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481  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin is to stable on: May 05, 2013, 10:25:54 PM
in fact, we're nearing a day-scale breakout of a wedge formation from the $80 bottom. we'll be moving within 24 hours, don't worry.

... and up, or down? That is the question.

for those who need a translation, this is a wedge formation. and the most likely scenario, from my analysis, is a breakout down but no lower than $100, and then a slow rise to no higher than $150 before Wednesday's crash.

Its 2322.  I have an order to buy 200 for 114.1.  Are you saying that I am too cautious and should set it to $101.1?

depends entirely on what time-scale you're trading. plus, the above targets are estimates, a proper hedge would be a bidspread.
482  Economy / Speculation / Re: The End Is Near on: May 05, 2013, 10:20:16 PM
So again - it's not a scalability issue, it's a problem with accounting for the true cost of a transaction. Introducing bigger blocksizes before the underlying problem (transaction fees) is solved, will only augment the devastating effect of the externalized cost of uneconomical outputs.

exactly, it's a scaleability issue regarding the economic incentives of the protocol. but we are in agreement -- it's not a fatal scaleability issue that is protocol-inherent.
483  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin is to stable on: May 05, 2013, 10:15:56 PM
in fact, we're nearing a day-scale breakout of a wedge formation from the $80 bottom. we'll be moving within 24 hours, don't worry.

... and up, or down? That is the question.

for those who need a translation, this is a wedge formation. and the most likely scenario, from my analysis, is a breakout down but no lower than $100, and then a slow rise to no higher than $150 before Wednesday's crash.
484  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin is to stable on: May 05, 2013, 10:02:49 PM
in fact, we're nearing a day-scale breakout of a wedge formation from the $80 bottom. we'll be moving within 24 hours, don't worry.
485  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another analyst :) on: May 05, 2013, 09:59:52 PM
i can see it consolidating around $90-$130 for months.

too much volatility for this. but short/mid term, we're poising break out of this triangle in 2-4 weeks, so we'll likely stay in that range until then. mid/long term, the range will probably be $50-$180 for 2-4 months.
486  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin is to stable on: May 05, 2013, 09:54:00 PM
It's been almost 4 hrs now, and the BTC has been in the $116-117 area the whole time...

you must be new here... 4 hrs of 'stability' is consolidation, not stability.
487  Economy / Speculation / Re: What sort of effect to expect on price w/ China news? on: May 05, 2013, 09:52:50 PM
Ockham's Razor.  It's much easier to believe somebody is trying to manipulate market sentiment with a download bot.  Really it is.

occam's razor implies a conspiracy theory? i don't think so.
488  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 05, 2013, 09:51:52 PM
All this manipulation talk is getting boring/old.

Have you guys consider for a split second that somebody might really want to sell those coins?

I'm confused, if this is a manipulation attempt, then, when the manipulator places his selling order, will you guys also say it's a manipulation move? Or is it a legitimate sell?
Also, all this work pushing the price up, then he, according you guys' manipulation theories, is able to sell at higher price. I hate to burst your bubbles, but if removes the wall there is no market depth to execute his selling orders at whatever prices he has been trying to push to.

Also, if you have more money than what is necessary to manipulate a market, then  you can only go for peanuts anyway. Market manipulations usually have strategic/political goals behind. Sinking a small player, build or destroy confidence on an niche, media access, etc.   Manipulating to capitalize doesn't really work, if you are the biggest player then you are the most affected by your manipulation.

Just my 2 cents.

That wall will either be consumed (even after a couple of moves) or the money will be thrown directly at executable prices driving the market up. I think the chances of it being just removed followed by a price drop, are low.

Can someone who knows more than me please answer this? Zenmario provides the most logical argument for this wall I have read today.

i agree with zenmario. 'market manipulation' is usually just large players performing their best action given market conditions. it's just as 'fair' as smaller sums attempting similar tricks on smaller scales.
489  Economy / Speculation / Re: Israel accuses Syria of act of war... demand for bitcoin to rise? on: May 05, 2013, 09:26:20 PM
This topic is just so weird.

Yup ... ifs fucked up

People dying ... quick, lets see if we can profit from it. Is that really who you want to be and how you want to get rich ?
Fine ... if the suit fits, wear it. Does not fit me though ...


it's worse because the only place where these kinds of events affect the bitcoin price in any predictable way is the same place where the Cypriots fueled the latest bubble -- in the delusional minds of irrational bulls.
490  Economy / Speculation / Re: The End Is Near on: May 05, 2013, 09:12:12 PM
It's not a scalability issue...

It is.

