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241  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis on: January 23, 2013, 12:44:36 PM
There was a bigger than usual volume of betting over the last 24 hours.  I was curious to see how the rule change of Jan 3rd affected the volume.  It does look like the December whales stopped playing just as the rule changed, but maybe they're back now:



Is it strange that this graph is roughly speaking linear?

Looks more exponential than linear to me. Especially when you add in today's action.
242  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis on: January 23, 2013, 12:43:37 PM

Hello, can you explain about the rule changes, I don't get it and understand what changed.

Thanks !

Instead of using one lucky number for every s. dice betting address (i.e. less than 2000, 8000, 16000) when a bunch of bets are placed at the same time from a single address, s.dice now uses a different lucky number for every transaction component. This would decrease the variance.
243  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis on: January 23, 2013, 05:06:32 AM
The whales are definitely back.

And it appears they have lost 10,000 BTC since your update!  (block 217599 - 217616)

Indeed - and they're still playing...

Quote
Results: 2013-Jan-22 08:42pm (up to block 217651)

SD Profit before fees:      46089.86961885 BTC (2.153%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        1847.76947500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       44242.10014385 BTC (2.066%)
Pending Liabilities:         -682.69538813 BTC
Final SD Profit:            44924.79553198 BTC (2.098%)

And going....

Over 13,000BTC profit up to 217654....
244  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis on: January 22, 2013, 10:05:37 PM
There was a bigger than usual volume of betting over the last 24 hours.  I was curious to see how the rule change of Jan 3rd affected the volume.  It does look like the December whales stopped playing just as the rule changed, but maybe they're back now:


The whales are definitely back.

And it appears they have lost 10,000 BTC since your update!  (block 217599 - 217616)
245  Economy / Securities / Re: S.DICE - SatoshiDICE 100% Dividend-Paying Asset on MPEx on: January 21, 2013, 04:19:06 PM
Sorry, but I do not see any serious "edge" described here. All I see is self-congratulating fan-boy talk Smiley
Lets not forget that S.DICE is operating in heavily regulated industry with out any licence. Comparing this bottom feeders business (gambling) to bottling brown sugar water that makes its drinkers fat and stupid, is a bit silly.
Nothing wrong with fan-boys happily cheering, but we all know how "to big to fail" usually works out Wink



There is actually quite a bit of regulatory pressure coming down soda producers these days.

Bloomberg et al.
246  Economy / Speculation / Re: Anyone who invested at 32.. on: January 21, 2013, 04:00:39 PM
I would place a wager that says BTC will be worth more than 35 USD before the year 2016. Obviously those who purchased significant amounts at the all time high price don't feel great right now, but it's not as if they bought facebook ipo.   

Uhh... FB is back up to $30 /share.
247  Economy / Speculation / Re: $200k buy order takes bitcoin back over $16 on: January 21, 2013, 02:48:26 AM
2am UTC and a speculator on Mt.Gox can't wait to get in...

Well, only 3,000 BTC of the bid wall came down on that buy...   There was still another 10K sitting at 15.61 and .62 for a while, still 6,000 at that price.

Very bullish.
248  Economy / Securities / Re: Own a part of a 3d printer! CREATE on [BTC-TC] on: January 19, 2013, 05:52:43 PM
I think it's a neat idea,

as with the fund, i think it's a great idea


Garr: start here. Apparently you've made 2000 posts for no benefit whatsoever, you're mentally below the average noob. Try reading 2000 posts instead, maybe that works better. "Soaring upwards" a horse's arse pfff.

Heads, people. Heads are for thinking with. Try it sometime.

Hey, cut him some slack, he is still in high school! Just learning the ropes!

http://admitmeplease.org/
249  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 253 BTC Bet that Butterfly Labs will Not Deliver an ASIC Prior to March 1st on: January 18, 2013, 04:27:58 AM
The bet is now up to 784 BTC for : 752 BTC against!
250  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis on: January 17, 2013, 01:40:17 PM
THE WHALES HAVE RETURNED!

http://satoshidice.com/lookup.php?tx=&limit=300&min_bet=10&status=ALL
251  Economy / Securities / Re: [MPEx] S.BBET BitBet IPO an astounding success on: January 14, 2013, 04:05:41 AM
Lets compare.

Betsofbitcoin

NFL Playoffs - Atlanta Falcons over the San Francisco 49ers
For 0.10, Against 0.0

NFL Playoffs - Baltimore Ravens over the New England Patriots
For 0.10, Against 0.0

bitbet.us

NFL Playoffs - San Francisco 49ers over the Atlanta Falcons
For 38.06, Against 62.04

NFL Playoffs : New England Patriots over Baltimore Ravens
For 22.04, Against 78.06


Looks like bitbet has about 1000x the volume for NFL bets.
252  Economy / Securities / Re: [MPEx] S.BBET BitBet IPO an astounding success on: January 14, 2013, 02:25:18 AM


Either way, feel free to wait 3-6 months and come back to this thread. Maybe even start a bet on which site is going to have higher volume.

