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721  Economy / Speculation / Re: Found support where I hoped on: April 26, 2013, 11:04:54 AM
This is the first TA that actually sounds and looks plausible to me...good work. Smiley




This would mean a growth of ~13% per week. It won't be allowed to go under 130 by tommorow.

you've got it! Wink

that's the trendline we just caught. it's not rocket science haha
722  Economy / Speculation / Re: and the train is pulling away, 4 hours early, right on schedule on: April 26, 2013, 11:01:33 AM
-===-

1-month 6-hour scale:



-===-

there is clearly some error in the data points (the trendline underestimates the actual support), but that bounce is indicative of finding support along a lower trend.


-===-

1-month 6-hour scale:



-===-


only sellers now are sellin at the bottom, pigs gonna pig
723  Economy / Speculation / Re: so much FUD on: April 26, 2013, 10:48:12 AM
SPeculation subforum are flooded with people opening threads after each 3$ movements and it's trolling in my books - plenty of threads where all that could be summed by each of us, no need for trolling boards and making good info harder to find.

i do try not to do this. all of my actual technical analysis is in my price report thread.

and believe me, i don't like smoothie either -- he is just as bad, even if more sane Cheesy

--arepo
724  Economy / Speculation / Re: Found support where I hoped on: April 26, 2013, 10:44:45 AM
I have no idea about TA, but my gut feeling is the following: if we break under $120, next bounce will be at $85ish

And I have the sensation that we will enter in mid-term bear market. Bottom will not be so low as per 2011, and the recovery won't be so slow, because the fundamentals are stronger and the media attention is still positive.


i can agree with you generally. this is a critical moment. recovery from $120 will be short-term bullish, break under $120 will be short-term bearish.

in the meantime, i found another oscillator with an even more precise trendline.

-===-

1-month 6-hour scale:



-===-

lookin good so far...

--arepo

edit: just noticed that random line on the price graph.. you can safely ignore that. i clearly need some sleep after many, many hours of daytrading Cheesy
725  Economy / Speculation / Re: Found support where I hoped on: April 26, 2013, 10:33:55 AM
Thanks for that chart arepo Smiley RSI looks pretty bullish I'd say

yeah, we took a hit but i think we're okay, mid-term.

for some fundamentals, i attribute it to a number of factors, from a growing utility to a growing userbase and increased mainstream exposure.

thanks for checking out my work Smiley it is very cool when you can come to the same conclusion via different techniques-- it's almost as if TA refers to functional, scientific methods. Roll Eyes

--arepo
726  Economy / Speculation / Re: so much FUD on: April 26, 2013, 10:27:13 AM
Actualy many people rather want cash than bitcoins and they sellung out. So be carefull Wink

OP's case in point.

thanks for the support Cheesy

i'm worried that they are actually sockpuppets/malicious actors...
727  Economy / Speculation / Re: arepo's easy TA on: April 26, 2013, 10:25:03 AM
Great thread  Smiley

haha thanks. this is an old thread, and i forgot to thank Ichthyo for his last post, because i did take a step back and reassess the rigor of many of my methods. asking questions like "is this falsifiable?" and "is the error on this trendline measurable?" has helped me become more accurate and more precise.

anyway, i posted the chart in question in your thread so that you wouldn't have to hunt.

--arepo
728  Economy / Speculation / Re: Found support where I hoped on: April 26, 2013, 10:22:29 AM
actually, i now realize that i didn't post it explicitly in the thread, as the original diagram was part of the price report, so my subscribers had a copy.

it looks something like this:

-===-

1-month 6-hour scale:



-===-

there is clearly some error in the data points (the trendline underestimates the actual support), but that bounce is indicative of finding support along a lower trend.

--arepo
729  Economy / Speculation / Re: Found support where I hoped on: April 26, 2013, 10:06:35 AM

some constructive criticism:

this channel isn't very good. at least you have two points, but you need more for a 'robust' line. the reason for this being that a line needs only two points to be defined. that means, there will exist an arbitrary line across any two 'peaks' or 'dips'. in your picture, this is exactly what you've done.

for more robust lines, look closely. try to find a line that has three points of contact or more.

hope this helped Smiley

--arepo

Hehehe I can see why you think my line isn't really valid based on the chart I shared here, (click the link in my sig if you want my full analysis Smiley ) On a three month chart that top line has at least 5 points of contact. Three as support and now 2 as resistance the last two which you can see above. The lower line is one I hoped would be validated (and looks like it is being.)

got the fuller picture -- very good analysis, my apologies. very cool how supports become resistances. if you'd like, i've come to similar conclusions about the trend by identifying patterns in the RSI, and William's %R oscillators, you could take a look at my "arepo's" analysis thread.
730  Other / Off-topic / Re: How to make the most out of the speculation subforum on: April 26, 2013, 10:02:52 AM
thanks!



nifty trick Wink

--arepo
731  Economy / Speculation / Re: Found support where I hoped on: April 26, 2013, 09:55:11 AM


Its looking more and more like we are back on the uptrend. Me thinks no crash, bull mode on.

some constructive criticism:

this channel isn't very good. at least you have two points, but you need more for a 'robust' line. the reason for this being that a line needs only two points to be defined. that means, there will exist an arbitrary line across any two 'peaks' or 'dips'. in your picture, this is exactly what you've done.

for more robust lines, look closely. try to find a line that has three points of contact or more.

hope this helped Smiley

--arepo
732  Economy / Speculation / Re: so much FUD on: April 26, 2013, 09:52:28 AM
I hope mods are going to wake up and ban all people that open more than thread a day unless there's some news in it. That includes you too arepo, you're opening 5 threads a day too, building your so called expert status just to sell your "expert" services later. Keep one thread for your analysis, no need for new threads about each movement, you have more opened threads on first page of speculations than anyone else.

