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781  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: April 26, 2013, 02:58:23 AM
No, I want a double bottom at $120!  Cheesy

the market intentionally minimizes your profits.

in other words, not only does it not care what you want, if it knows what you want, you won't get it Tongue
782  Economy / Speculation / Re: Real crash/correction coming. on: April 26, 2013, 02:56:05 AM

What do the pros think the price is going to be tomorrow morning based on the current trend?

No pro, but I reckon a minimum floor of 120. It's a long weekend but I wouldn't worry too much -- we came through the last long weekend quite well.

i concur here looks like we're going to consolidate above $120 for a little while.
783  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: April 26, 2013, 02:46:18 AM
I hope $120 will be tested soon... I like the excitement, but I would like to go to bed eventually.

breakout happened on schedule, but i don't think we're gonna make it to $120, which is short-term bullish. some consolidation to follow.


anyway -- still daytrading Cheesy i need to go to bed soon, too, it's been a long day. but for now:

-===-



-===-

double bottom?

--arepo
784  Economy / Speculation / Re: Real crash/correction coming. on: April 26, 2013, 02:18:43 AM
haha what an epic echo bubble... which part is real growth and which part is the bubble, tho?  Wink
785  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: April 26, 2013, 12:30:13 AM
good work on the short Smiley

yes I thought this seemed to be a critical moment and another turning point as it consolidates.

My question was kind of related to the following: If the talk is to be believed then the drop through 140 today would perhaps be in a large part to do with manipulators (I haven't seen evidence and I wasn't watching the charts at the time but I wouldn't discount it). So, that would perhaps imply that the fairly quick bounce back to ~$140 meant that's where the true market sentiment lies as a support? This is uneducated speculation on my part, but that's why I was wondering about the current resting at around $140.

Also trying to decide on a short term re-entry point, hence asking for other opinions. But it's not a good time to decide it seems. That said I'm still feeling mildy bullish after looking at google trends, hearing gox queue and fiat news and hearing the "china overtakes US on bitcoin client downloads" news today.

time will tell.

Thanks

there are probably a few large players who attempt to 'manipulate' the market, but their actions are as useful as an eagle's wings to a hurricane. we're butterflies, they're birds of prey Tongue

what i mean to say is -- a single manipulator acting alone doesn't make money, it's only the 'pigs' who panic sell that make the manipulator money. that being said, Mr M didn't cause the market crash today, weak hands did.

for the short-term, if $120 holds, worst case we may enter into a period of sideways consolidation around this price point, but down seems far-fetched. the cool thing about bitcoin -- especially now -- is that the price doesn't go down unless there's serious selling, because deflation is kicking in. sideways consolidation is bullish in the bitcoin world!

if $120 doesn't hold, well, that is a scary situation. the not-cool thing about bitcoin is that most hands are weak hands (daytraders, other speculators), who are -- as was observed today -- alternately greedy, and panicky, and are always very manipulable.

oh well.

--arepo
786  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: April 25, 2013, 11:58:05 PM
Question is, do the sellers still have enough ammo left to bring the price down to ~$120 again?

we'll see... the picture is forming. another triangle? i won't be so quick to make any bold claims, but im going to test my methods again. based on some measurements, i've come up with breakout in 90 +/- 60 minutes.

-===-



-===-

no claims about direction, i'm just trying to determine how precise these kinds of measurements are after last night's experiment.

--arepo

[edited for significant figures -- 90 is rounded to tens, so error must be too]
787  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: April 25, 2013, 11:25:28 PM


-===-

sweet dead cat bounce, bro
788  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: April 25, 2013, 11:15:42 PM
anyone else have a hunch?

Down.  Wink

i think so too, but the $120 floor might just hold. that would be incredibly bullish mid-term -- we had to let off some steam but there are a lot of buyers, still.
789  Economy / Speculation / Re: Can you short bitcoins yet? on: April 25, 2013, 11:13:59 PM
Quote

they are 'shorting' it. they sold their coins, they're short bitcoins. they want to buy in lower.


