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841  Economy / Speculation / Re: YOU ARE HERE on: April 24, 2013, 02:23:20 PM
this may be true, but if so the time scale is quite large and so there is a large risk of the model breaking down due to complications (rise of another crypto, federal action, protocol exploit). if anything perturbs the bitcoin ecosystem, it will not look like this. if infrastructure scales properly and everything else goes right, this could be the decade-view.
842  Economy / Speculation / Re: Correction O'Clock? on: April 24, 2013, 02:18:02 PM
I really never expected to see another crazy price rise like this again so soon.  I think that $175 might be where alot of people decide to dump coins, especially if they missed out on selling at $180+ last time round. They won't want to risk missing the boat a second time. 

I predict This will followed by a crash to around $70 - $80.  I think we will then see a series of gradually reducing bubbles and pops over the coming months until the price stabilises around $140.  Once its stabilised for a few months we'll finally see some major retailers accept bitcoin and then lift off begins.  Grin



this is relatively on par with my projections. well done.
843  Economy / Speculation / Re: How long to break through 150 on: April 24, 2013, 01:57:34 PM
bout to double down on this bitch!!! ill buy more cuz i think its gunna rocket even more. we are just at ignition we still gotta rocket throw the stratosphere and out of the atmosphere. yaaa....ok not double but ill buy a few more  Wink

a rational analysis of the highest calibre if ever I read one. You Sir are our future hope and light.

indeed.

you should post more of your work. your rocket engine analysis is extremely rigorous.
844  Economy / Speculation / Re: Do not try and pop the bubble. That's impossible. on: April 24, 2013, 01:55:25 PM
I know why you're here. I know what you've been doing why you hardly sleep, why you live alone, and why night after night, you sit by your computer watching the charts. You're looking for him. I know because I was once looking for the same thing. And when he found me, he told me I wasn't really looking for him. I was looking for an answer. It's the price that drives us. It's the price that brought you here. You know the trends, just as I did.

What is the Bitcoin worth?

The real price is out there, and it's looking for you, and it will find you if you want it to.

follow the white satoshi? Tongue
845  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: April 24, 2013, 01:52:15 PM
in the meantime, i'm going to continue posting updates for current price action.

update 5:

-===-



-===-

subscribers know what i mean  Wink
846  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: April 24, 2013, 01:48:53 PM
Sorry for breaking up the party. Undecided Hopefully it's for the better.

no worries. i definitely appreciate the heads-up
847  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: April 24, 2013, 01:46:58 PM

Arepo, don't worry about making us do some additional disclaimer thing, if it saves you from douche bags that can't think for themselves and trust their life savings to you on a whim I will be more then happy to comply.  Just don't put in any small lettering demanding my first born... first that's just demented and second... not having any:)

haha it was in complete un-seriousness, don't worry Tongue. although i feel i will have to consult legal advice before publishing again, for those of you who expressed interest in a follow-up report.
848  Economy / Speculation / Re: Who and why have people been buying Bitcoin lately? on: April 24, 2013, 01:28:52 PM
these are very good questions... someone must have the data to shed some light?
849  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: April 24, 2013, 12:57:50 PM
I can't speak for anyone else but I'm not taking it as "financial advice" in a formal sense and I don't think it's been dressed as such.

More of an informed opinion... an opinion that may be more informed than mine. It's my choice what I do with my BTC, and arepo has made that fairly clear IMO. However, my opinion could be wrong, as could arepo's analysis. I don't know what the law says about these things or the exact wording of arepo's report, but the disclaimer was in there.

Hopefully other people will see that where figures are quoted as possible hits, supports, resistance points and so on, arepo could be totally wrong. So, you would be totally wrong to follow the informed opinion to the letter. There are no exacting recommendations on when to buy or when to sell, just possible scenarios and possible best answers to each scenario that are all fairly loose and open to interpretation.

I would also add that reading analysis as an emotional investor is very helpful as it keeps things in perspective... but yeah, enough said

thanks for your subscriber-side perspective. i'm doing some research now. hopefully i won't have to make all of you confirm in a legally binding way that you won't bring a lawsuit against me   Wink Cheesy
850  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: April 24, 2013, 12:23:40 PM
is that enough to protect me?
I'm not a lawyer, so I'm going to follow my own advice on that one Cheesy Not to make any comment on how good or bad your advice may be, I was just concerned for you. Best of luck. Smiley

i was a little concerned for me, too, but decided to rather throw caution to the wind -- and now you've got me worried.

in the OP i gave a brief introduction, i'm just a young guy with a penchant for math and i've been working out methods for bitcoin analysis awhile. i am not 'certified' to give 'financial advice'. these are simply observations based on my trading strategies and price models, and my subscribers use it to inform their trading at their own risk. i am not liable for any losses, and i made that clear in the included disclaimer.

again: anything in the price report or in this thread that may look like financial advice, is in fact not.

if anyone is more familiar with the legality of this, please PM me privately. if you inform me well i may compensate you for your efforts.
851  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: April 24, 2013, 12:15:44 PM
Arepo, I hope you realize that actually selling financial advice is a crime unless you are qualified to do so, and you're exposing yourself to litigation and liability for any losses anyone makes taking your advice if you are not.

