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781  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: September 12, 2014, 04:35:07 PM
To my knowledge, the last change of the SM trust we know about for sure is the large net sell (-1444 BTC) earlier this month. Everything since then is too small to allow us to conclude with certainty that it represents an actively managed change in the trust's holdings.

Please correct me if the above is wrong, jl2012.

I think everything above +/- 50XBT are real. Others are just noise.

However, if on the same day one bought 1000XBT with another one sold 1000XBT, the net change would be zero and there is no way for us to tell.
782  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: September 12, 2014, 02:13:09 AM
update
783  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin long-term exponential trend (updated regularly) on: September 11, 2014, 05:28:32 PM
I actually gotta say that seeing the latest version of the graph is rather scary! :/ It isn't unprecedented that we went this far down, yet we're now in a relative state of mainstream adoption and already tapped some of Bitcoin's potential, so I don't hope this means decision time already, and people decided against it...

It may just mean we will follow a less steep exponential trend, or even a linear trend. Obviously, the exponential trend has to be broken someday or we will be able to buy everything in the world in 10 years.
784  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin long-term exponential trend (updated regularly) on: September 11, 2014, 02:46:04 AM
785  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin long-term exponential trend (updated regularly) on: September 11, 2014, 02:44:26 AM
Date:    10-Sep-2014
VWAP:    482.21
x:    1516
a:    0.00583
b:    -1.72039
Rsq:    0.90366
The day's expected price:    1234.31
Actual price / expected price:   39.07%
Predicted date for today's price:    1-Apr-2014
Days ahead:    -161.21
Daily price rank:    244
Predicted date for ATH ($1126):    30-Aug-2014
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00583024946907869++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.72039218099432+%29   
786  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Fundamentals of a decentralized Bitcoin network on: September 10, 2014, 02:54:18 PM
This is my last reply on this topic.: If you still insist this is a workable solution, just implement yourself. I'm sure no developer here would do this.
787  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 10, 2014, 11:37:57 AM




MtGox started on 17 July 2010

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=444.0
788  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Fundamentals of a decentralized Bitcoin network on: September 10, 2014, 03:59:10 AM
@jl2012;  @andytoshi

If I have a miner at location x, and 4 different clients or miners send the miner at location x, request response requests, and then we have 4 different round trip delay time domains. From this time domains the miner x gets a timedomain pattern. If the miner switches position he gets different timedomains.

That's not publically verifiable. As jl2012 observes it is not even privately verifiable because it is trivially forgeable (and definitely attacker controllable even if the actual miner is honest).


You both are right if there are not many miners and clients. But if you have enough independent clients and miners which send out response requests through the same ports you also use for mining then we have a complete different situation. Yes a miner could slow down the ping response. But it would also effect mining. And I would implement the pattern of the pingresponses into the Blockchain. So it is difficult for an attacker to be able to fake a response pattern. He has to recreate the response pattern which was generated by a lot of clients/miners byte response of him. I hope I made it clear.
But if you feel this is not new please quote a site/forum where it was already suggested? Thank you.


Assuming your strategy works (which I seriously doubt), a monopoly miner can buy VPS all over the world and pretend to be many smaller independent miners.
789  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Fundamentals of a decentralized Bitcoin network on: September 09, 2014, 05:22:49 PM
Might I suggest you read a lot more and write a lot later on in life.

Thanks a lot for the advice - I already read a lot and want also to write a lot Wink But at one point you have to start writing Smiley But I am still reading and also want to read a lot.


It is very easy to cheat with your system: just deliberately delay the ping response.

Also, VPS are dirt cheap and a monopoly miner could easily pretend to be many small ones scattering all over the world: the ASIC hasher could be geographically unrelated to the network node

If you really have read a lot you should learn that your idea is not new and is a bad one, and you could save the time for re-writing this bad idea.

790  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: September 09, 2014, 03:52:50 AM
update. no real change since last update
791  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 07, 2014, 12:44:16 PM

I know what "fungibility" means, But note the boldfaces in my post.  That is exactly what I wrote.  The court ruled that that physical  banknote was not the victim's property any more.  But of course the 20£ (as abstract amount) that the thief stole remained the victim's property, and the government would take 20£ from the thief and return then to the victim, if they were to identify him and found that he had that much money in his possession or in his bank account.

