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221  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis on: February 20, 2013, 11:24:56 PM
Volume picked up a little recently.  There were 25 bets of 100 BTC or more in the last 24 hours.  Since 'the whale' stopped playing on 5th Feb there have been an average of 1 such big bet per day.

See http://www.satoshidice.com/lookup.php?limit=100&min_bet=100 for the more recent 100 bets of 100 BTC or more.

Yeah, 2 new whale addresses with about 5k total between them.  Looks good for s.dice.  Although it doesn't totally solve the problem of the missing 'main' whale who spent 37k out his 40k total coins on S.DICE already.

222  Economy / Securities / Re: S.DICE - SatoshiDICE 100% Dividend-Paying Asset on MPEx on: February 10, 2013, 09:03:30 PM
May be it helps if you would explain your rationale behind the sell.

In this specific instance, one of the few large private owners wanted to sell some of his stake to me. I bought it, and resold part of it on MPEX. On net, my stake actually increased, though everyone saw it as me "dumping"  Roll Eyes

Okay, thank you. The I have one additional question (of course you don't have to answer). Why didn't you just make a market order instead of selling them below market? (or am I missing something?)

Do you understand what a market order is?  The bid depth was < 1,000,000 shares above .00000101 at the time. 


223  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis on: February 10, 2013, 02:48:30 PM

Do you have net profit/loss details for each address?

According to the SD website's leaderboard, 1EP4rM is the 2nd biggest net winning overall.

But until very recently, the 1Di6ux address was listed as being in first place, with many less bets than it had actually made, so I don't really trust the leaderboard page.

I saw on the S.DICE thread earlier today that Erik's recent "dumps" were a result of a large S.DICE private investor cashing out by selling to Erik, and Erik passing on a part of his shares to the market.  My first thought was "I wonder if HE was the whale?".

It's a bit difficult to determine because they pass the coins around between them, and I don't really want to do a serious analysis.  But, looking over the history, it appears to be something along the lines of

Code:
                                     Starting Remaining     
15HJgkvj6roZQvNRC3pUJNKP2YgfEuD8wo     3323       0 BTC 
17sjYPaYJAvtwXM2q5ojzrCiYewnQMBi9y     2271    1233 BTC 
1A3z7M6GhpUejQ5eqgSyjVWRuezeepdKKV      735       0 BTC    
1B5h9sf6xNLYGa3NBk48hwYbxyNZ22PRJk    11199       0 BTC    
1DBH7Xum2re7LXd8YNSe1uRznttsqeMXGK     4211       0 BTC 
1Di6ux3CQBNXCZLD76BsnYWDo6XnFGzQah     3317    1649 BTC 
1EP4rM8hLZCRSWPNZDWJp9zdvmoWYkkgbQ    12200      31 BTC 
1MxgyKiKiHEemMUTJuq9NAbjmhKnUL5Ric     2500       0 BTC 
224  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis on: February 10, 2013, 01:09:51 AM
The following addresses contributed approximately 40,000BTC to S.DICE's profits.

This is how much they have left.

Code:
                                     Remaining
15HJgkvj6roZQvNRC3pUJNKP2YgfEuD8wo      0BTC
17sjYPaYJAvtwXM2q5ojzrCiYewnQMBi9y      0BTC
1A3z7M6GhpUejQ5eqgSyjVWRuezeepdKKV      0BTC  
1B5h9sf6xNLYGa3NBk48hwYbxyNZ22PRJk      0BTC  
1DBH7Xum2re7LXd8YNSe1uRznttsqeMXGK      0BTC
1Di6ux3CQBNXCZLD76BsnYWDo6XnFGzQah   1649BTC
1EP4rM8hLZCRSWPNZDWJp9zdvmoWYkkgbQ     31BTC
1MxgyKiKiHEemMUTJuq9NAbjmhKnUL5Ric      0BTC

Any questions?
225  Economy / Securities / Re: S.DICE - SatoshiDICE 100% Dividend-Paying Asset on MPEx on: February 09, 2013, 01:03:03 PM

Tranche announcement - I'm going to keep the 3rd tranche available for another 24 hrs (until 5pm EST Saturday). After that, I'll remove it and will not be adding any other shares to the market. I'll hold on to the 4th and 5th tranches as it seems the market is satiated with the current supply.


Aaaand its gone.

Someone bought all of it!

Will there be a fourth tranche now?
226  Economy / Securities / Re: S.DICE - SatoshiDICE 100% Dividend-Paying Asset on MPEx on: February 05, 2013, 04:16:35 PM
I don't think the ravings of some clueless people on reddit are worth even responding to.

