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361  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis on: September 19, 2012, 12:45:05 PM
I notice that the less than 3000 is a consistent loser for Satoshidice. I wonder why that is? Perhaps someone has found a very good strategy that works with a 21x multiplier. If you notice, the max bet for less than 3000 is actually smaller than the max bet for less than 2000. In all other cases the max bet goes up (or stays at max 250) as the multiplier decreases.

LOL better strategy.

Best strat is don't play. Second best is max bet one time.

Given the number of bet odds subsets, and the total number of
Bets, odds are at least one of the subsets is a loser for s.dice, for now.  This is why you can only use pre declared subgroups in your analysis of treatment efficacy durin clinical trials. This is a great case study in how Post-hoc analysis can mislead.

But by all means, please bet a lot on less than 3000
362  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis on: September 19, 2012, 01:35:11 AM
Looks like the whale is back...

 Shocked

Details   Processed   Bet   Bet Tx   Pay Tx   Address   Pay Status   Bet Amount   Result   Payment Amount   Lucky

Details   2012-09-19 01:25:23   lessthan 16000   fb661670   2e1996bc   13D2n1t   PENDING   215.00000000   LOSE   1.07450000   48127
Details   2012-09-19 01:24:54   lessthan 16000   244cebac   b1f67a09   13D2n1t   PENDING   215.00000000   LOSE   1.07450000   18188
Details   2012-09-19 01:23:42   lessthan 16000   b40f7d11   6034716a   13D2n1t   PENDING   200.00000000   LOSE   0.99950000   47050
Details   2012-09-19 01:17:19   lessthan 32000   115490cb   ebd0c021   13D2n1t   CONFIRMED   250.00000000   WIN   500.96150000   14107
Details   2012-09-19 01:16:41   lessthan 32000   65ea1a91   870ffbbb   13D2n1t   CONFIRMED   250.00000000   LOSE   1.24950000   44256
Details   2012-09-19 01:12:33   lessthan 32000   b29497f9   eeb59a7f   13D2n1t   CONFIRMED   250.00000000   WIN   500.96150000   31353
Details   2012-09-19 01:11:10   lessthan 32000   3b0ea5c5   fe1e1638   13D2n1t   CONFIRMED   250.00000000   WIN   500.96150000   3830
Details   2012-09-19 01:10:44   lessthan 32000   e7a84423   faa8fe0e   13D2n1t   CONFIRMED   250.00000000   LOSE   1.24950000   52194
Details   2012-09-19 01:09:46   lessthan 32000   020b54e2   2389fe72   13D2n1t   CONFIRMED   250.00000000   LOSE   1.24950000   63716
Details   2012-09-18 21:46:20   lessthan 32000   5fad9ea9   8a4e89ee   13D2n1t   CONFIRMED   250.00000000   WIN   500.96150000   7141
Details   2012-09-18 21:36:34   lessthan 32000   a725220c   76e0b2f1   13D2n1t   CONFIRMED   250.00000000   WIN   500.96150000   29321
Details   2012-09-18 21:35:02   lessthan 32000   a9883ae2   cfbc0b9e   13D2n1t   CONFIRMED   250.00000000   WIN   500.96150000   12317
Details   2012-09-18 21:34:12   lessthan 32000   7ae48528   56db31c8   13D2n1t   CONFIRMED   250.00000000   LOSE   1.24950000   40164
Details   2012-09-18 21:33:35   lessthan 32000   a6405952   5aa2e924   13D2n1t   CONFIRMED   250.00000000   LOSE   1.24950000   54229


http://blockchain.info/address/13D2n1tA6oJ56EG7SkzSsG9zEwwfo1v63k

363  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: What to invest in on the GLBSE? on: September 16, 2012, 03:32:11 PM
Although if you are going to be putting up any serious coin (>100 BTC) I recommend MPEx instead. High account fee but lower margins, higher liquidity, higher quality listings and more security.
364  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: What to invest in on the GLBSE? on: September 16, 2012, 03:20:56 PM
Make a spreadsheet, calculate the Mh/share, calc expected return with network growth.

