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1  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis on: January 30, 2018, 03:24:54 PM
Isn't it going to (e) right now? Why does it need to hit (d) first? Can it go directly to (e) without (d)? The little blip up after (c), could that be the (d), in which case we are on the way to (e)?
2  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis on: December 26, 2017, 03:22:02 AM
Ever since the CME opened, we have seen negative days -- every day -- except a day on which the CME was not open (Saturday the 23rd).

The CME resumes trading in 30 minutes. I suspect we will see another negative day.

Correlation is not causation.

Then what are you doing on the Speculation forum?

There is the idea that futures might reduce demand. The price action is consistent with that. Let's wait and see.
3  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis on: December 25, 2017, 02:31:33 AM
From 3.5 to 20, the 618 fib level is 13.7, which we are breaching now. The 382 fib level is 9.8.

The buyer support @ 10 has not been tested. It's likely that's where we're headed. Once it bounces off of 10, we'll see.

I thought that we were talking about 61.8% retrace of a drop, hence 19700-11159 (on tradeview)=8541 points
multiply by 0.618=5278

11159+5278=16,437, which would be a 61.8% retrace of the drop.
I don't think anybody else is talking about the move from $175 or 1k or 3.5K.

Some people use a different low, i just use the tradeview's one.

You are assuming the drop from the ~20 high has completed. I am talking about the scenario of what happens if it's not, based on masterluc saying that one possibility is retesting 10.

Figuring out where the low is is the most confusing part. Masterluc puts it at 3.5 .
4  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis on: December 25, 2017, 01:57:00 AM
From 3.5 to 20, the 618 fib level is 13.7, which we are breaching now. The 382 fib level is 9.8.

The buyer support @ 10 has not been tested. It's likely that's where we're headed. Once it bounces off of 10, we'll see.
5  Economy / Speculation / Fib linear or log? on: December 21, 2017, 08:21:33 PM
Do you look at fib retracements on the linear or log scale? Why?
6  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis on: December 21, 2017, 04:31:22 PM

How do you calculate the fib levels?
Please don't think I'm saying this to be harsh or criticize you negatively, but you can google that question, read up a little, and you'll be much more able to contribute to this discussion.
I think we should devote our time to exegesis of the master's pronouncements rather than engaging in a tutorial session.

I am just asking about the price level at which you set the 0% for figuring the fib retracement. In the master's chart, he sets 3.5 as a critical price level. Using that, the fib retracements are 13.5 (62%), 11.6 (50%), and 9.7 (38%). How do you get 15.7?
7  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis on: December 21, 2017, 02:43:51 PM

The correction already reached its first objective which is $15,700 which is just a Fibonacci level same as the recent top.    Any fright between those two prices is just the audience

How do you calculate the fib levels? OK, so the top is ~20k. How do you figure the bottom, to get the fib retracement to be 15.7?
8  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis on: December 21, 2017, 01:52:58 AM
masterluc's latest message:
Пардоньте что не писал. Короче сработал мой проприетарный прима индикатор. Нас ждёт таки коррекция.

Да вот я такой оптимист в пессимистичном обществе и пессимист в оптимистичном.

Мой проприетарный индикатор - межпозвоночная грыжа. Перед крутой коррекцией воспаляется так, что двигаться не могу. ТА отдыхает.

Эх, старость не радость. Кхе-кхе. Старая бабка стала ребятки.

Уй блат. Где мой диклофенак....

Any heroic soul care to translate?

Where does he post his messages?
9  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis on: December 20, 2017, 04:54:53 PM
Where is the correction going to? 13k? 11k? 9.4k?

15 800

What really? How is this a correction then? Please explain.
10  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis on: December 20, 2017, 04:49:19 PM
Where is the correction going to? 13k? 11k? 9.4k?
11  Economy / Speculation / Re: Calling top at $16500 on: December 19, 2017, 02:41:40 PM
Looks to me like the most recent Tether injection has not resulted in the uptrend resuming with the same strength it was... i've trimmed my BTC exposure. Good luck to all remaining longs! ;P

(more fool me if it suddenly blasts through 20k though hehe!)

