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621  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: April 29, 2013, 09:04:24 AM
b-b-breakout! right on schedule.

also, some not-so-rigorous musings:

it's hard to say, but some fractal analysis suggests that we're going to see a quick rise to about the last high ($165), a sudden correction, and then consolidation in that range for at least the short-term.

we'll seee...

-arepo
622  Economy / Speculation / Re: Today is gonna be madness! on: April 29, 2013, 09:00:45 AM
some fractal analysis suggests

Is there such a thing, or is it like astrological analysis?

not sure anyone else uses that term, it's a method i've developed myself as an alternative to Elliot Waves.

Eliot waves are a type of fractal analysis. it is analysis under the assumption that the price function exhibits self-similarity (like fractals).
623  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another analyst :) on: April 29, 2013, 08:53:01 AM
no room for these bears, anyway, toot-toot

hey lucif, did you ever figure out why you were a bear during the biggest bitcoin rally ever, yet? Grin did you make the appropriate adjustments to your methods?

also, in all seriousness, this was a meaningful question. i respect the work you do but sometimes i question you rigor.

--arepo
624  Economy / Speculation / Re: In the long run, bitcoin will be worth $0. on: April 29, 2013, 08:03:15 AM
Chimps trade food for sex. http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/04/090407-chimps-meat-sex.html
I don't know if any species actually trades in stored value, though.

on a related note, they can be taught to do so, and they still trade it for sex. Cheesy
625  Economy / Speculation / Re: Today is gonna be madness! on: April 29, 2013, 07:21:38 AM
it's hard to say, but some fractal analysis suggests that we're going to see a quick rise to about the last high ($165), a sudden correction, and then consolidation in that range for at least the short-term.

--arepo
626  Economy / Speculation / Re: Boooooooooooooooorrrrrrrrrrrrrrrriiiiiiiiiiiiiiinnnnnnnnnnnnnngggggggggggg! on: April 29, 2013, 05:15:02 AM
As a long term bull,

I like the fact that the price has been holding steady over $100.

The longer this holds the more it gets engrained into people's psyche that bitcoins are worth more than $100.

Stability also consists of small amounts of volume over time = lots of volume.

Building a base at these prices is really a good thing.

agree, sideways has historically always been bullish.
627  Economy / Speculation / Re: Boooooooooooooooorrrrrrrrrrrrrrrriiiiiiiiiiiiiiinnnnnnnnnnnnnngggggggggggg! on: April 29, 2013, 04:53:32 AM
we'll likely stay in the $120-$160 range in the short term.
628  Economy / Economics / Re: Video: Bitcoin Ponzi scheme on: April 29, 2013, 04:43:18 AM
lawl at hashtag algorithm Cheesy
629  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another analyst :) on: April 29, 2013, 02:28:09 AM
  • Negativity Bias(bears)
  • Optimist Bias(bulls)
  • Hindsight Bias
  • Confirmation Bias
  • Bias Blind Spot
  • Cogntive Dissonance
  • Ad-Hoc Hypothesizing
  • Apophenia
  • Subjective Validation
  • Gambler's Fallacy
  • Expectation Bias
  • Dunning–Kruger Effect
  • Selective Recall
  • Rosy Retrospection

excellent post, and excellent list. Smiley cognitive science and the deconstruction of biases has always fascinated me. have you read anything by Daniel Dennett?

pretty much any predictive science only operates when enough rigor is maintained that the effects of these biases can be controlled, and it is difficult to tell just from analysis that is posted on these forums how rigorous the practitioner's methods are.
630  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: April 29, 2013, 01:54:53 AM
Isn't a downward triangle bearish?

yes, but not necessarily. this has been brought up many times in this thread. i really don't put much stock in the 'standard intuition' of direction based upon the shape of the triangle. it is too subjective to market conditions and is not rigorous enough. i trust directional signals from the many indicators i've tested much more.

this is also why i tried to show the triangle formations in the DPO and TRIX oscillators that are a quite different (and much more bullish) shape, because they also represent the data. price data alone can be misleading.

a brief defense of my bullish interpretation:

(1) Chaikin money flow at highs not seen since the peak at $165
(2) MACD made full recovery into positive zone for the first time since that same peak and crash, and also shows the same bullish triangle consolidation pattern.
(3) CCI and Ultimate Oscillators both show a bullish 50-line bounce during the consolidation

Isn't a downward triangle bearish?

short answer -- yes, but the market seems bullish.

--arepo
631  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: April 29, 2013, 01:37:57 AM
short term update:



so, we're nearing a breakout of the largest triangle, just in time for Monday! more evidence for this in the DPO and TRIX oscillators:

*all charts are 10-day hourly scale*

-===-



-===-

but which way? short-term indicators suggest a bullish picture:

-===-



-===-

i haven't annotated any of these, so for those unfamiliar with these indicators, feel free to ask for clarification regarding my interpretations.

