Bitcoin Forum
February 03, 2023, 01:02:53 AM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 24.0.1 [Torrent]
 
  Home Help Search Login Register More  
  Show Posts
Pages: [1]
1  Economy / Speculation / Re: The single digits believers thread on: April 15, 2013, 10:42:49 AM
... bitcoins are entirely intangible. The value is strictly determined by what people are willing to pay. Much more of a "So says we all!" sort of thing, which leads to swings from 2 to 260's, and back down to 50's in months. That works out to be a what, 13,000% growth, then crashing down to 20% of peak value over a week, and i doubt we have bottomed out quite yet.

BTC value should be determined by supply and demand. And all we know how hard to mine BTC nowadays. Recent price volatility is normal, because manipulators (sharks) enter the town and playing with the small guys. It was so clear that this sell-off was coming: (slate article written on just before the big sell-off, Forbes and Time enter the scene, CNN almost every 12 hours written new piece of article about BTC).

I think we're entering more normal phase now. Maybe a first time in history (at least for last 100 years) people are experiencing a free market. Really free: no regulation, no manipulation, no fraud. These new generation of ASICs will change many parameters especially difficulty parameter which is very important for small guys. I mean small guys as GPU miners no matter how big their rigs, they are still small when compared to cheapest ASIC design.

Another important point have to be remembered all the time: BTC and other cryptocurrencies and its markets will change all traditional technical analysis tools of old financial community. The terminology should be modified. Example: Overbought, oversold, profit taking, etc... These words don't make too much sense to BTC and its friends. But hoarding is a word should be carefully analysed.

Ok, where to start...

First off, in your first paragraph you talk about the volatility being because of manipulators, and then in the second paragraph you talk about how it is a free market with no regulation or Manipulation

Mixed signals there.

But a lot of regulation is meant to smooth out volatility, and make it harder to manipulate the market. It still happens, and often times the regulations end up going too far and just add more pointless work. But that is just a symptom of pencil pushers making more work just to keep themselves employed and because they think if they can make a rule for everything, then they can control human behavior(Wrong, btw, but that is another rant for another time...)


Second, you say that bitcoin should be all about supply/demand, in other words 'So say we all!' Tongue there is nothing driving the price other than personal opinions, no outside factors at all. Which increases the volatility and leads to the massive swings we have seen, and will always see out of bitcoin in its current form.


Third, you cant just throw out every traditional technical analysis tool just because of bitcoin. A lot of those tools are based on human behavior and that isnt going to change just because bitcoin showed up to the party.


And last but not least, no one really knows what ASIC will do. It will make the difficulty skyrocket yes. The higher difficulty will increase safety against a 51% attack, but it will do nothing to stop people from manipulating the price of bitcoins what so ever. Meaning there will still be the crazy volatility.

But, when people that are only mining on a gpu get shut down because of the difficulty spike, will they continue using bitcoins, or will they just wash their hands of it? How many people are going to be willing to buy a ASIC farm just to support the bitcoin network.
If the mob starts buying dedicated ASIC hardware it will likely signal that bitcoin is around to stay, If only a select few buy massive amounts, it could well signal the end of bitcoin. The whole point of bitcoin is that no one owns it. If a relatively small group owns all the hashing power, the point is lost. And instead of the gov owning the system, it becomes owned by farm operators.

In other words, ASIC could end up killing bitcoin. Or it might make it a lasting thing. No one really knows.


And lets not even bring up the fraud aspect. (scammer tags get thrown around almost daily on these forums it seems like Tongue)


Anyways... Too many people on these forums seem to think fiat is simply evil and should be entirely abolished. They seem to thrive on the idea of tearing down the system for fun. Or ""Rebelling against the Machine!".
*Snickers*
Simply put, it will never happen. Tongue Both fiat, and bitcoin have their own respective niches. Both have their benefits and flaws, and people just need to understand both.
2  Economy / Speculation / Re: The single digits believers thread on: April 14, 2013, 09:41:08 PM
But yeah, people like to talk crap about fiat... But the dollar in my pocket doesn't shift value from 2 to 260, and then crash back down into the 50's in the span of months. Tongue
You like charts and reality? Just check out historical charts on any fiat money to gold, silver, palladium or whatever like bread, gasoline, wheat, water.... should I continue? Is this crap talk?

Your volatility concern deserve attention. I'm with you on this.

gold, silver, palladium, are all sort of in the same group as bitcoins to me.  People gambling on where the value of an item is going to go. Don't get me wrong, people do it on everything, but some items have some intrinsic value associated with them that helps to stabilize the price, and the first three you listed don't fall into that category to me.

But, looking at a 10 year chart, gold is fairly steady, silver a bit less. Palladium has spikes a bit more common with bitcoin, but it cant even come close to matching the swings/volatility bitcoin has gone thru.
Gasoline is fairly controlled and regulated, don't fool yourself there Tongue

bread, wheat, water are all much more tangible, and while i cant find charts for them as easy, i would be shocked if they shifted value more than 50% or so in the span of months without some massive storm/whatnot disrupting the system, and prices will return to the norm relatively fast after something disrupts the system.