Looking forward to the next release.
227  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis on: January 30, 2013, 10:27:44 PM

The high roller uses the following 8 addresses, by the way:

Code:
15HJgkvj6roZQvNRC3pUJNKP2YgfEuD8wo
17sjYPaYJAvtwXM2q5ojzrCiYewnQMBi9y
1A3z7M6GhpUejQ5eqgSyjVWRuezeepdKKV
1B5h9sf6xNLYGa3NBk48hwYbxyNZ22PRJk
1DBH7Xum2re7LXd8YNSe1uRznttsqeMXGK
1Di6ux3CQBNXCZLD76BsnYWDo6XnFGzQah
1EP4rM8hLZCRSWPNZDWJp9zdvmoWYkkgbQ
1MxgyKiKiHEemMUTJuq9NAbjmhKnUL5Ric

The 1B5h9sf6xNLYGa3NBk48hwYbxyNZ22PRJk address topped up the 1Di6ux address with a 4104 BTC deposit after it ran dry... 

http://blockchain.info/tx/4fbce1a17a74947e8714fc43e2d17af36b243ab860ca94eb65f37da0f8de03a1
228  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis on: January 30, 2013, 09:32:44 PM
Amazing!

Over 1,100,000 BTC bet this month?!?  

That is over TWICE last month's volume, which I thought was insane and unsustainable.

So what if S.DICE got unlucky near the end of the month.  Variance is part of the game, and is why the whales keep playing.  The important thing is the steepness of the red line.
229  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: [Avalon ASIC] Batch #2 pre-Sale Thread on: January 30, 2013, 06:33:24 PM
I agree with all of this, but if there are people willing to take the risk and pay for batch #2 now, why should the buyers or Avalon wait?  If nobody is willing to take that risk, Avalon will have to do as you suggest.  But if sufficient numbers of people are willing to pay for batch #2 now, then Avalon can go ahead and people who want to be safer will just have to wait for batch #3 or later, right?  People who want to bungie jump without a tested cord shouldn't be told they have to wait until the cord is tested for people who want to be safer, IMO.
That's kind of my thinking as well... Avalon can post batch #2 for sale whenever they want, and people can order if they believe they are legitimate.  Anyone who wants to wait to see more proof can wait to see more proof.  It's a free market.
The problem is that if they are a scam, this just proves that BTC people in general tend to be gullible and naive, swayed by the blindfolds of promised profits. There have been some pretty large scams in the past, and we don't need another giant one. It just hurts the Bitcoin economy in the end.

The avalon scam already has happened.  People just don't realize it yet.  Avalon scam part #2 is happening now.
230  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Avalon is (unfortunately) a scam. Here is why. on: January 30, 2013, 12:00:53 AM
I think they've made clear that their counter-argument is going to be coming in a box with fans and ASICs in it. I'm just getting the popcorn. Being at the cutting edge of mining is a high-risk venture.

This is not the cutting edge of mining.  Its the latest scam.
231  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: [Avalon ASIC] Batch #2 pre-Sale Thread on: January 29, 2013, 11:59:39 PM
So basically this is the "we are really a scam" moment of truth for Avalon?

I have been waiting patiently for this moment.  Any person stupid and greedy enough to send MORE coins to avalon before there is conclusive proof of many working units, well, I feel sorry for your mother. Shame.

Classic.
232  Economy / Gambling / Re: This is the magnificent bitcoin gem on: January 26, 2013, 05:43:54 PM
Hello fellow bitcoiners,

Here's my new weekend project: the magnificent bitcoin gem.
This is intended to be an entertaining bitcoin experiment  I hope you like it.

Your thought, comments and bug reports are appreciated!

Upgrade your server before you ruin the chain!
233  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Who are the Satoshi Dice whales? on: January 25, 2013, 10:14:02 PM
They all have a similar map on the block chain visualizer.

http://blockviewer.com/#1Di6ux3CQBNXCZLD76BsnYWDo6XnFGzQah

Who is the drakedog;leominer node?  Is that a mixing service?

Partial list of whale addresses :

1Di6ux3CQBNXCZLD76BsnYWDo6XnFGzQah
1CG6xGSAtwpKnjkMY3E6AcctVMvx7Z6xue
1B5h9sf6xNLYGa3NBk48hwYbxyNZ22PRJk
15HJgkvj6roZQvNRC3pUJNKP2YgfEuD8wo
1EP4rM8hLZCRSWPNZDWJp9zdvmoWYkkgbQ
1Mn9Zn1RbfJkEAcwLm4qm8QpawmWrq9Zbj
17sjYPaYJAvtwXM2q5ojzrCiYewnQMBi9y
234  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis on: January 25, 2013, 12:35:05 PM
Another 60,000 in bets with it pretty much flat since last plot.
235  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: January 24, 2013, 05:35:49 PM
In case you missed it, during the action last night, two parties built up a very sizable options position during the move.

