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2382
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: January 04, 2017, 11:44:51 PM
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I think we need to reevaluate volume so we can accurately understand the power of these exchanges..
Something like.. Total bought ratio to total sold and the volume of that difference/gap would be actual money coming into and out of the market on that exchange vs total buy/sell vol..
With no fees you can buy and sell your own coins all day long but you can't really buy more than you sold or sell more than you bought unless your actually putting a steak out there, or area good trader and wind up with more of everythng..
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2383
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: January 04, 2017, 11:33:59 PM
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stamp shows who is da boss, if they dont wanna move, they dont move.
pretty sure the chinese exchanges are the bosses tbh. its actual a very interesting situation at the moment. lets see who will win, either stamp rising or china coming back. How much BTC would one have to send to stamp in order to margin buy out that 280 BTC wall? |
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2387
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: January 04, 2017, 09:32:13 PM
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There's no correction happening at Huobi.
yeah and it sucks.. I sold my long at 8424 and it hasn't come down for me to buy back in like the other exchanges have.. Still holding all my profits in BTC but no leverage, BTC trading stake currently up 60%.. So not only has BTC gone up like 40% but I have made 60% more BTC at the same time.. I only wish I had the balls to trade with more capitol, more of my stash.. I'm afraid that if I do trade with more that it would effect me psychologically and I would be less successful.. |
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2389
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: January 04, 2017, 09:02:57 PM
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any other UKers here holding their breath for ~$1230 when we finally hit £1000? that is gonna be when my head explodes.
Yep - one here Spooder. That would be fantastic. The crazy thing is, I've tried to explain bitcoin to quite a few people over the last few years. Some have nodded approvingly - but most have been sceptical. But none that I know of have acquired any BTC. I'm watching this rise on my own (so to speak) The one I'm waiting for is $1163 on stamp. And I'm starting to think I might see it before 23:59 GMT. I have spent so much time watching the price over the festive period its embarassing. Where do you guys buy/sell BTC, by the way? I get paid monthly in bitcoin and since Circle shut down BTC sells I have to resort to Coinfloor. It's not bad but still a hassle and you get spanked on withdrawals, of course. I'd check out wallofcoins |
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2396
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: January 03, 2017, 01:15:49 AM
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Winning
Windows 10, definitely losing. Trading on 10 doesn't seem to be any different than my 7 partition... Or do you think trading from a bare bones linux would improve my performance? 10 and 6 charts = my computer doesn't even run it's fan.. cpu 10% but I right click it and tell it to run on my gpu and its super.. Didn't know polo could be that smooth.. Can run like 5 polos at the same time better than my a10 with integrated gpu could dream of running 1 polo.. Is their an optimal OS and browser setup for realtime charts and books? It's not about opsec.. |
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2399
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: January 02, 2017, 11:49:08 PM
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If you assume price = constant + superimposed sinusoidal curve, with the amplitude of the curve big enough to trigger buying and selling, then by your method, you repeatedly buy low, sell high, over and over again. Which means you make money, assuming the spread and transaction costs are less than what you earn from buying low and selling high.
Any curve can be represented as a sum of sinusoidal curves, i.e. a Fourier series. Therefore, it becomes mathematically provable that your method, if properly implemented, will cause you to benefit from volatility.
I'd like to see that proof  A couple of problems I see with it: 1) you are talking about piecewise sinusoids (right? reset at each sudden price change?). That complicates any kind of frequency domain analysis. Lots of noise. 2) After a price change, how do you determine what phase (and amplitude) to start the next piece at? If you really did mean fourier analysis of the whole price data, then you would see low frequency cycles with a bit of luck (but too many people already found those, so they're tiny). The sudden price moves add way too much noise to be able to detect anything sinusoidal at day trader frequencies. I think that I understand that your criticism may encapsulate that humans are way too inconsistent in order to make such a system work mathematically as profitable - however, couldn't you program a bot to take out some of the human error and instead of having it set at really close intervals (like they probably do in china with no fees), they set them at intervals like $10 - or maybe more accurately to use percentage moves, like a .5 or 1% move in one direction triggers a sell, and then every equal increment. Then buy backs would be 1% or more below the sales price. Of course, there are variations about what increments to use and what quantities. Percentages would definitely be the way to go, and the optimal percentages would depend on how wide you expect the price fluctuations to be. For example: if you expect LOTS and LOTS of +/- 10% fluctuations, then you're better off buying at the -10% and selling at the +10%. Suppose you model lots of +/- 3% fluctuations with very infrequent +/- 50% fluctuations ... in that case your idealized bot would probably have a pretty complex behavior. Deriving what exactly the ideal bot should do would be a very interesting exercise. If I were to program a high frequency bot I would program it to use the data of the books/depth and not the charts.. Chart shows the past, maybe can predict longer term trends up to a few hours.. Books show the future.. |
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2400
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: January 02, 2017, 11:40:37 PM
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If you assume price = constant + superimposed sinusoidal curve, with the amplitude of the curve big enough to trigger buying and selling, then by your method, you repeatedly buy low, sell high, over and over again. Which means you make money, assuming the spread and transaction costs are less than what you earn from buying low and selling high.
Any curve can be represented as a sum of sinusoidal curves, i.e. a Fourier series. Therefore, it becomes mathematically provable that your method, if properly implemented, will cause you to benefit from volatility.
I'd like to see that proof A couple of problems I see with it: 1) you are talking about piecewise sinusoids (right? reset at each sudden price change?). That complicates any kind of frequency domain analysis. Lots of noise. 2) After a price change, how do you determine what phase (and amplitude) to start the next piece at? If you really did mean fourier analysis of the whole price data, then you would see low frequency cycles with a bit of luck (but too many people already found those, so they're tiny). The sudden price moves add way too much noise to be able to detect anything sinusoidal at day trader frequencies. I trade much higher frequency and thrive on the volatility.. I'd say usually 20-100 trades per active trading hour.. I determine where to start the next position 90% based on what is happening in the books.. The books are constantly changing, so I need to get into the rythem of the certin exchange, stare at the books for 10 minutes or so to get a feel for the waves, enter positions when you see the waves in the books coming to push the price buoy back and forth.. I have found on huobi and ok that their are a lot of book "setups" where they try to make you think one thing and then they do the exact opposite.. Like they will put up a sellwall and buy into it themselves right before they dump, you think it's going through the wall and then WHAM they slam it when everyone is buying.. I flip tons of small price movements and try to stay away from longer term "swing" style trading unless the pattern is painfully obvious.. Like last night I went to sleep at abot 4X margin long and was happy this morning.. Made another 10% today in my morning routine trading for the first couple hours when I wake up.. I wake up staring at the books until I see something I have to have and then it's on.. Also, when I say profits I mean increasing my BTC stash, I could give a crap how much of an alt or fiat I can make but rather just focus on making more BTC.. |
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