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521  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] BitDayTrade A fixed interest bond of 3% per week! on: June 22, 2012, 04:06:05 AM
It will be a nice investment opportunity for GLBSE investors if it's fully worked out.

But there are something that's not included in the google doc page. That is, I don't know which one of the following is true.

1. Alberto is the sole owner of BitDayTrade. Only he is responsible of repaying. You are the investment bank/PR for him.

2. Both Alberto and you own some shares of BitDayTrade. You are partly responsible for this bond.

I have to ask because it does make a lot of difference.
522  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] MOORE: Mining Bond Beating the Moore's Law (With Coming Great News!) on: June 22, 2012, 03:50:19 AM
Update

The first batch of MOORE is reduced from 20,000 to 10,000 shares. It's split into IPO sales and private bulk purchase. The numbers of left shares are:

IPO: 471/1000
Private: 1350/9000

Our secret plan will be released at the same time with the next coupon payment.
523  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] MOM.GLBSE.COMPOSITE (an actual) ETF on: June 20, 2012, 04:48:56 AM
You should consider making an actual composite index before the ETF.  SPDRS did not come before the S&P 500.

Some questions.

Will all assets on GLBSE be listed and held based on their market capitalization?

If not all of them, how will they be selected to be included in the ETF?

How will you determine, "Only GLBSE assets with outstanding shares are eligible for inclusion."?  Will you look only at assets that have an ask?  If this is the case, should you instead use an available market capitalization instead of a total market capitalization?

Will you hold bonds?

According to the information page (https://mostofmany.com/etf/1/), it's like holding all available trading GLBSE assets to me. They include everything: stocks, bonds, pirate-related, semi-dead assets, etc.

I think GLBSE-10 or GLBSE-20 based on some selection mechanism will be much more attractive.
524  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] μ - Bitcoin Venture Capital (Asset ID "MU") on: June 20, 2012, 04:38:12 AM
Update

Please don't be scared by the surface value of the shrinking NAV. The NAV is calculated based on the 5day average price of our holdings. The recent panics caused a lot of price fluctuation of mining bonds and stocks, and the fluctuation is amplified by the thin bids.

And furthermore, we have already passed the motion to let us do brokerage business. We are also considering investing in (issuer side of) virtual mining bonds or ASIC companies to hedge the dropping value of mining assets.
525  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] μ - Bitcoin Venture Capital (Asset ID "MU") on: June 20, 2012, 04:24:33 AM
Weekly Financial Disclosure

Time: 12:08 PM, Beijing time
Date: June 20, 2012

Funds of Last Week: 328.917BTC
Number of Total Shares in Circulation: 5000

Assets:

JLP-BMD
Original: 1569shares 393.819BTC
Bought in: 0shares 0.000BTC
Average Holding Price: 0.251BTC
Sold: 0shares 0.000BTC
Average Selling Price: N/A
Holding: 1569+0-0=1569shares 393.819BTC
Net Gain: 0.000BTC
Dividends Paid: 9.771BTC

YABMC
Original: 1105shares 314.925BTC
Bought in: 0shares 0.000BTC
Average Holding Price: 0.285BTC
Sold: 0shares 0.000BTC
Average Selling Price: N/A
Holding: 1105+0-0=1105shares 314.925BTC
Net Gain: 0.000BTC
Dividends Paid: 4.914BTC

PIMP
Original: 799shares 184.569BTC
Bought in: 0shares 0.000BTC
Average Holding Price: 0.231BTC
Sold: 3shares 0.750BTC
Average Selling Price: 0.250BTC
Holding: 799+0-3=796shares 183.876BTC
Net Gain: (0.250-0.231)*3=0.057BTC
Dividends Paid: 3.540BTC

MOVETO.FUND
Original: 150shares 150.000BTC
Bought in: 0shares 0.000BTC
Average Holding Price: 1.000BTC
Sold: 0shares 0.000BTC
Average Selling Price: N/A
Holding: 150+0-0=150shares 150.000BTC
Net Gain: 0.000BTC
Dividends Paid: 0.000BTC

GIGAMINING
Original: 0shares 0.000BTC
Bought in: 220shares 232.200BTC
Average Holding Price: (0.000+232.200)/(0+220)=1.055BTC
Sold: 220shares 253.000BTC
Average Selling Price: 1.150BTC
Holding: 0+220-220=0shares 0.000BTC
Net Gain: 253.000-232.200=20.800BTC
Dividends Paid: 0.312BTC

Holding Funds=
328.917-0.000+0.000+9.771-0.000+0.000+4.914-0.000+0.750+3.540-0.000+0.000+0.000-232.200+253.000+0.312=369.004BTC

Total Net Gain=
0.000+9.771+0.000+4.914+0.057+3.540+0.000+0.000+20.800+0.312=39.394BTC

