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1  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoinica: When does it implode? on: January 04, 2012, 05:39:31 AM
Less than 100 poll responses with under half seeing Bitcoinica as viable? The poll should have included a choice like "Doesn't Matter/Don't Care" Wink

C'mon people, that's no way to stuff a ballot box. Don't let it look like this is too small a cult to ever be taken seriously.
2  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoinica: When does it implode? on: January 02, 2012, 08:16:28 PM
Here's my question for Bitcoinica


Hypothetical: the majority (let's say 90%) of bitcoinica users are long in the market (buying) and are leveraged close to the max (let's say 4 to 1).

From where do the currency funds come to fill those leveraged orders?

Same hypothetical question for large HEAVILY LEVERAGED sell orders that come from the majority of bitcoinica members?

Could you clarify that you do indeed have deep pockets with lots of money and bitcoins to fund these scenarios?
If you don't, then what mechanisms are in place so the market can't leverage past the point of no more funds?

If there are no mechanism and limited funds then the only other option would be for a fractional reserve exchange,
in that case it would be an ethical choice to clarify it to your users.

What does this mean for bitcoinica's users if there are no mechanisms and limited funds?
It means that at some point the leveraged buys or sells do no influence the market the same as a 1:1 buy or sell.
Leveraged buys and sells would merely be "placing your bets" on what way the market will go without really participating.

I would really appreciate if you could address all this.

We can be a half bucket shop and half brokerage, but obviously that's not the right way.

Either way will result in criticisms, but I did the best I can do, and the right thing.

Why did you repost this exchange without actually responding to the questions? Everyone always claims to do their best and to have done the "right thing". Claiming best effort doesn't establish the adequacy of effort in the eyes of others, and whatever you may have meant by the "right thing" remains completely undefined. For example, not getting your nuts cut off as a warning from a loan shark could be very right for you, but the outcome one way or the other might be of little interest to anyone else.

Are you running any of this by your lawyer before you publish it? You might at least get some guidance in avoiding inadvertently digging your operation even deeper into a credibility hole than it already is.


You must be new here.

True. So far it's just like driving by a serious auto accident, as you approach you can see from the rising smoke and flames that the carnage must be terrible, but you still end up taking a good long look as you pass by. In this case it's not so bad, as it's only another flaming clown car in the internet circus.

It will be interesting to see the total number of responses to the poll question once a day or so has passed. Was bitcoin a bigger deal a few months back? So far it looks like it is going the "death by a thousand idiots" route, only that thousand is probably more like a few dozens, tops.

Some of the press coverage creates the impression that bitcoin aspires to be some kind of serious alternative or business vehicle. To date the best business idea I've run across on this forum is bringing Mexican style kidnapping for profit to the U.S., and you sure don't need bitcoins to pursue that.
3  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoinica: When does it implode? on: January 02, 2012, 06:32:27 PM
Here's my question for Bitcoinica


Hypothetical: the majority (let's say 90%) of bitcoinica users are long in the market (buying) and are leveraged close to the max (let's say 4 to 1).

From where do the currency funds come to fill those leveraged orders?

Same hypothetical question for large HEAVILY LEVERAGED sell orders that come from the majority of bitcoinica members?

Could you clarify that you do indeed have deep pockets with lots of money and bitcoins to fund these scenarios?
If you don't, then what mechanisms are in place so the market can't leverage past the point of no more funds?

If there are no mechanism and limited funds then the only other option would be for a fractional reserve exchange,
in that case it would be an ethical choice to clarify it to your users.

What does this mean for bitcoinica's users if there are no mechanisms and limited funds?
It means that at some point the leveraged buys or sells do no influence the market the same as a 1:1 buy or sell.
Leveraged buys and sells would merely be "placing your bets" on what way the market will go without really participating.

I would really appreciate if you could address all this.

We can be a half bucket shop and half brokerage, but obviously that's not the right way.

Either way will result in criticisms, but I did the best I can do, and the right thing.

Why did you repost this exchange without actually responding to the questions? Everyone always claims to do their best and to have done the "right thing". Claiming best effort doesn't establish the adequacy of effort in the eyes of others, and whatever you may have meant by the "right thing" remains completely undefined. For example, not getting your nuts cut off as a warning from a loan shark could be very right for you, but the outcome one way or the other might be of little interest to anyone else.

Are you running any of this by your lawyer before you publish it? You might at least get some guidance in avoiding inadvertently digging your operation even deeper into a credibility hole than it already is.
4  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: 2012 according to the Mayan calendar on: January 01, 2012, 04:04:29 AM
Happy Year The Last to all. May all your wealth be counted in bitcoins and may they be your only legacy.
5  Economy / Speculation / Re: Major correction to rally coming... on: December 29, 2011, 05:32:46 AM
"Curiouser and curiouser!" cried Alice...
6  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Decentralization of Bitcoin vs. centralization of exchange market on: December 28, 2011, 02:09:55 AM
Same old games, just different players.

