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1  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: www.bitstamp.net - owner has denied your access to the site. on: November 19, 2013, 05:14:29 PM
If quoting South Park was their intention, that is a truly panic inducing 404 page.  
2  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Four Phases of Bitcoin Growth on: November 18, 2013, 05:35:56 AM
Hello all,

As I've been enjoying the recent rally, I've been trying to think about the big picture to keep from getting an itchy sell finger.

I think there are four phases of growth of bitcoin, from its creation to mass adoption. Here they are and the price ranges for each.

Phase 1. Libertarian Utopians and Techno-Geeks.
Price range: 0 to $250.
Explanation: These are the very early adopters, mostly comprised of two types of people (somewhat overlapping): idealistic folks who believe in the cryptocurrency movement as a way to reduce the power of government and the corrupt banking establishment, and software/web developers and others who are way ahead of the curve on studying and adopting revolutionary new technologies.
Timeline: This phase ended in the spring/summer of 2013.

Phase 2. Hedge Funds and Accredited Investors
Price range: $250 to $2,000.
Explanation: Starting in fall 2013, when bitcoin was in the $100s and $200s, the Bitcoin Investment Trust launched on Second Market, enabling high-net-worth investors to invest in bitcoin more easily and with less risk, through a credible fund. We can expect this kind of investment to keep increasing as more smart money flows in and bitcoin goes up in value over the next several months. Meanwhile, wealthy people in other countries, especially China, are also getting in, since they don't have as many investment opportunities there compared to Americans. This will sustain the momentum. There could be big corrections during this phase, but probably not any huge crashes anymore like what we saw in 2011 and early 2013 -- unless the government steps in and tries to over-regulate bitcoin or some major countries ban it. However, expect there to be at least some increase in government regulation as the big money players will want this because it would be bullish for their investment (i.e. making a safer environment for bitcoin to become part of the mainstream financial landscape). Some of the uber-libertarian types may take their profits and get out in this phase, as they discover that bitcoin is not going to be a way to overthrow the government, but instead that making money will take precedence over ideological motives for most people involved in bitcoin from this stage onward.
Timeline: This phase began in mid to late 2013 and will continue until the first bitcoin ETF is launched on the mainstream stock market, perhaps sometime before the end of 2014.

Phase 3. Ordinary Investors
Price range: $2,000 to $10,000.
Explanation: When the first bitcoin ETF is approved and available for trading on the New York Stock Exchange or Nasdaq -- most likely the Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust -- that will be like bitcoin's IPO. It will enable the average person to feel comfortable buying bitcoin in a way they are familiar with, i.e. through their mainstream online brokerage account, and they will be able to use their 401(k) funds to do so. This will open up a huge amount of new capital to flow into bitcoin, driving up the price by several more times in only one or two years. Bitcoin will be marketed to ordinary investors as "the new gold," a "digital gold" which is a better store of value than the traditional metal, and it will likely capture an ever-increasing market share of investors looking for an alternative to gold, for a few percent of their portfolio. It's quite likely that at some point in this phase we'll switch to using mBTC (millibitcoins) as the unit, because this will make it easier for people psychologically to invest smaller amounts of money and will set the stage for more user-friendly and widespread use of bitcoin in commerce.
Timeline: This phase probably starts sometime in 2014 and goes at least a couple of years.

Phase 4. Mass Adoption for Commerce
Price range: Something over $10,000. Who knows how much higher it goes, but eventually it will level off and grow more slowly.
Explanation: Once bitcoin has established itself as a totally mainstream investment and store of value, owned by hundreds of millions of people, and the price growth has slowed down to something less than a "hot tech stock" and more like a steady 10-20% increase per year, then people will start using bitcoin en masse for commercial transactions. Of course at this point the transactions will be in mBTC, since BTC would be extremely cumbersome by then for making normal purchases (people will prefer a unit that is closer to the value of a dollar or a euro, rather than dealing with amounts like 0.0001 to buy a book on Amazon or whatever). I suspect that mass use of bitcoin for commerce won't really materialize until the phases of rapid price gain have ended -- until then, bitcoin will be for hoarding, as a premier store-of-value asset. But eventually the point of saturation will be reached and people will feel like the era of massive gains are over and they'll feel more comfortable actually spending bitcoin.
Timeline: This phase will probably start anywhere from 2015 to 2018, depending on many factors -- and assuming that everything goes according to the outline above in the previous phases, without any major bumps in the road.

So, what do you think of this phase-by-phase prediction?

This captures my thoughts almost exactly; I just never got the chance to type it all out.  I'm sure the people currently pouring money into the exchanges right now expect a similar timeline to play out.  When I first bought in I always felt as though phase 2 was many years away instead of 500 or so days, and that phase 4 was at least a decade out.  Your timeline compresses the timeline that was originally in my head by half, which I'm liking a lot lol.  Anyways thanks for the post!
3  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Block Erupter USB - Overclocking/ hacking ? on: September 08, 2013, 06:59:28 AM
I'll be dammed - it WORKED  Grin 

447 MH/s using bitminter just like in the guide.  Wasn't sure what the icarus timing parameters in bfgminer ought to be set to, and cgminer didn't seem to want to see it, but at this point I'm just glad I didn't mess up the rework job. 

