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901  Economy / Speculation / Re: the ultimate inflection point on: April 22, 2013, 02:38:24 AM
and the indicative decreasing volume, for rigor:

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it was too difficult to see in the microscale chart above.
902  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: IT IS TIME FOR GOXILLA TO GO on: April 22, 2013, 02:37:05 AM
If you feel so strongly about it, I urge you to do something before it is too late. Start your own exchange now while you still can. Relying on other people to solve your problems for you is ineffective, and crying about it won't solve anything.

True.  However, more exchanges have been made, and nobody is using them in lieu of the Gox.  It's not a problem any one individual can solve.




Shocked GAME THEORY  Shocked
903  Economy / Speculation / Re: the ultimate inflection point on: April 22, 2013, 02:16:34 AM
bearish pennant shape from above just about to close...

UP or DOWN?

YOU CHOOSE!

<1 hr

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904  Economy / Speculation / Re: the ultimate inflection point on: April 22, 2013, 01:35:23 AM

i'd say the picture is still bearish for monday, specifically, but im saving the good stuff for the newsletter Wink


interesting - thanks.

newsletter?

i'm currently in the final stage of data collection for a "Price Analysis and Projection" report. it's sketched out but i'm waiting for a particular confirmation before i am confident enough in my price model to publish it.

after that, i'm going to make it available for a bounty on the forums. keep an eye out, ETA 8 hours
905  Economy / Speculation / Re: Who or what is causing resistance in the $120's on: April 22, 2013, 01:28:55 AM

[snip]

major supports on the way down become major resistances on the way up.

i hear what you are saying, but the bounces and the resistance levels are "fake" seeing there was an intervention by mt gox. so i think charts mean nothing when they dont show actual information imo.

while the data may be skewed, even severely, as you suggest, it would be difficult to break this fundamental 'law' of market behavior. i think this explanation is more likely than any other, at least by occam's principle.
906  Economy / Speculation / Re: Who or what is causing resistance in the $120's on: April 22, 2013, 01:03:15 AM
Who or what is causing resistance in the $120's

it's funny because like in the religious of old, lack of understanding of a regularity in nature yields an immediate suspicion of a larger, manipulative agent Tongue

it was the major support that the first leg down bounced off of (within reasonable error), and marked the bottom of the resulting "bearish pennant" (triangle consolidation) pattern.

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major supports on the way down become major resistances on the way up.

907  Economy / Speculation / Re: the ultimate inflection point on: April 22, 2013, 12:52:34 AM
It's weekend, you can't expect those resistances to break with these kind of volumes. Tomorrow we will know more, until then it's anyone's guess.

price exhibits the same patterns, just on lower volume.

it's harder to confirm patterns in this setting, but the price is following my personal trading model very nicely, and i stand by the failure to break the resistances as a signal to relieve selling pressure. the market is short-term overbought, and we are, as i projected 12 hours ago, sliding into a low-volume downtrend. there even seems to be a little bear pennant forming right now, which is likely to break down.

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i'd say the picture is still bearish for monday, specifically, but im saving the good stuff for the newsletter Wink
908  Economy / Speculation / Re: Price slump on: April 21, 2013, 11:45:24 PM
nothing to see here, just market forces that many are responding to.

Quote
because of the short but strong bull run we just witnessed, if we break through these serious resistances it will signal a strong movement up, in continuation of this strong short-term trend. if we fail to break through the resistance it will be a signal to relieve the selling pressure (from the larger downtrend) that's been building up in the askwall.
909  Economy / Speculation / Re: We past 130$ today on: April 21, 2013, 09:55:47 PM
keep dreaming. the bull market fantasy is peaking.

the price right now is as a low as scum on the bottom of the ocean floor

bitcoin has been single digits for more than half of its lifetime. before 2013, it had only been >$20 for two brief weeks in June 2011. your analogy is nice, but doesn't stand up to the facts.
910  Economy / Speculation / Re: We past 130$ today on: April 21, 2013, 09:44:50 PM
keep dreaming. the bull market fantasy is peaking.
911  Economy / Speculation / Re: List of Technical Analysts on: April 21, 2013, 09:22:05 PM
thanks for the list.

and yeah single threads are great imo.

is there a way to see all the threads a user has started? i do make posts relatively often, so 'all posts' would be worthless, but the list of authored threads is pretty much a list of all of my work.
912  Economy / Speculation / Re: Impressive - Merchant confidence returns! on: April 21, 2013, 09:10:35 PM
I sense lots of bullish sentiment.