From https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/pull/2577:
Quote
Two motivations for this pull:

First, to discourage people from bloating users' wallets and the UTXO set with tiny outputs...

Second, we have no idea what will happen to Bitcoin prices or transaction volume / competition for space in blocks.

it's a little of both. what Jut was trying to say is that it's not a protocol-inherent, bitcoin-fatal scaleability problem, it's a scaleability problem with the current incentives given the recent activity in the blockchain.

i really don't see the fuss about this change, Gavin is NOT our 'king'. miners and users will settle this democratically, as always.
491  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another analyst :) on: May 05, 2013, 08:08:30 PM
Lucif, I agree with the symmetrical triangle. But what makes you think it will break down and not up ?

It is much lower than 260 top, and break above 170 is very unlikely according to daily and weekly bollinger bands and standard deviations. So i conclude price will go sideways in 90-160 range forming triangle like that. It can develop up to end of June.

As long as triangle is closer to 50 low rather than 260 high, I conclude it shows the correction after 50 low, not the 260 high.

i see the massive triangle consolidation pattern, but if you 'zoom out' it looks more like a bullish wedge. would you say an upwards breakout is possible?
492  Economy / Speculation / Re: Real crash/correction coming. on: May 05, 2013, 08:06:02 PM
If price strikes above 130 by Monday, then I may have to retract my claim that price would be below $100 come June, as that would be a strong indicator that the bear market is over.

if the price strikes X in one day, then your midterm calculations get changed? check your scales, there... we're still in a period of high-volatility consolidation since the crash. this price oscillation isn't really significant.  we won't know bull/bear midterm until it breaks out of this consolidation decisively in 2-4 weeks.
493  Economy / Speculation / Re: Real crash/correction coming. on: May 05, 2013, 08:48:46 AM
I targeted 107 as the strike price for the weekend, which was already hit, but the decline should return back near the end of Sunday or shortly after, as for what happens between then, the price could stagnate or potentially still rally to the 130s considering the strong rally that led prices up to 116

my analysis has shown similar, if not more bullish projections. by fractal analysis, price could reach at most $130 by this time tomorrow, with a continued rise up to at most $150 on Monday and Tuesday, then a major correction by Wednesday.
494  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 05, 2013, 05:37:34 AM
No steady downtrend of volume and the slope of the center of the opening to the point is basically a trend line.

the volume pattern is there, and how does the second point invalidate the wedge?
495  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 05, 2013, 05:09:23 AM
Why would you call this bearish? The last wedge with a similar shape from 80 to 100 has been proven as bullish


bearish wedge coming to a close right now. midnight dump?

4-hour scale:

-===-



wedges are usually reversal signals, the last wedge was an exception. i tend to try to identify the patterns and then use other data to determine the directionality. William's Oscillator suggests short-term overbought, poising for a slight correction:

-===-

10-day hourly scale



-===-

also, depth on bitcoinity has a bearish bias.
496  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 05, 2013, 05:01:26 AM
bearish wedge coming to a close right now. midnight dump?

4-hour scale:

-===-

497  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 05, 2013, 04:25:46 AM

bearish wedge coming to a close right now. midnight dump?
498  Economy / Speculation / Re: China : The next price bump on: May 05, 2013, 04:11:16 AM
point to good news in a bull market --> "THIS is why the price is going up!"

point to bad news in a bear market --> "THIS is why the price is going down!"

you guys are delusional.
Tell that to the current rally when the largest exchange is currently being sued for breach of contract,lol.Many here believed the last rally was due to the speculation that many within Cyprus would move to Bitcoin......now we have the second largest economy in the world having an interest over the last few days.

let me give you a hint. that had nothing to do with the rally today, except for the people who bought because they thought others would buy on said news. do you really think Cypriots were behind the bubble? or people buying on the Cyprus news, because we were already in an uptrend?
499  Economy / Speculation / Re: China : The next price bump on: May 05, 2013, 04:00:39 AM
point to good news in a bull market --> "THIS is why the price is going up!"

point to bad news in a bear market --> "THIS is why the price is going down!"

you guys are delusional.
500  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 04, 2013, 08:07:04 PM
i'm sick and tired of taking abuse, but no praise. i hope you TA-naysayers who wrote off my analysis because it was 'obvious' that we were going straight to $50 buy at the top of this minibull.
You want to be praised? Haha, for what - seeing 10k wall and figuring out it won't get below it.

see? you're still simply writing off my work. this is why i asked you not to comment, because your opinions are clear, and the sarcasm isn't necessary.

i ask for neither praise nor abuse. but one without the other is not honest.
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