Bitcoin Forum
August 20, 2018, 10:03:11 AM *
News: Latest stable version of Bitcoin Core: 0.16.2  [Torrent].
 
  Home Help Search Donate Login Register  
  Show Posts
Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 [22] 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 ... 81 »
421  Economy / Speculation / Re: Decision Point! -or- A Page From Arepo's Notes on: January 02, 2014, 07:24:50 PM
thank you arepo.

your analysis is of great value to me, and I appreciate that you share your work freely.

thank you. your feedback is what motivates me Smiley i will be continuing to comment on market conditions on the forums, posting some analysis from time to time, and am currently compiling a mid-term price report which should be up for sale in the coming weeks.

is anyone else having issues with the images in this thread? there are a few error messages displayed instead of the images even though the links are correct (will load the image if pasted directly into a web browser). Huh

--arepo
422  Economy / Speculation / Re: 1 jan 2013 : Trading in a small band on: January 01, 2014, 01:51:02 AM

Very low/ high volumes fail most indicators.


creating noise in indicator data and invalidating indicator data are two different creatures.
423  Economy / Speculation / Re: Accord's trading forecast/outlook on: January 01, 2014, 01:49:18 AM
Btsp doesn't process payments tomorrow and its actually going sideways and market is very bearish.

i vehemently disagree.

--arepo
424  Economy / Speculation / Re: Decision Point! -or- A Page From Arepo's Notes on: January 01, 2014, 01:47:26 AM
1-month 2-hour scale @ BITSTAMP



===

Accumulation/Distribution reveals an extremely bullish consolidation behind the sideways movement we've been seeing. the mid-term trend should carry us up towards the next major resistance at $800, but no higher, in the coming week.

--arepo
425  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: December 31, 2013, 09:05:35 PM
You
Play
To Win
The Game
Damn you. You made me lose The Game. More than year not losing.

the only winning move is not to play
426  Economy / Speculation / Re: Decision Point! -or- A Page From Arepo's Notes on: December 31, 2013, 03:41:11 PM
update:


http://s22.postimg.org/lf7f3g62p/pennant.png

white pennant would be bearish. we need to break up out of this formation above $724 in order to maintain the mid-term support outlined in the OP.

having witnessed a decisive upwards breakout, we are on-track to break through the $740/$810 (bitstamp/mtgox) resistance in the short-term, with last night's slide cementing a new bottom.

--arepo
427  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: December 31, 2013, 08:35:07 AM
4 hour candles, how "short-term" are we talkin?

fair retort. i suppose "micro-term" is more appropriate here. i was responding to Bright in context, while assuming they were referring to the slide that just happened in response to the failure to break the resistance they mentioned.

all i mean to say is this small move down doesn't strengthen the bearish case if the doji marks a micro-term bottom. we're still being held up by the mid-term support as long as we don't move any lower. hence why this fairly small price movement is very significant.

--arepo

got it, thanks for the explanation. in these times of high volatility, i think its fair to call a 1 day to 1 week time-frame 'short term.'

yes, that is the general usage. i'm afraid i'm being a little optimistic here and referencing my bullishly notated charts (see my thread) Tongue if everything pans out, $775 will indeed hold for that time frame.
428  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: December 31, 2013, 08:24:38 AM
4 hour candles, how "short-term" are we talkin?

fair retort. i suppose "micro-term" is more appropriate here. i was responding to Bright in context, while assuming they were referring to the slide that just happened in response to the failure to break the resistance they mentioned.

all i mean to say is this small move down doesn't strengthen the bearish case if the doji marks a micro-term bottom. we're still being held up by the mid-term support as long as we don't move any lower, hence why this fairly small price movement is very significant.

--arepo
429  Economy / Speculation / Re: Relationship between bitcoin and altcoins on: December 31, 2013, 07:10:37 AM
In the past, |d/dp alt coin avg price| > |d/dp btc price|, where d/dp = derivative of price.

this doesn't make sense to me. do you mean dp/dt where p = price and t = time?

d/dp looks like "derivative w/r/t price" but d/dp (price) = 1.

in context, with your talk of volatility, you're probably referring to the rate of change of price, dp/dt -- is that correct?
430  Economy / Speculation / Re: Decision Point! -or- A Page From Arepo's Notes on: December 31, 2013, 07:06:21 AM
quick update:


http://s22.postimg.org/lf7f3g62p/pennant.png

white pennant would be bearish. we need to break up out of this formation above $724 in order to maintain the mid-term support outlined in the OP.

