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1  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 07, 2021, 12:51:45 PM
For whatever reason you have to sell, having a strategy set up in advance is never a bad thing. Trying to match the top is far more difficult than predicting the bottom (e.g. 200W MA) in my opinion. For that reason, a sell ladder can be a good strategy. It's automatic and it won't cause you stress trying to match the exact top.

I personally sold some coins between $30-40k to reinvest in real-estate. I could have held them longer for more fiat gains, but I had a strategy set up a long time ago and I held on to it. No regrets.

Right now I have no need for more fiat, so I have no further plans to sell anything.
I have had this same plan personally. I could have been a billionaire if I held on to all of my coins. Sounds tragic but I am just as happy being a decamillionaire Wink. On one hand, you never know for sure what it may reach, on the other, you want some gains in-between. Make a plan that you can accept the consequences of whichever way it goes.
2  Economy / Exchanges / Re: Wirex- Bitcoin Debit Card | Buy Bitcoin | Mobile Banking | Send Money on: April 16, 2020, 12:00:12 PM
Something fishy I going on.

When did the problems start and how long has it been dragging on for?

I've found support pretty useless but relatively quick to respond to enquiries on the occasions I got in touch with them. The only crypto card provider I wouldn't assume was radioactive is Coinbase. Everyone else gets treated with some wariness.
I never really had problems, they would just keep asking to reverify. I did so many times. Maybe once every three months. But this time they asked my income details. I submitted them and then my account was closed, they then asked me to submit addresses for me to withdraw my funds. But the days are passing and my coins stuck lol.

They asked again and I provided documents, then my account got closed, reason withheld for security purposes...

Is your account closed for good, they've informed you they will not let you use their service any more?Because it's a big difference between suspended and closed.

Depends what is happening there, due to AML laws it can be a pretty long wait to get those funds, legally if indeed they have an investigation they can freeze those more than a year and it is little you can do. Maybe a complaint to the financial ombudsman would help you a little, you might know what is going on there but be prepared for a long wait.
At least it seems like you're in the EU, there are still some ways for people here to file complaints against them even after Brexit...

Seems these corona times lead to losses which they decide to make up with customers funds?!

Doubt that they shouldn't be affected by it, what worries me is that crappy token.

And, anyone updated their app today?
Just when I hit update, I received a phone call and when checking back the numbers are not loading anymore, they stay blurred like on loading but no matter how much I wait nothing changes.
I guess I'll have to reinstall it!



It's closed for good it seems. I'm not sure what triggered it. I might have broken their policy because with some online purchases the wirex visa card was denied and I used the wirex visa to pay through PayPal, other times I've topped up PayPal with the wirex visa card. I'm not sure if it's against their policy, they're not telling. I've heard from others I know they just close the account.

I took this to support escalations and see if they do anything, if not I'll have to file a complaint. At least I have proof I sent 0.3btc, they take 0.01 for deposit fee or something (ridiculous).

Some company should step up and offer worldwide service like this without this bullshit. All I want is a card to make online purchases and ATM withdrawals. I don't want my bank to know every damn detail about my whole life. I'm chained like a damn dog. I know coinbase is one of the more serious providers but no EU cards AFAIK.
3  Economy / Exchanges / Re: Wirex- Bitcoin Debit Card | Buy Bitcoin | Mobile Banking | Send Money on: April 15, 2020, 04:44:00 PM
Something fishy I going on. I've used wirex for 1.5 years now and have verified and reverified a couple times. They asked again and I provided documents, then my account got closed, reason withheld for security purposes... It's taking a very long time to withdraw the 0.29 BTC I had in there... I was naive to build trust but so far they never stole from me. Seems I might lose big time for my stupidity. Where do I turn for legal action? I have proof I sent to my wirex Bitcoin address, I can't access the wirex account but it's in their registry. Seems these corona times lead to losses which they decide to make up with customers funds?!
4  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 30, 2020, 08:09:40 PM
Well.
Being quarantined sucks.
But do you know what sucks the most?
Fascism.

First example: Orban getting full powers to "fight Coronavirus".
Who is going to strip him from those powers if/when crisis is solved?


