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1701  Economy / Securities / Re: YARR Business for Sale on: July 29, 2012, 03:43:39 AM
May I ask why are you selling it?

Simple; I want the next six months of profits today, and I want a premium on the YARR name. We're the first and best insured pirate bond, and that is worth a lot. If I don't sell it, I make money. So it's okay either way. But if I can get 5k for it as-is, I'd probably sell it.
Actually, PPT was the first.

PPT is not 100% insured against a pirate default.
It all depends on how you think about it. If, in the free market, I can buy a share of PPT for .32 bitcoins, then it is 100% insured. Similarly, if, in the free market, I can buy a share of YARR for 1 bitcoin, then it is 100% insured.

Neither of these are the case. A pirate default results in a loss of investors money in both PPT and YARR.

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Nimda I know your intentions are good but I really think you need to step back and even just ask how something like YARR operates
It's quite obvious how it works. What is not obvious, is where the 250 BTC monthly comes from.
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before you start publishing the kind of "detailed" analysis you are known for.
I'm known for it already? I feel honored! It's all math and no libel. If you have a dispute with the math part, please post in my analysis thread.
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It would be better for you and for everyone else if you even just sent us an e-mail with some questions we could authoritatively answer for you.
Well I only have one question currently, "Where does the 250 BTC/month come from, given that 'not paying on sundays' only makes you 20 BTC/week?" and I would prefer it if you answer this question publicly. The rest of the information that I need is public -- market price, buyback price(s), etc
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As it stands you're not really presenting the whole truth about YARR
I hope my math is correct. The non-math aspects do not concern me. Really, it seems to me that you would be much less angry if I hadn't conducted my evaluations when the market price of YARR was 1.89 BTC.
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and it looks like a bit of a witch-hunt at times
AFAIK, you are the one who has insulted me.
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even though you do say some net-positive things like that our fair price is around 1.70.....
Well that "net-positive" thing is entirely true, and I have bought some shares for less than 1.70 BTC, which makes me very happy.
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If you don't have a question, seriously, stop being an asshole. Nobody cares whether or not you think I am a vampire or not and whether or not you want to bid -299 for YARR or whatever. Seriosuly you're making yourself look like an idiot.
I'll give you the same advice as I did the other guy: insults do not add credibility to your argument. Please ignore the trolls; use the ignore button if you have to. Hell, I won't be offended if you ignore me. I would also recommend that you use the Google Chrome web-browser, because it does automatic spell-checking for you.
1702  Economy / Speculation / Re: namecoin down! related to bitcoin prices? will it go up again? on: July 29, 2012, 03:07:46 AM
NMC has dropped in BTC terms but not in USD or CAD terms where is trading above the prices in February - March of this year.
So why is there nobody arbing? Buy NMC with BTC, Sell NMC for USD, buy BTC with USD --> profit!
Or, if you want to sell your BTC, buy NMC with it then sell that --> profit!

also:
1703  Economy / Securities / Re: YARR Business for Sale on: July 29, 2012, 02:53:27 AM


Net worth:
Assets:
3700 Bitcoins (At least 2000 of which are on deposit with Pirate to pay dividends and 2000 of which are reserved to pay default).
Goodwill: Some unknown positive number (emphasis mine)

    Oh wait, that gives you negative 300 bitcoins.....so you either don't have the coin to cover default or you haven't acknowledged the value of your insurance contract.

I bolded the relevant part. Please don't make the same mistake as people like clipse, nimda and others by assuming you know how YARR is structured. YARR is 100% backed, in fact, it's overbacked. YARR == CPA. We just created the new asset to allow people to buy bonds directly on the GLBSE.

Sorry - your company is worth less than 2000 BTC.

Please, don't apologize! It's all right --- just don't buy us. It will be okay for us. YARR makes 250 bitcoins a month as it stands, our time to cover is just seven weeks, which means by that time CPA will be making 25% a month with better risk than mining. If you don't think that is worth a small premium really, don't apologize, just don't buy.

