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461  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 06, 2013, 07:11:27 AM


great rendering of the triangle that confirms my suspicions of an imminent correction/downward breakout.
462  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 06, 2013, 06:59:36 AM
The strong price action, leads me to think, we'll see 134 soon.  Cry  Cry

doubt it, this movement just completed a still-bearish wedge.

General TA question, how do you factor in the order book? Not just in what you're seeing now, but in general when you look over the data. The depth, the consolidation, the consolidation at price points. What percetnage of the asks are real, what percentage get pulled as the bid wall approaches? Does that even matter?

i don't put much stock in it. the standing orders have less and less of an influence on the market the further you get from the current price point, because bluffing is low cost without the risk of your 'fake' wall being filled.

also, i try to determine points of resistance from direct price history analysis rather than walls in the order book. from my experience, there is usually a wall at a 'real' support/resistance, but the relationship isn't two-ways. just because there is a wall, doesn't mean it is a real support/resistance.

basically, i ignore it for the most part. reading the tide-like ebb and flow of the spread near the price point is minimally useful for anticipating micro-term movements, but beyond that it isn't good data for analysis, in my experience.
463  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 06, 2013, 06:08:35 AM
The strong price action, leads me to think, we'll see 134 soon.  Cry  Cry

doubt it, this movement just completed a still-bearish wedge.
464  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 06, 2013, 05:31:34 AM
bid/ask spread looking extremely bullish. a significant number of asks in the the $120 region have vacated in the last hour.
465  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin is to stable on: May 06, 2013, 05:27:20 AM
Right. So you are saying in the next 24 hours we will go down to 100?

no lower than $100

you're putting words in my mouth. my projections are as precise as they can be.

466  Economy / Speculation / Re: Some TA for the bears on: May 06, 2013, 04:17:15 AM


Well, I'm in, just called the real estate agent to sell my dad's house  Grin

Well hold on with selling the farm just yet. As far as I remember, classics require confirmation of this pattern before it can be considered as a low risk entry. For the confirmation, there are two criteria 1. Today's candle must close 2. The next one  must be green. Entry now would have to be considered as a high risk one.


BTW it got confirmed. TA sez we will see 175 shortly. Of course TA is a load of bollocks. But when someone in the know doing it maybe it is a little less bollocks than usual.  Grin


maybe. it looks like a classic bearish wedge, but there's always Monday money...
467  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 06, 2013, 04:09:59 AM
And we are under 120, maybe wallzilla was the only one pushing this up, now free fall?

I want 70$ coins!

yeah, that sure seemed like heavy-handed manipulation -- the wall disappeared moments after we broke $120 to see a short selloff (M's coins?).

the funny thing, though, is that it completed the bearish wedge shape... it makes me wonder about the relationship between large players and standard methods of TA.
468  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 06, 2013, 03:52:28 AM
Well, seems the triangle is complete. Up we go?

Edit: I can drawz too!



Triangle magic! Chazaaaam!  Tongue

haha aren't triangles awesome?

wall's gone though... PANIC?

the daily wedge is complete....
469  Economy / Speculation / Re: inau's secret rocket on: May 06, 2013, 03:49:51 AM
good times, great fuckn necromance haha


/drunk
470  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin is to stable on: May 06, 2013, 12:27:26 AM
If they are a continuation pattern, why should the price break down to no lower than 100?

because there are other indications that the short-term bottom is in (see the triangle consolidation model), whereas we're talking about a 3-day wedge pattern ('microterm'). time-scales are important.

The triangle model seems to suggest that we are going up to around 125-130. Are you saying we will go down to no more than 100 in 3 days or that the next price move to break this "stability" is going to be downwards? If the latter, I do not see why that should be the case.

the small movement down that i'm predicting isn't going to break the triangle consolidation model, that's going to continue for the next 2-4 weeks, based on the chart.

also, remember that just because the price has the 'space' to go up to $125 doesn't mean it will, it just means it won't go over that target.

see this thread for discussion about the micro-term prediction. the move no lower than $100 corresponds to a 24-hour window.
471  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin is to stable on: May 05, 2013, 11:35:25 PM
If they are a continuation pattern, why should the price break down to no lower than 100?

because there are other indications that the short-term bottom is in (see the triangle consolidation model), whereas we're talking about a 3-day wedge pattern ('microterm'). time-scales are important.
472  Economy / Speculation / Re: Should bounce at about $100 on: May 05, 2013, 11:29:12 PM
Thanks for supportive comment arepo. Don't know why people in the speculation forum slag off technical analysis so much.  If you don't like it go to another forum.

no problem Smiley and fully agreed.

what's interesting is that your top channel line perfectly matches a short-term call i just determined from my analysis today -- on the daily scale we're forming a bearish wedge whose close coincides with the price touching the top of the channel you outlined. i'm expecting a downward breakout from this model, which is consistent with bouncing off of the upper moving resistance in your model.