Quote
The nationalist government in Hungary passed a law Monday granting sweeping emergency powers that Prime Minister Viktor Orban says are necessary to fight the coronavirus pandemic.

Those powers include sidelining parliament and giving Orban the power to rule by decree indefinitely. The law would punish those who spread false information about the pandemic with up to five years in prison.

"Changing our lives is now unavoidable," Orban told lawmakers last week. "Everyone has to leave their comfort zone. This law gives the government the power and means to defend Hungary."

During Monday's vote, he said: "When this emergency ends, we will give back all powers, without exception."

But critics insist that Orban is using the pandemic to grab power. "An indefinite and uncontrolled state of emergency cannot guarantee that the basic principles of democracy will be observed," Council of Europe Secretary General Marija Pejcinovic Buric wrote to Orban on March 24.



https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/30/823778208/new-law-gives-sweeping-powers-to-hungarys-orban-alarming-rights-advocates?t=1585593271940


Second, subtler example: we are slowly sliding toward China.
Mass control smuggled as a required Health Prevention Feature.

Quote
"We could extend the tracking through apps that have been talked about a lot in the last few weeks, and we could ask for them in these mass situations." Purpose? Understand the risk of a person who must attend the event, in order to evaluate what to do. For example, on the ticket purchased, the words ?The organization reserves the right to deny entry to those who have had risky behavior regarding the virus or dangerous symptoms?.

https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=it&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.corriere.it%2Feconomia%2Fconsumi%2F20_marzo_30%2Fbar-ascensori-metro-concerti-cinema-come-cambiera-nostra-vita-il-coronavirus-e7a980b0-727f-11ea-bc49-338bb9c7b205.shtml


FUCK YOU!



Orban is a chapter of its own, a bad example for the european union, and not the first time. This is even what drives the member countries apart, away from anything united.

It's always the same. Responsible people follow the rules, as a self explanatory community sense, but the few of us that are simple minded don't care. Because of these few, and their actions, everybody gets punished. The road to mass surveillance was paved with very small steps, like forbidding unregistered prepaid cards in the EU, one of the last changes to make global tracking possible, as well as intelligence exchange (which spy at each other AND claim to be partnering).
Just pervert. Orwell would turn nuts nowadays.
Use cash instead. Boycott cashless businesses.
5  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 30, 2020, 08:08:25 PM
Well.
Being quarantined sucks.
But do you know what sucks the most?
Fascism.

First example: Orban getting full powers to "fight Coronavirus".
Who is going to strip him from those powers if/when crisis is solved?


Quote
The nationalist government in Hungary passed a law Monday granting sweeping emergency powers that Prime Minister Viktor Orban says are necessary to fight the coronavirus pandemic.

Those powers include sidelining parliament and giving Orban the power to rule by decree indefinitely. The law would punish those who spread false information about the pandemic with up to five years in prison.

"Changing our lives is now unavoidable," Orban told lawmakers last week. "Everyone has to leave their comfort zone. This law gives the government the power and means to defend Hungary."

During Monday's vote, he said: "When this emergency ends, we will give back all powers, without exception."

But critics insist that Orban is using the pandemic to grab power. "An indefinite and uncontrolled state of emergency cannot guarantee that the basic principles of democracy will be observed," Council of Europe Secretary General Marija Pejcinovic Buric wrote to Orban on March 24.



https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/30/823778208/new-law-gives-sweeping-powers-to-hungarys-orban-alarming-rights-advocates?t=1585593271940


Second, subtler example: we are slowly sliding toward China.
Mass control smuggled as a required Health Prevention Feature.

Quote
"We could extend the tracking through apps that have been talked about a lot in the last few weeks, and we could ask for them in these mass situations." Purpose? Understand the risk of a person who must attend the event, in order to evaluate what to do. For example, on the ticket purchased, the words ?The organization reserves the right to deny entry to those who have had risky behavior regarding the virus or dangerous symptoms?.

https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=it&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.corriere.it%2Feconomia%2Fconsumi%2F20_marzo_30%2Fbar-ascensori-metro-concerti-cinema-come-cambiera-nostra-vita-il-coronavirus-e7a980b0-727f-11ea-bc49-338bb9c7b205.shtml


FUCK YOU!



