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1  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: February 06, 2019, 08:28:42 PM
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I still have some as a hedge, though I was seriously considering dumping them but couldn't pull the trigger back then. I remember when saddam did a similar thing too. So what are your thoughts, will bitcoin get taken over by another coin (monero, bcash?, etc), or the thinking is monero will out preform bitcoin from here on out?

I consider Monero to pose a very serious long term threat to Bitcoin's dominance. This is because of the combination of the adaptive block weight with fungibility. Unlike Ethereum, which nearly dethroned BItcoin in 2017 - 2018 https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#dominance-percentage, Monero does what Bitcoin was originally designed to do; namely be a cash like digital transactional currency. All it takes is a move in XMR / BTC such as what occurred in 2016 and Bitcoin's dominance is under threat, since the market will be comparing Monero directly with Bitcoin on a technical level. As for Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin SV these coins cannot compete with Monero on long term scaling let alone on fungibility.

Edit: I would watch out if Monero overtakes either Bitcoin Cash and / or Bitcoin SV in market cap. That could be very interesting. Furthermore there is no need for Monero to break the high of 0.03558 BTC in order to do that.
2  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: February 06, 2019, 04:56:56 AM


I'm guess the plan with bitcoin is to keep block size unchanged and allow fees to go through the roof, to subsidize miners. Meanwhile, users will have cheap and fast transactions on lightning network. Win/Win?

I'm sure someone has done some projections on how viable that economic model is. It would be interesting to see.

I have seen many arguments here on BCT as why this fee model does not work and none as why it will work. By the way lightning network is not a solution. Just read the Lightning Network paper https://lightning.network/lightning-network-paper.pdf where they talk about 100 MB + blocks to make LN work. In any case I hate to say I told you so, but I sold all my Bitcoin for Monero over this issue with the bulk of the sales completed well over 3 years ago.

Edit: The reason I found out about Monero in the first place is because I was researching this issue in Bitcoin here on BCT in 2014.

I was reading an old thread you were in where Satoshi had commented that the code for bigger blocks would be easy and he gave a simple If then statement to show how easy.

This is the thread. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1347.0;all  It is of course the thread that started the blocksize debate in Bitcoin
3  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: February 05, 2019, 05:35:13 PM
I'm guess the plan with bitcoin is to keep block size unchanged and allow fees to go through the roof, to subsidize miners. Meanwhile, users will have cheap and fast transactions on lightning network. Win/Win?

I'm sure someone has done some projections on how viable that economic model is. It would be interesting to see.

I have seen many arguments here on BCT as why this fee model does not work and none as why it will work. By the way lightning network is not a solution. Just read the Lightning Network paper https://lightning.network/lightning-network-paper.pdf where they talk about 100 MB + blocks to make LN work. In any case I hate to say I told you so, but I sold all my Bitcoin for Monero over this issue with the bulk of the sales completed well over 3 years ago.

Edit: The reason I found out about Monero in the first place is because I was researching this issue in Bitcoin here on BCT in 2014.
4  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: December 28, 2018, 08:57:21 PM
Why Bitcoin Matters for Freedom  http://time.com/5486673/bitcoin-venezuela-authoritarian/


It has funny end.

Less than 1% of the world’s population — no more than 40 million people — have ever used Bitcoin. But, according to the Human Rights Foundation, more than 50% of the world’s population lives under an authoritarian regime. If we invest the time and resources to develop user-friendly wallets, more exchanges, and better educational materials for Bitcoin, it has the potential to make a real difference for the 4 billion people who can’t trust their rulers or who can’t access the banking system. For them, Bitcoin can be a way out.


Truth is that all this 4 billions cant use Bitcoin. The other 4 billions can, these can only use Monero.

Not even a minuscule fraction of the 4 billion can use Bitcoin which is why I sold out of Bitcoin into Monero over 3 years ago. By the way Lighting Network will not solve this issue. Just read the LN paper https://lightning.network/lightning-network-paper.pdf page 55 where they talk about 133 MB blocks under very optimistic assumptions just to open and close LN channels.
5  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: December 03, 2018, 12:32:29 AM
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Mmh... let's think in a world where there is no longer any block reward.

Why would the total fees go to zero?

Miners would add as much transactions as they can, adding highest fee transactions first. So I don't see how you end up with "there is no more incentive for the POW".

Why would anyone pay a fee with an unlimited blocksize? Where is the economic scarcity?