Just as jaroslaw, tesla thant nsomething guy are annoying, bulls were annoying too posting their crap that they found as analysis, the only difference is that other bulls didn't mind it as it was good music for their ears and that these few (tesla, jaroslaw, nsomething) look like they are purposely doing things and they are organized in their attempts as they sound like broken record and keep repeating same stuff like it's one person behind all those accounts.

Nobody give a damn about your "wise thoughts" both of you, just fucking stop spamming the boards.

i'm sorry if you feel that i'm spamming. i really don't think im even close to 5 threads a day, please don't lump me together with those guys. NikolaTesla gets 3 FUD threads and my own posts, which ranged from a glitch i noticed in gox, to my price report, to this thread, are spam? i really attempt to imbue my posts with some substance, at least.

and i hope my price projections are in better esteem than those of the others you mentioned Cheesy

--arepo

733  Economy / Speculation / Re: Forecast for Friday 26/04/13 - Bottom will be $95 on: April 26, 2013, 09:38:20 AM
Why would I regret selling at 135 when the current price is 133?

Bought back in yet?

Nope, I won't buy back in til it goes under 100.

toot-toot he just got to the station and we're pulling away
734  Economy / Speculation / Re: Forecast for Friday 26/04/13 - Low will be $95 on: April 26, 2013, 09:26:58 AM
oh on the 19th. of course.

this morning, when the price was attacking $140, the ticker suddenly displayed $112, it was very strange. this was verified by a few users and was broadcast in the API, some wondered whether it spooked folks into panic selling.
735  Economy / Speculation / Re: and the train is pulling away, 4 hours early, right on schedule on: April 26, 2013, 09:20:35 AM
new local highs?!

no! it can't be! we're in a BEAR MARKET.

right guise?

right?

right?


It's so ridiculous. People clearly demonstrate they are willing to pay a premium, then weak hands get all panicky and dump at the slightest provocation. Then, of course, the price just gradually climbs right back up again, because there is no reason at all for the "crash".

Are people really expecting to invest on day-long timescales?

Can bears just... zoom out their charts... even just a little bit?

p sure this is exactly what happened. too many new traders on the way up from $130 -- they were all weak hands.

something else about a SR sale that saw vendors ending up with large amounts of coins, and needing to cash out to pay their costs, and maybe some of them panicking as well.

lots of panic selling.

and now we're oversold... will slowly climb to the balance point (and hopefully not bullishly overshoot again  Tongue)

-- a sleep deprived arepo
736  Economy / Speculation / Re: Forecast for Friday 26/04/13 - Low will be $95 on: April 26, 2013, 09:15:15 AM
LOW WILL BE 50'S IN A WEEK, FLASH CRASH, HOLD ONTO YOUR HAT

FUD, pig who wants cheap coins at an unfair price, etc
737  Economy / Speculation / Re: Forecast for Friday 26/04/13 - Low will be $95 on: April 26, 2013, 09:14:28 AM
No Nikola is right. I sold at 130, just before he did at 135 (i remember his thread) and not long after my buy order at $111 was triggered (it was very momentary, and recovered almost instantly).

can anyone else verify this? we didn't sell down to 112 though, the bids were untouched. if your order went through then that's a serious problem with gox's trade-matching engine. you had the buy order on gox, right?
738  Economy / Speculation / Re: Its not bottom yet. It will crash under 100 just wait for it. on: April 26, 2013, 09:11:36 AM
nope things are going down, look at the GRAPH

i hate to say it, but past performance does not guarantee future results. you cannot draw the conclusions which you are from that incomplete analysis.
739  Economy / Speculation / Re: and the train is pulling away, 4 hours early, right on schedule on: April 26, 2013, 09:08:17 AM
new local highs?!

no! it can't be! we're in a BEAR MARKET.

right guise?

right?

right?
740  Economy / Speculation / Re: Forecast for Friday 26/04/13 - Bottom will be $95 on: April 26, 2013, 09:02:55 AM

Because at the moment you sold we had another mini rally all the way to 160.
Anyway I don't compare you to the other trolls that are here, I just wanted to give you some feedback on this topic in specific.
Well, in fairness, the price did go down to 112 after I sold. I just didn't buy in after that.
But I do still genuinely think we have a ways down to go. Only 3 months ago the price was $20 and nothing has changed about the fundamentals.

that was a gox glitch low was around $120
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