In before someone corrects you for the next 3 pages.

yes, please, bitcointalk. i know how you feel about this. spare me the wrath of the semantics police Roll Eyes
790  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: April 25, 2013, 11:10:16 PM
well, if I'd got home in time I would've done some trading on the 120 bounce... I walked in just as it was on it's way up!

Glad I sold most yesterday ~$155 !


What's this battle going on at $140 now? Anyone think it will hold?

the questions right now are really: will $120 hold if we break out downwards? and if so, how long will this consolidation last before we resume the bull trend?

a break below $120 will indicate a bear market in the short-term, at least.
791  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: April 25, 2013, 11:06:45 PM
well, if I'd got home in time I would've done some trading on the 120 bounce... I walked in just as it was on it's way up!

Glad I sold most yesterday ~$155 !


What's this battle going on at $140 now? Anyone think it will hold?

i didn't 'get out' until things went way sour this morning. then i opened a short Wink

but im not sure what you're asking, exactly. also, from the data i'm looking at right now, this is still a critical moment, and it's going to be hard to make any projections until the price breaks out of this consolidation. that being said, we'll likely break under $140 again before any new trend appears, just in the course of consolidation.

anyone else have a hunch?
792  Economy / Speculation / Re: Can you short bitcoins yet? on: April 25, 2013, 10:53:20 PM
You can short on margin at BitFinex.

A great way to make money if you are a bear.

did just this and profited off of this panic. i guess that means i like dicks or something? tell me more, OP.

lol. panic? what panic?

i mean the people that are saying crash crash crash are saying it because they are dicks and they arent even shorting it. how did you short it? did mt gox lend you the coins?

the panic selling that just happened...? are you new?

they are 'shorting' it. they sold their coins, they're short bitcoins. they want to buy in lower.
793  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: April 25, 2013, 10:26:09 PM
another (small) wave down now, but support at $120 should hold, just consolidating inside the bounds of the leg down.

again, forgive me for the small timescale (15-min) -- im swing-trading.

-===-



-===-

this is how you know an indicator is calibrated well -- perfect bounce off of the 50-line, micro-term bearish.
794  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: April 25, 2013, 10:20:40 PM
another (small) wave down now, but support at $120 should hold, just consolidating inside the bounds of the leg down.
795  Economy / Speculation / Re: 130's touchdown SELL SELL SELL on: April 25, 2013, 09:43:20 PM
100 dollars is where my buy order are at

$100?Huh  What kind of bear are you??

there aren't many real bears left. that's the thing. (just pigs Tongue)
796  Economy / Speculation / Re: Can you short bitcoins yet? on: April 25, 2013, 09:42:11 PM
You can short on margin at BitFinex.

A great way to make money if you are a bear.

did just this and profited off of this panic. i guess that means i like dicks or something? tell me more, OP.
797  Economy / Speculation / Re: wtf? on: April 25, 2013, 09:41:09 PM
or this:

Someones bot got a glitch and spams GOX with thousands of 0.00001 buy/sell's. Pathetic attempt to DDOS  Grin



I don't think this is correct.  The api gives me an error if I try to place a trade smaller than 0.01 btc.

then what was it, do you think? it was very strange...
798  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: April 25, 2013, 09:36:37 PM

I'm still avoiding it. Bitcoinica was enough bucket shopping for me...

yeah, ive been profiting off of the volatility since $130 but it's not my money until i can take all of it out  Tongue
799  Economy / Speculation / Re: How does it feel to have sold < $125 today? on: April 25, 2013, 09:27:52 PM
smoothie, you'd better shut up before we break down out of this bearish pennant.
800  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: April 25, 2013, 09:15:31 PM
Interesting, where do you short BTCs? And what are the fees?

bitfinex has been good to me so far. does anyone know of any negative news associated with the service? i've been really wary with brokerages because i got burned in the bitcoinica fiasco, but there haven't been any red flags thus far.

as for fees, they're minimal. interest on positions is good too, because bitfinex has a lenders market inside of the platform, so people compete with each other for rates and they are therefore fairly priced by a market mechanism.
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