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761  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another analyst :) on: April 26, 2013, 08:05:03 AM
Lucif stop being such an ass.

haha he is persnickety at times, isn't he?
762  Economy / Speculation / Re: This is just the beginning of the crash. on: April 26, 2013, 08:03:29 AM
there is way too much FUD on this subforum for us to do anything but go right back up...
763  Economy / Speculation / Re: are we in a bear market now?? on: April 26, 2013, 08:02:14 AM
(SMOOTHIE, please dont comment on my post, you troll posts aren't welcome here, we all know you mortgaged your house and  then bought bitcoins at 255 dollars)

764  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: April 26, 2013, 07:59:29 AM
You shouldn't explain these things arepo.. I want to see fud trolls like Jaroslaw and Nikola biting the dirt when bitcoin takes off again. Tongue

haha they'll think what they do no matter what i say, don't worry Tongue
765  Economy / Speculation / Re: This is just the beginning of the crash. on: April 26, 2013, 07:57:08 AM
No smart money is moving in, I guarantee you no smart investors are saying "hey look what the price has been doing the last few weeks, let's put all our money into bitcoin!"

wrong. smart money knows that the best time to purchase an asset is when it is extremely oversold.
766  Economy / Speculation / Re: are we in a bear market now?? on: April 26, 2013, 07:41:55 AM
no. (not yet). bears have failed to break $120. and they probably won't.
767  Economy / Speculation / Re: so much FUD on: April 26, 2013, 07:40:41 AM
Actualy many people rather want cash than bitcoins and they sellung out. So be carefull Wink

... this is the point. who do you think is giving them cash in exchange for those bitcoins? there's a buyer to every seller, and so far every coin has gone for a pretty decent price of >$120, and that's a lot of money for a bitcoin. we absorbed what would have been a devastating knife with a lot of strength, it was impressive.

The amount of trolling on this board last night during the correction, whether from bulls or bears, was just too much. People are losing their heads. I'm quite disappointed with the way things are going here. Everyone's just screaming crash and rally.

yeah it was a shitstorm. trolls who missed the train trolling bulls who mortgaged their houses a week after the crash to BUY BUY BUY trolling bears who only wanted to buy in a little lower, so they were actually bulls but they were really just trolls.

it probably fed into the n00by panic-fest too... the changing face of bitcoin.

but capitulation is good -- the weak hands leave and the strong hands stay, and more n00bs come; bitcoin deflates, and its price slowly.... climbs... up.

and sometimes not-so-slowly
768  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: April 26, 2013, 07:30:00 AM
Tsss, so doom and gloom.
Let us at least touch $120, will you?  Wink

But I admit that 5k @ $121 and 5k @ $120 isn't that much.
So much tension in the air! Weeeeee!

i'm getting more and more suspicious of that never happening as time goes on...

i feel that we are short-term oversold, investor confidence at a local low, etc. most people went to sleep, put their bids at $90 -- hah! the market moves to minimize profits. we'll rebound before the bulk of the money gets back into the market for this reason, if we don't break under $120 soon, and the ask depth didn't exactly fill in...

all i can say is i wish your bid at $120 good luck  Cheesy

--arepo
769  Economy / Speculation / so much FUD on: April 26, 2013, 07:18:40 AM
stay one step ahead Tongue pretty soon these panicky hands will realize that people actually want the bitcoins they're dumping on the market...

770  Economy / Speculation / a midterm projection and minicrash post-mortem on: April 26, 2013, 07:06:01 AM
first, let's ask, why the crash?

take a look at a chart i posted yesterday, the William's %R (oscillator):

-===-



-===-

it's clear that the market was overbought in both the mid-term (yellow) and the short-term (green). the selling pressure from being short-term overbought pushed us to the black trendline i drew -- the selling pressure from being mid-term overbought pushed us past it.

but something else apparently happened today -- can anyone confirm this?

There was a massive, well orchestrated sale on silk road, sort of like a Black Friday of the sorts if you'd want to compare the magnitude of volume which was in operation for the past 48 hours, it just ended today and hence the sell-offs have already started. Most of the vendors are selling off their btc slowly, others not as slow.

if this is the case, then price will recover sharply as soon as the selling pressure tapers, because a huge 'unscheduled' sell-off pushes a market extremely oversold.

i suspect that new traders played an important role as well, possibly panic selling after buying into the overzealous rally (panic and greed in the same week!).

let's look at a chart? (1-month 6-hour scale)

-===-



-===-

Chaikin Money Flow no longer parabolic (good), but is linear and positive, with a positive slope. this is a bullish picture.