I smell a gargantuan pile of bullshit.

I smell someone who has recent losses on the bitcoin books lol

how much did you lose naysaying the bears these past two weeks, is the question.
913  Economy / Speculation / Re: List of Technical Analysts on: April 21, 2013, 09:09:24 PM

arepo - makes random posts


here's a sampling of my most recent threads tracking this mini-rally, so viewers of this thread can get a taste, in reverse chronological order.
fear not, bulls!
the running of the bulls
the ultimate inflection point

the last one started out as a joke, but i ended up posting some real analysis.

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also, i know there are a few who watch out for my posts -- let me ask you this: would it be better if i reposted in a single thread like lucif?

-arepo
914  Economy / Speculation / Re: the ultimate inflection point on: April 21, 2013, 08:07:22 PM
Similar to that blood red day just before the price doubled?

not similar at all. we were extremely oversold on the short term at that point. the reason that now is different is because the bulls have exhausted their energy for the time being and failed to break through the 38.2% resistance line.
915  Economy / Speculation / Re: SELLOFF! on: April 21, 2013, 08:02:33 PM
haha, i was gonna make a couple extra bucks on the quick drop knowing that it would soon raise up, but my work computers were a total lag fest and I ended up losing 50 bucks selling too low....i suppose thats how it goes.

But you see that shit spike back up? RALLY. so sad for those of you who really thought this was the crash ahaha. even the DDOS attacks aren't slowing anything down anymore.

this is why you shouldn't daytrade. you've got a few misconceptions here.

1) there's always a rebound, so don't panic sell, wait and sell at the top of the bounce.

2) there's always a rebound. we could easily slide into a short-term downtrend at this point.
916  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bears, Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is on: April 21, 2013, 05:17:46 AM
maybe because it's silly to agree to a bet in which your winnings are denominated in the currency whose exchange rate your bet is against.
917  Economy / Speculation / Re: the ultimate inflection point on: April 21, 2013, 05:06:23 AM
Quote
[snipped chart]

trendline broken, swings the 50-50 call in favor of the bears. most likely outcomes: triangle with bearish downside breakout, or bulltrap breakout.


wtf is that supposed to be.

that is a trendline with 7 points of contact -- very robust. remember that price at this scale has a lot of noise in it...

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it's also a projection that is unfolding as i type with a $10 push down, forming a top.
918  Economy / Speculation / Re: the ultimate inflection point on: April 21, 2013, 04:24:34 AM
well, i feel like sharing some real analysis now. i guess i'll put it here.

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trendline broken, swings the 50-50 call in favor of the bears. most likely outcomes: triangle with bearish downside breakout, or bulltrap breakout.
919  Economy / Speculation / Re: the ultimate inflection point on: April 21, 2013, 03:39:36 AM
What do you think are the chances for each ?

[puts on TA hat]

working on a model right now. the problem being this:

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Very weak volume suggests bullish position to be dangerous.

There could be a bit more upside or some consolidation, but the hell dozen of resistances... sma200, upper weekly bb, middle daily bb and tons of others.  



[i hope lucif doesn't mind my reposting his work, i'm a big fan]

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because of the short but strong bull run we just witnessed, if we break through these serious resistances it will signal a strong movement up, in continuation of this strong short-term trend. if we fail to break through the resistance it will be a signal to relieve the selling pressure (from the larger downtrend) that's been building up in the askwall. from my own analysis, it's nearly 50/50, with the bearish bullish scenario slightly more likely (approx 55-45).

based on the data in the next 24 hours, i can complete the model and i will make it available on the forums, along with mid-term projections.

edit: mistype
920  Economy / Speculation / Re: the ultimate inflection point on: April 21, 2013, 03:25:06 AM
What kind of TA is this?

i'm not wearing my TA hat right now, sorry.

this is me gauging market sentiment. Wink

also, it's likely for there to be a large movement soon.
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