--arepo
431  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: December 31, 2013, 07:03:54 AM
$830 is continuing to act as massive resistance. This is good news for the bearish case.

no dice. high-volume doji marks the short-term bottom:



we're still being held up by the mid-term moving support.

--arepo
432  Economy / Speculation / Re: Estimated inflection point ( from the last bubble ) on: December 31, 2013, 05:56:49 AM
But how much significance is it that it's a holiday season with relatively low volume with these upward and downward predictions?  With low volume charting has something less significance, no?  

Great analysis though of the rolling inflection points.

thanks for the feedback Smiley

the low volume is also because we are in the final stages of consolidation before the next market decision. the price is trapped within a relatively small range and most participants are comfortable with their current position and are waiting for a signal outside of the present channel before taking an action.

further, many indicators take volume into consideration, although none of the ones feature in the post i linked really do. this is not necessarily a weakness though, because they are designed to function independent of volume.

worst case here, is that the holiday slump and low volume draw out the consolidation a little longer than expected, as the price will need some serious energy to break out of this channel. i'll have to look back at some of my past work, but from my knowledge of how they are calculated, the directionality of the indicators i used should not be invalidated by low volume.

--arepo
433  Economy / Speculation / Re: watching bitcoin price and discussing it on this forum on: December 31, 2013, 05:48:26 AM
Quote from: arepo
anyway, i hope you appreciated the explanation Wink i tried to give a complete picture of the conceptual underpinnings without going into too much detail. lots of good vocabulary to wiki for future inquiries, too!

--arepo

Very good write up. Not the first one I've read, but one of the better ones for sure. Thanks.
thank you very much for the effort, I realy like how you tried to keep it as simple as it can be, you must be a teacher ?  it is not my domain of work but I remember studying Structure of materials at university, and it was a hell of fun, but since then I didn't read any relatedcscience articles or magazines, I would love to make sometime to educate my self..

 maybe spending less time on these forum and stop reading some worthless posts and trolls will spare me the time to do so Smiley
Much appreciated. And one of the reasons I'm also addicted to this forum. You just never know what will show up.   Cool
Wow thanks for the pre-coffee read. I was fascinated by this stuff in high school but went to a conservatory to study music instead. Very cool.

thanks for the feedback guys! i'm not a teacher by profession, but i'm definitely an educator at heart. i love being back here on the forums because it has always been a great place for both learning from and teaching the community, what i can. in fact, most of my TA posts aim at helping those who are trading with their gut (read: gambling with their money) learn some basic techniques for gauging the various aspects of the market that you can glean from price and volume data. in fact, i just started a thread detailing a few notes about the current situation. if my work is well-received, it will be the first of many reports Smiley i very much appreciate the feedback.

--arepo
434  Economy / Speculation / Re: Decision Point! on: December 31, 2013, 05:34:18 AM
Do you really believe this stuff?  I think you'd be much better off focusing on psychology and world events w.r.t. Bitcoin prices.  I guess I'm just a TA atheist.  If it does work to a limited degree, I think it's probably because there are like minded traders who see the classic patterns and trade accordingly.  A self-fulfilling prophecy is born .. and then trashed when the real world (whales, news, etc) comes barging in.

the main problem with trading on 'real-world events' and fundamentals is that it is nearly impossible to determine in a quantifiable way exactly how, and when, these things will affect price.

the beauty of technical analysis is that these indicators are well-tested and calibrated in an attempt to find the underlying trends in the noise of price data. oscillators are surprisingly good at this. take a look at the following, and maybe i can help instill some doubts in your atheistic stance:

===


http://s7.postimg.org/4usdnqdgr/beautiful.png

===

i haven't drawn in the line, but do you see how well the "ascending triangle" formation in the oscillator tracks the lifespan of the rally?

and perhaps my pictures alone won't sway you. i do have a few things to say in defense of technical analysis, as it is fairly often dismissed around these parts for most of the years i've frequented the forums.