coming to the same conclusion from two different approaches is some of the best evidence for the validity of TA.
473  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin is to stable on: May 05, 2013, 11:22:26 PM
Gotta do some searching and reading. Smiley

You offc know more about this than me, but to me it seems like those white lines should be closer at the left end, with the upper one resting on the second red candle and the lower one pulled up a bit as those are just wicks and represent small volumes.

yes, one always struggles with the problem of outliers in analysis of data. these lines are estimates, of course, exactly for the reason you pointed out.

the technique that seems most successful, however, is to draw the largest possible triangle because smaller triangles have a tendency to be nested fractal patterns and simply break out into the largest triangle over the course of the consolidation.
474  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin is to stable on: May 05, 2013, 11:12:38 PM
let me clarify -- move up slightly to complete the wedge, break out down no lower than $100, then slow climb no higher than $150, then another correction (no target for this).

I don't have the grasp on technical analysis, but would expect the wedge to end up slightly lower than where it started. Then a bit of correction either up or down before heading in a new direction.
Assume you are bullish, while I am bearish ATM, would that explain the different takes?

Anyways - any good links to learn a bit more about tech analysis?

$80 really looks like a short-term bottom (see high-volume doji candle), and i've been following a triangle consolidation model since the 10 April crash that's done an excellent job so far of determining the tops and bottoms of these oscillations. we're not going to see 'serious' price movement until we complete this consolidation.

-===-



-===-

two possible triangle shapes are shown.

as for learning more, simply google search the terms "wedge, triangle, oscillator," etc, and read. then try to apply your knowledge with basic falsifiable hypotheses. make note of the outcome, and in the case of a falsified hypothesis, try to determine what your model failed to account for, fix the model, and repeat.

that's honestly all i've been doing Tongue
475  Economy / Speculation / Re: Myself chart thread :D :D on: May 05, 2013, 11:01:40 PM
your charts have too many lines. labels? explanation? you should only draw indicators that are important to your analysis.
i posted the info on OP also there is a link where u can download the study collection and there u can see each indicator and the settings

thanks, but the latter style point still applies, i think. what information can you possibly get by drawing 5 different, arbitrary EMAs?
476  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin is to stable on: May 05, 2013, 10:59:19 PM
Keep up the good job arepo, a lot of us enjoy your posts and your wonderful analysis. Just don't listen to the critics man, you always provide useful insights.

thanks, btw Wink i'm taking a break because i've been daytrading this volatility 24-7 since early April, but there's going to be a quiet period soon and i need a break haha. i'll be back, i appreciate the support Smiley

edit: shoutout to M.Gedi as well Smiley
477  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin is to stable on: May 05, 2013, 10:57:19 PM
He predicted a breakout down. That usually means up.

What makes you say down arepo?

actually, my last two calls in the wall thread panned out pretty well. ($90 bottom, $118-$107 correction)

as for the direction, wedge formations are usually continuation patterns, not reversal patterns.


so your prediction was no low than 100 higher than 150 and then crash 150-0

[Edit: first crash to 0 and then above 150 ?]
[Edit2: I finally understand  100-150 range for the next 3 days and some crash to ZERO in the middle]

let me clarify -- move up slightly to complete the wedge, break out down no lower than $100, then slow climb no higher than $150, then another correction (no target for this).
478  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin is to stable on: May 05, 2013, 10:42:44 PM
...snip...
Its 2322.  I have an order to buy 200 for 114.1.  Are you saying that I am too cautious and should set it to $101.1?

depends entirely on what time-scale you're trading. plus, the above targets are estimates, a proper hedge would be a bidspread.

Off to bed now.  Lets see if $101.1 will have been breached when I wake up.

probably not. like i said, the wedge still has about 24 hours to close.
479  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin is to stable on: May 05, 2013, 10:41:00 PM
in fact, we're nearing a day-scale breakout of a wedge formation from the $80 bottom. we'll be moving within 24 hours, don't worry.

... and up, or down? That is the question.

for those who need a translation, this is a wedge formation. and the most likely scenario, from my analysis, is a breakout down but no lower than $100, and then a slow rise to no higher than $150 before Wednesday's crash.

and what is your "Wednesday's crash" ?

but if price falls under 100 or go above 150 then arepo will say "I told ya, I was right" :-) .. any price under current market price, or above current market price or even same ... arepo predicted

nope. i will shortly be taking a break from posting analysis altogether, precisely because of shit like this. i don't post so i can crow about it later, i post so we can discuss it. i'm suffering an information loss every single time i post my playbook, so stop it with the backlash.
480  Economy / Speculation / Re: Myself chart thread :D :D on: May 05, 2013, 10:38:39 PM
your charts have too many lines. labels? explanation? you should only draw indicators that are important to your analysis.
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