Seems like what Taiwan did
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762689

Id be very proud to be Taiwanese right now making less than half the income of Western countries like US, UK, Sweden etc at less than half the tax rates of those countries yet still having the infrastructure and legislature to not let people die in such a way. Maybe there is reason to sacrifice one thing for something bigger, if you have the capability of seeing the bigger picture that is.

Sad to see such a wonderful old thread filled with communist/socialist dogma.
6  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 08, 2020, 03:47:23 PM
Socialism: Education and health care should be free for everybody. Health and education is a birth right. The rich must pay for them. (Europe)

Capitalism: If you aren't rich enough, you don't deserve to live. Dieeee (USA)

I'll go with Europe.
Just little research would show you it is the lower and middle class who pays the bill, the elite pay with their spare change for some lobbyism to change laws and make capital flight legal through loopholes, with transnational corporations, sending all profits to tax havens.

Instead of sticking to simple examples, why don't you go to the root philosophical differences. Individual property rights vs no property rights. Fighting you way up for greater pay vs almost equal pay for all. Individual responsibility vs collective responsibility. If you're smart enough to understand why Bitcoin exists and why there is a demand for it you can figure out the implications of socialism if you just try.
7  Economy / Exchanges / Re: [ANN] SPECTROCOIN.COM Cryptocurrency Exchange, Blockchain Wallet, Prepaid Card on: September 11, 2018, 05:41:26 PM
Hope that you don't have money on card all blocked
Last version is that mc visa set up new regulation so his provider need to follow
Any service what want to distribute cards needs to deliver paper to visa and mc
I think that SC will not has cards anytime soon
Nope no money deposited. I already have the card from allied wallet. Hope they manage to fulfill their duties and make this service possible...
8  Economy / Exchanges / Re: [ANN] SPECTROCOIN.COM Cryptocurrency Exchange, Blockchain Wallet, Prepaid Card on: September 11, 2018, 03:38:16 PM
Fortunately I wasn't affected by wavecrest but afterwards I saw the announcement for new cards with alliedwallet I got one, once I got it I tried to activate it and this wasn't possible. Contacted support they said technical issues but wouldn't mention what kind, or any timeframe for when cards will be functional. Seems like it takes endlessly long for these services to provide anything and I have paid but never been able to use a card... Lost money to bitpay/wavecrest (didn't load the wallet just the cost of the card) last year without getting to use the card for a single damn transaction...

Spectrocoin seems legitimate, but seriously what's up with taking money for a card when it doesn't work? And why not give clear answers as to when the service will be functional?

Will update with review when I manage to make POS transaction and ATM withdrawal with my card.
9  Economy / Speculation / Re: BTC will be back in $1,000 ? on: July 01, 2017, 08:57:26 AM
Not a single rational argument has been presented in this thread. People are still hanging on to that optimism like never before. It is very evident that very few people have been tracking bitcoin long enough to realize that just because we hit an ATH and adoption increased greatly, does not mean it will never drop. For every single rally up to a new ATH the same cycle repeats. People are so overwhelmingly optimistic and shun anyone who is bearish, as they do in this thread.

For your information, even if we do drop to $1200, hell even $8-900, this does not mean much. It would just mean that bitcoin is doing what it has been doing the past 7 years where you have been able to trade it for money. Adoption is coming in waves and with each waves end comes a correction.

It is evident though that with each adoption cycle, less and less technically literate people hop on board. A good example is to see how people invest in ETH and ICOs, if you would force them to explain how both work, the vast majority would not be able to explain, because if they did theyd realize how bad it is.

I'm not saying this is the end for bitcoin. I'm saying that in all likelihood bitcoin will correct and there will be new highs later in time.

Check google trends for bitcoin. It is surely and steadily dropping since may 25th: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%203-m&q=bitcoin

As this long lasting bubble loses its steam, volume drops, 2600 is the new normal, then 2500 is the new normal, then 2400 is the new normal... and eventually you have a bear market: https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg30zigHourlyzczsg2017-06-11zeg2017-07-02ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

that lasts until next bull market Smiley
10  Economy / Speculation / Re: Simple price analysis and metric correlations on: May 28, 2017, 05:12:53 PM
Wow, This is the first time I see this thread. It was always buried under pile of other useless threads.
You your market and price predictions were extremely accurate and because of that I want to ask you,
will you continue your analysis of future bitcoin price, and market trends? Please edit opening post or create part two of this thread.