As for the MACD, i suspect that many new traders may have been trading on this chart exactly -- the 6-hour MACD! the panic selling started immediately after we saw a bearish crossover there.

for balance to my bullishness, 2-hour MACD shows a double-top bearish picture, with a very bearish zero-line crossover.

i hope $120 holds, for bitcoin's sake.

--arepo
771  Economy / Speculation / Re: Its not bottom yet. It will crash under 100 just wait for it. on: April 26, 2013, 06:55:38 AM
Dont buy yet it will hit 80-90 this week so dont think it cant go under 120 Wink just wait for it.

i'm confident that you are wrong. $90 is the minimum feasible, there's extremely strong support there, so no-go for 80-90

Not all walls are "eaten", some are just "removed"...

it's not a key support because the wall is there, the wall is there because it's a key support.
772  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: April 26, 2013, 06:33:05 AM
Something like this?



still possible, though i assess unlikely from the following:
 
bears lose ammo with every bounce, that is, bounces on high volume are 'exhausting' to the trend.

also, the two bottoms are too symmetric. i haven't noted in this thread, but this pattern should look familiar (see action after first crash to $50). the bottoms of the bounces are almost equal, and their volumes are almost equal.

in other words -- for falsifiability -- if this bounce had significantly lower volume, or did not reach as significantly close to $120, then your model would have better chances.

try to use your bullish intuition, too -- flip the picture upside-down, does it look bearish to you? (double top)

only time will tell...

--arepo

edit: not saying we can't still go down from here, but i think the most bearish situation would be a period of consolidation around this critical resistance before another significant leg down.
773  Economy / Speculation / Re: We`ve hit the top. Now return to "normal" TA on: April 26, 2013, 06:24:31 AM
So whats up guys ? Do you mad that i predict this crash? Just dont worry we will be under 100 soon Smiley

i do so mad..

 Angry so Angry mad Angry
774  Economy / Speculation / Re: Its not bottom yet. It will crash under 100 just wait for it. on: April 26, 2013, 06:22:57 AM
Dont buy yet it will hit 80-90 this week so dont think it cant go under 120 Wink just wait for it.

i'm confident that you are wrong. $90 is the minimum feasible, there's extremely strong support there, so no-go for 80-90
775  Economy / Speculation / Re: Real crash/correction coming. on: April 26, 2013, 05:41:27 AM
I don't know whether or not I should sleep tonight based upon the current activity at Mt Gox, I still haven't bought back in yet.

probably should have done that at $120 Tongue
776  Economy / Speculation / Re: Real crash/correction coming. on: April 26, 2013, 05:41:03 AM
There was a massive, well orchestrated sale on silk road, sort of like a Black Friday of the sorts if you'd want to compare the magnitude of volume which was in operation for the past 48 hours, it just ended today and hence the sell-offs have already started. Most of the vendors are selling off their btc slowly, others not as slow.

if this is true, and it is not a market correction, we're likely to see prices shoot up very quickly once the selling pressure tapers off.
777  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: April 26, 2013, 05:38:49 AM
one word at this time: Capitulation

yeah notice the large volume:

-===-



-===-

this looks even more like a 'double bottom' than my first call. volume is comparable.

--arepo
778  Economy / Speculation / Re: Real crash/correction coming. on: April 26, 2013, 05:17:57 AM
oh how i love shorting the panic....

keep dropping your coins, noob traders!

shouldn't have given them to such weak hands in the first place Tongue
779  Economy / Speculation / Re: Real crash/correction coming. on: April 26, 2013, 04:36:58 AM
There are too many variables to list, but I have reason to believe we are on the verge of a slow and steady downward trend ...

far too much buying pressure for this, imo. deflation is setting in -- in order to counteract it and stay even at least, we need a sustained selling pressure.

i can agree with everything else though Smiley sounds like you know how to manage risk. that is important.

--arepo
780  Economy / Speculation / Re: Real crash/correction coming. on: April 26, 2013, 04:34:15 AM
we are indeed at a critical point, and the charts look very scary. if we break below $120, we could see a mid-term reversal, with new lows unlikely but possible. contrarily, if $120 holds here, it could be very bullish.

i feel like too many new traders were involved in the move past $130 and they all got spooked. if this theory is true, then that was just noise and we'll see consolidation here for a long while. the bulltrap was the first bounce off of $50, by my count. the second bounce had way too much volume at the bottom not to cement a mid-term low. the 'bubble' may be a long-term peak, but i doubt we're going to get action near $50 for a while, if ever.

as such, if we do move down, i suspect we'll bounce off of $90, the next critical price level.
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