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801  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: April 25, 2013, 09:10:24 PM
1min chart? Isn't that a little too noisy? Unless you like to trade often...  Wink

it's completely useless for analysis ...

i just realized this isn't exactly true...

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the other reason i was looking at that scale is because i've been shorting the hell out of this panic with leverage. Cheesy caught the top and bottom twice for about 40% returns in an hour.

the same patterns exist on all price scales...

--arepo
802  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wave of Selling --- Wave of buying on: April 25, 2013, 08:59:30 PM
It only works when you fall for it. Let that be todays lesson for everybody.

+5
803  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: April 25, 2013, 08:49:55 PM
1min chart? Isn't that a little too noisy? Unless you like to trade often...  Wink

it's completely useless for analysis, i was just trying to show the volatility. i was a little late with the screen shot, it was more like 15% in 20 seconds. combination of jumpy traders, gox lag, and a thin ask side. all hail bitcoin Tongue
804  Economy / Speculation / Re: LOL 20$ UP IN TEN SECONDS ? on: April 25, 2013, 08:48:04 PM
People need to learn to chill the hell out. Jesus.

lol it's really just this. at the end of the day, it's just this. so much stupid is done by traders playing with hot heads.
805  Economy / Speculation / Re: And..... CRASH! on: April 25, 2013, 08:45:06 PM
Could the crash have been related to this press release this afternoon???


http://www.businessinsider.com/canadian-banks-closing-bitcoin-businesses-2013-4

But why the drop?

the market was extremely overbought in the short term.

the irrational bulls started to march, and they played a game of musical chairs until someone suddenly sat down at $160 even though the music was still playing and then...

boom.
806  Economy / Speculation / Re: LOL 20$ UP IN TEN SECONDS ? on: April 25, 2013, 08:41:09 PM
i caught that too...



ask side was sooooo thin.. and some panic buying with ridiculous slippage
807  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: April 25, 2013, 08:40:13 PM
Traders gonna trade.

Now I'm waiting for the inevitable rebound and re-crash.

some serious volatility going on right now...

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-===-

approx. 15% in 1 min? this. is. bitcoin.
808  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: April 25, 2013, 08:34:00 PM
Well, I guess nobody wants bitcoins after all -- we're all just in it for the USD  Tongue

Oh I want bitcoins. But I can have moarrrr if I wait!

yes, i know you and i are not the pigs getting slaughtered right now. i just don't understand why so many people bought them if they were just gonna sell them off like this in two days' time haha. this is ridiculous panic selling right now.
809  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: April 25, 2013, 08:23:57 PM
Well, I guess nobody wants bitcoins after all -- we're all just in it for the USD  Tongue
810  Economy / Speculation / Re: And..... CRASH! on: April 25, 2013, 08:14:09 PM
ITT: people butthurt about not buying in at $100
811  Economy / Speculation / Re: wtf? on: April 25, 2013, 08:07:08 PM
or this:

Someones bot got a glitch and spams GOX with thousands of 0.00001 buy/sell's. Pathetic attempt to DDOS  Grin


812  Economy / Speculation / wtf? on: April 25, 2013, 08:01:19 PM


crazy bot battle?
813  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: April 25, 2013, 07:52:30 PM
update 11:

*charts are 1-month 6-hour scale*



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right now, we are still in scenario black.

if the trendline breaks, scenario red could still be bullish, but carries a lot of reversal-risk (see high-volume green 'doji' on 6-hour scale)

and at least for now, it still seems like there is too much bullish momentum and not enough selling pressure for scenario blue (REVERSAL).




-===-

this is it. this is the big moment where we test the trend's support -- if we go any lower, the picture turns bearish. the bullish momentum is gone and the selling pressure is on, we need a big bounce.

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compare to:

I guess this was C, as trend line under attack



$140 should hold... if we go below then trend is broken...

[from lucif's thread again]

--arepo
814  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: April 25, 2013, 07:36:53 PM
Was it really triangle - it looked like a wedge (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/wedge.asp) for me (and I was selling).

yes, it was a wedge, that is, it did not exhibit lower highs and higher lows, but higher lows and higher highs.

since both of these patterns are associated with large volume breakouts, i tend to look at them as two manifestations of the same underlying behavior. the idea of the price function behaving like a dampened oscillator (sine function with decreasing amplitude), is associated with consolidation. forgive me for using the word 'triangle' too liberally.

815  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: April 25, 2013, 06:20:05 PM
regardless, i appreciate the constructive criticism Wink hopefully i will return with an improved model. i have some work to do.

Stop using triangles. I would suggest using dochian channels.

well i'm certainly not only using triangles Cheesy

and yes, the crossover you identified seems to be spot on. it does seem like we're going to slide down to the next support...
816  Economy / Speculation / Re: TA is pseudoscience on: April 25, 2013, 05:31:14 PM
TA has no clear definition.

this is a problem with the premise of this thread, not the specific methods of analysis themselves. "TA" simply refers to a large number of varied techniques.
817  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: April 25, 2013, 05:23:18 PM
don't worry, something's about to happen this time.




haha great pic, i had a good laugh Cheesy

as for the test, i realize that it was pretty unscientific of me to 'readjust' the breakout time after the first call -- what i ought to have done was provide error bars for the time in the first place -- which inspired me to measure triangles with more statistical rigor. geometric measurements clearly are not enough. what properties tend to lead to successful breakouts? what properties tend to lead to unsuccessful breakouts? and what properties lead to no breakouts at all, and are simply other patterns or just noise masquerading as triangles?

as for the one i was looking at last night,



the 'breakout attempt' occurred at around 5:00 am EST, so, as i calculated before, about 100%200% error. however, it failed -- i suspect because of low volume.

however, the triangle itself is still very robust, and the price did not begin trending sideways until after 5 am. unfortunately, being able to identify triangles is useless until i learn how to measure them more precisely Tongue

regardless, i appreciate the constructive criticism Wink hopefully i will return with an improved model. i have some work to do.

--arepo
818  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: April 25, 2013, 04:25:50 AM
update 10:

remember where we are in the model? this is why i believe fig 9 is correct:

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-===-

so far, so consistent.

--arepo
819  Economy / Speculation / Re: Should I re-buy in? on: April 25, 2013, 04:22:35 AM
correction already happened. y'all are gonna miss the train with that attitude.

-===-



-===-

--arepo
820  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: April 25, 2013, 04:15:23 AM
I will be watching for a bit too... Though for some reason, nothing happens during this time, then when I wake up I missed something!

don't worry, something's about to happen this time.

my breakout-time-estimate was about 100% off, but i can live with that. i'm more confident now than before that this is a robust triangle -- check out the hourly candle view, very orderly. it seems i estimated the lower bound of the triangle a little too high (i thought the long tails at the base were outliers, but they were actually following a moving support that didn't get touched again until the beartrap just this past hour [yellow line in fig 9]). this is what caused me to underestimate the timescale.

figure in update 9 still my best projection. let the bulls run.

--arepo
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