Calculated Dividends: 39.394*35%=13.788BTC

Usable Funds: 369.004-13.788=355.216BTC

Actual Dividends: 13.788BTC

NAV: 355.216+1569*0.172+1105*0.214+796*0.232+150*1.000=1196.226BTC
Weekly NAV Growth: (1196.226-1359.006)/1359.006=-11.978%
526  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] MOORE: Mining Bond Beating the Moore's Law (With Coming Great News!) on: June 20, 2012, 04:05:19 AM
4th Payment

Calculation time: June 20, 03:59:43 forum time

Number of difficulty change: 0
Number of block reward change: 0

Time interval:
  Starting from: June 13, 04:18:48
  Ending at: June 20, 03:59:43
  Total time: 603655s
  Difficulty: 1,583,177.85

Hashrate of this week: 1.02694MH/s

coupon/share = (1.02694*10^6)/(2^32)*(603655*50/1583177.85)=0.0045584

Number of Shares: 6175

Total Payment: 28.14812
527  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] Philj's Impressive Mining Project (PIMP) 1MH/s FREE ASIC UPGRADE on: June 18, 2012, 04:05:32 PM
These bonds are sold at 0.25 BTC, they currently yield 0.0044315 BTC per week, correct? Thats what, ~7% per month?  So you are looking at ~40% ROI on your investment as dividends by December, at which time, mining revenue will half.

Mining revenue will half. Difficulty will also drop to neutralize some of it.

 So you'd be lucky  if dividend payments compensate the expected loss in value of your bonds and thats when completely ignoring the rather obvious trend over the past 6 months where difficulty has increased steadily by almost 10% per month on average

The difficulty curve of the past 6 months shows a slowing down of acceleration to me. And in spite of the mass production of FPGAs, the difficulty hasn't recovered to the level of last August's. So it's a drop over the past 10 months.

... a trend that will explode once they or anyone else starts shipping ASICs.

Of course, it will even explode more once 20nm ASICs destroys 130, 65, and 45nm ASICs. The problem is when.

I dont understand how anyone can believe this is a sound investment. Mind you, that goes for all mining bonds on GLBSE, not just Philj's..

Besides the reasons I listed above, I have to add another: Imagine the Bitcoin price drops to 1/10 of the current level. If you have 100BTC (600+$) and don't invest in anything now you only 60+$. But if you buy PIMP bonds at 0.25BTC/each, we can safely predict that the difficulty will decrease to at least 1/4 of the current level (hard to pay electricity bills, lots of mining operations closing). Then you have a 28% per month return, which translates to 1934BTC after a year if you reinvest, that is, more than 1160$. Isn't it a good investment if you could turn 60$ to 1160$ in a year?

Of course I'm exaggerating with a nearly impossible scenario. I also neglected the halving of block reward. But this is the idea.

I really really wish I could short sell them. Perhaps I should instead set up a virtual mining bond thats not backed by any mining equipment but will just pay out dividends based on difficulty.

I remember someone talked about exactly the same thing before. Not sure if he's already doing so or not.
528  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] M.ETF - The first Mining ETF listed on the GLBSE on: June 18, 2012, 09:19:27 AM
Sounds like hes had some issues and hes travelling ?

But the dividends of JLP-BMD have already been paid.
529  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] μ - Bitcoin Venture Capital (Asset ID "MU") on: June 17, 2012, 10:44:46 AM
Update

The motion had been passed.

Voted Yea:3301
Voted Nay:17

The "8301" on the motion-60 board is because of my mis-click with my unsold 5000 shares. 3301 is the correct number of shares which voted yes.
530  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] PureMining: Infinite-term, deterministic mining bond on: June 17, 2012, 05:11:39 AM
I agree with most of your ideas. But as the issuer of MOORE, I have to make some comments.

Also, since the chosen appreciation rate is arbitrary, it stands in the way of standardization and commoditization.

Exactly. As I admitted in my main thread from the start, our bond is not fungible with deterministic bonds, so I have to do price discovery myself without the help of other people's prices. And I also admit that my pricing includes the compensation to many of my potential risks.

However, the strategy of MOORE is to make its price less prone to technology advances. For technology changes, there are gradual ones and disruptive ones. The policy of my current hard-code appreciation of hashrates aims to neutralize the first, and I will also cover the second with my new adjustments to the contract of my bonds.

I prefer the scenario where the issuer just offers more bonds if he wishes to expand utilizing new hardware opportunities, and investors can buy them if they wish to maintain or increase the value of their investment.

The essence of MOORE is I do the re-investment for them. Even if in the end the investors just get the same as the scenario they do re-investments themselves, the psychological effect of "our bond is not losing value as much as others are" is an advantage both for me and for the investors.
531  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] MOORE: Mining Bond Beating the Moore's Law (With Coming Great News!) on: June 16, 2012, 02:20:39 PM
When the ASIC appears it will definitely have some effect on the market. I expect maximum 4x difficulty increases for awhile after they appear. Really depends if they dribble the ASIC onto the market or have mass production.