Don't worry, there was no danger of me making an offer anywhere near what you think is fair. But I'd love to see your math on how you make 250 BTC a month holding 2000 bonds without continuously issuing new bonds.
Funny, seems you can do math too. Welcome to the club! Smiley
Quote from: me
250 bitcoins a month! How impressive! I wonder where this comes from, given that the withheld Sunday dividends comprise only 20 BTC/week. That's 2.85714 daily, or a maximum of 88.57142857 BTC in a 31 day month.
There is the off-chance of 5 Sundays in a month. That's a lucky 100 BTC gain month, but it's not the norm, hence why I averaged it out to 88.57 BTC. Perhaps I shouldn't have used the word "maximum," since the true maximum is 100 BTC, but it shouldn't matter, because 100 is less than 250 and always will be.
Quote from: waltmarkers
Because anyone can issue new bonds and claim that they are insured by personal guarantee.
usagi has a bit more rep than that.
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Why buy your company, why not just compete with an asset called PLANK?
I'd advise you to stay away from rhetorical questions like these. Insults go nowhere and don't add any validity to your otherwise logical argument.
1704  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] [YARR] Share Offer @ 2pm UTC August 1st. on: July 29, 2012, 02:48:43 AM
Actually, it's not "fully" insured (it being your investment)
Say you buy one for 2 BTC. If pirate defaults, you only get 1 BTC back. That's 50% insurance on 3% WPR. Still not a good idea if you think pirate will default in less than 17 weeks.

this is precisely how I've evaluated YARR. It is in fact, a partially insured bond. The typical trading price makes the insurance considerably less valuable, and(or) the premium exceptionally high.

the current offer to sell all of YARR to the highest bidder
A. calls into question the true value of the insurance provided
B. the solidity of any investment in YARR until such time as the asset is transferred to the eventual purchaser.

I would personally be interested in YARR at 1.1-1.2.

Hopefully your sale of the YARR business will go quickly.

Actually, it's not "fully" insured (it being your investment)
Say you buy one for 2 BTC. If pirate defaults, you only get 1 BTC back. That's 50% insurance on 3% WPR. Still not a good idea if you think pirate will default in less than 17 weeks.
Yeah, there's no advantage to this over just depositing 1BTC with pirate and getting 7% WPR. If Pirate defaults you lose the 1 BTC either way, except you can invest the other 1 BTC in something else.

This (along with Nimda, Obsi, and Psy's statements among others) are great examples of why if you don't know how to manage your money, for god's sake give it to a competent money manager.

If you did what you said and invested 1 bitcoin in pirate and 0.9 in say mining, your total interest rate would be about 4.3% The problem is that YARR pays a comparable interest rate at just 1.4 bitcoins. So investing in YARR at or around the average sale price is a better investment than what you have proposed.

In 3 days there will be 1,000 new backing for YARR and I will sell up to 1500 new shares around 1.40-1.50. This has been announced for about a week now. I really don't know why people like you and Nimda keep spreading FUD about 1.90, volume at that level is what, 100, compared to maybe 3,000 under 1.40.
Whoa whoa! Now you're accusing me of FUD? FUD != Math. Let's look at that bold part. It is correct. However, at the time of my calculations, the market price of YARR was 1.9 Bitcoins. Therefore, an assessment based on 1.4 Bitcoins was absolutely useless. You couldn't get YARR for 1.4 Bitcoins.

Now for the blue part (color mine). I was "spreading FUD" about 1.9 because that was the price. You couldn't get a share of YARR for less than 1.9 Bitcoins.


(Subject to investor's evaluation of pirate's default risk -- as risk of him defaulting in the next month approaches ~90%, staying totally away from him becomes the only option.)


In 3 days there will be 1,000 new backing for YARR and I will sell up to 1500 new shares around 1.40-1.50. This has been announced for about a week now. I really don't know why people like you and Nimda keep spreading FUD about 1.90, volume at that level is what, 100, compared to maybe 3,000 under 1.40.

Actually - you said people were buying it for 1.9. How is that FUD? 
^Pretty much this. At this point, you are spreading lies about me. The fact is that people did pay up to 1.89 BTC for YARR. Another mathematical fact is that they weren't getting the best possible return on their risk. Now that the price is sub 1.7, YARR is again viable. Flaming me for using the market price is useless and outright libel.
usagi has stated that YARR holds 3700 BTC in assets. Therefore, it's unreasonable to think that he would force the 1.3 BTC buyback: that would mean a loss of 1110 BTC. At least in this case, the invisible hand -- everyone doing what's best for them -- means the best for everyone.


