Yes, I see that post on getmonero as a statement to the ASIC manufacturers. That Monero is and always will be ASIC resistant. With recent fast growth of Monero mining hash power were some speculations that someone build an ASIC miner. This change totally denies that speculation.  And to make a change every 6 months is not needed. I read it someone said it would be enough to do it every 2 years.

I'm curious.  It was mentioned that there will come a time that Monero won't be doing the bi annual hard forks in the future as the coin becomes big enough that any hard fork could get risky.  Does that mean ASIC's could come anyway?

I think you could be the price between 800 and 1000 $ for the third quarter of this year, and I would like that increase to be stable and not with so much volatility

I still don't get why some people are getting so worked up about CRYPTO/USD prices, particularly when it comes to speculation. At this stage of the game all that matters is XMR/BTC. If your primary objective is the long-term accumulation of USD, then you are going to lose.

Sure, if you've got present-day commitments that are inescapable then I guess you've gotta do what you've gotta do, but c'mon guys... you don't need faith or subjective delusion to realise that in general, the nature of social-political behaviour is that given time ultimately individuals gravitate toward freedom while collectives gravitate toward progressivly fairer systems, and in BOTH scenarios, legacy finance ends up ded, centralized banks end up ded, state-sponsored tokens end up ded and powerful oligarchical fuckfaces end up wounded, presumably retreating to fuck us over in some other kind of way.

So right now I'm looking at the XMR/BTC chart and like all other CRYPTO/BTC charts, it's about as exciting as the mediterranean is to surfers. Business as usual. Everything is much the same as it ever was and within acceptable ranges.

I think by now, most people in this thread have a visceral understanding that XMR/BTC will be reaching new highs towards the end of the period starting end of Feb and finishing around about mid-summer. That's all that matters. Fuck the USD. It's not to important to the current mission.

At any point in time, ever, the only speculatively bad thing that can happen to XMR is if it goes down significantly against BTC.... and even if that were to happen (it's not) then it's only going to bounce back up again. You already know this.

For everyone else, at times like this I think it's worth taking to heart the wisdom of anglo-japanese financial trader Kero Kero Bonito, particularly in her 2016 publication entitled: Trampoline.

You can listen to the full 4 minute speech here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tTkHkLDy0HI

As far as I'm concerned it's potentially the most important trading advice ever given.

Peace.
 

Following the advice of others which seemed sound to me, I buy and hold Monero in cold stores etched on to iridium plates stored on three continents using a redundant variation of Shamir, for the most part but also trade swings on vega volatility with 5% of holdings.

My long term views are based primarily on fairly standard economic models for money supply, for the PPP correlation of currencies modulo RFR differences, estimation of the growth rate of DNMs and their adoption curves, and of reserve demand levels for digital assets.  Given such estimates, parameterized by event timing, one derives a distribution surface which can be integrated out to determine the rNPV of Monero.  When it is below the current clearing price, XMR is undervalued, and vice versa contrariwise.  The first order estimate is roughly 3k USD in 2020,  when I plan to begin divesting 10% of contemporaneous holdings annually.  (The distribution is fairly wide, however, and the horizon obscured by intervening construction.)  Naively, i.e. without risk adjustment over the scenario distribution, that provides an NPV of ~2700.  The correct risk adjustment is basically impossible to make without Monte Carlo (baccarat), and has huge sensitivity to model missteps, both parametric and structural, so I won't go in to detail on it, except to say that in the end, over that tenor, integrating over scenarios, I get an rNPV of ~2100.  In general it is the high weighting of the model's tails which makes the estimates so high.

I discount for model error by a factor of 10, which is just a dead reckoning based on past experience with model error and leg lengths during Fashion Week.  Consequently, today I buy for the long term under 210.  A simple volatility trading strategy is to sell an aluminum ladder based on  z score, and to buy when the valuation discountings yield an undervaluation judgement.  I last sold at 400, and when I sell again will be determined by the price path after the manner of my poker instructor, Feynmann.  If it rises too high too fast, I start selling from the 5%, and buy them back on the opposite ladder, up to the penultimate rung.  Residing in Chile, I can hedge these swings with options on correlated futures in an SPV without incurring the Tobin tax.

Who else is starting to feel like we may finish this year at ~$200 USD?

I've spent a lot of time doing some research and can now confirm that XMR will have at least 3.5% of BTC's marketcap by February 24th at just after 2pm PST.

You can take that to the bank. (I mean it this time.)

To be honest what i´m doing is downgrading it. no it´s downgraded to less than 1k equivalent in a bunch of alts.
I was very understanting when the overwhelming amount of people joined and they just couldn´t handle support. Know that time as passed the lack of support is an option, so i moved my monero and my trading somewhere else.

what a crazy month ... i wonder how long it will be like this. again at 300 usd , a few days ago 400 ... i know it all has to do with bitcoin , and that for bitcoin januari is a special month where we see some lows...
but it gives me the creeps . HODL still seems the best solution but men , what we have to go throug last few days.

Anybody of the pro's has an opinion on the price for the comming weeks?

Wasn't there a discussion about part implementation?

It is pretty obvious now that Bulletproofs will not happen in March HF.  Seems few still live in denial and believe it can happen.

Bulletproofs will need an audit that should take a month of time.  There need to be selected people ( more time we have better auditors we can choose) to audit and gathered founds to pay them.

On my opinion the date for code freeze for March HF should be set as soon as possible.

Yes the meeting dedicated to Bulletproofs as was decided on last Developers meeting:  https://monerobase.com/wiki/MRLMeeting_2018-01-21

It is pretty obvious now that Bulletproofs will not happen in March HF.  Seems few still live in denial and believe it can happen.

Bulletproofs will need an audit that should take a month of time.  There need to be selected people ( more time we have better auditors we can choose) to audit and gathered founds to pay them.

On my opinion the date for code freeze for March HF should be set as soon as possible.

I know the next big point is $1,000 for Monero but I can't understand the time for this. I'm preparing to buy some Monero before this action to take place. I think this will happen in the third quarter of the year.

It this causing the current kerblammo in price?

Is there any credibility to this?

I picked $230 by just taking 50% from the ATH of $460-475 and rounding down. However, I believe the price was over $500 on a few non-Bithumb exchanges, which would make today's low of $254 a "reasonable" bottom.

That said, I wouldn't assume we've seen the bottom quite yet.

EDIT: The price did go to $237 on Bittrex.

As far as I'm concerned, it has to. What else is going to drag XMR down to $230 where it needs to be?