I am feeling so woozy, I am about to vomit. What is going on with the price? Help.
12  Economy / Speculation / Alt / Fiat at BTC / Fiat top on: December 17, 2017, 11:24:04 PM
The Alts have made tremendous gains vs Fiat. When BTC / Fiat is at its peak, don't the Alt / Fiat have to collapse? People will be selling Alts to buy BTC. Right?
13  Economy / Speculation / New ATH or not? on: December 15, 2017, 07:00:13 PM
Bitstamp is making a new ATH, but Coinbase isn't.

How do you interpret this?
14  Economy / Speculation / Price ratio between exchanges on: December 15, 2017, 06:56:47 PM
The prices on different exchanges are at times different, sometimes by 5% or even more. A couple of days ago, Polo was a lot lower than Bitfinex.

How do you interpret these deviations?
15  Economy / Speculation / Futures volume on: December 14, 2017, 07:40:50 PM
The futures volume is 1,600 per day. By comparison, Bitfinex is 50,000+ per day. Plus add in all the other exchanges.

Futures is a huge opportunity for traders to come in who don't want to deal with the complexities and the risk of handling actual coins. Or for institutional traders, who can't deal with it.

You would think the futures volume would be a lot higher. But it's not.

16  Economy / Speculation / New paradigm! on: December 14, 2017, 06:01:56 PM
Tell us what you think and why.
17  Economy / Speculation / Re: Calling top at $16500 on: December 14, 2017, 05:47:41 PM
I am loving all the unironic "new paradigm" posts on this thread.
18  Economy / Speculation / Re: Calling top at $16500 on: December 14, 2017, 05:45:08 PM
It sidelined.

There happened a double top, but the demand is so high that it sidelined instead of falling. That's why bitcoin is challenging TA, because of demand which is much higher than any stock. The demand will make it hard to short.

Now theres CME by 18th December, maybe we will have more money flowing in, and the price will go to 20k.

Yes thats what is freaking me out, it doesn't make any sense. A parabolic run up like this has *always* ended with a significant correction in the past, followed by a longer retrace and then a new bottom higher than the previous ATH, to springboard off.

The fact its just raced up to here and is now going sideways is what led me to speculate that somebody else with big pockets saw the top was in and is now holding the price here, accumulating, ready to do something. What? I don't know.

All of the continued cheerleading and we'll be at $20k soon, makes me feel uneasy.

It's happened before. Look at 2013. We were sitting at $1k for 8 straight days. Today is day 4 of $16k. Or day 8 of ~$15k. I don't think this is unprecedented.
19  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Futures - December 10. Will it Rise or Fall? on: December 08, 2017, 05:28:17 PM
The futures will trade FIVE days per week. Whose genius idea was that? Get ready for wild price swings on the weekends!
20  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bearish side of futures. (not shorting) on: December 08, 2017, 03:24:23 PM
Since learning about how the btc futures work, I am less bullish on the matter. They are cash settled meaning they are just bets and arent every settled against real bitcoins. Each owner has a brokerage account that is restricted to them that holds their bets. At the end of the trades the exchange uses bitcoin's price on real exchanges as an imaginary reference rate to settle the bets. Its like betting on horses. Those with losing bets pay those with winning bets - but never are real bitcoins actually touched - no clearinghouse is ever going to buy from bitstamp, etc. in relation to futures. I cant think of a way to arbitrage either, since futures cant be transferred away from their owner.

Futures are a trick and are not actually increasing the public's exposure to bitcoin at all.

Here is the potentially bearish take:

What is the limit on the futures? It has nothing to do with the amount of real bitcoins, since there is no settlement with real bitcoins. There could be billions of these futures. So essentially we have a limitless number of worthless imaginary coins being dumped to all wannabe bitcoin investors instead of them buying real bitcoins. Futures are keeping traders who were interested in buying real bitcoins on real exchanges, instead buying imaginary bitcoins on imaginary exchanges where they support the banks. It is effectively keeping them OUT of the bitcoin ecosystem right where the banks want them. Meanwhile our market cap of real bitcoins is not increasing at all. In fact we might even be having some of our traders SELLING and LEAVING so that they can trade on more reliable futures exchanges.

YES. I am thinking the same thing.

Question: Does money rush into the futures as soon as they start trading (Sunday night!) and bitcoin itself drops?

We are about to crash, I just figured we might have a little more time.
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