BTW what is your prediction for max price of BTC in 2017?


Thank you for your kind words. It was extremely accurate but then again my analysis is really simple, its just that I have retained a lot of memory from what has happened with the bitcoin price so my view is "sober" and unaffected by temporary changes in the economy.

I guess I can continue, its not like I will forget about bitcoin.

One thing has changed with bull market #10. It took a very long time and the timing between bull market tops are off. The start of bull market #10 was good, but it was supposed to end late last year or early this year. We will have to wait and see what happens with the timing.

As mentioned before this might crash spectacularly and continue a long and hard bear markat, grinding its way to a bottom. Or it may do like in April 2013, retain much of the gains, and then do another bull market.

I would not expect a $10k high yet. If the price increase ratio still holds and the price increase factor does too (they should be closer to 1.3 and 2.25 respectively), it should hover towards ~1500 and run up to ~3500. The ratios are then getting closer and closer to 1 though so I am not so optimistic in this prediction as the previous ones. If it does then evidently next bull markets will not be dramatic at all. Pretty much like most other hard assets, it will take years for the value to appreciate e.g. 100%.
11  Economy / Speculation / Re: Simple price analysis and metric correlations on: May 28, 2017, 03:35:42 PM
Timing correlations
There seems to be a set cyclical pattern on the timing of bull markets. The definition of a bull market in this thread is an uptrend lasting over a month and moving the price up a lot. The following bull markets have occured:

  • #1) June 2011 bull market going from $0.8 to $32
  • #2) January 2012 bull market going from $2 to $7
  • #3) August 2012 bull market going from $5 to $15
  • #4) April 2013 bull market going from $13 to $260
  • #5) November 2013 bull market going from $125 to $1175
  • #6) June 2014 bull market going from $425 to $675
  • #7) March 2015 bull market going from $166 to $300?
  • #8) November 2015 bull market going from $230 to $500
  • #9) June 2016 bull market going from $450 to $780
  • #10) Late 2016/early 2017 bull market, which made an unexpected change; it lasted more than twice as long as previous ones, going from $600 to $2800 approx

There is an obvious cyclical correlation. Each bull market is 7-9 months apart. During these bull market occurs the only lasting bull markets. The rest of the time, BTCUSD is constantly in a bear market. The bull markets which reach a new ATH are henceforth called high magnitude bull markets. They occur approximately half of all the times and they are the ones we are interested in analyzing.



Analysis of increase ratio between high magnitude bull markets
Bull market  Peak                   Increase ratio from previous bull market     Increase ratio of increase ratio      
#1              32                    
#4              260                     8.125          
#5              1150                   4.4231                                            0.5443786
#10            2800                   2.43                                                0.55
 
The increase ratio of the increase ratio (the second derivative) seems to be approximately one half. This means that the increase ratio of bull market #x will be approximately 0.5*((#x-2)/(#x-1)). I'd make a graph but its easy to visualize what is going on here.



Price increase factor analysis
Bull market  Start   Peak      Price increase factor    Increase ratio of price increase factor        
#1              0.8      32         40          
#4              13.5    260        19.25925926              0.4815
#5              125     1150       9.2                          0.4777
#10            600     2800      4.67                         0.51
 
The increase ratio of the start and the peak of a bull market seems to follow a pattern too.



Metrics correlated with high magnitude bull markets
Metrics correlated with successful bull markets are:

These metrics show that high magnitude bull markets correlate with increased usage of bitcoin and a sharp increase in media mentions. The downside with these metrics is that they lag behind usually, or at best follow the price.
[/quote]
12  Economy / Speculation / Re: Simple price analysis and metric correlations on: May 28, 2017, 02:40:37 PM
Bull market #10 came along with excellent timing and pretty much exactly at the same starting point ($600) as expected. If this was the high then the price increase factor also came where expected at ~4.5. The only thing that "broke" is the timing of the bubble top. This bull market has lasted more than twice as long as every previous one.

