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601  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 01, 2013, 04:29:33 AM


i know it's against  todays experience.. but .. ..     to me looks like bullish. 


nope, this is bearish. latest triangle broke down, hard -- that was the first sign.

-increasing ask depth, decreasing bid depth, bid/ask depth crossover -- bearish

-MACD crossover -- bearish

-StochRSI entering oversold zone -- bearish

-RSI resting on mid-term trend line -- neutral/high risk for bulls

--arepo
602  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: April 30, 2013, 12:31:52 PM
Thanks for this lesson on TA Arepo. Smiley I will consider donating some Bitcoins to you in the future, maybe give back a slice of my earnings.

You said we would break upwards soon. Can you estimate how high we're going to go? Or is that just off limits right now?

i try to avoid posting price targets publicly, but the key levels here as we're just pulling out of a short downtrend are just the previous highs -- this is generally where we will encounter resistance:

-===-



-===-

$148, $162, $166

if we get past $166 this would be very bullish and we could overshoot to around $180. however, the market is overbought in the short-term so it is likely that we bounce off of $166 and correct slightly first.

--arepo
603  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: April 30, 2013, 09:33:48 AM
we are consolidating very bullishly, and are nearing an upwards breakout:

-===-

*10-day 1-hour scale*



-===-

notes:

(1) price following strong (3-pt) moving support
(2) Accumulation/Distribution confirms this trend
(3) CCI also confirms this trend
(4) Bullish midline crossover in the Stochastic RSI
(5) Bullish midline bounce in the Slow Stochastic Osc.

here's some direct price analysis:

-===-



-===-

top marked by high volume, consolidation marked by low volume, anticipating a spike in volume with the upwards breakout to confirm "trend continuation".

--arepo

604  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: April 30, 2013, 06:12:53 AM
for reasons of transparency and accountability, i want to make the price report which i opened this thread with publicly available, as the projections and analysis it contains have expired some time ago. for anyone who wasn't involved and is curious to see its contents, i've uploaded it in pdf format for free download*: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Report [22 April 2013]

i just want to thank everyone who was involved again for supporting me in this project, and if i informed your profit, consider making a small donation to bitcoincharts, clarkmoody, and bitcoinity, as these are all services which i leverage intensely in my analysis.

*please know that this is my own work and i do not permit profiteering off of it, only free dissemination and duplication.


thanks again, notme!

fixed the link in the original.

feedback is encouraged! Smiley

--arepo
605  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: April 30, 2013, 05:53:37 AM
how to download this w/o having to sign up?

sorry about that... working on finding a better host right now.

--arepo
606  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: April 30, 2013, 05:42:25 AM
I can't figure out how to download that without getting a warning about malicious downloads.  If you email it to the address in my profile I'd be happy to throw it up somewhere without needing to figure out which download link is legit and which is an ad trying to get me to download malware.

testing it myself, it seems google chrome gives the 'this file may harm your computer' warning just because it is a pdf. i admit that i used a particularly ad-infested upload site -- if anyone knows of a better site, or has a server that can host the file for me, that would be helpful.

edit: is that what you were offering? i'm emailing it to you right now.
edit2: your email address appears hidden.

--arepo
607  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: April 30, 2013, 05:28:41 AM
Quote from: arepo
fractal analysis

with all this talk about fractal analysis, i haven't really explained much what the methods consist of. for this reason, and for reasons of transparency and accountability, i want to make the price report which i opened this thread with publicly available, as the projections and analysis it contains have expired some time ago. for anyone who wasn't involved and is curious to see its contents, i've uploaded it in pdf format for free download*: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Report [22 April 2013]

i just want to thank everyone who was involved again for supporting me in this project, and if i informed your profit, consider making a small donation to bitcoincharts, clarkmoody, and bitcoinity, as these are all services which i leverage intensely in my analysis.

--arepo

*please know that this is my own work and i do not permit profiteering off of it, only free dissemination and duplication.
608  Economy / Speculation / Re: I think it's time for me to move on on: April 30, 2013, 04:57:14 AM
Here's the thing - I really like bitcoin.  Every time I actually use the system, I'm instantly reminded of why I thought this thing was so cool in the first place.  In a way, I've become a victim of my own trolling, just as some of you have suggested.  Here's my story.

I found out about bitcoin in late February/early March 2011.  A few weeks after investigating the idea I decided to start mining.  My decision to mine instead of buy outright was motivated by the fact that I was in the market for a new gaming PC anyway, and so mining was a sort of hedge against the market working against me.  I turned my machine off a few months after the 2011 crash.  I also bought a fair number of bitcoins before May 2011.

I was enthusiastic about bitcoin and new to markets and trading.  The 2011 crash was depressing and it changed me.  This, despite that I was lucky to more than double the number of bitcoins I mined and bought before the crash.  The project began to look like the sort of thing that was being torn apart inside an out.  I became a vicious troll, because, in a perverse way, I wanted to help what seemed like the project's inevitable end.