I think we misunderstand each other. I was trying to say that a prospective buyer would have the option to exercise the buyback @ 1.3 BTC, not usagi. I also do not understand your math. I see that there were 2000 shares of YARR that received a dividend today. To buy back, it would be 1.3 * 2000 = 2600 BTC leaving 1100 BTC for profit.
This is true. However, the prospective buyer would pay at least 5000 BTC, so the profit would be negative.
1705  Economy / Securities / Re: YARR Business for Sale on: July 29, 2012, 02:35:55 AM
May I ask why are you selling it?

Simple; I want the next six months of profits today, and I want a premium on the YARR name. We're the first and best insured pirate bond, and that is worth a lot. If I don't sell it, I make money. So it's okay either way. But if I can get 5k for it as-is, I'd probably sell it.
Actually, PPT was the first.

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That makes zero sense, you sell companies for the net worth. Your net worth is you assets minus your liabilities. Your assets are all of your deposits with pirate, plus your other bitcoins held by yarr, plus goodwill. Your liabilities are the sum of the face value of the shares of YARR.

It makes perfect sense, although you would probably have to have your own issue or a lot of experience running a business to understand. I've already answered this (technically) in a previous post but it bears repeating: If I sell for less than asset value a scammer can walk in and liquidate YARR. I wouldn't be responsible for his actions by that time. With this knowledge I cannot sell for less than asset value or I myself could be accused of scamming. I must sell for greater than asset value to ensure the buyer has a stake in running things properly. This is also why I offered 30 days full training, management assistance, etc.
Unfortunately, this means the buyer suffers a loss

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Net worth:
Assets:
3700 Bitcoins (At least 2000 of which are on deposit with Pirate to pay dividends and 2000 of which are reserved to pay default).
Goodwill: Some unknown positive number (emphasis mine)

    Oh wait, that gives you negative 300 bitcoins.....so you either don't have the coin to cover default or you haven't acknowledged the value of your insurance contract.

I bolded the relevant part. Please don't make the same mistake as people like clipse, nimda and others by assuming you know how YARR is structured. YARR is 100% backed, in fact, it's overbacked. YARR == CPA. We just created the new asset to allow people to buy bonds directly on the GLBSE.
It may be overbacked right now, but when you sell it, it will not be. The receiver will get 3700 coins of assets, 2000 of which are exposed to a pirate default. Unless you want to change the terms of the sale.

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Sorry - your company is worth less than 2000 BTC.

Please, don't apologize! It's all right --- just don't buy us. It will be okay for us. YARR makes 250 bitcoins a month as it stands, our time to cover is just seven weeks, which means by that time CPA will be making 25% a month with better risk than mining. If you don't think that is worth a small premium really, don't apologize, just don't buy.
250 bitcoins a month! How impressive! I wonder where this comes from, given that the withheld Sunday dividends comprise only 20 BTC/week. That's 2.85714 daily, or a maximum of 88.57142857 BTC in a 31 day month.

I will watch this thread, because I have a bridge to sell.
1706  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: How much do you think I can get? on: July 29, 2012, 01:57:51 AM
Sans monitor, sans warranty, $50 max
1707  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] [YARR] Share Offer @ 2pm UTC August 1st. on: July 29, 2012, 01:36:05 AM
Actually, it's not "fully" insured (it being your investment)
Say you buy one for 2 BTC. If pirate defaults, you only get 1 BTC back. That's 50% insurance on 3% WPR. Still not a good idea if you think pirate will default in less than 17 weeks.

this is precisely how I've evaluated YARR. It is in fact, a partially insured bond. The typical trading price makes the insurance considerably less valuable, and(or) the premium exceptionally high.

the current offer to sell all of YARR to the highest bidder
A. calls into question the true value of the insurance provided
B. the solidity of any investment in YARR until such time as the asset is transferred to the eventual purchaser.

I would personally be interested in YARR at 1.1-1.2.

Hopefully your sale of the YARR business will go quickly.

I tend to agree with you. It seems that, until this sale has been completed and we know and trust the buyer, the actual value of the bond can be no more than the buyback amount of 1.3 BTC.

Disclaimer: I currently hold YARR
usagi has stated that YARR holds 3700 BTC in assets. Therefore, it's unreasonable to think that he would force the 1.3 BTC buyback: that would mean a loss of 1110 BTC. At least in this case, the invisible hand -- everyone doing what's best for them -- means the best for everyone.
1708  Economy / Securities / Re: YARR Business for Sale on: July 29, 2012, 01:23:31 AM
Lol no, it's only correct from a wacky point of view Tongue
Unfortunately, as stated here the business model is tricky. If all of the shares were sold at 1.4, and 2000 of them were sold total, then that's 2800 coins gained from the IPO. However, 2000 of these coins are with pirate. If pirate defaults right now, the 1 BTC insurance will be returned in the form of a full forced buyback which will cost 2000 BTC. Remember only 800 coins were gained from the IPO and not put with pirate. Therefore, the other 1200 must come from not paying out on Sundays (20 coins / week). That's 60 weeks to a breakeven.