Fpgaminig or gigamining for miners.  Gsdpt for other stuff
365  Economy / Services / Re: Chess Analysis on: September 14, 2012, 07:58:22 PM
What is your FIDE rating?
366  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Minified GLBSE Web Interface on: September 14, 2012, 06:18:54 PM
It would be cool to have an entire exchange ticker stream updated whenever there is a trade executed, or a change in the spread of a security.
367  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Minified GLBSE Web Interface on: September 14, 2012, 06:01:46 PM
Nice looking and faster than GLBSE!

What's your bit coin address, I'll toss you some coin if I end up actually using it more than the regualr interface.
368  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] BTC-Mining on: September 13, 2012, 10:23:33 PM
I guess you havent ordered yet the rig, Namworld. Isnt it wise to do so, before the waiting list is extremely long ?

The waiting list is already long and the product is still vaporware. Optimal strategy is probably to keep the capital paying dividends until shipping actually starts, then place the order.
369  Economy / Services / Re: Gigamining / Teramining on: September 12, 2012, 02:44:48 PM
What is the trigger for the timing of the bond exchange?

To all Gigaminers:

I think the final terms will be:

  • 22.5% Mh/s per bond (this is 90% of 25Mh/s)
  • The cost per bond upgrade will be set at .29 BTC per Gigamining bond

If anyone does not like this deal, you can always take the free upgrade and go buy your own BFL equipment.

The new contract for Teramining is going to be a bit more robust than the current Gigamining contract and will also include:

  • A minimum buy back amount. The contract will set a minimum that I can buy back the Teramining bonds for in BTC. I have yet to figure out what this amount should be but with 160k bonds issued, it will be low.
  • A maximum profit potential. The contract will stipulate that if dividends for Teramining exceed a certain threshold, the contract will be considered completed and all bonds may be recalled without repurchase. I have yet to set the amount for this also. This figure will however be higher than the highest trading price of Gigamining + the cost for upgrading to Teramining to make sure all parties have made BTC on the deal.

If you have any feedback on these, please post your comments.

Best,
gigavps

370  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: So when are we going to look into really finding Pirate? on: September 12, 2012, 02:10:31 AM
He doesn't have 500k in BTC. lol

He has nothing. It's a ponzi scheme, so all funds get paid out as interest payments until he can no longer get new funds and they dry up, ponzi goes bust, he disappears.

You could sue each other to claw back interest payments, since it was probably your money who went to everybody else. There's nothing left to recover. Madoff had nothing to show for his $50+ billion ponzi.



So then who owned the bitcoin address that had 500k coins in it and then started shipping coins off in large chunks to many other addresses after the scheme broke down?  Total # of coins exchange could be >>500k with 500 being the peak when all the cash out reqs happened.
371  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] Gamma SatoshiDICE Pass Through on: September 11, 2012, 02:49:32 PM
I am happy to report that DeaDterra has rolled over my shares from GSDPT to S.DICE with no trouble.  Took a little less than one day to complete the transfer.  I'm a satisfied customer.

372  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis on: September 11, 2012, 01:19:52 PM
If you worked out the 25%, 50% and 75% quantiles for the amounts bet, you'd have 3 lines representing equal number of four equal groups of amounts bet. Might provide some insight, might not be worth it if it's a hassle.

Sounds interesting, but confused.

If I understand you, I'd have lines for (0-25%, 25-50%, 50-75%, 75-100%, and total) - that's 5 lines.  Is that what you mean?

Yes. I wasn't including "total" as a quantile line. If having too many lines make the chart confused, you could keep the two constituent lines you use currently, just define them as quantiles rather than bet amounts which could become less informative if bets become much larger or smaller.

That seems reasonable
373  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis on: September 10, 2012, 04:47:52 PM
If you worked out the 25%, 50% and 75% quantiles for the amounts bet, you'd have 3 lines representing equal number of four equal groups of amounts bet. Might provide some insight, might not be worth it if it's a hassle.

Sounds interesting, but confused.

If I understand you, I'd have lines for (0-25%, 25-50%, 50-75%, 75-100%, and total) - that's 5 lines.  Is that what you mean?