At some point my awful trollishness became too much and I issued an apology for my tone, but not my content.  I trolled on, just with less vitriol.  As the project recovered I began to fight with myself.  My trollish character had sort of developed a mind of its own, even as I began to appreciate bitcoin's innovation and value again.  I developed a sense of obligation to the community to post as Proudhon The Toll because of a community expectation and, in a way, to balance out over-zealousness with the same thing in the other direction.

When I switched gears and began posting bullishly not long after this most recent crash I was playing to the joke that I had become a sort of contrary indicator.  "Playing" the character of a more even-headed optimist made me realize that, well, that's not really a character, because I am actually optimistic about bitcoin, even if cautiously.

This is sort of a good-bye to the speculation forum, though I might stick around and respond here for a little while.  I intend to spend more time discussing bitcoin, and cryptocurrency in general, in political/economic/and philosophical contexts, and so you'll find me posting on bitcointalk.org and other places in areas more suitable for those sorts of discussions.  It's been extremely educational, depressing, exciting, frustrating, and fun around here.  I think I've ultimately learned what I needed to learn from the speculation forum - I'm not a bitcoin trader, I'm an investor and a user.  And yes, my paper wallets are safe and sound.

having lurked since winter 2011, i can really appreciate this character development. thanks for sharing Smiley

--arepo
609  Economy / Speculation / Re: It's impossible for EVERYONE to benefit on: April 30, 2013, 04:54:55 AM
Do you understand that it's impossible for everyone to win?

Speculation of bitcoins is just a way for people to steal from each other...  there will always be losers and winners, it is not much different from gambling

people put their money together and whoever exchanges his bitcoins at the right time will make a profit (and someone will have to take the equal loss)

whereas exchanges like mt.gox will continue to make profit either way

I know this is very basic but after reading this forum I am not sure if everyone understand this

so it's impossible for everyone to benefit, my guess is that numbers are close to 25-30% of people stealing from the rest (or making profit) similar to Forex

learn2gametheory and it'll seem less confusing/dumb.

and yes, i do think everyone realizes this, although when irrational bullish greed starts clouding this basic concept, it's usually a market top.
610  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: April 30, 2013, 04:51:00 AM
everyone ready for the next leg up? breakout in three... two... one...

Ready !  Cheesy
That's probably a really bad sign ! Capitualtion ... what the heck ... I was just cmpletely wrong ...

BTW, what are you basing this latest prediction on ?

alcohol and greed Wink [notice the complete lack of substance or technical defense of the claim]

i was inebriated and shouldn't have really been on the forums or daytrading at all  Cheesy my bad.

passed out and sobered up, and what we're seeing now is a manifestation of this pattern:

it's hard to say, but some fractal analysis suggests that we're going to see a quick rise to about the last high ($165), a sudden correction, and then consolidation in that range for at least the short-term.

im working on making fractal analysis more rigorous (specifically, more precise) because clearly we fell a little short of my target $165, but i think it's very powerful that i was able to predict the 'shape' of the price so accurately. this was to be a second test of the fractal hypothesis and i think the result can be described as: "plausible". not evidenced explicitly, yet, but i'm excited to do more work on it.

Which way to break, up or down? 



I'm saying up  Wink

as for your question, the market seems balanced right now (indicators neutral). $120 held as anticipated and i doubt we're going to see sub-$120 coins any time soon. extending the above hypothesis, i do anticipate a consolidation period in this range ($120-$150) for about another 12 hours, at least, and then perhaps some serious price movement. unless things suddenly start looking bearish (large dump, etc), that breakout should be up, because sideways is very bullish for bitcoin at this moment.

what do you guys think?

--arepo
611  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: April 29, 2013, 04:18:04 PM
everyone ready for the next leg up? breakout in three... two... one...
612  Economy / Speculation / Re: This is just the beginning of the crash. on: April 29, 2013, 12:49:46 PM
100% agree. With one caveat however, which is the degree: this latest bubble ended a move that's one degree larger than the 2011 bubble, so the subsequent decline should be long and drawn out, but ultimately much deeper. Be prepared for a lot of false rallies that last weeks and weeks, followed by steep drops. We're in one of the largest rallies now, but it should be constrained by the ATH and ultimately lead to a continuation of the bear market.

the bear market is a myth. we just experienced a massive bubble and market correction to the most bullish period in bitcoin history. we stopped short right above the mid-term trend, and $120 held. we retraced 80% in 3 days -- the market quickly and efficiently deflated the bubble. this is nothing like the June event and you are misleading yourself by comparing them.
613  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another analyst :) on: April 29, 2013, 11:55:59 AM
A 3wave down correction confirms that there still up movement left for the (B). (C) Will be confirmed when we get 5waves down and 3 up.
i apologise, but i am not very familiar with specific EW terminology. i can't quite tell if you've answered my question. let me rephrase?

in the model you presented which i quoted, was there any indication of up or down at all? or did you need this price movement confirmation for it to be useful as a predictive model? further, now that you have a confirmation, can you predict the next movement? or is it the same case, and can only be validated after-the-fact?


