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581  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 01, 2013, 10:14:36 AM
Markets are strange beasts, they like to thoroughly sample every price up and down, lots and lots of times.

The market explored the area $90-$95 very well, (just like before the April 11th peak). It then shot from $97 to $135 very quickly. Although it has explored back to $125 quite well, it has not done the region $97 to $125 since. It seems like it wants to spend time in that range, at least around $115, before the next main trend kicks off.

that seems to be where we're heading:

582  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: May 01, 2013, 10:11:39 AM
The sell orders on clarkmoody are still creeping up. The buys are still creeping down. I am holding my base BTC's and sold some bought at higher levels as I don't want to take a chance should we retest the 50-70 range. I am hoping we do go back down there so I can double up what I sold off. If not, live and learn...

IAS

based on some fractal analysis, the lowest feasible bottom is around $90. i suspect that's where the support will be if we break $120.

it's amazing, but we're still 'consolidating' in huge, week-long swings from the 10 April crash:

-===-



-===-

modeling this with the classic triangle consolidation pattern, we get a similar picture, but unfortunately, it's difficult to tell what the slope of the bottom support is. if it is a flat-bottomed triangle, then $90 will be the support (yellow line); if it is a symmetrical triangle, we may see prices even lower (white line) before we reach the short-term bottom.

--arepo
583  Economy / Speculation / Re: Silk road down for over 24 hours now. on: May 01, 2013, 09:44:51 AM
The site is back up now, no telling how long.  I think over 50% have faith in DPR and will not try to mass sell.  At least I hope for the sake of bitcoin.  No telling how long this uptime will last once the jackasses return.  Let's hope they did some good engineering and things will remain up a while.

Any idea how the timing coincided with the recent downspike to $127?

I wonder if this entire situation could have been engineered to produce a large downspike.

i'm fairly confident that these selloffs were a significant proportion coins of SR vendors. that being said, the market was also severely overbought short- and long-term.
584  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 01, 2013, 09:43:33 AM
IMHO $125 is VERY important, I will say just that, of course I'm not analyst and don't listen to me.
i am an analyst and i concur Wink

if we break $125, we're going to test $120 again. bulls better hope that holds, or else there be bears ahead.
585  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 01, 2013, 09:41:54 AM
It's astonishing what a little DDOS and an even smaller dump can do

Erm no, there has been no DDoS on Mt Gox for days now.

there was a DDoS performed by what seemed like a bot for about 15 min that brought gox lag up to approx. 10 min.

this occurred a few hours ago.
586  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 01, 2013, 09:20:44 AM
It's astonishing what a little DDOS and an even smaller dump can do

... these are not the only market forces coordinating this sell-off ...

this forum consistently underestimates the complexity of the price function, generally speaking. too many n00bs methinks.

stop thinking you know how shit works already and deign to try to figure some of it out, why dontchya?

DDoS and manipulator are both tinfoil hat responses -- they were involved but not solely responsible.
587  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 01, 2013, 09:01:05 AM
Oh you people of little faith! About 1.5 million bitcoins (of the 11 million existing) are in the speculative weak hands. We owners of the larger stash, are busy preying on your smaller stash, and constantly buying more and more of it. Currently bitcoins are hardly even getting distributed in a serious way, since I and the likes of me can still easily live in luxury + earn more bitcoins doing it.

This is mathematically impossible to continue. Bitcoin price will rise Smiley

I can write you puts at $115 if you like. I am able to write for BTC500 at the moment. The price will be decided on by case basis. Preferably just one counterparty thank you.

this means bullish for the long-term, which i can agree with. unfortunately we are severely short-term overbought, are in the midst of a minibear, and are encroaching on an extremely important mid-term support. if you really want the market to do what you want, take your cash and put a wall at $120, else we'll possibly crash right through later today.
588  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 01, 2013, 08:47:01 AM
boom 130$ is gone. sell if you can.

we'll likely test $120 in the next 6 hours. bulls, pray that it holds -- because we're in for a rare bitcoin bear market otherwise...
589  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: May 01, 2013, 08:37:05 AM
I'm not talking about manipulation. Just someone with lots of coin ( that they have acquired at very low prices) that feels like cashing in a few... thousand...   and the cost is almost nothing to him.

i think i understand what you're saying -- for fear of talking at cross purposes, let me clarify what i meant:

say he picks a 'bad time' to dump -- the worst time would be at a market bottom. if he does so, there is a 'cost' of lost profits. also, if the market is 'ready to go up', a dump is just going to be picked up by smart sellers, and there would be very little effect at all.

as such, buyers and sellers don't really have a direct effect on the price, but mesh with 'market conditions' to produce the effect on the price. following from this, you don't have to predict the individual actions of large players, just anticipate the possible effects of any action on present market conditions (which are given by some methods of TA).