Glad to see you are on top of the situation and keeping us updated.

Sure, thanks. Just stay tuned for the secret plan! Smiley
532  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] MOORE: Mining Bond Beating the Moore's Law on: June 16, 2012, 08:23:31 AM
I don't know if normal silicon chips could work at the extremely low temperature in liquid helium. Some professionals give me a science popularization please.

They don't Tongue

Thanks. Anyway, my fancy freezing fluid is for much much larger objects than several pieces of hardware. Cheesy
533  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Admins can close this subforum on: June 16, 2012, 07:54:39 AM
Well, because FPGAs are simply destroyed.

Could you show me the picture of a working ASIC mining chip please?
534  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] MOORE: Mining Bond Beating the Moore's Law on: June 15, 2012, 05:42:40 AM
Great News

Recently, many people are concerned with the sudden drop of mining bond prices. For those who worry that our 0.89% week growth is not enough to neutralize the pressure of BTC price rallying and the dramatic improvement of hardware, we are planning to launch a secret plan for you. The code name is Liquid Helium.

The details are to be announced. Smiley

Just be careful not to blow your hardware Smiley

I don't know if normal silicon chips could work at the extremely low temperature in liquid helium. Some professionals give me a science popularization please.

However, the liquid helium is not for my hardware, but something else. Grin
535  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] MOORE: Mining Bond Beating the Moore's Law on: June 15, 2012, 05:07:19 AM
Great News

Recently, many people are concerned with the sudden drop of mining bond prices. For those who worry that our 0.89% week growth is not enough to neutralize the pressure of BTC price rallying and the dramatic improvement of hardware, we are planning to launch a secret plan for you. The code name is Liquid Helium.

The details are to be announced. Smiley
536  Economy / Securities / Re: [μ] Offering Opportunities to Short Mining Bonds on: June 13, 2012, 11:04:23 AM
+1

Can this be automated somehow or will you use a spreadsheet?

It's possible to be semi-automatic but not full-automatic. I will use a spreadsheet first.
537  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] μ - Bitcoin Venture Capital (Asset ID "MU") on: June 13, 2012, 11:02:20 AM
What is your view on fixed mining bonds compared to those where there is a growth element to the offering?

ie a percent of dividends is held to finance more equipment ?

Well you could simulate growth bonds/stocks with fixed mining bonds by manually buy new mining bonds with a percent of your dividends. On the other hand, you could simulate fixed mining bonds by selling a little of your growth bonds each week.

The important thing is timing. With growth bonds/stocks, you are basically let the issuer manage some of your dividends. They may also make mistakes like normal investors do. They might miss the discount of hardware, entering ASIC mining too early and bashed by succeeding brand new chips, etc. But what you gain is the save of time and energy to choose and decide where to do the re-investments.
538  Economy / Speculation / Re: "Fundamentals" study: stepping again into ogrr on: June 13, 2012, 07:50:27 AM
"In total there are 33 users online :: 1 registered, 0 hidden and 32 guests"

Looks dead to me. The guests are probably mostly some google crawlers.

Maybe, but there are some moderate number of tradings happening in the new D3 trading forums within the last 30 days.
539  Economy / Speculation / "Fundamentals" study: stepping again into ogrr on: June 13, 2012, 06:52:40 AM
I found something interesting:

1. The online user number tripled from the last time I studied it. It's 33 when I opened its webpage. The portion of registered users is still low though.

2. Someone was offering call option contracts between BTC and D3 gold.

3. Many people are still preferring Paypal in spite of being on this BTC trading forum, as seen in some replies.

Update: I deleted the URL of (2) to avoid being taken as advertisements.
540  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: ASIC = The end of decentralized mining on: June 13, 2012, 06:13:21 AM
I disagree.  It will happen eventually.  As long as ASIC is not deployed it remains the "cheat card" for entities who can pay the upfront cost.

Want to 51% attack Bitcoin.  It would be stupid to buy 100,000 GPUs.  Spend a couple million building an ASIC processor and 51% attack it on the cheap.  Bitcoin will never be safe from deep pockets (govt, banks, other entrenched interests) as long as there is a "buy your way to victory" option.

Good miners having access to ASIC means the "bad miners" have no competitive advantage.  It comes back to a battle of sheer numbers.  It also has the advantage of killing off botnets and rogue system admins.  They simply can't compete.

If, say, NSA would want to attack Bitcoin right now, they will not be buying GPUS's or FPGA's. NSA has it's own foundry and should they want it they can produce large amount of ASIC ships relatively quickly. This means that they have "generation" advantage. They can fight GPU's with ASIC's. This window of opportunity is closing up quickly with mass proliferation of ASIC mining hardware. Meaning they will have no "generation" advantage. This all of the sudden will be not GPU v ASIC fight but ASIC vs ASIC fight.

Yes, I was wrong on my reply. I agree with both of you in this aspect.
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