The core design of Bitcoin does not address everything that might be needed or wanted, it addresses some issues in a decentralized fashion but it's hardly a complete system. The speed at which traditional centralized solutions were built into the Bitcoin infrastructure has left Bitcoin being neither fish nor fowl. At this point one really needs to step back and ask if any of the claims made for it have been devalued due to this assimilation.

But not to worry, when society collapses and the zombie apocalypse is upon us, the internet will somehow still be working so we can trade our valuable Bitcoins with each other  Grin
7  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Does Bitcoin Cater to the Rich? on: December 28, 2011, 01:41:07 AM
Actually, cell phones are the great equalizer:
 - http://businesstoday.intoday.in/story/innovation-m-pesa/1/20189.html

Bitcoins can be used by mobile users, both businesses and customers.

Gee, that's interesting...

And the technical skill requirements?  I have an older relative who has been using computers for 20 years and can't manage text messaging.

They likely will be dead before Bitcoin goes mainstream.  I am only half kidding.  Bitcoin is so small that even with rapid growth it could take a decade or two before it becomes as common place as say twitter.

Actually, I'm betting on some of your older relatives outliving Bitcoin, although the fact one can still trade in Second Life properties does give Bitcoin some hope of continuing as a sideshow among enthusiasts.
8  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Help. New to bitcoin mining. Suggestions? on: December 28, 2011, 01:33:05 AM
Mining is not that profitable unless you already have the hardware and access to cheap electricity. The other option is just as viable: just buy BTC instead.
+1
The best model is like going to a casino or arcade: buy chips/tokens, use them, and cash them in before you leave.
9  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Christmas Rally and... NEW YEAR's Rally?? on: December 27, 2011, 04:08:36 PM
So, we've had us a lil' xmas rally this year, woo!  Cool and the old BTC's gone up well over $4 and we all thought it would reach $5...
And if so, how high can it go???  Smiley
I wouldn't mistake someone playing ping pong with themselves on a slow day for a trend.
10  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: 2012 according to the Mayan calendar on: December 27, 2011, 03:13:18 PM
Have watched the movie "2012" months ago. We're almost there. Could this really happen?
Could what really happen, a movie about a cluster of natural disasters?
11  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Newbies Hangout on: December 25, 2011, 04:00:29 AM
I'm more of a reader than a poster, been lurking around since September or so. I am a Jr. Programmer,figured bitcoin would be a good start to learn about GPGPU programming. Now I am addicted to running bitcoin scenarios LOL. I have spreadsheets with 100K+ lines of random monte carlo calculations trying to find an accurate relationship between Difficulty, BTC Price, Momentum, Power Consumption etc. Not doing so great LOL, its all so deceptively random. Like my heart tells me it is random, by my brain will not give up on findin that hidden LOG calculation burried in all this somewhere.
“If you’ve been in the game 30 minutes and you don’t know who the patsy is, you’re the patsy.” - Warren Buffet
12  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Help. New to bitcoin mining. Suggestions? on: December 25, 2011, 03:54:46 AM
There's not much point in using what you have, it's not enough horses to pull the load these days. You might have thermal issues as well depending on your netbook. Use it for a netbook, that's what it was designed to be.

The only point in buying equipment to mine bitcoins is that you find it amusing, at this time it's improbable that you would ever break even on the investment. Once you are mining it's really really boring, there are lots of more amusing things you can buy, golf and hookers come to mind as examples  Grin
13  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Huge bitcoin dump on MtGox on: December 25, 2011, 03:43:16 AM
Those dumps are from the top seller at silk road  Grin
Nothing like giving people what they ask for  Wink
14  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Rationale for bitcoin creation tapering off on: December 25, 2011, 03:39:28 AM
I think that no one really knows what works and what doesn't. Bitcoin was created this way so it will stay this way.
For good or bad you are correct, it's stuck that way.

What would happen if suddenly the miners dried up? Would that affect the integrity of the blockchain or limit its ability to grow?
15  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Intrest-bearing Bitcoin Bank. on: December 25, 2011, 12:10:04 AM
This isn't the place for fun facts.
HOwever, let me put it like this:
Don;t go blaming other people, if you aren't going to blame ALL the other people. the 2008 crisis was the fault of all subprime morgage lenders, the US Gov, Frannie and freddie, and people who bought homes they shouldn't have. I'm probably forgetting somebody here.
16  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Intrest-bearing Bitcoin Bank. on: December 25, 2011, 12:09:00 AM
This isn't the place for fun facts.
HOwever, let me put it like this:
Don;t go blaming other people, if you aren't going to blame ALL the other people. the 2008 crisis was the fault of all subprime morgage lenders, the US Gov, Frannie and freddie, and people who bought homes they shouldn't have. I'm probably forgetting somebody here.
The whole U.S. mortgage lending fiasco is a wonderful study in the madness of crowds. The point where it all went off the rails was when the criteria for lending ceased to be the ability of a borrower to repay and became the ability of lenders to securitize loans off their books.
17  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Introduce yourself :) on: December 24, 2011, 06:59:45 PM
Hello all.
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