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401  Economy / Economics / Re: Is Bitcoin a Pyramid or Ponzi scheme & what are the ramifications? on: December 01, 2013, 02:21:13 AM
I was pointing to the logic in the linked article.  Personally I don't think Gary North made a fair representation of Austrian thinking but that's the article we were asked to read and discuss.

And you said you didn't read it! Smiley

Quote
I still think the fact that everyone in society has access to endless food and endless leisure means that things are "fine."  Improvements possible but lets not go nuts and ignore just how good modern life really is.

Hmmm.  Define society please?  Half of the US is living off of the other half.  Is that endless food and endless leisure?  

Not sure about you, but I personally am required to go to work 5 days a week to earn a living.  It is work, I wouldn't call it leisure.  I don't have servants at my beckon to take care of daily chores and tasks.  Nor am I am one one of those privileged to have a summer and winter home.  Nor do I have a luxurious pension and retirement plan waiting for me when I get older as the "fat cat" banksters and politicians do.


I'm pretty sure that he meant that in the context of the level of work to rest ratio that prior generations have had to endure.  On net, he's correct in this sense, although it's not 'endless'.
402  Economy / Economics / Re: Do you really believe in bitcoin as a currency? on: December 01, 2013, 12:44:08 AM
Unfortunately I think the "miners are going out of business" concern troll will be with Bitcoin for a long time.  There is just way too much potential profit to be made by erecting even the smallest roadblocks in the way of mining competition for them to ever die out completely.

The reading comprehension of dolts is unfathomable. Never did I write "going out of business". What I said is the level of mining (although profitable for those miners) will not be funded sufficiently (relative to the size of the Bitcoin economy) to prevent a 50+% attack because  either you penalize transactions (which Bitcoin needs in order to be viable) or you incentivize my Transactions Withholding Attack.

The problem with you novices is you don't understand the issues well enough to even be making any decisions. You are ignorant.

AnonyMint, you neither understand of what you speak, nor know of whom you speak. 
403  Economy / Speculation / Re: #1 most popular Bitcoin Price Forecasts (+1,492% gains, +750% more than B&H) on: November 30, 2013, 11:58:47 PM
Just one question: Has anyone of our forecasters, technical analysts etc been able to see the move from 100s to 1000s?

When prices were at 100 $ in May 2013, our forecast was a rally to at least 320 $, with further upside into round numbers of 500 $ and 1000 $..

I remember that. Then again, S3052 has always been very bullish on Bitcoin. Time proved him to be dead on.

True.  But the merit of an investment advisor is not in his ability to predict an ongoing trend, but to predict an oncoming inflection point.  If S3052 will be able to change his bullish outlook in time to avoid a crash, then I will be impressed.
404  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: I am pretty confident we are the new wealthy elite, gentlemen. on: November 30, 2013, 10:51:41 PM
~10% daily growth!

For now.  Keep in mind that we've had several bubbles already, and a 10% daily growth rate screams "bubble!".

This has been nothing but a staircase.   I don't see a bubble.  We had 10% daily growth rates over.... and over ... and over .... and yet all we've done is gone up.


then you haven't been around here long enough.  I've seen at least three bubbles pop since I've been here.  It's like the Bitcoin economy is moving along at 10 times the speed of the greater economy as it grows.  I don't doubt that we'll see a $10K BTC before 2020, and maybe before 2016; but it's not all up.  Nothing is ever all up.
405  Economy / Economics / Re: Is Bitcoin a Pyramid or Ponzi scheme & what are the ramifications? on: November 30, 2013, 10:41:04 PM

I was pointing to the logic in the linked article.  Personally I don't think Gary North made a fair representation of Austrian thinking but that's the article we were asked to read and discuss.


Fair enough.  I don't think Gary North is a fair representation of Austrian thinking under any context.  While he makes for some great reading; I'd say he is very much a conservative, and is rather constrained in his thought processes to be called an Austrian economist, even if he claims the term.

Quote
Medically you are 100% correct.  Fit people who eat well don't have any lifespan advantage over fat couch potatoes once you take tobacco out of the picture.  While alive, they seem to have better quality of life in terms of less diabetes and the like but we all die at much the same age. 

I still think the fact that everyone in society has access to endless food and endless leisure means that things are "fine."  Improvements possible but lets not go nuts and ignore just how good modern life really is.

Well said.
406  Economy / Services / Re: Need a customer/fan sign for advertising? (Female) on: November 30, 2013, 10:34:34 PM
Is that a condom next to your mouse?

Looks like a book of matches and one of those wet-wipes you can get at BBQ resturants to me.
407  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: I am pretty confident we are the new wealthy elite, gentlemen. on: November 30, 2013, 10:31:25 PM
~10% daily growth!