Given these numbers, if pirate defaults in the next year, YARR will have been a loss for the operator.

If 2000 of usagi's stated 3700 are with pirate, then he already has 1700 to back the shares. That's only 300 left to break-even, so at 20 / week:

Given those numbers, if pirate does not default in the next 15 weeks ( < 4 months ), YARR will have been a profit for the operator

The number you really want, though, is profit for the buyer of YARR. Taking the more accurate last guess, and adding it to the 1300 premium, that's 1600 in the red. Divide by 20:
Given this last pair of numbers, if you buy YARR for 5000 coins, you will break even 80 weeks from now

There is another option, contract C-4. That part enables you to do a force-buyback @ 1.3 at any time. If it were possible, I'd buy YARR for -1111 BTC and force a buyback. This would gain me 1 BTC profit Cheesy
As that negative number shows, the forced buyback isn't even economically feasible for CPA at this time, because 1.3 * 2000 is 4810, and 3700 < 4810.

This shows that usagi's point earlier that he is basically donating coins is correct. It also tells me why some investors wanted to buy "all the shares." Although, there are some cases (early default) where only pirate would win.
1709  Economy / Securities / Re: A mathematical risk/reward analysis of insured Pirate deposits on: July 29, 2012, 01:04:03 AM
Just an update:
The price of YARR has dipped to 1.55 thanks to either someone who wanted out or someone who was taking profits.
I don't think I need to go through the math again; you can verify for yourself that this is the best publicly available deal in all of Bitcoin.

When doing math, I often like to take extremes. For example, when dealing with concentric circles, it's often useful to reduce the inner one to a point. Here's a few things to ponder:
-The system even works for calculations when you give everything to pirate. In that case, you value your money's time at 7% weekly, and you think pirate has a 0% chance of defaulting.
-Flip that and say you think pirate has a 100% chance of defaulting right NOW! (wait for it...)
In that case you shouldn't put any of your money in any pass-through.

Hmm... maybe we should do some calculations with defaulting chance. It comes with a few problems -- investors often have a hard time putting a percentage on risk, and the chance is often a curve: 1% chance of defaulting today, 10% by next week... so on until 95% within 2 years etc

Also: to PPT-PR et all: I think this thread focuses a lot on YARR. This is simply because the market rate of YARR varies, and PPT-X has a simple solution: "buy at 1.07 or less to win."
Also, since the insured amount is smaller (0.32), the time value lost is just 0.0128. One could get this amount through faucets in a month.
1710  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] [YARR] Share Offer @ 2pm UTC August 1st. on: July 29, 2012, 12:29:12 AM

I have done a bit of work on this. It turns out that a share of YARR for any less than 1.725 BTC is the best deal anywhere, short of investing thousands of coins directly with pirate and putting thousands more in cold storage. The thread also looks at PPT.X bonds because they are also partially insured.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=96092

The flip-side is that the current prices are too high; you can get the same risk and a better return by investing sans-insurance.
1711  Economy / Long-term offers / Re: Starfish BCB - Loans and Deposits (deposit rate 1.0%/week from 1 August) on: July 29, 2012, 12:22:59 AM
This is a BTW post.  While deposit rates are going to drop to 1%/wk, to align with the weekly interest payment cycle it will not actually occur until Friday 3rd.
Will the rates drop on 1 August for compounding accounts?
1712  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: [Now Funded] Help build a better Bitcoin logo! on: July 29, 2012, 12:16:28 AM
oh right, my bad. Roll Eyes
OK now I am very very confused Shocked
This is coming into play: http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/07/jobs/07pre.html?_r=1

Haha, I think so. No intended negativity on this side.
Now back on topic! Angry
OK! Angry Sad

Can I get a version like the one in my avatar, but with ?
1713  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: [Now Funded] Help build a better Bitcoin logo! on: July 28, 2012, 08:40:13 PM
oh right, my bad. Roll Eyes
OK now I am very very confused Shocked
This is coming into play: http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/07/jobs/07pre.html?_r=1
1714  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: [Now Funded] Help build a better Bitcoin logo! on: July 28, 2012, 08:33:18 PM

haha.
Sorry nimda if it sounds like a criticism, it wasn't meant to. Me likey.
Hmm... apparently I need a more sarcastic looking  Shocked button... like a combination of  Tongue Shocked and  Wink
;o)P
1715  Economy / Long-term offers / Re: -= RUSTY's DEPOSITS - Paying 3.0% Weekly Interest =- on: July 28, 2012, 08:19:59 PM
Then I wish you good luck, and I highly advise you to visit this thread:

Who Pays What?