EDIT: quote markup

Same principle applies to a bitcoin theft. A bitcoin thief, if caught, will have his property gets seized and returned to the victim.

There is just no guarantee that the police would catch a banknote thief or a bitcoin thief. However, this is a matter of the police's competency, not whether bitcoin is better or worse than banknote.
792  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 06, 2014, 09:04:37 PM
Indeed, there seems to be a fundamental dilemma there.  Satoshi solved the problem of secure trustless e-payments, but there is still no solution for the problem of recovering stolen coins without spoiling that primary goal.

This is unsolvable. Please ponder about the definition of 'stolen' in a system where property is defined by 'knowledge of a key'.
There is no way to mathematically demonstrate that a transaction, for example, was fraudulent. Or that if two people know the same key then one is a rightful owner (whatever that means) and the other is not.

Precisely!

One fundamental flaw of  cryptocoins (that supportes consider a feature) is that they are intended to eliminate the notion of "property" for money, and leave only "possession" instead.

You have "possession" of something if you physically can use it or dispose of it as you like.

The thing is your "property" if, and only if, the  government thinks you should have possession of it, and you can get his cops and courts to get it.

If a thief steals your car, it becomes his possession; but it is still your property, because the government thinks so, and is expected to take the car from him and give it back to you, by force if needed, once he is found.  If your tenant stops paying the rent and refuses to leave, the house is still your property because the government thinks so, and will help you get the guy out.    If a hacker empties you bank account, he may get possession of the money, but that money is still your property -- only because the government thinks so.  If you fail to pay taxes by the due date, you retain possession of that money, but it will be property of the government -- just because they think it is.

There is no way to define propeprty without reference to some government.  If there is no government, there is no property, only possession; and when something gets stolen from you, it becomes the thief's possession, and that is it.  YOU (and your friends) may think that it is still your property, but the thief (and his friends) will disagree; what then?  

By design, cryptocoins (as the libertarians see them) are meant to be impossible for any government (or any other entity) to take away from their possessors.  But then, by design, no government (or any other authority) can enforce any property rights on cryptocoins.  (Indeed, early adopters had hoped that the government would be unable even to discover who has possession of the coins; and now that bitcoin has been found to be inadequate in this aspect, they  are turning to more sophisticated "truly anonymous" altcoins.)  

Therefore, there is no concept of "property" in the realm of cryptocoins.  Only "possession".

The notion of "property" as distinct from "possession" is very old; it may have been invented when humans adopted agriculture and settled down, abandoning the "share the catch" economy of nomadic hunter-gatherers.  It has become such a basic feature of society that people seem to forget what makes it work.  

Do we really want to eliminate the concept of "property" with regards to money?
  
(PS. And then there is the misleading use of "possession" instead of "knowledge" when talking about keys; but that is another issue.)

All your examples: cars, houses, bank account, tax are non-anonymous. Try again with cash, gold bullion.

Satoshi made it very clear in the title of the white paper: Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System. Bitcoin is e-cash, not a e-car or e-house.
793  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 06, 2014, 08:55:54 PM
I have some sliver coins got stolen. Please teach me how I could recover them.
You go to the police and hope that they can catch the thief and get your coins back.
So just do the same in case your bitcoin is stolen.
Do you know of any case?


If they could catch DPR and seize his bitcoin I can't see why it is fundamentally impossible to catch a bitocin thief.



794  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 06, 2014, 05:54:22 PM
I have some sliver coins got stolen. Please teach me how I could recover them.
You go to the police and hope that they can catch the thief and get your coins back.
 

So just do the same in case your bitcoin is stolen.
795  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 06, 2014, 05:20:15 PM


Indeed, there seems to be a fundamental dilemma there.  Satoshi solved the problem of secure trustless e-payments, but there is still no solution for the problem of recovering stolen coins without spoiling that primary goal.

I have some sliver coins got stolen. Please teach me how I could recover them.
796  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 05, 2014, 04:58:42 AM
If you go to a bank and take out money to buy a car, then when you buy the car you find out the money is counterfeit? What do you do?