For now.  Keep in mind that we've had several bubbles already, and a 10% daily growth rate screams "bubble!".
408  Economy / Economics / Re: Is Bitcoin a Pyramid or Ponzi scheme & what are the ramifications? on: November 30, 2013, 10:28:21 PM
Gary North has cast his vote...

http://www.garynorth.com/public/11828.cfm

M

This is a really sad article by Gary North.  He claims that Bitcoins can never become a real unit of exchange, but never really offers a reason why not.  The old austrians are proving to be very disappointing in the capacity to imagine change.
409  Economy / Economics / Re: Is Bitcoin a Pyramid or Ponzi scheme & what are the ramifications? on: November 30, 2013, 10:21:07 PM

Its planned - and therefore in Austrian terms, its not money.  Please don't debate semantics on an article that you recommended. 


I know I'm being nitpicky here, but while I agree that (in an Austrian Economic sense) Bitcoins are not money, the reason for that is not because it is a planned/designed currency.  That would be because the currency unit itself has no alternative use outside of the context of being a currency. (the counter-argument about the use value of the settlement network notwithstanding)  For example, the British Pound was once a planned currency unit, but the actual coins were minted from real gold or silver, so they were also a money.  The definition of what "money" is might need adjustment to include a deliberately designed 'free market' currency system, but probably not.  Most people don't really know what "money" really is, and don't care about the details.

Quote
In Western countries, the biggest killers of the very poor are diseases caused by too much food and diseases caused by too much leisure.  You can argue that things might be better but in terms of economies doing the stuff I want, things are fine.  


I not sure who actually said this, but the part I highlighted is actually a myth.  While it's true enough that a great many final causes of death can be traced back to poor personal habits, it's also true that everyone dies of something.  The reality is that, in Western nations, the vast majority of people die from complications related to living much longer than a natural lifespan permits.  People get fat because they eat too much, but many get fat because they are too old to practially exercise and have the means to enjoy too much food.  Some people get heart problems because they smoke, most get heart problems because they have lived long enough.  Simply put, if you live long enough, something is going to break; the fact that so many official causes for death are related to officially avoidable things does not change the fact that Americans live so much longer than we used to.
410  Economy / Economics / Re: Peter Schiff on Bitcoin on: November 28, 2013, 04:50:07 AM
I think it's also important to point out that in debates/commentary like the Schiff clips posted in this thread, the term "intrinsic value" is not being used in its strict financial definition. What Peter Schiff is talking about is "value" being modified by the general adjective "intrinsic".

The actual technical term "intrinsic value" does not actually mean what he's talking about.

We've actually been over this point to a great deal.
411  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Imagine a bitcoin network of 1 computer. (The fake blockchain attack) on: November 28, 2013, 01:55:18 AM

I think, when discussing the possibility of attack with people (even engineers) new to Bitcoin, it is important to mention both. There is the level of security provided by the truly staggering power of the network, in the sense that it is fair to say that even the NSA and world governments could not attack it with their general-purpose supercompute assets; and then follow that up with the caveat that (1) we're all watching quantum compute developments very closely, because they change things, and (2) in the meantime there are ASICs, and then quickly discuss exactly what gmaxwell just stated, and note that while perhaps there is not the necessary supply in existence for an organization to buy enough Avalons etc. to perform an attack, the cost is within some extreme budgets (extreme for people, but not organizations).


I'll add a (3) to that as well, which is that, while estimates based on trying to buy ASIC hashpower at retail may result in a $15M order and a long backorder, it would cost less than that to hire an experienced ASIC design team for a year and to have your own ASICs spun, if you personally wanted that kind of volume. My team could have tapeout in 3 - 6 months, implement a usually-necessary metal revision in another 1 - 2, and I can guarantee it would equal or outperform the best on the market, all for probably $1.5M in total engineers' salaries and another few million (2 -3 maybe) for the silicon. I may be vastly overestimating the complexity of putting these functions on an ASIC, so probably it could cost less, or just be engineered to a T and mop the floor with the current entrants. I haven't looked closely at it because Broadcom and our other two primary contract-employers have never tried to pay us to do it Wink

The US government in particular "owns" a large amount of (mostly rad-hardened) ASIC fab capacity itself, probably more than enough than is necessary, if they wanted to use it. We're safe from all the probable attacks, and most of the improbable ones. There are a couple outlandish scenarios that are possible, like that one. The question is why they would attack the network when more money is to be made in securinghashing algoit, which is one of the key design principles laid out by Satoshi in the first place. Until someone can demonstrate a method in which this is false, we only need to worry about the Joker showing up ("some people just want to watch the world burn"), with the resources to do it.