It's all good and well until you start charging.

i am relatively aware of this, and included a simple disclaimer with the original price report. is that enough to protect me? these updates have been free, and are really just conversation with the subscribers.

thanks for the heads up.
852  Economy / Speculation / Re: bear graph on: April 24, 2013, 12:12:06 PM
OH NOOOOOSSSSS YOU ARE SO SCARYYYY...... dude you are not going to get cheep coins again. I would just buy in now before you rilly are pissed off when it goes 266, 350, 410, 488, 545 etc. 19 million a day is pooring in to mt gox and only 3.5 out. hummmm what is all that money gunna do? BUY MORE BITCOINS. your a sad pathetic bear

this again, already? this scares me. we're gonna blow way past the old normal at this rate.

Why should it scare you?

because irrational traders scare me, bull or bear. they break price models  Tongue
853  Economy / Speculation / Re: bear graph on: April 24, 2013, 12:05:12 PM
OH NOOOOOSSSSS YOU ARE SO SCARYYYY...... dude you are not going to get cheep coins again. I would just buy in now before you rilly are pissed off when it goes 266, 350, 410, 488, 545 etc. 19 million a day is pooring in to mt gox and only 3.5 out. hummmm what is all that money gunna do? BUY MORE BITCOINS. your a sad pathetic bear

this again, already? this scares me. we're gonna blow way past the old normal at this rate.
854  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: April 24, 2013, 11:49:48 AM
update 4:

the price is acting more bullish than even my most bullish sub-scenario! this is exciting but worrying. corrections cannot be avoided, only carefully timed Tongue

keep an eye on those supports i outlined in the last email update. momentum can still theoretically correct all the way down to the second, lower line (the moving support) without indicating a reversal. remember the important resistance that is included in the price targets of the report -- this is still my best guess for the general timing of the top. i may consider revision because of recent bullish momentum, but prices above this target carry too much risk for me, personally.

happy to see scenario 1 continue to play out very straightforwardly. as always, send me some mail if you wanna chat Smiley

--arepo
855  Economy / Speculation / Re: YOU ARE HERE on: April 24, 2013, 11:42:59 AM
"bull trap"

lol. Seriously, when will people stop saying that.

when people stop saying this:

We're at return to "normal"

If we blow past $250 this week, you'll be wrong.

we're going to fly right past 'normal' and overcorrect back into misery again. we've probably already departed from sustainable prices, at this rate.
856  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: IT IS TIME FOR GOXILLA TO GO on: April 24, 2013, 06:34:26 AM
what if people use gox because they're afraid that other exchanges carry more risk, generally, from hacks to the recent sudden closing of bitfloor and temporary fund freezing.
857  Economy / Speculation / Re: Who or what is causing resistance in the $120's on: April 24, 2013, 05:53:54 AM
What would be necessary for someone be able to honestly describe their model publicly, without that reveal influencing the validity of the model, and with that person, and anyone else using that model, being able to profit at least as much as they would without the model being made public? In other words, is a profitable algorithm that takes into account not only it's own existence, but other people's knowledge about it's existence, possible at all? And what would such algorithm be like?

The intermediate-range model I am sharing perhaps addresses your question ...

  • Its basis: that the rapid 4-5x annual underlying growth rate of the bitcoin economy will cause bubbles as speculators get ahead of the trend
  • Speculative financial bubble theory predicts a certain price pattern, e.g. double exponential price growth that enables recognition of the start of the bubble, and a subsequent decline to the underlying trend post-bubble, where the decline has approximately the same duration as the run-up
  • This pattern is stable because of the relatively large proportion of new, not-fully informed speculators who join the rally
  • It is advantageous to proclaim the start of a bubble because not-fully informed speculators may be greedily motivated to jump on board assuming that they can exit before the top with big gains
  • It is advantageous to proclaim the decline of a bubble, because that notion, when widely disseminated, facilitates the decline
  • In a bubble, the majority of the participants are not knowledgeable traders, and thus ignore the published model


this is definitely a respectable model, but i don't think it fits the bill. it may not even work well in practice, as long as more than one market participant is privy.

from a game theory perspective, briefly,

it's not just about what the players know, it's also about what the players know about what the other players know.

in a market with a regularity that is known only to a small few, it will still be self-correcting (i.e. the regularity will dissapear) as there will be regressive attempts to undercut each other's profits, as long as each of them knows that the other knows about the regularity.
858  Economy / Gambling / Re: I Mem of Mems list Encourage boycotting SatoshiDice [RACISM] on: April 24, 2013, 04:41:05 AM
this is silly and the best way to 'punish' this guy for being so ridiculous is to not make a big deal about this at all. he didn't buy slaves, he's just using a racially charged word because he enjoys the fact that it makes people uncomfortable, probably because he has sociopathic tendencies or some superiority complex.

he's dumb. this is dumb. moving on.
859  Economy / Speculation / Re: TA is pseudoscience on: April 24, 2013, 04:21:08 AM

Maybe I'm misunderstanding something: please someone explain what is a "pattern" in TA and what method you use for recognize those patterns.

@arepo: EMH does not imply that there is no way to have a better probability than just plain luck.


i think you've got the idea. if you have a stochastic function like price, a 'pattern' is an autocorrelation, or a segment of the data which 'correlates' in some way to previous segments of data. your perspective from computer vision is spot on.

as for the EMH, how doesn't it? i was under the impression that EMH implies that the price function is a random walk.
860  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: April 24, 2013, 12:06:40 AM
important* update 3:

i just sent out an email about ten minutes ago. it had a chart enclosed and some updates regarding current market behavior. it's a useful extension of 'scenario 1', be sure to check it out.

also, if you didn't get the email and you subscribed to this report, let me know.

--arepo
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