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301  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis on: December 12, 2012, 09:53:58 PM
These bursts of high volume started the day after Erik came back from his meeting in Macau with casino owners.  Maybe casinos there are doing some robustness testing? It's pocket change for them.
302  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis on: December 12, 2012, 07:43:07 PM
HOLY SHIT!
303  Other / Off-topic / Re: MPEX/MPOE-PR on: December 11, 2012, 12:10:16 AM
I have an amusing theory.  Only a theory, but one consistent with the known facts.

MP doesn't own any Giga bonds.

Let's look at the known facts:

MP bought a bunch of Giga
MP ran a pass-through based on those bonds
MP was apparently not making any profit from those bonds (claimed by MPOE-PR) other than any extra custom it brought in MPEX' direction.
MP had a very low opinion of securitiess on GLBSE and of GLBSE itself - and actively sought opportunities to short them.

So isn't the obvious scenario that those giga bonds were sold on the market and the pass-through effectively acted as a short on them with the following benefits over a 'normal' short:

No expiry date or means for the short to be recalled/expired.
No premium paid on dividends or up-front.

With the upgrade pending to teramining there was no conceivable way this could fail to profitable - as the pass-through obviously wouldn't upgrade and then the bonds would sink to near zero value (and cost to mantain) and could be bought back on the market at bargain-basement prices and the issue closed out.

Only way this could possibly go wrong is if for some unforeseen reason there was suddenly a requirement to prove ownership.  And that's what just happened.

There's no way to PROVE this is what happened if MP claims he hasn't even registered a claim with GLBSE - that is until the total bonds claimed gets so near to the actual outstanding ones that there's no longer enough unclaimed yet to cover the ones supposedly held by MPEX.

Using the pass-through as a means to short makes a lot of sense.  It's consistent with all the known facts.  But is it the truth?  I don't know - but it's an amusing theory if nothing else.  And of course it's very easy to disprove (if untrue) - just needs MP to submit an email/BTC address to GLBSE and have Giga confirm that the correct number of bonds is associated with that address.


I'm sure this theory is true. A spammer is always a scammer.

Even if that theory is true it doesn't of itself make it a scam.  It would only have been a scam if the contract wasn't honoured - e.g. if the contract stated the Giga bonds had to be kept (rather than just paying out to mirror the performance of actual bonds).  It'd be like running a fixed-rate mining bond without actual hardware - same benefit (a loss) for investors and less hassle/similar profit for the operator.  Nothing intrinsically scammy about it - obviously then stopping paying dividends/deleting the asset data is a different issue: as that implies actual possession of the Giga bonds (as if they'd been shorted and the contract was for "benefits equivalent to" rather than "benefits from" then there'd be no reason to stop paying if GLBSE got closed, giga got adbucted by aliens or whatever).

I think you are on the right track here.  MP definitely wanted to short the piss out of any GLBSE asset.  Also the total number of F.GIGA.ETF shares available on the market was over 900,000 (which was the original IPO level).  I know because I tried to corner the market but ran out of funds around 1.2M shares. The question is, was this term of the contract violated "The Owner will never own less shares of the underlying than the total float of this asset implies."

304  Other / Off-topic / Re: MPEX/MPOE-PR on: December 10, 2012, 11:03:17 PM
I'll chime in here because prior to the collapse, I owned over 1,000,000 F.GIGA.ETF shares. Once the upgrade path was clarified by MP in #bitcoin-assets, I immediately sold them all at a 35% loss, only to see them bounce again as more people bought in without thinking.

MP was direct and upfront about the terms of the contract when asked.  I made the wrong assumption and paid for it. Was I pissed, yes!  But, I didn't do standard due diligence.  I don't think I was scammed, I think I was stupid for not asking questions about how the security would operate in a situation that was outside of the cases presented in the contract, PRIOR to making my investment.

This is a similar situation. People bought in hoping to exchange them for a major profit because the price was highly depressed, but didn't do their homework first.  All you had to do was do the smallest bit of research into F.GIGA.ETF prior to pulling the trigger on your purchase. If you didn't, SOLD TO YOU.

There is no scam here. Just a representation of the classic situation in all real-world finance.  If you can't figure out who the sucker is in the room, it's you. Buyers screwed themselves by not doing DD.  MPEx is the only exchange I have any confidence in and if MP gets a scammer tag, this forum is really clueless.

305  Economy / Securities / Re: 16 future contracts now trading on MPEx. on: December 10, 2012, 03:08:31 PM
Great to see that some form of futures trading has been implemented!
306  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis on: December 07, 2012, 01:28:08 PM
Shocked
Nice write up and explanation!

Still wish I could understand how the damn site works. Ive placed a bid once, recently and never new if I won anything or if I lost anything or even how I get my coins if i won



It should just show up in your wallet as the expected payout if a win or about 0.005 btc if a loss.  I'm still waiting for the S.DICE divendeds to make up for all the BTC I have lost trying stupid betting techniques on that site (27 losses in a row at less than 8000 compounding at 1.2x =  Cry )
307  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis on: December 07, 2012, 01:13:14 PM
Great analysis doog.  It might be time to put that 1.8% line back on the plot!

Law of averages finally catching up.

308  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Hosting company on: December 02, 2012, 06:58:20 PM
http://polimedia.us/bitcoin/mpex.php?mpsic=S.BVPS
309  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Hosting company on: December 02, 2012, 06:45:33 PM
http://www.bitvps.com
310  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis on: December 02, 2012, 05:26:55 PM
There are 701 unpaid bets, lots of which are wins for the players, so this graph likely isn't really correct.  I only plot confirmed wins.