Edit: What one gets is either a race to the bottom if there is real competition among miners or a cartel that may support fees for a while.
6  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: December 02, 2018, 07:47:31 PM
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Hi ArticMine, Bitcoin SV just want to increase the number of transactions and transaction fees without a blocksize limit. What do you think is wrong with this approach?

As I mentioned above. If there is competition between miners then as the block reward goes to zero so do the total fees per block since the "penalty" in terms of block reward is less than that in Monero. At this point there is no incentive for the POW and the coin becomes insecure. The alternative is a mining cartel or monopoly that sets minimum fees. Quite apart from the centralization involved I have serious doubts  such a cartel will be sustainable in the long term since individual members will cheat.

A good current example is Bytecoin which is for the time being is secured by the Bitmain ASICs. The question in my mind is how long will this last as the block reward continues to fall.  The current block reward in Bytecoin per block is ~1200 BCN if one applies the 10^4 factor that would be equivalent to ~0.12 XMR or about 20% of the tail emission in Monero. By the way I prefer to see Bytecoin as the canary in the coal mine for falling block rewards as opposed to the scam in the pre or ninja mine.
7  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: December 02, 2018, 07:12:05 PM

Basically, the blockreward can be seen like a set of training wheels that keeps bitcoin up and running.

Long ago it was decided that Monero would take an alternative route, wherein having those wheels available to prevent the bicycle from falling over is good, and the tradeoff of having an infinite supply of monero is acceptable.

Tiny wheels, tiny infinity.


That’s interesting... Never thought of it like that before. So the 1mB block size is a hard set rule and the miners will always hit that (considering how many txs there always are ) and aren’t dissuaded somehow against ever going above 1 mB due to some game theory?

yeah, thats the fundamental concept of transaction fees set out in the bitcoin whitepaper
Quote
Once   a   predetermined   number   of   coins   have   entered
circulation, the incentive can transition entirely to transaction fees and be completely inflation
free.

in bitcoin, yeah, there is now a 1 mb block size limit, and in general the incentive to keep it that way is to create a fee market. If you want to get into the next 1 MB block, then your gonna pay for it.


The fundamental problem with Bitcoin's so called fee market to replace the block reward is that there is zero justification for the above statement in Bitcoin whitepaper. The fact that this statement was embedded into what is otherwise a work of genius does not make the statement true. It also does not provide any justification for the game theory that statement implies. In fact there are many arguments that this fee market will not work in the absence of a block reward or where fees become the dominant source of revenue for miners.  

One very interesting argument for the failure of the Satoshi fee market is actually in Monero itself. If one looks at a miner acting in her best interests adding transactions to a Monero block, the miner will add the highest paying transactions first. This can be approximated by the highest fee per byte transaction first if the individual transaction weight is very much less than the effective median block weight.  When the penalty free portion is used up our miner will continue to add transactions until the incremental penalty paid for adding a transaction exceeds the fees paid by the transaction. Since the incremental penalty is proportional to the block reward it follows that the total fees per block paid are also proportional to the block reward. Competition between miners will ensure that. Furthermore the total fees per block are independent of the block weight. The net result of this is that if the block reward goes to zero the total fees paid per block also goes to zero. One conclusion is that in a Bitcoin like coin with a falling block reward in order for the Satoshi fee market to even have a chance of working the penalty in terms of the block reward for increasing the block size (weight) must be stiffer than that in Monero. One can then see the rationale for Bitcoin core's strict block weight limit.

Edit: One interesting anecdote: Fees in Monero are actually based upon the above.
8  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: December 01, 2018, 10:41:36 PM

I believe the power of Bitcoin and Monero (I see virtually NO other useful blockchain projects) will be stronger than the power of traditional finance.  And as the "big boys" pick it up to "fix" it, control, it etc they will be changed more than it is.


God I hope that is true, I believe it too BUT remains to be seen.

Been in a discussion lately with a good friend (only real world person I know who's also into crypto) and his confidence has been badly shaken by the speed and depth of this CryptoWinter period we're in now.

I still believe, however.

Question remains, you said "bitcoin and monero" and XMR of course but... WHICH "bitcoin"??

I think there are a few other possible worthy contenders too... DigiByte appears possibly the last genuine opportunity to buy ANY "real crypto" under a penny.

Oh, maybe even Doge too, LOL.

But not much else, really.  

