economy / Speculation / Re: Estimated inflection point ( from the last bubble ) on: January 03, 2014, 01:58:38 AM

In your opinion, what is the chance of a final big crash to 600, 500 levels happening within this month before the stabilization of price?
Its will be highly improbable of any fall this month,if market remains above 775 level till 5 jan, although there is a small window for falling below/to 648 level around 20-21 january 2014.

my models similarly predict another high-volume capitulation in about 3 weeks.
411  Economy / Speculation / Re: VOLUME on: January 03, 2014, 12:17:12 AM
So as the energy wears out we look at volume; if it is weak we predict the price will go down - is that it in a nutshell or have I got it wrong?

nope. the entire point is that the weak volume in this case has nothing to do with any underlying trends. the weak volume is because we are about halfway through the oscillations caused by the large-volume price movement from $1200-$750, and we are very close to the equilibrium price, analogous to the zero-potential energy point in a physical oscillator.

then again, i'm sure some here will disagree. i like to apply physical models in my analysis, but a more well-accepted interpretation is that we are entering a sustained period of low-volume consolidation as the market begins to "forget" about the November-December volatility, and decides on a new trend. this kind of quiet occurs after all large price movements.

--arepo
412  Economy / Speculation / Re: VOLUME on: January 03, 2014, 12:06:30 AM
OK that's understood. So what I mean is that the closer the swings get to the point (the less energy there is in the oscillation) is the closer we get to the market moving in the next price direction, is that right?

yes, as the oscillations lose energy any underlying trend becomes proportionally more apparent than the effects of the initial push.
413  Economy / Speculation / Re: VOLUME on: January 03, 2014, 12:05:00 AM
I agree with you more on it than almost everybody in this forum, except one or two exceptions. I rarely write about it Wink

i wouldn't write about it either but the sheer obliviousness of each new wave of investors calls to the teacher in me Cheesy
414  Economy / Speculation / Re: VOLUME on: January 03, 2014, 12:02:02 AM

Am I understanding it correctly then by saying that as the oscillation fades you look to see where the next move will go, and that it is at this point that you consider volume?

EDIT: or do you mean that the direction should change once the oscillation fades?

not sure what you're getting at, but allow me to clarify.

we've been oscillating about a (moving) hidden price point since the crash, similarly to the way that a pendulum swings back and forth through a point of "zero potential energy". while the system has enough energy, it does not rest at this equilibrium point, but as the system loses energy, its movement strays less and less from this point until it comes to rest. the oscillations in price are running out of "energy" and we were seeing a low-volume consolidation around this equilibrium point. "energy" is proportional to volume in this model.

--arepo
415  Economy / Speculation / Re: VOLUME on: January 02, 2014, 10:55:54 PM
Linearly decreasing amplitudes don't happen in nature, it's almost always exponential decay.
Why should price fluctuations be different?

sorry for the ambiguity. i meant to say that one example of a damped oscillator is a sine function with linearly decreasing amplitude, not that that is the preferred model for price.

you don't take issue with the fact that price behavior can be modeled with the equations for damped oscillators, do you?
416  Economy / Speculation / Re: VOLUME on: January 02, 2014, 10:50:25 PM
we were seeing such low volume this week specifically because the price point we were consolidating at corresponds to "zero potential energy" in the oscillations caused by the crash. i am referencing a model none of you have seen, but maybe someone will know what i'm talking about Tongue

hint: price behavior after a sudden and significant movement can be modeled with the equations for a damped oscillator, like a sine function with linearly decreasing amplitude.

--arepo

edit: here's another hint:

417  Economy / Speculation / Re: Green shoot analysis - volume increasing on: January 02, 2014, 10:38:27 PM

Well doesn't this data (the volume bars at the bottom of the image) show consistently bullish up movements, at more regular and certainly more voluminous rates than the downward red movements? Please let me know if I have misread it.

ah yes i see what you mean now. not sure if it can be said that this data alone predicted the movement we just saw but it was a good bull signal to notice. well done.

--arepo
418  Economy / Speculation / Re: Decision Point! -or- A Page From Arepo's Notes on: January 02, 2014, 10:33:54 PM
seems that bitcointalk image proxy is having issues w/ them on my end... keep getting "invalid image" error

thanks for the confirmation. would a mod mind helping me out in correcting this issue? since the predictions are a half-week old or so, and the pattern that was forecast is now complete, it's not anything urgent, but i would like to know how to avoid this in the future. i also would like to keep this thread intact as documentation of my methods for future reference on these forums.

that being said, i am quite pleased with the accuracy of the model i presented, and i hope it helped others anticipate this rally and the resistance at $800.

and, as always, if you profit from me, help keep it free! Wink
18N9md2G1oA89kdBuiyJFrtJShuL5iDWDz

--arepo
419  Economy / Speculation / Re: Losing all hope on: January 02, 2014, 07:39:01 PM
I am losing all hope of ever buying Bitcoin cheap again Sad

Who else is starting to feel like $500 BTC is never gonna happen?Huh


lol you newbs and your blatant sentiment signals...

right as MtGox makes a new weekly high breaking the $830 resistance Cheesy
420  Economy / Speculation / Re: Green shoot analysis - volume increasing on: January 02, 2014, 07:30:58 PM
Shoots keep growing...



im sorry to say that you're looking at this image through green-colored glasses. if your "green shoots" carry that much significance, than shouldn't the "red slides" carry the same? in this image, there are about an even number of them. also, as many other posters have pointed out, volume really matters.

anyway, i'm just not sure about what conclusions you are drawing and what conclusions even can be drawn from this particular data.

--arepo
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