That is the difference at the end of the day, bitcoins are entirely intangible. The value is strictly determined by what people are willing to pay. Much more of a "So says we all!" sort of thing, which leads to swings from 2 to 260's, and back down to 50's in months. That works out to be a what, 13,000% growth, then crashing down to 20% of peak value over a week, and i doubt we have bottomed out quite yet.

I dare you to find anything else that has the same volatility as bitcoin Tongue
3  Economy / Speculation / Re: The single digits believers thread on: April 14, 2013, 10:41:24 AM
i was expecting single digits until around the 120-140 mark on the way up. But with the current difficulty, and how high it went before crashing, my bet is it will go down to the 20's.

More people will want to get in at the ground floor before the next bubble and that will keep the price up.

As far as if we will ever hit single digits. Of course, the only question is when Tongue be it 40 years from now when something better pops up, or something breaks the system tomorrow... Who knows... *Shrugs*


But yeah, people like to talk crap about fiat... But the dollar in my pocket doesn't shift value from 2 to 260, and then crash back down into the 50's in the span of months. Tongue

I don't have to worry about going from a car payment, to buying crackers for dinner over-night. Tongue  Bitcoin at this point is just like buying a lottery ticket. "Will i win big? Or will i wallpaper my bathroom with loser tickets?!?" Tongue
4  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bear appreciation thread!! on: April 13, 2013, 10:27:01 AM
Bumping, since (apparently) some of you have forgotten about the last crash already.

be careful with your money,people.... Undecided

it is human nature to get ripped off, nothing you say or do will change that.

Years from now a bitcoin might be worth 10,000 dollars, or it might be worth nothing at all. No one really knows.

The louder someone shouts about how "We are going to see single digits soon!' or "More Cheap coins!", the more likely they are to have something to gain from it. Be it by dropping the price so they can buy low and sell high, or just trying to force the price up even higher, making what they already have worth more.

Which is why your best bet is to laugh at both of the extremists and make up your own mind. Tongue


Personally i think the price is still high, but i could well be wrong. I also believe the new hardware starting to hit the market is driving this massive price surge(trying to get in before the difficulty drives gpu's out of the market, and the turmoil associated with that.)

The new hardware starting to hit the market could solidify bitcoin into something lasting, or it could drive out the little guy and bring the whole system crashing down. Again, no one knows... And anyone who says otherwise is full of crap. Tongue
5  Economy / Speculation / Re: How does it feel to have sold < $120? on: April 12, 2013, 04:18:19 AM
Yes I am baaaaaaaaaaaaaaack. Grin Grin Grin

For you tards that sold below $120 (in the past 24 hours) how does it feel?



i would say they are pretty happy at the moment...
6  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Butterfly Jalapeno Asic Device on: September 10, 2012, 12:36:09 AM
from what i have seen in months of lurking on these forums... They tend to be late delivering, and the product don't quite measure up to what they claim it should in press releases.

Still good, looking at their mini-rigs and other existing products, but not as good as they claim it will be.

*Shrugs*

true but they have also stated that if the product doesnt deliver what they say, they will reinburst there customers...
not a "fanboy" or anything, but hoping they are close to there estimate as im considering atleast 2 of there rigs to start with Wink

Oh agree, if they are wrong about their claims their track record shows the will try to make good.

But a reimbursement after months of holding your cash and delivering late isn't amazing in my book. Better than nothing for sure... But not amazing.
7  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Why do I have to write five POSTS to get out of here? on: September 10, 2012, 12:30:22 AM
replies are posts.  this was a post.

you could do five posts in about five seconds.

which makes this part of the system entirely pointless..

Whee now i have 3 pointless posts and i am almost out of this section...  Roll Eyes
Not entirely pointless.  The "auto-troll" was the type of person who infested these forums last year and the infestation was pretty bad.

Troll creates and account, blatantly spams and trollers, gets banned, creates another.  The zero cost means they would make dozens and dozens of accounts.  This makes trolling require at least some "work".  Trolls tends to not like the working part.  Even if they make one accont if it gets banned 10 minutes out of the noob zone they tend to not make as many accounts.

Your logic is like saying "Seatbelts don't save 100% of lives therefore seatbelts should be removed".  The stats show the noob rules reduce (not eliminate) the amount of trolling nonsense among new members. 

Nah, 5 pointless posts requires no work and can be done in as you said five seconds. By your own definition that doesn't qualify as "work". Meaning it doesn't repel the trolls... I understand the 4 hour requirement and yes i can see that preventing trolls.

also, there is the whitelist thread
yes, but that actually requires more work than making 5 pointless posts Tongue and having to wait for a mod to authorize the whitelist.

Trust me, i did consider it months ago when i finally signed up. And lets keep in mind that i had been lurking for months before i eventually signed up because i had nothing i wanted to say. Only after signing up did i see the post requirements and started trying to remember to login when i was simply lurking to build up some hours here and there.
8  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Where Matthew Failed in His bet on: September 09, 2012, 11:57:39 PM
As I said in another thread....