Either it'll all fail or one of these, XMR BTC BCH DGB DOGE (any others?) -OR- something that does NOT EXIST yet... will prevail.

P.S. {Edit} Forgot left out Litecoin in there... only on the *theory* that MAYBE if BTC really becomes "gold for bankers" and $50 transaction fees to move $1 Million per coin, then little-brother LTC tags along becoming as the transaction-purpose coin.  This is the THEORY I believe Litecoiners cling to, but... anyone really believe it will actually play out this way???  I have no clue so don't attack me on it, just sayin'... LOL

When it comes to cryptowinter.  Yeah it's hard.  And this one has been soul crushing to me at times. And I do not think it is quite over.   I am a terrible trader, so I do not trade.  That is not why I am interested in BTC and XMR.  But look at my join date (not a brag... if only I was smart enough then to buy the 5000 BTC I considered buying on my porch when it was ~$2.).  I have seen several of these winters.

As to the "Which is the real BTC?".  I have an EXTREMELY strong option on this.  There is ONE Bitcoin.  And it is BTC.  We could go into the depth of reasons why, but it's not for this thread.  Craig Wright is a conman.  Ver is a troubled narcissistic idealist.  And for different reasons they have tried to wrestle the title of Bitcoin away from BTC and have created two centralized shitcoins and done great damage to the reputation of crypto.  Could I be wrong?  Sure... and I will pay dearly for it if I am.  My bet is where my belief is.

Here's the thing.  Decentralized, permissionless, censorship resistant money is either going to be successful or not.  If it is not then we have seen the peak.  It will never have another all time high.  BCHABC, BCHSV, XRP, ETH, ALL the ICOs, and virtually ALL the ALTS are *NOT* decentralized, permissionless, censorship resistant money.

But if it is successful then then I think next upswing (whether its in a month or 5 years) will be so shocking that the average public will not believe it.  The mechanics of the system and the unprecedented nature of this invention will cause a most breathtaking effect when they kick in.

And Monero is the only complimentary blockchain that *is* Decentralized, permissionless, censorship resistant money but offers something Bitcoin CANNOT.  That is an opaque blockchain.  Bitcoin will never do that.  Layer two can be as MimbleWimbled as they like...  but layer one will ALWAYS be transparent.

Monero also stands a chance of failure.  Moreso than bitcoin by an order of magnitude in my opinion.  But it also stands a chance to be a continued success in a way no other altcoin can even touch.

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm556



Monero offers something else that Bitcoin does not; namely an adaptive block weight and tail minimum emission that allows for scaling on the main chain. This lack of on chain scaling lies at the heart of the BCH split from XBT and the further split of BSV from BCH. When something as simple as increasing the transactions per second that a blockchain requires a a highly controversial and political hard fork it is hardly surprising to see the splits, wars and personality clashes we have in Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin Satoshi Vision.

On another note Bitcoin has already failed since it cannot meet the design purpose in the Satoshi paper namely a peer to peer cash like digital currency. This is primarily due to the fixed block size.

Edit: Litecoin has the same problem as Bitcoin with scaling; namely the fixed block size and falling lock reward.
9  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: October 25, 2018, 11:50:55 PM
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English man, speak english! Tongue

Take the withdrawals of 15 users and create 1 16 output transaction instead of 15 2 output transactions to save on fees.
10  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: October 25, 2018, 11:38:33 PM
Well, talking about good news. There was expected that withdrawal fees will reduce on exchanges. in rate like 10 times or even more on some but what Bittrex just did is insane. they reduced it few 100 times. Their fee is 0.0001 XMR or one cent. LOL

https://twitter.com/BittrexExchange/status/1055529461809061888




This is insane and they will put immense pressure on other exchanges.   Also they will lose money when there will be sudden spikes in number of transactions if they will want to proceed withdrawals on time. Not sure if they are aware of that or will be a surprise for latter. Tongue

They can also batch transactions to save on fees by for example using a 16 output transaction for multiple users. After BP a significant part of the tx weight on the input side.   
11  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin 10 years anniversary, what good news are you expecting come 2019?. on: October 23, 2018, 04:07:41 AM
It is also the 8 years anniversary of the birth of the blocksize debate in Bitcoin. Here is the early thread. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1347.0;all

12  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Will Monero become next BTC? on: October 21, 2018, 07:17:17 PM
None of altcoins will not become next BTC. Bitcoin will remain the father of crypto forever, cause the total amount of BTC will be only 21 millons

The 21 million Bitcoin limit is actually Bitcoin's Achilles' heel.