Well, by text book, confirmation of a higher (B) should be at $167, confirming a higher high.

I get biased for an up move since the correction after the $166 top was a 3 wave formation with a descending triangle that broke up. Though i thought the triangle should have broken down and there should have been another wave down for then a wave II formation to take place (which was my bias).

The breaking up of the triangle makes me change perspective and eliminate the possibility of a 5 wave down for now (only to take place after another move up).

The breaking up of the triangle is the first hint of another leg of (B), but that is confirmed once we go above $167. Right after $167 price should accelerate and struck the $180 (61% fibo retrace) or maybe around $200 which should be the 76% fibo retracement.

i'm not sure if it's just a language barrier, but you seem to maintain more rigor even than lucif Tongue

thanks for the explanation, i'm sure i'll get the hang of EW eventually.
614  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another analyst :) on: April 29, 2013, 11:50:42 AM
They were incomplete. If you don't know that after bearish wave C there is always bullish bounce (at least bounce) - its your problem.

All going according to plan.

this still doesn't make sense to me -- if you knew this, then why did you expect us to break under $120?
615  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another analyst :) on: April 29, 2013, 11:46:37 AM
i can ask you the same question. can you identify the error(s) in your assumptions/model that caused you to have a bearish outlook before today?
I didn't mistaken Smiley That daily triangle has been drawn on 3rd April in this thread.

However I thought 1 wave will go deeper.

i see, as all of your recent "daily candidates" have been bearish. i don't know very much about EW -- i was wondering how one would go about identifying and correcting such an error in one's assumptions or projections in the future?
616  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another analyst :) on: April 29, 2013, 11:38:25 AM
Yeah, breaking up. It may start to draw daily triangle

i can ask you the same question. can you identify the error(s) in your assumptions/model that caused you to have a bearish outlook before today?
617  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another analyst :) on: April 29, 2013, 11:37:31 AM
A 3wave down correction confirms that there still up movement left for the (B). (C) Will be confirmed when we get 5waves down and 3 up.
i apologise, but i am not very familiar with specific EW terminology. i can't quite tell if you've answered my question. let me rephrase?

in the model you presented which i quoted, was there any indication of up or down at all? or did you need this price movement confirmation for it to be useful as a predictive model? further, now that you have a confirmation, can you predict the next movement? or is it the same case, and can only be validated after-the-fact?
618  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: April 29, 2013, 11:29:39 AM
Good call Arepo  Wink

thanks  Grin

it's Monday money -- i really don't understand all the bearishness around here....

that being said i'm anticipating an irresponsible and overzealous rise followed by a correction and then consolidation from there. i'm not sure we're yet ready for higher prices, but we definitely need a bullish correction to that panic selling we saw last week.

--arepo

p.s. keep an eye on the quoted text a few messages above, if we see a similar outcome it will be the second documented confirmation of the fractal hypothesis.
619  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another analyst :) on: April 29, 2013, 11:20:36 AM
OK, triangle broke up...

That leaves us with another possibility, we are still in (B)

so, just for some accountability -- what made you so sure of these statements? :

If this is I of (C) then this is a descending triangle 4 of I of (C), which will make it to a II of (C) that will get to $150 or something like that (61% fibo retrace from $166 as of now. Would be lower, the lower I goes).

What every bull seems to want is for the price to go to $150 without completing the primery trend rules that is 5 waves in favor of trend and 3 contrary of trend.

If we had a bullish market until $266, then right now we are on primary down... doesnt matter how deflationary and how high bitcoin will go, it definetly is in a downtrend for now. And if that is the case then there should be 5 waves down now, we only have 4 since the $166 top of (B). if we have 5 waves down to $100 and then retrace to $150 then have another 5 waves down to maybe $80 or $60, then have another wave up to $120 then another wave to $32 then we have a text book complete correction and then we can go for the $3million or whatever price you think bitcoin should have.

... and how can you identify and correct a similar error in the future?

if you cannot easily answer these questions, as i suspect, then your methods are not rigorous enough.
620  Economy / Speculation / Re: Today is gonna be madness! on: April 29, 2013, 10:07:57 AM
Eliot waves are a type of fractal analysis. it is analysis under the assumption that the price function exhibits self-similarity (like fractals).

Do you have reason to believe such self-similarity should exist and what it would look like?

yes, i've cataloged quite a few shapes, the ones for which i have the most evidence being triangle formations and bubble patterns. these patterns seem to exist on every scale and have common properties across these scales.

the above outline is based on a bubble pattern atop a trend that i found in May 2011 price data. while it is not as rigorous as other methods, i have already used a fractal model with great success to anticipate the shape of this most recent movement up from and back to $120. this is the second test.
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