My single biggest reason for pricing a MR500 today at $150K is that this rig
cost $30K/3 = $10K each back when BTC was about $10. This 500GH mini
rig cost 1,000 BTC.
Past Opportunity Cost
=====================================================
To truly be made whole from an opportunity cost standpoint, a JUN/12
1.5TH/s mini rig purchaser would need to recover 1,000 BTC equivalent
for each 500GH/s mini rig. At today's prices those 1,000 BTC would be
$110K.
Future Opportunity Cost
=====================================================
Now a 500GH/s mini rig purchaser needs to decide whether there is a
future opportunity cost they may be giving up by selling their rig. Who
knows? Maybe a number of good things all happen coincidentally? What if
BTC goes to $500 each? What if Avalon drops the ball? What if KNC is
late by 6 months? What if? What if? What if?
Giving up the mini rig means giving up a future of being able to mine BTC
effectively (or at least better than the majority of the rest of the miners).
If BTC went to $ 5,000 each and mini rig still could mine 0.1 BTC/day, it
would continue to be a windfall.
To me, that means Giga wants to recover his past opportunity cost and
give some allowance to lost future opportunity cost. To him, that represents
fair. If someone wishes to relieve Giga of his past + future opportunity and
absorb that risk themselves, then someone will click the BUY IT NOW button.
Disclaimer: I have a mini rig pre-order myself though much further down the
time line. I am a geek engineer that would need a LOT of persuasion to give
up the opportunity to hash at 1.5TH/s.
Edit: By the way, these are just my opinions. I do not speak for Giga in any
way. Further, I do not mean this as some sort of lecture. It was just a
possible definition of "fair value" from a seller's perspective.
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