psychology: market psychology and recurrent patterns in price data are one and the same. the main goal technical analysis is to find consistent patterns in data, often which correspond to irrational behavior of market participants like fear and greed, and exploit these patterns. the "ascending triangle" formation in oscillators is an extremely robust pattern for almost every major trend in bitcoin price, and in fact helped me and my subscribers anticipate and track a nearly identical situation back in April, thereby profiting quite nicely, indeed.

like-minded traders: i hear this one an awful lot. many people seem to believe that the only way TA would work, at all, is via a self-fulfilling prophecy where a bloc of traders responding to the same signals cause the price to follow the patterns they believe that they see. however, in reality, exploiting patterns tends to have a confounding effect on the patterns themselves, in a similar manner to how arbitraging helps correct the market inefficiencies which the practice itself exploits. furthermore, the "like-minded trader hypothesis" assumes that TA-practicing speculators make up most of the volume of market activity, which i highly doubt.

whales and black swan events: this one is the most serious point you bring up. TA fails completely in factoring in the effect of sudden events which have the potential to significantly affect the price. this is mitigated, however, by the fact that very often these factors either amplify or mitigate existing trends and market psychology, as opposed to completely invalidating them. also, the process of pricing-in of new information is generally much more gradual than many traders anticipate (e.g. no price doubling when block reward halves). as for whales, it is safe to assume that large holders mostly consist of "smart money" which tends not to disrupt trends, but rather follow them. in other words, the market, by design, provides a profit incentive for participants not to violate the underlying  mechanisms which allow TA to work.

as for a note on the empirical status of this kind of work, my best efforts have been creating a set of frames of interpretation which maximizes the "agreement" between the data of the various indicators. this comes from the idea that scientific deductions must be able to be determined independently from the data, as in how both the chemistry of the soil of the earth and the properties of gravitational fields simultaneously predict the same theory of planetary formation. i have attempted to demonstrate this property of my work in the excerpt above, demonstrating how the interpretations of the various data encourage the same conclusions. and i can assure you that these interpretations are not ad hoc in order to achieve this illusion, but rather are methods i have used and profited from for more than two years, now. there is no better test than trading with a system Wink

i hope i have better explained why i believe that the methods in the OP are sound.

--arepo

*post edited for clarity

435  Economy / Speculation / Re: 31 december : Short signal on: December 31, 2013, 05:07:42 AM
If the price goes below 716 level for more than 1 hour, then it could fall down to 712 level, within next 12 hrs.

If the support at 712 is broken,then could slide down to 690 level.

agreed. we need a high-volume recovery soon or else the picture turns bearish.
436  Economy / Speculation / Decision Point! -or- A Page From Arepo's Notes on: December 31, 2013, 05:01:59 AM
arepo - Is this our bear signal crossing the RSI support?

https://www.tradingview.com/x/hg02ySmu/

Seems we got MACD cross hitting on the same timeframe as well. I'm still on the fence as to how things will work out, but watching closely.

that flash crash was strange. sort of like a long squeeze. heavy volume over a very short period and then a rapid recovery.

it is true that it caused the RSI to break below the moving support. however, this alone is still not necessarily bearish. on the other hand, the bullish picture is gone. we seem to have a strong moving support but low weekend volume butting the price against a significant resistance. i would expect sideways consolidation until we can get enough volume for the market to make a decision either way.

it seems we have arrived at the aforementioned decision point! despite the tipping boat on the charts, i don't think it is yet time to panic Wink

i like to use technical indicators to help locate the underlying trends in the noisy price data, so i'd like to share with you some of my notes...

warning: some of the following may not be familiar to newer traders. if at any point you are confused as to what i am trying to say, feel free to ask below and i will clarify as best i can.

THE slide we just witnessed was anticipated most clearly by a rather cheesily-named indicator called the "Ultimate Oscillator", an oscillator calculated with moving averages, and another oscillator called the Slow Stochastic Oscillator:

===

10-day 2-hour scale @ BITSTAMP


http://s8.postimg.org/l3yz1tx6d/10day2hour30dec2115.png


http://s30.postimg.org/rkwylu0k1/10day2hour30dec.png

10-day bitstamp price data for reference

===

this is a markup i made immediately after the first leg down, showing how the failing of one moving support portended a movement down to the next level of support. black marks the primary moving support, grey marks the secondary. we have since broken through this as well, violating the trend. however, the 10-day scale is "micro-term" and doesn't give us much insight into the larger picture.