Instead of mining with more hashing power, I like to think of this as mining at the previous difficulty level  Shocked

Considering my lack of experience working with SMDs, I basically needed this thread and the tutorial to pull this off.  So thanks everyone! 
4  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Block Erupter USB - Overclocking/ hacking ? on: September 03, 2013, 06:07:20 AM
As I stated before a tutorial on how to upgrade your erupters to 447 Mh/s be advised this is my first tutorial. and I want to thank all the hard work that went into me being able to complete this by everybody here. please send all feedback as a pm as if you find something totally fucked up about my tut I can correct it and reupload a better version. I hope this helps noobs like me do this mod and best of luck mining.

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0BzJZeR-W87vKa2xXc0VkZVhnYnc/edit?usp=sharing

Thanks for compiling all that information!  Although yeah some of the links for items aren't working for me, I was able to google stuff that should work and finally came up with a bill of materials after browsing every page in this thread.  I'll definitely leave a tip once I pull this off.  
5  Bitcoin / Group buys / Re: [OPEN]Group Buy#9 ASICMINER Erupter USB Miner 0.31 BTC Or Less USA/INTERNATIONAL on: August 23, 2013, 02:00:25 AM
Thanks for the updates SSB.  My friend and I can't wait to get our hands on these!
6  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: USB block erupters are now useless. $5 - $7 each. on: August 20, 2013, 07:01:17 AM
The good news is the USB hubs and fans used for these should keep their value pretty well.  They could serve whatever USB miner comes next.  Or make it so the user will never be hot or looking for USB ports again  Grin
7  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Number of bitcoins lost forever on: April 12, 2013, 04:16:17 AM
I like how no one's mentioned that 0.00000000001 BTC can't even be formed.  That's a fraction of a satoshi  Roll Eyes
8  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Wallet Transaction Fees - From A Newbie on: April 12, 2013, 04:04:29 AM
I think for what you're trying to do you can simply not pay the fee and be ok; the only thing that would happen is it'd take longer for your transaction to go through. 
9  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Today's DDOS / MT.GOX manipulation observation on: April 11, 2013, 03:35:04 AM
sorry for copy and paste from the senior forums, but just wanted to throw in this statement with impressing numbers from mt. gox facebook page (35 min ago):
https://www.facebook.com/MtGox
Quote
Hi everyone, just a quick update on the situation and what happened last night.

First of all we would like to reassure you but no we were not last night victim of a DDoS but instead victim of our own success!

Indeed the rather astonishing amount of new account opened in the last few days added to the existing one plus the number of trade made a huge impact on the overall system that started to lag. As expected in such situation people started to panic, started to sell Bitcoin in mass (Panic Sale) resulting in an increase of trade that ultimately froze the trade engine!

To give you an idea of how impressive things were here are some numbers that we would love to share with you guys:
- The number of trades executed triple in the last 24hrs.
- The number of new account opened went from 60k for March alone to 75k new account created for the first few days of April! We now have roughly 20,000 new accounts created each day.

Due to these facts we have been busy working on improving things since last week and our team has been working around the clock to improve Mt.Gox to catch up with the demand. We will continue to release several updates today and in the coming few days to improve our system overall performance.

Also please note that we may have to close the exchange for two hours in the next 12 to 24hrs to add several new servers to our system.

Thank you for your understanding and continuous support!

I'm curious about the coming months with 75k traders throwing their money on the market, in combination with the big impact on the media and the current situation in europe.
(Slowenia seems to be the next shaky candidate and cyprus perhaps have to sell their gold reserves) 
looks like the rough times have just begun.

Thanks for pointing this out, it might have slipped past me otherwise.  When I first read that I thought they said they were going to be closing for 12 to 24 hours lol.  Then again with how well the service was functioning the past day, they may as well have been closed that long. 
10  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: BTC and LTC cartoon on: April 06, 2013, 07:26:03 PM
While I'm in the camp that's convinced that BTC is superior, if LTC's price increase is part of a pump and dump and Bitcoin isn't, what is the scenario that causes people to abandon LTC en masse?  Is it just the security risks waitingforpizza mentioned rearing their ugly head some time down the road?
11  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Introduce yourself :) on: April 02, 2013, 07:48:46 PM
Hi,

I've been following bitcoin for about a year and a half now, and I'm happy to see all the attention it's been getting lately.  I've been stuck for months on a problem related to my poor choice to encrypt a wallet that I believe was created from a 0.4.x client using a more recent version.  Attempting to send the coin that's in the wallet results in the error, "Transaction creation failed."  The bitcoin that is stuck in this wallet is now worth a non-trivial amount, so I intend on getting some posting done here and seeing if anyone can help in the tech support forum. 
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