--arepo
590  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 01, 2013, 07:17:20 AM
Quote from: giszmo

Quote from: gizmoh

wat
591  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 01, 2013, 07:15:07 AM
5 minutes lag ? when its done we will be under 100$ i primiss you Cheesy

on clark moody there's a bot going wild..

looks like an intentional DDoS attack. spam-selling smallest units possible at a decent rate.

almost 10 minutes of lag now... im not sure if people are panicking or if this attack is single-handedly taking gox down...
592  Economy / Speculation / Re: So... gox is being flooded with orders for 0.00 on: May 01, 2013, 07:13:42 AM
lag >7 min now, most definitely directly because of this.
593  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 01, 2013, 07:12:08 AM
5 minutes lag ? when its done we will be under 100$ i primiss you Cheesy

on clark moody there's a bot going wild..

looks like an intentional DDoS attack. spam-selling smallest units possible at a decent rate.
594  Economy / Speculation / Re: So... gox is being flooded with orders for 0.00 on: May 01, 2013, 07:10:15 AM
i see that. there's been a whole lot of questionable price action on gox these days....

i'm starting to regret so many people knowing about bitcoin -- it always attracts the worst first  Tongue
595  Other / Off-topic / Re: $1 Trillion Bitcoin on: May 01, 2013, 07:07:06 AM
Saying X has been observed doesn't communicate anything until we both know what we are talking about when we say "X."

i'm sorry that you don't know high school physics. i'm not going to be pedantic and type out the basic definition of these quantities if you're not going to do the legwork to inform yourself.

it would behoove you to honestly learn about a topic before passing such judgments.

you can start here.
596  Other / Off-topic / Re: $1 Trillion Bitcoin on: May 01, 2013, 06:42:23 AM
Mother nature doesn't like singularity , that's why you don't see it,  ever .

Except, um, black holes?

Black holes are nonsense, because infinite gravity is nonsense (literally a meaningless string of words). /OT

Nonsense words are the main currency of theoretical math and physics: words like point, set, line, plane, mass, force, gravity, momentum, space, infinity, time, and most of the rest - words that seem like they have a definite single meaning but actually don't. (Engineering, where math and physics actually hit road, has real-world/market tests that largely weed that stuff out or work around it in a way that sequesters the silliness.)

To bring this back on topic ...

before we get back on topic, someone needs to speak in defense of physics after all of this genuine nonsense.

black holes are not nonsense, they are observable. we can't fully explain these observations, mainly because they 'break' our theories (giving results like infinite gravity, etc.)

further -- mass, force, and gravity are all very, very real and observable things. conservation of energy and conservation of momentum, for instance, are laws that every single system in the universe obeys (or so we've seen so far). to say that these are 'nonsense words' that are merely 'theoretical' is laughable.

anyway, carry on. and it would behoove you to honestly learn about a topic before passing such judgments.
597  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: May 01, 2013, 06:36:43 AM
You can try to predict the actions of the masses with some success but not the action of 1 or 2 people and that's all it takes to move things considerably in this market.

again, the basis of my argument against the perceived 'absolute power' or manipulators, or even just traders with large amounts of capital proportional to the market cap, is that the self-regulating nature of the market makes direct price manipulation proportionally expensive to its magnitude.

this being said, it shouldn't necessarily "break" the various methods of TA. for instance, it's interesting that the large move was timed perfectly with the triangle consolidation. these moves are more predictable than you think.

--arepo
598  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Price Is Still on Track on: May 01, 2013, 05:52:55 AM
We'll pass that $266 mark as fast as we passed the $32 mark in the fulness of time.

this. patience, bulls  Tongue

we're still consolidating with decent levels of volatility from the crash. once these tremors have finally settled, which will probably not be for another month, the never-ending bull run will continue.
599  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: May 01, 2013, 04:46:52 AM
I could save you some time - someone dumped 10k coins, and some others dumped 2 x 5000 earlier. People were not buying in masses in meantime.

That's it, I should patent a name for it, DUMPA20000 or something  Grin

yes, i was watching, and it was clear that the dump was a single or a few entities, not an emergent movement. there's a lot of bearish news in the air, and the market is short-term overbought. i'm trying to determine if we should expect $120 to hold, or if we're gearing up for a correction-to-the-correction of the bullish move to $165. i highly suspect these individuals were attempting to 'paint the tape', as a very bullish consolidation turned very suddenly into a very bearish picture. this event will be good to consider in another problem i'm working on, can/does price manipulation break standard methods of TA?.

also, you saved me precisely no time, because while it may seem 'obvous' that your hypothetical explanation is correct, it is not rigorous enough -- only a fool should be so sure of why any particular price movement occurs.

--arepo
600  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: May 01, 2013, 04:34:59 AM
Broke out the wrong way  

Again stop using triangles dammit.

why should i? the breakout was anticipated perfectly, the direction not so much. working on an accountability report right now, trying to determine the factors that contributed to the failure of the last projection.

--arepo
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