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521  Economy / Speculation / Re: Should bounce at about $100 on: May 02, 2013, 09:54:55 PM
This is the down trend we're in just now, looking for support at $100 give or take.



(chart taken from a bit earlier today, 1 month log chart)

what points are you using to define this channel? top line seems to have two, but bottom line only has one, unless you can argue for the significance of the top of that bull trap.
522  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: May 02, 2013, 07:17:56 AM

overall i agree with your post. but my contention has been whether or not you will actually find usable, valid information from which you can profit from, merely by looking at charts of past prices and drawing lines and BIGMACd indicators and looking for shape of erections developing. i exaggerate for humor, but nonetheless the point remains. and in this post of yours, you dont really talk about charting techniques which is probably why i am not in disagreement


i'm glad we're mostly in agreement Smiley

you're right of course, all this is fine and dandy but i've got to show that the specific methods of technical analysis are effective at 'uncovering' these patterns. i find that standard indicators like the MACD do indicate simple trends well, as i mentioned earlier, and the properties of price momentum are really effectively displayed by oscillators.

not only do real-world things like closed banks cause regularities, but patterns in human behavior as well. the convenient thing is, we don't have to hypothesize about social psychology -- we just have to rigorously show a pattern in the data.

for the trend-following example, we tend to overreact, and push the price into 'overbought' and 'oversold' states (these are metaphors, admittedly, but give a decent understanding of what the oscillators represent). recognizing that we are in these unstable states helps you anticipate price movement, given other market conditions. i'm reminded of a striking example of this during the rally to $160:

-===-

update 6:

10-day 2-hourhourly scale



-===-

'moving support' here even more robust than the scaled chart i sent out in emails, showing the insane momentum of this last push. we're gonna start running out of space, soon, though. picking up some risk here.

update 6:

more trendline magic!

William's %R 10-DAY 1-HOUR scale

-===-



-===-

downward breakout associated with a correction to the uptrend, as projected from update 5. 50-line bounce is very bullish, and we seem to have found support at a lower line.
523  Economy / Speculation / Re: smart or dumb? on: May 02, 2013, 06:56:43 AM
earlyer today i dumped half my coins. then put buy orders in at 101, 90, 80, and hail marry 60, now with it going up a bit....or at least steady at 115-120 did i just loos in the game of catch the dead cat?

i want bitcoins to shoot to the moon but i cant deny the pattern of a ball that has been thrown in the air and now bouncing but with each bounce loosing the kinetic energy it once had.

bam physics in your cup-o-bitcoin.  

it is just like physics ain't that cool? Cool
524  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: May 02, 2013, 06:46:50 AM
Think we will ever be on the underside of 50 again?

Thanks
yes sell your coins today and double them tomorrow. ( no way in hell... )

then buy a really big boat!  Cheesy

i'd love to hear what arepo thinks about this.

under 50 ever again? what are the odds Mr Spock

i'd hate to be a talking head, but i'll put in my two cents if you insist. Tongue

imho, determining the odds of the price being at a certain point "ever again" is pretty futile. i liked ichthyos model of a gaussian curve for a model of the probability of 'ever' reaching a price point 's' standard deviations away from the present price, or the mean historical price. in this model, the probability of a price point s deviations away approaches zero as s -- > infinity, but is nonzero for all such points.

for time-scales:

short-term: unlikely
mid-term (this year): possible
long-term: see above
525  Economy / Speculation / Re: Short-term target? on: May 02, 2013, 06:37:38 AM
straight to zero, of course Roll Eyes

edit:
Currently, results look like normal distribution...

...centred roughly at the current price
with a bias to slightly lower values in the centre of weight,
but with a more developed tail on the up side

this is a really good model. the normal distribution is a probabilistic representation. i wonder how one would go about calculating the skew?

Skew = (mean - median ) / (standard deviation)

executing that on historical price data would be simple. the question is, is it a functioning indicator? is the height above the peak of the distribution indicative of deviation from a trendline? time-scale matters here as well.
526  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: May 02, 2013, 06:29:09 AM
i understand all of the terminology. i dont understand what point he is trying to make.

at one point he claims that prices are random and that is their nature, which is a joke of a claim. then he claims that he can find "coded" information in previous prices. confusingly, he also used similar terms when trying to spout the EMH, which is contradictory

yes, i kind of stitched together bullet points of a sort of thesis i'm trying to develop. i apologize for the disorganization.

let me try to build a bridge between the ideas you just mentioned:

the emphasis on information is because trading is a limited information game. this is separate from the price function, which is stochastic, essentially random, which is exactly why no methods of technical analysis can produce 100% confidence.

take the 'weekend dip'. once a thread about it was posted and trafficked to saturation, the effect stopped happening. why? because traders selling early friday and buying back in sunday, profited off of this information asymmetry, anticipating that others were going to sell and undercutting them.