As of tonight, it looks like bitbet.us now greater total BTC outstanding in bets than betsofbitco.in

253  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis on: January 13, 2013, 07:47:04 PM
Mhm, I was wondering.. is there an easy way to tell the profit per day apart from comparing it from the day before? Further, I'd like to find out if there's a way to easily check the volume per day as well.

For volume divide the difference between two time point in the red line in the zoom plot by 0.019
254  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 253 BTC Bet that Butterfly Labs will Not Deliver an ASIC Prior to March 1st on: January 13, 2013, 07:23:13 PM
Well its 275 to 256 now.

A new record?
255  Economy / Securities / Re: Why is the BitFunder SDice pass through trading so cheaply? on: January 13, 2013, 03:51:04 AM


just curious how their red line effects the mining stocks being more or less reasonably set by the market and how they prevent/expose/cull ponzi's, etc. on other markets.

Well that is an interesting question.  I don't think most MPEX account holders would be investing substantially in GLBSE trash. 

Let me ask a related question though, is the limited number of quality red line companies coupled with increasing buyer demand causing excessive valuations in existing MPEX securities?  OR are they actually undervalued, as the demand curve appears to also be following the red line?
256  Economy / Securities / Re: Why is the BitFunder SDice pass through trading so cheaply? on: January 13, 2013, 12:58:23 AM
Quote
i am curious though how mpex has killed off the stupid bullshit prices of mining 'stocks' 'bonds' whatever you wanna callem

It has to do with the direction of the exponential.  In the real world, when people buy stocks, they try to buy ones where the exponent is positive r = A*exp(x/t), like the red line.  But mining is intrinsically a negative exponent process r = A*exp((1-x)/t), like the blue line. So MPEX is winning because they carry red line companies, not blue line companies.

Also, no ponzi.

257  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: BitBet open beta. on: January 11, 2013, 10:58:56 PM
You should really get the financial statements and releases marked as free articles so that people can read more than a few of them each week.

Interesting IPO, by the way.  It was pretty obvious which guys had done their math up front, but I wasn't expecting it to get anywhere near 1.03177.

I don't think anyone did. At least not as far as I know.

Anyway: Trilema allows five free reads a week. In general this should be enough for anyone to read such announcements for free (in the average month there's the MPOE statement, that's one, and possibly a couple others such as an IPO, some tech announcement, w/e). Obviously if you use those free credits to read something else you're on the hook, but it's not really proper to say you're being asked to pay for the announcements.

I made the mistake of reading some old financial statements this week.  I guess from now on, I'll just have to make copies of them.  I thought about paying a buck for 1000 credits, but I can't find any mention anywhere of how many credits each article costs.

1 per article
 I finally caved an bought some credits with my bitbet winnings.
258  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: [ANN]First online MPEx brokerage now in public beta on: January 11, 2013, 10:57:34 PM
Like the service but manual deposits and withdrawals are really annoying and makes you less trustworthy.

How many hot wallets need to be stolen before we agree that manual withdrawls are an essential security practice?
259  Economy / Securities / Re: [MPEx] S.BBET BitBet IPO an astounding success on: January 11, 2013, 06:17:51 PM
...


'who can't afford to buy an MPEX account'...

Pay over 400 dollars to be able to bet when you can do the same at almost no cost at somewhere else?


You cannot do the same anywhere else.  The volume on that site, and the time decay structure is such that you cannot take a side on either side of an issue without shifting the odds terribly against you and/or having the expected value strongly discounted due to the time decay.  It's fine if you want to wager a coin on something, worthless if you want to hedge your mining operation.
260  Economy / Securities / Re: This is where "the community" kisses my feet. Again. on: January 11, 2013, 01:27:38 PM
The worse is that Erik can anytime dump milions of shares if he decides to sell some more  Cool

Not true. There is a 30 day lockup after the IPO sells out.  The anonymous investor could sell additional shares of the 90MM not yet on the market only after the lockup ends.

So, investors are still safe until 30 days after IPO sells? What a relief  Grin

Whether they sell more shares or not is irrelevant; the shares cannot be diluted. The most they can sell is 40 more million shares.

The question is if there's a market for additional 40 million shares at IPO prices. Definitely not.  Grin And if SD becomes less profitable and Erik will dump those 40 million to the market, investors are screwed. The SD shares are ridiculously overpriced at this time. Really.

Would suggest you read the prospectus - he can't just dump them at a low price.

LOL, maybe YOU should read the prospectus yourself again and show me where it states he cannot dump more shares on market  Cool In the contract on MPEX the only thing what somehow hinders selling more shares is the 30 day period after IPO shares are sold which AFAIK is over.


You don't know much then, can even read a simple price chart.  IPO shares sold out Jan. 5th 2013.

Read the text. 
"The representatives of SatoshiDice warrant that no further shares will be offered by them for a period of 30 days from the date these offered shares are sold."

Does it say "from the date the shares are offered?"  No, its says from "from the date these offered shares are sold."

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