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Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: How do miners affect the price of Bitcoin?
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on: Today at 08:56:35 AM
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What do you mean by "selling pressure"? Don't you mean supply? Also, bitcoins are not consumed. Bitcoins sold by miners yesterday are still available to sell today, so the supply is always increasing regardless of who owns it.
What I specifically meant by lower selling pressure: Miners' rewards per block are halved, hence fewer mined bitcoins could be dumped into the markets by the miners. Because some(or most?) miners needs to sell their coins to pay for electricity and stuff. Not sure which parts of my statements looked like I was saying that bitcoins are being consumed. I think we're misunderstanding each other here lol. I'll try to make my point clear. Miner selling pressure today is still selling pressure tomorrow (but not by miners) because bitcoins sold by miners today are available to sell by someone else tomorrow. So, in other words, the total selling pressure is always increasing. The halving may reduce the selling pressure by miners but it does nothing to reduce the continuously increasing total selling pressure. I hope that was clear and to the point. Now, in the end, if you want to say the the halving causes the price to rise, you must also include a caveat that you assume that demand is always increasing faster than the supply. The problem with that assumption is that it isn't. In fact, since the supply is predetermined, it is really the demand that affects the price, and not so much the supply. I apologize for the pain felt by the economics purists caused by my conflation of supply with aggregate supply and money supply, and demand with aggregate demand. |
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2
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Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: How do miners affect the price of Bitcoin?
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on: Today at 07:25:51 AM
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a lot of people are assuming that the mining difficulty approximately a month and a half from now is going to pump bitcoin's price because the selling pressure from miners is going to be cut in half because the bitcoin that's going to be "minted" is going to be halved(hence why it's called the "halving").
That is a very common misconception. The supply of bitcoins continues to increase toward 21 million despite the halving. I mean, I never said that the supply isn't going to increase. I just said that the rewards are going to be cut in half hence potentially half the selling pressure from miners. Not sure which part of what I said you're referring to specifically? What do you mean by "selling pressure"? Don't you mean supply? Also, bitcoins are not consumed. Bitcoins sold by miners yesterday are still available to sell today, so the supply is always increasing regardless of who owns it. |
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3
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Other / Serious discussion / Re: Money printing chance vs ethics !
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on: Today at 03:20:23 AM
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How much is enough? You already got $10. It's time to tell them.
Perhaps somebody else has also discovered it and is in the process of running their business into the ground right now. You could stop that and be a hero.
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4
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Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Coin Address Generator
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on: Today at 03:00:15 AM
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The maximum number with base 6 using 100 digits is 5.642 times more than the maximum number of Bitcoin private keys.
6^100 / 115792089237316195423570985008687907765725278347314657735981263638985499361600
= 5.642
I understand you are using the modulus to wrap around as you say, “like a clock”. But if I understand correctly this then means that the last 6th time you start to go around the clock, you only get 0.642 (or 64.2%) of the way to the end and then must stop. Is that correct ? I think yes since you only have 6^100 digits.
If yes, then the probability of getting a private key in the first 64.2% of the maximum number of Bitcoin private keys is greater than the probability of getting a key in the remaining 35.8% of the keys. That probability is (6/5), or 20% higher.
So in summary, by using Base 6, 99 digits we remove about 6% of the private keys from the random selection space. But each key in that space has an equal probability.
By using Base 6, 100 digits as you do, we maintain all possible private keys in the space for selection. But we have a 20% higher probability that the private key will be in the first 64.2% of all possible private keys.
You bring up an interesting point and here is my analysis. You may be surprised. 99 dice methodSince the results are evenly distributed from 0 to 6 99-1, the probability of a collision in that range is 1/6 99. Note that there is no point to testing outside that range. 100 dice methodAs you noted, the distribution is not uniform with numbers in one section of the range having a higher rate of occurrence than the other section. Lets analyze each section separately. The probability of collision in the first section is 6/6 100, or 1/6 99, which is equivalent to the 99 dice method. The probability of collision in the second section is 5/6 100, or 5/ 6 * 1/6 99, which is less than the 99 dice method. ResultsThe probability of a collision in the 100 dice method is equal to the 99 dice method in the worst case, but it is less overall. |
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5
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Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin and Climate Change
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on: Today at 02:23:55 AM
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I think it is important to acknowledge this up front: Electricity usage does not cause climate change.
Focusing on electricity usage is not an effective way to minimize or mitigate climate change. Climate change is primarily caused by the release of CO2 and methane into the atmosphere. Certain types of electricity generation are major producers of CO2, so the effort should focus on these types of generation. Reducing or eliminating them will have a direct effect on climate change, regardless of how the electricity is used.
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8
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Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: How do miners affect the price of Bitcoin?
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on: Today at 01:26:28 AM
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Saying never? I would like that this can be true, but, it always can be a 1% of chance for the opposite scenario
i can only think fo two ways it might be possible for mining to unprofitable for everyone: - The price drops enough to cause the difficulty to drop to 1. If the price is low enough such that even mining with a difficulty of 1 is not profitable, then nobody can mine profitably (in general). Note that this was the case when Bitcoin first started.