these regularities have been shown to exist, and i do believe they violate the strong form of the EMH, which would imply that a good is at its 'true price' at all times in the marketplace. in practice this falls quite short of ideal. remember how the price doubled suddenly after a long period of consolidation a few months before the block reward halving? the suddenness of the onset of the price discovery phase suggests that the way that price-relevant information is factored into the price is far from ideal, and if you have meta-information -- information of another players' future actions -- you can undercut them profitably.
527  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: May 02, 2013, 06:12:32 AM
I'm not on a bandwagon, just tired of people coming to an analysis thread to complain about analysis  Never take any advice in these forums without a few pounds of salt.

i actually appreciate this kind of discussion, johnblaze made a good point, and showed he had thought about it critically. it just bothers me when someone comes out of the woodwork and posts a dismissive comment with no constructive criticism at all Cheesy
528  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: May 02, 2013, 06:09:45 AM
i have no idea what that block of rambling is suppose to prove, other than to convince yourself that your methods have validity. it was not clear at all what point you were trying to make, and it was irrelevant to the disucssion:

i'm sorry if it was dense. and i realize now i didn't exactly connect it to what i quoted. let me try to summarize more clearly:

"""TA can work even if the two conditions you noted are not met. i propose the following:

a trader using the methods of TA attempts to extract more information from the available price data than others who are not looking for regularities (not doing any analysis).

this creates a difference in the information available to each 'player'. this is profitable for the same reason 'insider trading' is profitable."""

i hope i was able to communicate my meaning this time.
529  Economy / Speculation / Re: Short-term target? on: May 02, 2013, 05:48:17 AM
straight to zero, of course Roll Eyes

edit:
Currently, results look like normal distribution...

...centred roughly at the current price
with a bias to slightly lower values in the centre of weight,
but with a more developed tail on the up side

this is a really good model. the normal distribution is a probabilistic representation. i wonder how one would go about calculating the skew?
530  Economy / Speculation / Re: What Technical Analysis and Elliot Wave Theory IS and IS NOT on: May 02, 2013, 05:45:44 AM
Technical Analysis (TA) is NOT about prediction. TA is about probabilities. It is about the Analysis of price data.

Hey, come on, you are bending words here...

What is the point of any Analysis, and what is the point of determining any probabilities, if the final goal would not be to do predictions or draw any kind of conclusions for the future?

Why are you guys so utterly dishonest? You go through great lengths of building up methods, graphs, indicators and all that stuff. Everything of this kind aims at the purpose to create knowledge which is objective, reliable, indicative, relevant, verifiable and thus worth to share. You go through great pains to add a paint of seriousness and relevance. You (=the proponents of technical analysis) take on the attitude of teaching other people, of knowing and showing what is really going on, under the seemingly random surface.

And then you label your results as "subjective" and generally irrelevant -- which in this context means there is no point in publishing your results.


To use a metaphor: A guy who builds a canon, and then claims this has nothing to do with firing and destroying a target.


Thus: Either you guys have the balls to come up with something which is not subjective, and which can withstand a methodical verification, or otherwise just s.t.f.u.

do you rage at your weatherman, too, because he's not 100% accurate, yet reports on his projections every day?
531  Economy / Speculation / Re: What Technical Analysis and Elliot Wave Theory IS and IS NOT on: May 02, 2013, 05:44:49 AM
excellent explanation, rynin! thanks for the write-up Smiley
532  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: May 02, 2013, 05:41:15 AM

this would make sense, if two things were true:

1. the majority of the trading volume was made up from people using TA
2. the TA that they used were all the same

i reckon that neither of those two are true. 1. is pretty straightforward. most of the volume in the markets is pure speculation and/or silkroad, not from people looking at charts and making disciplined trades. 2. is blatantly not true, as you can easily open up any two TA threads in this forum and find hacked up charts with wildly differing lines drawn at the most random places

keeping it short, but hopefully clear:

the effects of 'insider trading' suggest that price-relevant information is not factored into the price in an ideal way, but the Efficient Market Hypothesis suggests that most relevant information is 'encoded into' or somehow represented in price -- this information including market sentiment, greed/fear, risk-aversiveness of other players, and the like.

this leads to the idea that profitable information asymmetries between players can form for short periods of time.

from a mathematical point of view, it has been shown (see the Hurst exponent) that autocorrelations exist in price data -- that is, regularities which can be profitably anticipated.

as such, in a simple way, technical analysis is an analysis done on price data to find patterns -- essentially, identifying how the price is deviating from its natural stochastic (random) nature.

and this demonstrably occurs! trend-following is very successful in certain market conditions (see goomboo's journal). this leads to the idea of 'momentum', that it is statistically unlikely for the price to suddenly violate a trend. another simple strategy is measuring the 'rate of change' of price, because 'momentum changes before price changes' follows from basic rules of derivatives in calculus.

i hope i have showed you how it is possible to get at information that may be 'coded' into the price, that others do not have access to, that creates a profitable information asymmetry between players.