You guys are taking this way too far.

Matthew welched on a silly bet, to try and prove a point. You guys are treating him as if he TOOK MONEY OUT OF YOUR POCKETS.

Considering how relaxed most people have been, in regards to Trendon Shavers aka Pirateat40 (causing most of my frustration) I find Matthew's situation to be a bit 'scape-goatish' under the circumstances.

Does Matthew really deserve to be punished to the extent he currently is being punished ?

There are far more people on this forum that have done far worse and still don't seem to have a scammer tag or their names dragged through the mud and THEY ACTUALLY LOST PEOPLE'S MONEY. Nothing was lost in the 'Matthew' situation, right ?


Shall we make our way to the Lending and Securities Forums and start getting those scammer tags applied to the people that actually TOOK REAL MONEY from people and not simply made a bet where NO MONEY CHANGED HANDS and cost the participants exactly ZERO... ?

He set the rules.
He broke the rules.
He got hit with a punishment of his own making.

This isn't like people are setting out to lynch an innocent man.
If he had won, some people would have paid him, and some wouldn't have. The ones that didn't pay him would have received the scammer tag, exactly like his original post stated, just like he eventually received when he failed to honor his word.

Would you be arguing so much if he had won the bet and people who didn't pay him were receiving the scammer tag?
9  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Discussion about 10,000BTC Bet (Official) on: September 09, 2012, 11:51:53 PM
What a fucking clown. Good job dicking over pirate debt holders even more by allowing them to "hedge" with a fraudulent bet you never intended to pay. Good job on teaching those guys a lesson  Roll Eyes

Oh come now. Theymos allows ponzi schemes on the forum, then gets miffed when people don't read the bet their agreeing to in my thread? The double standard is twice as hilarious as the "scammer" tag. I'll wear it with pride. Remember, remember, the 9th of September. (And to everyone who dared to say that people were "stupid" and "ruining bitcoin" by investing into Pirate, you may now eat your socks for complaining about losing this bet)

I have been semi watching your bs thread for a couple weeks. Personally i never expected you to pay up if you lost. Although i was expecting something more along the lines of "I will pay you, in 40 years, MUHAHAHAHA(Cheezy troll laugh)" Stupid, but at least it would sort of fit within the framework of your "Bet"

Trying to wiggle out with your crap about paying yourself is just an Epic Fail though. Lets go back and look at the bet for why.


If you truly believe that Pirate is a scam/ponzi, then this is a no-brainer easy money for you.
"Easy money for you" When you had no intention of paying anything, to anyone, but yourself? Personally i am guessing you expected to win at the start, then woke up to the real world and tried to play it up as your "Master plan" to teach us all a lesson, and look like less of an idiot when it blew up. I could be wrong, and you could have just been trolling for all these weeks, but at the end of the day you did earn the scammer tag.


Anyone (including myself) who renigs on their bets will be labeled a scammer on the forums.
Once again "Easy money for you", this means you will pay the people who bet with you if you lose. Thus, by your own words, you are a scammer. Trying to wiggle out of it by paying yourself, something no judge in the world would accept(Without a substantial bribe) is just pathetic.

On a more humorus note... When are you going to report yourself to the ""Bitcoin Police""?(Another HUGE Red Flag that you had no intention of paying anyone, if in fact, you did eventually lose)

Theymos will retain the IP addresses of everyone who has committed here and as you are marked a scammer for not paying, you will also be reported to the bitcoin police and tracked.
10  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Newbie restrictions on: September 09, 2012, 11:29:51 PM
ridiculous restrictions are forcing newbies to post spam messages like this one. An alternative is needed..
Agree...

(Yay, that is my 5th pointless post!... *Shudders* i hate being forced to post crap like this just to get access to the regular forums)
11  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Butterfly Jalapeno Asic Device on: September 09, 2012, 11:27:26 PM
from what i have seen in months of lurking on these forums... They tend to be late delivering, and the product don't quite measure up to what they claim it should in press releases.

Still good, looking at their mini-rigs and other existing products, but not as good as they claim it will be.

*Shrugs*
12  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Why do I have to write five POSTS to get out of here? on: September 09, 2012, 11:23:18 PM
replies are posts.  this was a post.

you could do five posts in about five seconds.

which makes this part of the system entirely pointless..

Whee now i have 3 pointless posts and i am almost out of this section...  Roll Eyes
13  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Introduce yourself :) on: September 09, 2012, 11:18:20 PM
anyone else find it incredibly silly that there is a post requirement before you can begin posting?... hours logged in... Sure, fine, i can understand that.

But why make me post 5 completely worthless posts in some kiddy forum with no real relevance before letting me comment where i want to?

Not everyone makes multiple posts a day. Some people will only make 1-2 real posts in a month over an entire fourm...
14  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Matthew Neal Wright: You have been reported to the SEC and Korean authorities. on: September 09, 2012, 11:13:48 PM
He deserves the scammer tag, but reporting him to authorities will get you nowhere.

And considering how much of a troll he clearly is, it will only make him more excited to hear this.
Pages: [1]
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!