The price increase ratio is also in line with previous data and the value seems to be as expected; I expected it to come to around 2.5 and it came at 2.4.

All in all, all metrics fell in line excellently. I can't believe how easy this was to predict and how accurate it turned out to be.

I do not think this will continue to bubble up. If it crashes then we will have to wait quite a long time before we see a real bull market like this again. If it does like the April 2013 bull market then it might retain much of the recent gains and then do a back to back bull market like in December 2013.

Hope my posts have helped someone make money!
13  Economy / Trading Discussion / How to sell bitcoins on an exchange on: November 13, 2016, 11:51:27 PM
I wonder how I am supposed to sell bitcoins on an exchange. I have been considering several and have gone through the KYC/AML process for three exchanges. The problem is once I sell my coins they might ask me to prove where I got them from. Keep in mind I am not intending to withdraw the FIAT, I just want to sell high and rebuy lower, and withdraw the coins.

The problem with proving the source of my coins is, how the hell do I do it? I bought them on MtGox and they can't ask MtGox for verification. Even if they did, the coins have gone through several addresses over the years. I can't even trace it back to the MtGox purchase since they went through other exchanges (and got mixed).

So what is one supposed to do here?
14  Economy / Games and rounds / Re: 1000 BTC GIVEAWAY! From your friend rekcahxfb on: August 03, 2016, 05:23:33 PM
17sTBEadzJMy3ye5uoPg99amxsZYNw9yhm
15  Economy / Speculation / Re: Simple price analysis and metric correlations on: July 20, 2016, 12:11:34 PM
Updated first post. Bull market #9 was clocked pretty damn well. As was #8.

The even better news are that despite that these bull markets did not lead to a new ATH, they coaligned the other correlative factors. So the increase ratio between high magnitude bull markets vs price increase factor is now coaligned such that the end result is slightly above $2000 for both. We will see with time if this turns out to be true, I am betting on it though.

In the previous halving we had very similar behavior prior to the halving. Two low magnitude bull markets, one in january 2012 and one in august 2012. Both were "appreciative" as the price gains were for the most part retained. It is also very important to note that the january 2012 bull market was the turning point, marking the end of a significant bull market during mid to late 2011. This is strikingly similar to the november 2015 bubble, which marked the end of the 2014-2015 bear market (the bull markets inbetween were low magnitude, and the price did not retain the gains of them). Both the november 2015 and june 2016 bull markets have had their price appreciation retained for the most part.

So buckle up your seatbelts, we might be in for a big ride. The timing correlation is approximate; the effect of the diminished supply of new coins (which we all know, miners sell directly for fiat) on the exchanges takes time to effect the price. But we will see some action later this year.
16  Economy / Exchanges / Re: [OFFICIAL]Bitfinex.com first Bitcoin P2P lending platform for leverage trading on: July 09, 2016, 07:13:19 PM
Just a general question, I read some where some time that corporate users account for the majority of the volume on bitfinex, is this true?

Confirmed this here: http://www.cftc.gov/idc/groups/public/@lrenforcementactions/documents/legalpleading/enfbfxnaorder060216.pdf
Fourth page, top of the page.
17  Economy / Services / Re: Looking for someone who can dropship from UK to SE, will pay a little, easy job on: June 30, 2016, 06:20:21 PM
As much as you can assume I am going to do bad things to you, I can assume you will take my item and not send it to me. So I should be equally wary of you.

Regarding why I need this help, simply because the shop does not deliver to SE. In small markets there is little to choose from and now I need a dropshipper.
18  Economy / Services / Looking for someone who can dropship from UK to SE, will pay a little, easy job on: June 30, 2016, 01:30:24 PM
I am looking for someone who can dropship small packages. The shop I want to buy from is in the US and does not ship to SE. So your job is to receive the item and reship to Sweden.

Will pay upon negotiation, it will be worth your time.

PM me.
19  Economy / Economics / Re: Soo, I'm planning on buying 1000 in bitcoins. Yes or no? on: June 23, 2016, 11:16:49 PM
This is not a big investment at all. It is a very small one.

And yes you should.
20  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin price? Who is making it? on: June 16, 2016, 09:48:02 PM
I am making the price.
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