--arepo
533  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: May 02, 2013, 05:27:43 AM
I didn't outline any pennants, but it looks good so far with the bounce to $118.

sorry about that, i must have just read a post of yours when i was writing that. Tongue at least i didn't name electric -- he hates triangles hah

edited in the original

--

i always find it fascinating how many layers of self-similarity there are in the price function. this is the third 'public test' of fractal analysis, which i'm a little suspicious of because it is lacking in rigor in that it is just as prone to apophenia as elliot waves. i've been outlining a number of shapes that i can define in rigorous terms, and once that list is complete i intend to do statistical analysis on price history data to hone the method's precision.

until then i've been focussing on the 'bubble shape', a type of bearish reversal that occurs across varying scales in many bullruns in bitcoin price history. i've identified three versions of this pattern in price data since just April 1, and used their shape with great success in anticipating price movements in similar market conditions. it's just an amazing idea that the larger shape of price can mimic smaller structures that have already formed within its history, exactly like a mandelbrot set!

since the 'fractal hypothesis' is still in its infancy, i encourage feedback from the sharper minds of the community Smiley i've learned so much from other posters here, that i've come to see it as a community of very intelligent people, and an excellent collaborative atmosphere for new ideas,

--arepo
534  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 02, 2013, 01:53:34 AM
Thanks captain obvious. Nothing gets by you TA guys.

we don't have to be enemies... this is a community Smiley i have nothing against you, fitty.

Agree, things are really breaking down in here.

bear markets make people really unhappy Tongue also tons of newbies who haven't acclimated to etiquette and such. i'm not surprised proudhon left  Undecided
535  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 02, 2013, 01:49:03 AM
Thanks captain obvious. Nothing gets by you TA guys.

we don't have to be enemies... this is a community Smiley i have nothing against you, fitty.
536  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: May 02, 2013, 01:43:43 AM
*10-day hourly scale*



-===-

looking awfully oversold on the short-term scale. the downward momentum has been exhausted. i expect a downwards breakout from the pennant evolve outlined, but we won't break under the $100 support.

-===-



-===-

instead, the oversold signal confirms some fractal analysis that suggests we'll retest but bounce significantly into a larger bearish pennant, peaking and then breaking downwards again to test the $100 support in the next 48 hours.

-===-



-===-

will $100 hold then is not yet clear.

--arepo
537  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 02, 2013, 01:28:24 AM
MtGox raided/shutdown by Friday...

http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-966426

...FUD story is being trolled about in btc-e and has already made it to the twitter churnalists. Don't normally see these get this amount of early traction. Hoping it won't go viral & affect the market.  Roll Eyes

Posted  by the same person who wrote this...
http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-957375

same person? i smell an agenda.
538  Economy / Speculation / Re: bitcoin is going to bounce up this week on: May 02, 2013, 01:26:43 AM
Yea, all of sudden everyone's a bear.

market sentiment lags price perfectly.
539  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: May 02, 2013, 01:21:10 AM
because there is nothing constructive about TA, even if you did it correctly. but you are just drawing random lines

but dont worry, you can chalk up losses to "overtrading" or "lack of discipline" like Mark Douglas and all the other failure TA traders

There is a method to the madness however. Because everyone - whether they would like to believe it or not - when they look at a chart, see patterns and associate something with them based on some prior experience, etc. As a consequence, the pattern comes to fruition, and the people that saw the pattern and decided to hold/sell/buy wrote their own future. TA, at least in my opinion, to a certain extent comes down to math and the psychological aspect of trying to figure out what everyone else is thinking about before they know it themselves.

good point -- as i like to say, if there are methods that work, they can be considered functional analysis. if there aren't, why is everyone here wasting their time with a cointoss? there's satoshidice for that Tongue

i think the bear market is rustling all the newbies' jimmies Wink
540  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: May 02, 2013, 12:56:26 AM
because there is nothing constructive about TA, even if you did it correctly. but you are just drawing random lines

but dont worry, you can chalk up losses to "overtrading" or "lack of discipline" like Mark Douglas and all the other failure TA traders

there are many others threads on this board dedicated to the question of whether or not methods of TA can be considered 'effective'. if you'd like to have that conversation, you can continue it there, or at least supply some kind of new argumentation besides the bald assertion that it doesn't work because it doesn't.

as i said before (i'd hate to be the tyrant who self-moderates) so discussion and presentation of TA ITT please. (assertions don't count as discussion Tongue)

--arepo

edit: it's hilarious how quiet this thread was as my many projections last week unfolded, but as soon as i get one thing wrong, the TA-naysayers are back Cheesy
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