13  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: May 26, 2018, 04:06:49 AM
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Do you really think there is a chance that bullet proofs aren't already priced in?

It is possible but if 2015 and the LMDB was any indication I think not. Many may remember that before LMDB the entire Monero blockchain had to be stored in RAM. LMDB for Monero was available on the main chain during part of 2015 but not as an "official" release. It only became "official" on New Years eve 2015. The result was a spectacular bull run in XMR/XBT during 2016, where the price of XMR in terms of XBT rose by over 26 times.

Edit 1: Unlike LMDB during part of 2015, Bulletproofs are not available on the Monero main chain.
Edit 2: I consider the downside risk of being short Monero when bulletproofs go live to be very high.
14  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: May 26, 2018, 02:41:39 AM
If Monero implemented masternodes I would immediately sell all (3) of my coins.

I would rather be invested in Etherium.

Well...  Almost.

Is that the reason why XMR price dropped in recent days? In my knowledge, almost of MN coins often drastically drop in the long-run.

There is of course the long running DASH/XMR market om Poloniex that can speak on this subject.  https://poloniex.com/exchange#xmr_dash

Edit: I would not be surprised if see a crash of DASH on the above market in the future, because of bulletproofs.
15  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency on: May 26, 2018, 02:38:58 AM
If Monero implemented masternodes I would immediately sell all (3) of my coins.

I would rather be invested in Etherium.

Well...  Almost.

Is that the reason why XMR price dropped in recent days? In my knowledge, almost of MN coins often drastically drop in the long-run.

Please use the Monero Speculation thread https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=753252.msg38573503#msg38573503 for price discussions. I will respond there.
16  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency on: May 25, 2018, 02:20:39 AM
May 25, 2018, at 0:00 EEST. is a dead giveaway to a recipient in the EU, given GDPR
17  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: May 11, 2018, 05:08:06 AM
 
...

Damn, just took a look and it's just ugly right now, but I think it's whale feeding time and all the little guppies are emptying their pockets. Smiley.

If I were to guess it could also be short squeezing time. I would not be surprised if there is a significant XMR short position by our ASIC player. There are some strange moves which may be due to the ASIC fork including a very sudden sharp rise in the price of BCN,  which was very likely caused by a single large buyer. This was accompanied by a sharp increase in the BCN hashrate. The ASICs may find BCN to be a more attractive home than XMO.

When it comes to squeezing shorts, my strategy is very simple one buys or keeps holding, takes delivery (this is absolutely critical) and waits,  

Edit: Fish of any size can participate in this strategy.
18  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2018-05-10] Tyler Winklevoss Explains Bill Gates How to Short Bitcoin in a Twit on: May 11, 2018, 03:00:52 AM
I am sure there are many who are interested in taking the long side of the short. The best way to squeeze a Bitcoin short to the wall is to take delivery of the Bitcoin, and wait.

... but where to store the wallet.dat? This may be an option, https://puri.sm/products/ especially since the short would be held by non other than Bill Gates. Hardware that is especially designed for GNU / Linux running Pure OS. Pure OS is considered 100% Libre by the FSF. https://www.fsf.org/news/fsf-adds-pureos-to-list-of-endorsed-gnu-linux-distributions-1
19  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: May 09, 2018, 10:18:34 PM

Just skimmed it but didn't see dollar amounts. I'm sure it's out there though. Would love to hear them justify their initial weightings

Quote
Current Cryptocurrency ​​Weightings
Bitcoin ​​​                          30.00%
Ethereum​​​                       30.00%
Ripple                            14.14%
Bitcoin Cash                   10.65%
EOS                                6.11%
Litecoin                           3.77%
Dash                               1.67%
Monero                            1.66%
Ethereum Classic              1.00%
Zcash                              1.00%

Their methodology is explained here: https://www.bloombergindices.com/bloomberg-galaxy-crypto-index/
20  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency on: May 07, 2018, 09:55:14 PM
Japanese exchange Coincheck has announced partial resumption of operations with Monero. Its clients will be able to withdraw and sell XMR, but purchases are still unavailable. All previous requests for transactions have been canceled and users will have to initiate new transfers. They will be required to confirm the destination address, and state the purpose of each transaction.

This is very odd. Sell to whom, since each seller requires a buyer. Is the exchange going to trade XMR on its own account? 
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