ON the 1-month scale, the Aroon Oscillator, an oscillator based on the Aroon Up/Down indicator system, shows a clear uptrend since the high-volume bottom around $400:

===

1-month 2-hour scale @ BITSTAMP


http://s30.postimg.org/pr2hn272p/1month2hour30dec2315.png

1-month bitstamp price data for reference

===

while this data is much noisier than the previous two indicators, a robust moving support with 4 points of contact can be discerned. the best aspect of this markup is that this moving support actually predicted the price support we're seeing the price interact with as we speak. that being said, the picture is not yet bearish, but we'll have to see a strong recovery in the micro-term in order to keep the data from violating this trend.

ANOTHER view from the slow stochastic oscillator:

===

1-month 6-hour scale @ BITSTAMP


http://s22.postimg.org/z2gp3aapt/momentoftruth.png

1-month bitstamp price data for reference

===

this is the most interesting view of the data, i believe, but it requires a little bit of interpretation of oscillator data: the slightly lower low on the oscillator corresponding with a higher low in the price data is a bullish sign, because the oscillator moving downwards indicates a consolidation or contrarian movement in the price, and when we see upwards consolidation allowing the relief of so much selling pressure while maintaining trend, it is a very bullish sign.

however, we also see a head-and-shoulders formation. impressively, here we see an independent set of oscillator data that predicted the serious resistance we faced as we approached $740/$810 (bitstamp/mtgox). this it corresponds with a decision point where the market either breaks up out of the pattern or fails to overcome the resistance and reverses.

AS it stands, we need a high-volume, rapid recovery to maintain this trend from $600. if this occurs, we will break through the resistance at $740/$820 (bitstamp/mtgox). if we see no such thing, the major 1-month moving support will be violated and the picture will turn bearish. the incredible volume at the previous 1-month low is enough to cement it in the mid-term, so we should see mid-term prices no lower than $600 even in the bearish scenario.

--arepo

I work diligently in my analysis, and share it with you as I can. If you learn from me, help keep it free!
18N9md2G1oA89kdBuiyJFrtJShuL5iDWDz

*post edited for clarity






437  Economy / Speculation / Re: Is BTC still in a 1150 USD buble...? on: December 31, 2013, 02:36:07 AM
I was doing some basic noob stastic stuff and it gave me results similiar to what i have thought before...

this is how you know you're doing it wrong.
438  Economy / Speculation / Re: India is officialy out of Bitcoin for the foreseeable future on: December 31, 2013, 02:32:27 AM
Countries with currency controls will always be hostile to Bitcoin.

Far from India being out of the game, every wealthy Indian is now examining Bitcoin and considering its utility in their wealth preservation plans.



If there are 21 million rich people in this world and they all want just 1 Btc each, they won't be able to buy 1 Btc each. Once a "tipping point" is reached, btcs value will more likely than not skyrocket, IMHO.

According to Wikipedia there are around 10 million millionaires in the world.

just keep HOPLING

Name me one other payments system where I can transfer funds between borders without the "assistance" of banks.

Once they understand it, rich people will love bitcoins, don't worry about that.

Name me one way of getting fiat into BTC without paying the ferryman his dues ...

purchase btc face-to-face from your neighbor with cash money in one hand and a smartphone in the other.
439  Economy / Speculation / Re: How and why Bitcoin will plummet in price on: December 31, 2013, 02:00:27 AM
Krugman has been trolling Bitcoiners pretty consistently over the years, and it always was met with the same pre-conditioned response. He's become so good at it now that he can't even be ignored anymore... most appreciative. Smiley

?  Krugman's criticisms are easily dismissed.  Even a perma-bear like you must be intelligent enough to recognize the errors he made in his opus against Bitcoin.  I don't have it in front of me, but I read his entire position awhile back and was surprised at how loose of a grasp he has on the basics of both economics and Bitcoin.

wait, when did electric become a perma-bear? seriously, you leave for a couple of months and all the oldfags become trolls? Huh Tongue
440  Economy / Speculation / Re: How and why Bitcoin will plummet in price on: December 30, 2013, 08:22:26 PM
this person has no understanding of economics, and has his head up Keynes' ass.

that is all.
Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 [22] 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 ... 81 »
Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!