Someone bought ~33,000 calls between $17-20 strike.
Someone else sold short 27,000 puts between $33-35 strike.

Chatlog :
http://polimedia.us/trilema/2013/marketplace-excitement-with-expert-commentary-for-your-vicarious-trading-pleasure/

The puts alone would require a deposit of at least 60,000 BTC in the seller's MPEx account.  Could this person also be preparing to push the exchange rate upward?

All of these options expire TONIGHT. So the rate needs to be moving NOW.



Can you explain the significance of this to (like I am five)?

the person who bought the calls can exercise a right to buy BTC at the strike price (17-20).  So the buyer thinks that the price will be above this price (and obviously the seller does not).  But it is not quite even in sentiment because a seller generally walks away happy -- he gets to sell the BTC at what is presumably a profit AND gets the price of the option (read abt covered call investment strategies).

The buyer of a put has the right to sell BTC at the strike price (33-35).  So some seller is VERY bullish.  Except I don't understand the terminology "sell short a put"... I suppose that might mean the seller does not have the USD in his account to cover -- he only has BTC (or some other security).




Sell short a put means he used the MKOPT function to create puts, for which he needs to deposit a sum of roughly 2.5 BTC / contract at these strike prices.  He then sells the put to the market-making bot, booking a gain of the sale price (~0.9BTC/contract).  On options expiration (today at 10pm GMT), the put is exercised and he gets his deposit back, minus the current value of the put.  For example, if the current 24hour volume weight BTC price at the time of expiration is $20 / BTC, for one put with a $35 strike price he gets back his deposit (2.5 BTC) minus the put value (35-20)/20=0.75.  So, -2.5 +0.9 + 2.5 - 0.75 = 0.15 BTC profit per put.  0.15/2.5 = 6% return on capital in about 12 hours.

Of course, the BTCUSD price could crash.   For example to $15.  Then -2.5 + 0.9 + 2.5 - (35-15)/20 = -0.1 BTC/contract  a 4% loss on capital.

236  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Why $17? Because this is happening... on: January 24, 2013, 05:20:54 PM
Actually this may have something to do with it :



Bitcoin is being driven by financials not by retail, I say.
What kind of chart is that?

Co-ask

That's the relative performance of my bitcoin portfolio.  Zero = unchanged, 1 = a doubling of portfolio value.

its pretty old though (from last night).

I'd post the latest but its formatted really big.
237  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis on: January 24, 2013, 01:38:15 PM
I think the action has finally slowed.

My excel sheet is saying S.DICE ended up around +14,000
238  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: January 24, 2013, 01:35:29 PM
In case you missed it, during the action last night, two parties built up a very sizable options position during the move.

Someone bought ~33,000 calls between $17-20 strike.
Someone else sold short 27,000 puts between $33-35 strike.

Chatlog :
http://polimedia.us/trilema/2013/marketplace-excitement-with-expert-commentary-for-your-vicarious-trading-pleasure/

The puts alone would require a deposit of at least 60,000 BTC in the seller's MPEx account.  Could this person also be preparing to push the exchange rate upward?

All of these options expire TONIGHT. So the rate needs to be moving NOW.

239  Economy / Securities / Re: S.DICE - SatoshiDICE 100% Dividend-Paying Asset on MPEx on: January 23, 2013, 02:42:06 PM

Congrats on all the success and publicity.  Smiley

I was curious why the stock value skyrocketed yesterday. Dang, here I had been thinking I was a genius for having sold most of my position at around 0.0054.

Well there was also the 10,000 BTC profit on 125,000 BTC of betting in the last 24 hours...
240  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis on: January 23, 2013, 12:48:35 PM
My rudimentary analysis estimates that there were over 100,000 BTC bet in the last 17 hours since Doog's last chart, and S.DICE is up about 10,000 since then.  They were up more, but the whales clawed a few thousand back.  The betting is still ongoing, coming in bursts of 4000BTC every thirty minutes or so, bet across a variety of levels (< 1k, 2k, 12k, 16k, 32k for example).   

This brings the total volume to around 420,000 for the month, which is now back on pace to beat last month in total betting volume, and a bit behind last month's return (though very close to the actual EV for this amount bet).



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