Addressing all three of your points at once.  Not only did Satoshi foresee the quantum computing risks concerning bitcoin, he provided a path to deal with such issues.  There is an upgrade path for the primary hashing algo, including "hooks" in the existing code to permit a second algo to be added in series to the current SHA256.  Whatever algo that best deals with the most likely threat, be it quantum computing or private asic farms, cna be chosen to be added to the system without so much as stopping the blockchian.  A similar algo upgrade path was provided for with regard to the address keypair algos.  (the leading charachter is currently always a "1", this tells the bitcoin network what address version is in play, although currently no other choice exists)
412  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Imagine a bitcoin network of 1 computer. (The fake blockchain attack) on: November 28, 2013, 12:24:32 AM
Could you elaborate on how it is more complicated?  I am interested in the precise way to calculate the proof of work of the chain.
Then go read the code.

Sorry, I thought it might be possible to express as a formula in a forum post.

For example, if a blockchain has two blocks, then the total work T is equal the difficulty of block 1 + the difficulty of block 2

or perhaps if the work, W, is a function of the difficulty, d, then then the total work is:

T = W(d1) + W(d2)

where d1 and d2 are the difficulty of blocks 1 and 2

Close, but you have to understand that the difficulty is a human friendly expression of what is going on, and isn't exactly how the clients handle it.  If you want to know, you really do need to understand how it's done by the client.
413  Bitcoin / Press / Re: 2013-11-27 NYTIMES: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail on: November 28, 2013, 12:22:09 AM
  The fact that they are attacking must mean they feel threatened.   Smiley

Too late.
414  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: I am pretty confident we are the new wealthy elite, gentlemen. on: November 28, 2013, 12:21:09 AM
Can you get around paying taxes on bitcoin if you buy things directly instead of converting to fiat? Also, how would the government know how much you should pay if there is no record of what price you bought your bitcoins at?


The real question isn't can it be done.  The question is, are you willing to break your local laws?
415  Economy / Services / Re: Need a customer/fan sign for advertising? (Female) on: November 28, 2013, 12:17:36 AM
Perhaps you could find out where & when the next geek meeting is happening, lan-party maybe?  Crash the party and enlist the boys around you to help you in your photo.  There are a number of video game related vendors here that might be interested in such a viral marketing ploy.

I'm sure that you know how to get a few gamer geeks to do what you want.
416  Economy / Services / Re: Need a customer/fan sign for advertising? (Female) on: November 28, 2013, 12:14:39 AM
Well I can do anything but nudity. I will not do any nudity under any circumstance. I was just trying to show what I look like by the way, not how the sign would look.

I understand, and I'm wouldn't recommend nudity anyway. I mentioned that event only to highlight what has happened before.  You could get creative with outfits and such.  Perhaps a steampunk game-show style letter mover with an adjustable sign?  Perhaps find a partner, and hold up a large bilboard-ish sign in a well known public space? 
417  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: I am pretty confident we are the new wealthy elite, gentlemen. on: November 28, 2013, 12:01:18 AM
I would like to congratulate everyone who were the early adopters, investors, and accepters of Bitcoins. Despite the naysayers, you all kept were patient and held on to your Bitcoins, now you are reaping benefits that many thought were imaginable. I am a late starter with Bitcoins, and just started accepting it as payment for my products and services (which I'll reveal in a later post), and I am very happy I made the decision. Maybe a movie should be made about the early adopters who became wealthy from Bitcoin, make it into one of those "underdog beats the odds" stories. Just a thought.



You are not a late-adopter.  Bitcoin's market share is what?  10 Billion dollars?  That's chump change for just an online payment processor such as Paypal.  We have a long way to go yet.
418  Economy / Services / Re: Need a customer/fan sign for advertising? (Female) on: November 27, 2013, 11:57:44 PM
Honestly, I think that you might want to redo that example photo.  Viral marketing requires a bit more than a photo of you holding a single sheet of paper with a handwritten message.  Perhaps something on a plain white t-shirt?  You're not the first forum member to come up with a similar idea.  When I was still a mod, we had to deal with another female forum member who was willing to sell advertising photos of messages written onto her bare skin.  Many of those ads were not safe for work.  I'm not suggesting you do the same thing, but you're going to have to be more creative than a semi-goth girl holding a sheet of notebook paper.
419  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: 0.0001 btc transfer fee is big in usd. on: November 27, 2013, 11:50:11 PM
When the protocol was created nobody envisioned that one bitcoin could go to $1000.

That's not true at all.  Many, if not most, of the early movers around here expected to see a $1000 bitcoin eventually.  I don't know if anyone expected to see $1000 per BTC before the second block reward halving, however.  I certainly didn't.
420  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: 0.0001 btc transfer fee is big in usd. on: November 27, 2013, 11:47:06 PM
I believe value of current 0.0001 btc is cost about 10 cent usd today. This would be huge if many small transfer are made or business that have small margin.  Sad

Yes, but Bitcoin wasn't designed to be a micropayment system, per se.  That may or may not (more likely not) occur using less common transaction types, such as using a single send-to-many transaction for weekly payroll or a household's monthly bills.

That said, the minimum transaction fee has been repeatedly reduced as the value of a bitcoin has increased.  I expect that the transaction fee will drop back down to around a cent or less with the next client code update.
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