- There is enough unprofitable hash power (for whatever reason) that the difficulty is high enough to make it unprofitable of the rest of the miners. Note that this is one way for someone with a lot of money to take over Bitcoin -- cause enough miners to drop out that your share rises to 51%
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9
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Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: How do miners affect the price of Bitcoin?
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on: Today at 12:53:07 AM
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I am always compelled to respond to this topic because I feel there are so many myths and misunderstandings. A private company would never allow the price of the product go below its manufacturing cost and, I think, the same can also be said to miners. Collectively, they will never allow the price go below the mining cost.
Explain how a miner can prevent the price from going below their cost. How does a miner stop everyone else from selling their bitcoins below her cost? How does a miner force buyers to pay more than her cost? Also, the idea that nobody will ever sell an investment at a loss is ridiculous. People sell things at a loss all the time. I recently sold a bunch of stocks a loss, and I was happy to do it because not only will it reduce my taxes, but I will buy it all back later this year after the price has dropped even more. Bitcoin price is just supply and demand (and manipulation). If a miner can no longer mine while remaining profitable, he can: - Stop mining, sell his hardware
- Stop mining, keep his hardware in case the price goes up or the diff goes down
- Keep mining at a loss, hodl the mined BTC
- Keep mining at a loss, sell the mined BTC
I agree but note that it doesn't make sense to keep mining at a loss (if you don't have to) because you can buy the bitcoins for a lower cost. a lot of people are assuming that the mining difficulty approximately a month and a half from now is going to pump bitcoin's price because the selling pressure from miners is going to be cut in half because the bitcoin that's going to be "minted" is going to be halved(hence why it's called the "halving").
That is a very common misconception. The supply of bitcoins continues to increase toward 21 million despite the halving. Furthermore, as the supply of bitcoin increases, miner "selling pressure" (if that is really even a thing), as a portion of the entire market, continuously drops. These days, the influence of miners as a group on the market is tiny. Compare the total daily market volume to the 1800 BTC that miners sell. |
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12
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Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: convert bitcoin address to ethereum address
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on: March 28, 2020, 10:07:15 AM
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This is how it works:
1. Use the address to find the public key in the block chain. In order to send bitcoins, the sender must provide the public key that corresponds to the address holding the bitcoins. That is the reason for the requirement, "Given the BTC address was already used to SEND."
2. Just as a Bitcoin address is derived from the public key, so is an Ethereum address.
3. A public key is derived from a private key. Since both the Bitcoin address and ethereum address come from the same public key, they also come from the same private key.
Actually, since the addresses of many types of coins are derived from public keys. You can do the same trick with other coins, too (as long as they use the secp256k1 ECC curve).
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14
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Other / Off-topic / Re: Doing a scheme with a lawyer
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on: March 26, 2020, 09:03:32 AM
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The UK approved to pay 80% of employees' salaries. My accountant recommended me doing this scheme with this lawyer.
he seems legit enough for me + there is money back thing which is appealing to my eyes.
I'm ready to send him my money. Any recommendations, am I the only one doing it or you are also doing that guys?
Your accountant is either an idiot or a crook. It's a very obvious scam. You send him BTC so that he can send you money? That's such an old scam. |
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15
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Other / Off-topic / Re: Why privacy matters
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on: March 24, 2020, 06:08:54 PM
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People who say they don’t care about privacy because they have got nothing to hide have not thought too deeply about these issues. What they are really saying is I do not care about this right.
When you say I don’t care about the right to privacy because I have nothing to hide, that is no different than saying I don’t care about freedom of speech because I have nothing to say or freedom of the press because I have nothing to write.
-- Edward Snowden
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16
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Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Hello, new on bitcoin, having some questions.
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on: March 24, 2020, 05:57:59 PM
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1) Do transactions have a SHA256 name when they get completed? Like 9f86d081884c7d659a2feaa0c55ad015a3bf4f1b2b0b822cd15d6c15b0f00a08 ?
2) If a transaction is done then it's getting noted on the network. So each computer downloads:
BITCOIN_ADDRESS_1 sent 0.342 BTC to BITCOIN_ADDRESS_2
3) Can we see the 200GB+ Network txt file?
1. Yes, a transaction is identified by its SHA-256 hash. Not sure what you mean by "completed", but that is irrelevant. 2. Nodes receive transactions before they have been added to the block chain as well as blocks of transactions that have been added. Transactions are not "BITCOIN_ADDRESS_1 sent 0.342 BTC to BITCOIN_ADDRESS_2". That is a simplification. Here is what a transaction looks like: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Transaction. 3. Anyone can download the block chain by running a node. The block chain is not a txt file. |
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18
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Economy / Service Discussion / Re: This is My experience with iqmining.com
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on: March 24, 2020, 02:34:18 AM
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All miners should understand this: mining revenue falls as the difficulty rises. That's how it works. Live and learn.
Cloud mining is a money loser. Most cloud mining sites are scams. A few may be "legitimate", but they will charge you enough in fees that you will never make a profit.
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