Read it over, send PatrickHarnett your details, and you'll be added to "New Deposit Takers." This is great for advertising. Then, send PatrickHarnett the data he needs for the Credit Rating. If you can get a good credit rating from him, I'll deposit with you, because I trust him a lot.
1716  Economy / Lending / Re: Selling Bitcoinica's debt. 35 btc loan. on: July 28, 2012, 08:17:47 PM
new terms:
25 btc loan.
75% garenteed payback by christmas(18,75 btc).
full 40 btc repayment when/if bitcoinica pays me back.


the math are:
chance*(debt-loan)+(1-chance)*(-loan+payback*loan)

so on a 30% chance that bitcoinica will payback, lender wins.

Fair?
if by "payback" you mean "guaranteed fraction" then the math is correct. However I'm not sure I'd agree that the lender wins. Christmas is a long time away, and you have to take the time value of money into account. Here in the BTC Wild Wild West, 1% weekly is very common. This significantly devalues the "Christmas" part.
its not a 15btc back guarantee, its a 50% back guarantee.
OIC
1717  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: [Now Funded] Help build a better Bitcoin logo! on: July 28, 2012, 08:07:46 PM


DO I LOOK LIKE A SHOPPING CENTER? Shocked
1718  Economy / Lending / Re: Selling Bitcoinica's debt. 35 btc loan. on: July 28, 2012, 08:04:45 PM
yes but the 50% back doubles that, so 32btc, if you thrust me 100% that im keeping my word.

You got your math wrong Smiley If there is a 40% chance that the 40 BTC are sent back, and a 60% chance that they are not (meaning the lender will receive only 15 BTC), then the expected value is 40*0.4+15*0.6=25. So it would be a bad operation to give you 30 BTC for this.

If P is the probability of Bitcoinica money being paid back (between 0, default, and 1, certainty), then people should buy this option for no more than 80*P/(P+1). So, if lenders think that there is a 40% chance that Bitcoinica pays back, they should not pay more than 22.85714286 BTC in any case. And even that would mean a 0% loan for many months in the "mean" case.

With a 10% chance of payback, the maximum that a lender should lend is 7,27272727 BTC.
We came to the same conclusions, just phrased differently (e.g. I said "lose 5" you said "EV of 25"), except for that last bit. The maximum the lender should lend is 17.5 BTC. You forgot the 15 BTC guarantee.
.1 * 40 + .9 * 15 = 17.5
Obviously, the lender is also losing time value and is the one running the risks. The factor of most importance, in any case, is how much the lender trusts kokjo and Bitcoinica to keep their words.
1719  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: deepbit.net bitcoin mining status page generator :: AutoIt and Dropbox on: July 28, 2012, 07:59:49 PM
Thank you for reminding me why I use AutoHotkey.
I haven't tried AHK scripting before, Does AutoHotkey have a way of parsing JSON output?
There are multiple open-source libraries for AHK_L which parse JSON, including LSON. If you ever try AHK, make sure you download AutoHotkey_L, because it has tons of features the old AHK doesn't.
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you apparently can't assign text from an online file to a variable directly.  At least I couldn't figure it out.
In AutoHotkey_L, one would use a one line HTTPRequest through COM; I don't know how easy COM is in AU3.
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I made a PHP-only version that's much cleaner, simpler and faster.  I'll release that one also once I get it modified where you can just edit some variables.
Who doesn't love PHP?
1720  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Don't buy bitcoins. Use carrots instead! on: July 28, 2012, 07:53:13 PM
Guys, I wasn't an early adopter, and carrot transaction times are way too big. Plus, all the people mining with Great Produce Units are unfair to the small-town roadside carrot stand Shocked

Introducing... BabyCarrot! A new, smaller, more 'lite' carrot with fast transaction times! It takes about 166 baby carrots to make one Carrot.
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