This does happen. People draw money from ATM and find out the money is counterfeit. The bank would never admit their fault and it's hardly possible for the customer to prove it.
797  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 05, 2014, 04:52:02 AM
Please, tell me an example where someone lost bitcoins from a properly secured wallet...
First you give me an example of hackers stealing credit card information from a properly secured server.

Seriously do you think Bitcoin is less secure than fiat?
Yes I do.  How do you propose to measure that?
I propose you to encrypt the fiat from your wallet: try to give a password to your $100 fiat paper, then you can try to do a brain wallet from them...
Stupid for stupid: I propose that you write a malware that can steal a 10$ bill from my pocket.

(And note the word MEASURE.)

Just for curiosity, if some day you use bitcoin to buy a car, how will you make sure that the address that you are sending the bitcoins to is indeed the car dealer's?  What will you do if the car dealer tells you that they did not receive any bitcoins, and that their payment address is not the one you used?

Do you know you can try that 'suspicious' address from your car dealer, by sending first a few shatoshis right? Just saying...

Sure.  You scan the QR code on the screen or catalog and send 1 satoshi there.

Then you check the blockchain and see that the satoshi was indeed sent to the address displayed on the screen.

You call the dealer, and Bill from Sales confirms that the satoshi was indeed deposited in their payment address.

You then send the other 999.99999999 BTC to the same address.  So you think.

You check the blockchain and find that the second transaction went to a DIFFERENT address!

You call the store, and Bill says that the second address is not theirs.   

Then what?

OR, TO KEEP THINGS SMPLE:

One day you find that all your bitcoins were stolen from all your paper wallets.

Then what?

(How could that happen? Hint: how did you create the paper wallets?)




One day you find that all your coins were stolen from all your wallets.

Then what?



I really can't image this kind of shit would come from a computer science professor. This is just a generic computer security problem, and is not specific to Bitcoin. If your computer is infected by malware, you will certainly lose money in many different ways. Your personal information will be used to borrow money. Your credit card number will be used to subscribe pron sites. Your files will be encrypted and you have to pay ransom. Your naked photos will be spread on Facebook.
798  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: September 05, 2014, 03:41:11 AM
update
799  Local / 中文 (Chinese) / Re: 3600跌到2900居然被我躲过了 on: September 04, 2014, 04:13:26 PM
你把這種賭博網站當做銀行? 跑路了不要上來哭  Roll Eyes
800  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Using OP_CAT on: September 04, 2014, 04:08:37 AM
I'm not a programmer so this may sound very stupid:
[...]
Max OP_CAT output size = 520 bytes: why risky?
I mean, is there any fundamental difference between these cases?
All the limits are risks, all complexity— practically every one of them has been implemented incorrectly by one alternative full node implementation or another (or Bitcoin core itself) at some point. They miss them completely, or count wrong for them, or respond incorrectly when they're violated.  E.g. here what happens if you OP_CAT 520 and 10 bytes? Should the verify fail? Should the result be truncated? But even that wasn't the point here.

Point here was that realizing you _needed_ a limit and where you needed it was a risk.  The reasonable and pedantically correct claim was made that OP_CAT didn't increase memory usage, that it just took two elements and replaced them with one which was just as large as the two... and yet having (unfiltered) OP_CAT in the instruction set bypasses the existing limits and allowed exponential memory usage.

None of it insurmountable, but I was answering the question as to why it's not just something super trivial.

Assuming OP_CAT is still available, we can do everything with existing OP codes:

Code:
<A><B> SIZE ROT SIZE ROT 2DUP <520> LESSTHANOREQUAL VERIFY <520> LESSTHANOREQUAL VERIFY ADD <520> LESSTHANOREQUAL VERIFY SWAP CAT


If the size of A, size of B, and the sum of size of A and B are all less than or equal to 520, it will return <AB>

Otherwise, the script fails.

So we can create an alias for this part:

Code:
SIZE ROT SIZE ROT 2DUP <520> LESSTHANOREQUAL VERIFY <520> LESSTHANOREQUAL VERIFY ADD <520> LESSTHANOREQUAL VERIFY SWAP CAT

Call it OP_LIMITCAT, and disallow the use of a bare OP_CAT.

Unless bugs are already there in the existing OP codes, or in my script, that should be fine.

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