--arepo
632  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another analyst :) on: April 29, 2013, 01:28:44 AM
Why would EW not be applicable here?Huh

If we had a bullish market until $266, then right now we are on primary down... doesnt matter how deflationary and how high bitcoin will go, it definetly is in a downtrend for now.

2 things:

1 -- because external factors like supply/demand and other fundamentals do matter.

for instance, in the run-up from the last ATH to $266, many oscillators were screaming 'overbought' but we did not see a serious correction for a very long time because of an unprecedented influx of money proportional to the market cap.

2 -- you are much too sure.

price is a stochastic function. our models can never lend us so much certainty.
633  Economy / Speculation / Re: does price manipulation break standard methods of TA? on: April 29, 2013, 01:23:18 AM
*The Bitcoin markets are crazy many ways one.
To name two examples, they are crazy small, on the scale of 'real' markets, and
10% of Bitcoins in circulation may at some point have been misappropriated.


**I thought II(b) was likely wrong, (should in any case not be lightly granted.)
But, It seems most of the counter-examples I had in mind could easily be
based on fundamentals, or simply bold, high-risk trades, quite in line with technical analysis.

don't mean to disregard crazy, [ I ] was meant to be an assumption -- we must first assume that TA 'works' before we can discuss if some actors can break its methods.

as for [II]b, that is really the pith and point of this thread. Is there any case in which a rational actor with manipulative potential would make a move that breaks these methods? I can imagine an irrational actor doing so, but only at a loss.

--arepo
634  Economy / Speculation / Re: will recent crash stabilize? on: April 29, 2013, 01:19:45 AM
I'm glad to hear that you arn't a Shodan i always feel like I'm 3 inches tall next to someone like that. I was 6k at my peak.

i've been in the presence of many and i can agree with that sentiment Cheesy

maybe there should be a bitcoin Go tournament?
635  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another analyst :) on: April 29, 2013, 01:15:46 AM
If this is I of (C) then this is a descending triangle 4 of I of (C), which will make it to a II of (C) that will get to $150 or something like that (61% fibo retrace from $166 as of now. Would be lower, the lower I goes).

What every bull seems to want is for the price to go to $150 without completing the primery trend rules that is 5 waves in favor of trend and 3 contrary of trend.

If we had a bullish market until $266, then right now we are on primary down... doesnt matter how deflationary and how high bitcoin will go, it definetly is in a downtrend for now. And if that is the case then there should be 5 waves down now, we only have 4 since the $166 top of (B). if we have 5 waves down to $100 and then retrace to $150 then have another 5 waves down to maybe $80 or $60, then have another wave up to $120 then another wave to $32 then we have a text book complete correction and then we can go for the $3million or whatever price you think bitcoin should have.

The "i know TA, you are the ignorant one" comment is a recursive one... learn to play it well...

unless of course, EW are not applicable here. i try to stay away from them for fear of apophenia  Wink

also, TA refers to a variety of very different methods with different levels of applicability. everyone needs to cool it about 'who knows TA', it's not one thing.

--arepo
636  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another analyst :) on: April 28, 2013, 11:49:15 PM
"Fuck scientific observation of proving points of view... my gut always gets the right answers, because im just a bull and this will never go down."

did i say this? Huh

637  Economy / Speculation / Re: Found support where I hoped on: April 28, 2013, 11:33:59 PM
Not a science more of an art I'd say.

Looks like support on that trendline isn't holding this time, can't be bothered drawing in the lines though. Thin volume, but on the market depth looks like price won't drop too much.

we're in a period of consolidation, and it's the weekend. last weekend broke a short-term trendline, too, but price simply consolidated around the $120 level until a significant breakout up.

what it is important for the bull picture is that we bounced off of the trendline on the way down, and also that we see a breakout up out of this triangle:



--arepo

638  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another analyst :) on: April 28, 2013, 11:26:34 PM
Stop it with the triangles already, if a method does fail multiple times it does not make sense to use it again till it works.

Its not the theory which fails, its the application.

Triangles need to be redrawn how many times necessary until they make the last form, which should show the characteristics of the breakout.


yes, but how many times are necessary? the technique you just described is exactly what many TA-naysayers hate -- constant re-drawing of arbitrary lines that wait for a confirmation to be validated after-the-fact. these methods are not predictive and are of little use.

--arepo
639  Economy / Speculation / Re: How much price will drop this week ? on: April 28, 2013, 11:14:19 PM
we'll probably consolidate between $120 and $160 for most of next week. both bulls and bears are wrong.

--arepo
640  Economy / Speculation / Re: [Sunday, April 29] 7-day chart looks similar to the 30-day chart on: April 28, 2013, 11:10:31 PM
In terms of shape they look very similar, despite the 30-day action being so huge. Sure, the 30-day chart spikes higher, faster and dips lower, but otherwise they looks almost the same. I just reached my phone's data limit otherwise I'd post pics, but are we seeing a fractal pattern?

definitely. there was another such 'bubble top' at the peak up to $130:



--arepo



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