I don't really see how this would be interesting. We know variance is = on a per bet basis.  Why clutter up the plot?  Monthly returns would be convenient though.
374  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis on: September 10, 2012, 02:08:26 PM
I would love to see a daily / monthly cumulative summary, rather than have to mentally subtract.  Really great stats. Thank you.
375  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis on: September 10, 2012, 02:07:09 AM
Waiting with baited breath here....  Looking good for S.DICE.


Details   Processed   Bet   Bet Tx   Pay Tx   Address   Pay Status   Bet Amount   Result   Payment Amount   Lucky
Details   2012-09-09 09:19:15   lessthan 32768   f929ed09   3b593c96   1GfNLFR   CONFIRMED   250.00000000   LOSE   1.24950000   38865
Details   2012-09-09 09:18:17   lessthan 32768   ddee6c44   8e708c3a   1CuSocm   CONFIRMED   250.00000000   LOSE   1.24950000   39847
Details   2012-09-09 08:25:38   lessthan 32768   cb0bade6   9cebdce6   1GfNLFR   CONFIRMED   250.00000000   LOSE   1.24950000   52930
                2012-09-09 18:58:39   lessthan 32768   16fd63a7   bd95365f   1GLo8r8   CONFIRMED   228.00000000   LOSE   1.13950000   62461
Details   2012-09-09 18:58:16   lessthan 32768   f3cb00db   ccaf24f9   1HUNJro   CONFIRMED   228.00000000   LOSE   1.13950000   44029
Details   2012-09-09 18:57:47   lessthan 32768   998d719b   cdff948c   1KyT7MF   CONFIRMED   228.00000000   LOSE   1.13950000   35421
376  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Personal responsiblity and the Ponzi scam. on: September 09, 2012, 12:19:18 PM
+1 Sticky
377  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis on: September 09, 2012, 11:56:20 AM
 Shocked I guess I will not be adding to my holdings till the next dividend period.
378  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Forget Quantum computer - This can come earlier on: September 08, 2012, 09:08:49 PM
reading of 1 nucleotide takes 1 hour on the fastest machines. You will need to read more than one nucleotide :-)

damnit, ok then make the bacterium that finds a solution not mark itself, but instead produce some huge molecule we can actually see using a microscope and encode the nonce into that somehow.


I think the fastest approaches are quite a bit faster than 1 nucleotide an hour.

http://www.helicosbio.com/Portals/0/Documents/Helicos%20tSMS%20Technology%20Primer.pdf

DNA oligos are pretty good at picking out single sequences from a big mess of others.  I'm not that familiar with the computation we are trying to do here, if someone could explain the search space we would need to look in, we could have a discussion on the feasibility of using DNA to find the needle in the haystack.

For example, if you are searching for a known sequence that can be encoded in 25 base pairs (50 bits) and either is, or is not present in a soup of random sequences bound to a glass surface, IN THEORY you could fluorescently tag a complementary oligo, wash it over the surface, wash unbound material off, and check for the presence of a fluorescent dot somewhere on the surface.  IN THEORY.  In practice, noise, dust, etc would make that approach difficult, but there may be work arounds.

379  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: sealswithclubs on: September 08, 2012, 08:56:37 PM
They make money on the rake.  If nobody is playing, no money being made. If they play a few tables to give people action, then they make more money. No need to cheat to do so.  And I think I'm net positive playing against them, and I'm not that good at poker.
380  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Forget Quantum computer - This can come earlier on: September 08, 2012, 08:36:23 PM
Academics have issues with Venter's attitude, not his results.  He knows how to spot talented people and ideas and get the funding to make them happen. Celera's shotgun sequencing really pushed the Human Genome Project forward and basically beat the academic team (though assembly would not have been possible without the high quality scaffold already generated by the project).  The sequencing of the sargasso sea was also a great and  fascinating idea and yielded red-Channelrhodopsins from Volvox and probably much more I don't know about.

I tried to get the guy who invented shotgun sequencing to buy some bitcoins. He was all about amassing gold and shorting the Euro though. His loss. :-P
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