Oldest unpaid bets:

Code:
385462787187f5d812e5c87cedfeb63d6f78c184f8a1f37e40926672cd5c6bd7   0 210340 14:39:45 Nov-30-12         0.03000000 1dice6DP 116FTtZHst3LvsyKmv5EEUngUHrsvSpLi6
fb09be89099f196780d5bec7babe583c922c0efbe120e80ac4c46ed085a992ae   1 210340 14:39:45 Nov-30-12         0.00100000 1dice3jk 1EXrMXZ3BAbKdKtRHHSgk6GS2VRNrDqBB9
1e97214eb9ff6ac9d534d80921e7a8129c0fcc8f94410b6a82edc9a75aa14129   1 210340 14:39:45 Nov-30-12         0.00300000 1dice8EM 1JuSMg2PXrc2bapyZw1ZsijFsADBEhXLev
b70c99a64d2ac2257e5030697f97dc76e13d94ee72406a25b73c6c7e7addfb98   1 210342 14:57:27 Nov-30-12         0.00100000 1dice3jk 1DBpUi7kbxXtQtiDT8pkyHVzgoJBTZyhdE
d5e084a366f879613a518701991a54934774d924cf7e77e8f4e33e5ffdb15af0   1 210342 14:57:27 Nov-30-12         0.00100000 1dice3jk 1Dq2FGPR5cAGRtmFtDutDm1nZPn7crkaEi
21bd32f1c6dee329aab6629b81989c3484eea55b70a25f51f4b72385c85e0b7e   1 210344 15:14:54 Nov-30-12         0.00100000 1dice3jk 19VosrEQxvWBnPwzcjAPS9tEW9GjhQjdLG
8d50b5f4be7e8439c0b56c36fec765106210fade3f09d0ad5044bd54c8d73aff   1 210349 15:32:18 Nov-30-12         0.00100000 1dice3jk 1EhQYF71HnS9kXbrSD1GJosbkoaTCiFyFA
<snip>
So there arn't that many unpaid bets leftover from November?

It looks to me that the unknown bets from 11-27 and 11-28 disappeared without confirmation.  But I'm not certain.
311  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis on: December 02, 2012, 02:38:58 AM
Check it out...  Now there are a bunch of HUGE wins that are all showing up as UNKNOWN.

http://satoshidice.com/lookup.php?tx=&limit=1000&min_bet=10&status=ALL

And I THINK the UNKNOWN losses from 11-28 have now confirmed.


Check that, I think they disappeared.   Sure hope the 1000s of BTC in wins that are currently listed as UNKNOWN also disappear Shocked
312  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis on: December 02, 2012, 02:32:10 AM
Check it out...  Now there are a bunch of HUGE wins that are all showing up as UNKNOWN.

http://satoshidice.com/lookup.php?tx=&limit=1000&min_bet=10&status=ALL

And I THINK the UNKNOWN losses from 11-28 have now confirmed.
313  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis on: November 30, 2012, 06:02:53 PM
Now those bets are listed as UNKNOWN....  Hmmm....   1500 BTC in profit disappearing into the UNKNOWN.
314  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis on: November 29, 2012, 07:10:29 PM
Hmm... I'm going based on the data on this page

http://satoshidice.com/lookup.php?tx=&limit=1000&min_bet=4&status=ALL

Everything from block 210017 on, looks like bet amount was 8272 payment amount of 6827.  This is including large blocks of PENDING transactions from 24 hours ago where 18pEcNu lost many many bitcoins.  Do you only count CONFIRMED transactions?  Why are all these older losses still pending?  Has this address figured out how to block losses from appearing in the block chain, or is there a bug?

315  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis on: November 29, 2012, 05:47:46 PM
Looks like a very good day for S.DICE... my excel sheet of over 1BTC bets made since your last chart is showing an additional 1500BTC profit.  Can it be true or did I mess something up? Shocked
316  Economy / Scam Accusations / Re: Nefario on: November 18, 2012, 08:01:24 PM
An engineer who worked in Sun microsystems, suddenly quit it & started teaching English in China, came to know Bitcoins, founded GLBSE.
It doesn't fit anywhere.

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Satoshi_Nakamoto
Quote
It's very attractive to the libertarian viewpoint if we can explain it properly. I'm better with code than with words though.
Many criticized, Nefario's London speech.

Let me save you some time:

casascius = satoshi

No... It's Michael Clear.  Best evidence I ever read.

http://cryptome.org/0005/bitcoin-who.pdf

317  Economy / Securities / Re: The reasons why Bitcoin securities canít be regulated by the SEC on: October 06, 2012, 09:44:40 PM
Great find burnside!  Makes me sweat a little less Smiley
318  Economy / Scam Accusations / Re: Nefario on: October 06, 2012, 02:18:55 AM
When Nefario blackmailed me & the IceHill team by saying he'd unlock our securities if we allowed a swap option, he kept writing "equity steak." I've never forgiven him for repeatedly writing "steak" -- if nothing else, he needs a scammer tag for that.

inb4 "oh, look who's talking!"

(ETA: Fwiw, Nefario's been pretty helpful with me in solving problems since then)

where is the like the post button?
319  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] BDK.BND (1%/week) *IN DEFAULT* on: October 06, 2012, 01:26:49 AM
KLUDGE ITS YOUR LUCKY DAY!

320  Economy / Marketplace / Re: MPEx goes live! on: October 05, 2012, 09:29:54 PM
I have a serious question: why is an account so expensive? Why do people make accounts if creating accounts costs so much?

Because they have enough bitcoins to invest to pay the account fee after one month of 1-3% dividends?
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