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1141  Economy / Speculation / Re: Hello cryptoworld after few months and bitcoin price is around $4000(!) on: December 03, 2018, 01:20:10 AM
Looks like Tone Vays(if you know him) is quite bullish right now though...
Thank you for the video.

Heard him for the first time. Following the youTube celebrities (no disrespect) make me confuse however I find DataDash reasonable. These people are more into making money by selling their courses/contents.

Well, yea. While they do make money through their courses or referral links, I wouldn't count them out immediately. I'd prefer people to make money through making courses that teach technical analysis and referral links of reputable exchanges and trading tools rather than people selling access to those scammy "trading signals" group.

Also, yes. I think DataDash is good too.

if a youtuber is selling courses. usually they are not successful trading. thus have to make secondary income from youtube.
if a youtuber is selling courses. usually they are not successful trading or youtube so they have to sell courses.

a good way to spot a bad youtube trader
1. when they talk. they only talk about a line THEY hand drew on a chart where they just chose 2 points and drew a line.
these people are not Technical Analysts. they are what i cal Trend Anals
2. if they then use media as their non market external data

good and proper TA use:
UTXO movements/stats
mining hashrate
mining costs
coins moved per block
arbitrage data

so if you see a youtuber just looking at a btc<>usd chart and drawing a line and mentioning 'back in 2013'.. unfollow them
1142  Economy / Speculation / Re: "Buy the dip" is only a strategy for losers on: December 03, 2018, 12:53:23 AM

First let me ask question about the dip which you wrote about: How do you measure the chart and trend in order to find  dippest price?

Trying to catch dip before entering position is like hope to catch train exactly when it leaves. What if next price discovery gonna to fool everyone with fake breakouts for several years... I trade for living and i know how it feels to predict market with tools everyone knows about it. I also hope bitcoin and all other altcoins will find stable way to grow healthy no like 400% in single bar  of  daily chart.

if you were an actual trader for a living, then you should know by now to not use market tools everyone else uses. you should also know not to use market data to look for trends.
there are many other things involved outside market data that affect market price.

if your just looking at market data. you are just looking at the "conclusions" not the triggers. by the time you react to market data. the market has already done what it wanted. just looking at market data is just trending the sheep. then reacting to only market movements is just being a sheep, moving because another sheep moved.

its like when institutional investers shout out buy. its because they already have. and now they want the sheep in on the buy game so the institutions can get the sheep to pump so the institutions can sell. thats right when an institution shouts out buy. its because the institution is ready to sell.

finding the triggers and baselines
its like gold. your better suited to find out how much gold miners are mining gold at to learn the bottomline line cost of gold
EG if gold cost $900 to mine. prices would circling around the $900 area.
if it cost $1. prices would be circling the $1 area

because if its cheaper to mine gold to buy it. people will. if its cheaper to buy gold than mine it. people will
why waste diesel on excavators and sluice machines if you can get gold cheaper than mining costs.
why waste investors money buying gold if you can get gold cheaper using diesel on excavators and sluice machines

there is a equilibrium. people are always trying to find the cheapest way to get an asset.
so gold markets circle the mining cost.
bitcoin markets circle the mining cost.

yes there is speculative layer. but im not talking about how to find the next ATH or the next speculative bubble, im talking about the bottomline waterlevel not the waves and tsunamis and bubbles above the waterline.

look to mining costs to find the underlying water level

with all that said
the real foolish notions:
buy@FOMO (hype upward moments)
buy the tipdip (right after the speculative bubble high starts to dip)

best time to buy is at the correction(back near the baseline)

next bit of advice. split up your basket of funds into several baskets. never put your eggs into one basket.
if you have $10k. break it up into 5-10 orders.
make an order. buy. then sell and only sell for a couple %. dont HODL for months waiting for that 100% jump
take a couple % a day and repeat
if the price doesnt go up by 1%  and just stagnates. then fine. you still have 4-9 other baskets of funds to take advantage of other opportunities while that one order sits dormant
1143  Economy / Speculation / Re: Hello cryptoworld after few months and bitcoin price is around $4000(!) on: December 02, 2018, 05:29:09 PM
there actually is a market / mining dynamic equilibrium

find the cheapest most efficient mining cost. and thats the baseline of value support.
when market prices move too high they always correct down closer to the mining cost range.

in short people want BTC theres 2 ways to get it
1. buying it
2. mine it

when its cheaper to mine it they will
when its cheaper to buy it they will

when they buy it the price goes up, making mining profitable
when they mine it the hashrate goes up, making mining costly

when they sell it the price goes down, making mining costly
when they dont mine it the hashrate goes down, making mining profitable

yes there is speculation layer but if you can find the bottomline mining cost you find the bottomline market value people refuse to sell below.

no one can guess when a temporary spike of speculation will happen. but if your looking for bottomline support. look for the mining cost and youll find the base value equilibrium

EG in january people woulld have started getting their S15's. imagining a whole network running s15's
the hashrate would need to be above 210exahash to have a sustainable bottomline where the price is around $25k
for those wanting a $100k btc . the hashrate would need to be about 840exa+ to keep a stable market above $100k
1144  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: USA blacklists 2 bitcoin addresses, threatens with secondary sanctions! on: December 02, 2018, 05:07:33 PM
Bullshit! Pure garbage. Sad

Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency/movement invented to defend people against the ruling monetary system

funny thing is that i see you complaining about businesses that are FIAT handling
i said in other topics.

if you want decentralisation YOU have to move away from using centralised FIAT services
if you want to not be held back by FIAT based sanctions/regulations. then stop using fiat regulated exchanges

organise a meetup and swap hand to hand with someone in a coffee shop

bitcoin is not sanctioned/regulated by fiat rules. you will not find a single fiat rule in bitcoin code,
the problem is people using FIAT services and then crying when FIAT rules apply

if you dont want the controls of fiat to apply then you need to not use fiat.
organise your local towns bitcoin meetup to discuss getting a local grocery store to accept bitcoin.

detach yourself from FIAT and FIAT rules will be of no concern to you.
didnt you read the regulations it only applies to BANKS and MSB's aka fiat regulated services

solution: dont use an MSB and you wont find funds getting blocked.. simple
1145  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: most of miners are shutting down their gigs? on: December 02, 2018, 02:07:08 PM
from the beginning of the year. many people shutting down their mining rig because they think that bitcoin mining cang give them a big profit becayse of the price of bitcoin. so they stop mining it for a while. maybe if bitcoin rpice of another cryptocurrency price is hav the high value they will start mine again

continuing my math from a few posts ago. thats 12month of data and math i used. based that a asic bought 12 months ago was $2k and at month 5(april 2018) people made enough to have $2k after paying electric.
meaning then the only worry was electric.
2months after that(june) they accumiliated enough income to cover all the electric upto today. so any income after june was 100% profit

.. now imagine this.
in april you took that $2k and bought more asics.
cost in april would have got you 2 s9's
by october you would have paid off one of those asics and used those funds to buy 2 more asics.
meaning by november your upto 5 asics meaning your income is not 90cent after electric. but $4.50 a day
OR
you could have hoarded not bought any extra asics meaning $2600 profit combined today and bought 26 s9's at $100
so your income after electric would be $23 a day not 90c if you started mining them all today
1146  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Prediction to hit 100,000$ on: December 02, 2018, 01:40:11 PM
yep still bullish, even now
2016 = over $300
2017 = over $900
2018 = over $3500

basing numbers on the price/mining equilibrium
if the entire network was mining s15 in 2019. the hashrate would need to be around 850exahash to give good value support for a healthy SUSTAINABLE price support of $100k
which is a 20x of current hashrate

i dont deal in speculative ATH or spikes that correct down. im thinking of a point of stable bottomline value when i do my math.

looking at how long a hashrate takes to get 20x higher. to support a healthy $100k cost/price equilibrium can be achieved within 2 years

so we should see some speculative drama of $100k in under that time. but then a stable support for $100k in 2 years
1147  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: most of miners are shutting down their gigs? on: December 02, 2018, 01:25:35 PM
Right now mining rigs functional on countries with increased electricity charges have been found shut upon the steady price drop which is unexpected. Majority of the miners face a drastic loss, having patience will let everyone grow with ease.

right now mining rigs using more than 5cents/kwh electric. are not farms(majority) they are just home users hobby mining.
thus the amount of PEOPLE screaming its not profitable because they usually only running a couple asics say its not profitable
might seem high. but the amount of ASICS involved with those individuals is LOW

the asic FARMs where there are  hundreds-10's of thousands of asics per person/facility. are well placed in cheap electric area's

so yea
there might be 1000 PEOPLE with say 10 asics (10k asics) screaming 'unprofitable'
there is also 299 people with say 10,000 asics (2,990,000 asics) happily making profit

the 299 people. are swapping asics for more efficient asics to make more profit. thus dont need to run as many asics when swapping.
while the 1000 hobbiests are crying that their electric is too high
1148  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: most of miners are shutting down their gigs? on: December 02, 2018, 01:07:45 PM
btc-room-101 has many many many calculations WRONG

hashdate 42exa
42000000thash
=3mill s9 asics always hashing

with 1800 btc mined a day
each asic makes 0.0006 a day =$2.40+

each asic bought last year was the s9 which was 1.3kwh
at $0.05/kwh = $0.0625 an hour per asic = $1.50 a day per asic

so your making 90c profit after electric is paid TODAY
i know your doing the math thinking 90c after electric
=6 years to cover hardware cost of an s9 12 month ago
=2.6 years to cover hardware cost of an s9 asic 6 months ago
=8months to cover hardware cost of an asic price batch of 3 months ago
=4month to cover the hardware cost at todays $100 second hand cost(ones offered to you)

but here is where your getting it wrong. basing old hardware costs on todays income
you said it yourself you can buy hardware at $100
which doing the actual math. subtracting out the electric cost. accounting for decumilating income means you get your $100 back in 5 months
................
so lets go back a year. grab all the stats of bitcoin prices. hashrate and math it out day by day
when turning on the hardware last year
you would make ~$25.88 a day (i done the math) which minus the $1.50 a day electric =~$24.38
that first day income after electric was $24.38

i done the math of hashrate per day divided it up to per asic and everything. and repeated it so that i could
calculate the de-escalating income per day. i even evaluated it against the btc price each day (eg selling your daily income as it came in)

and guess what.
within 5 month your income after electric. would have paid off the hardware.
meaning after the 5th month. you then are mining just with electric costs to cover.
knowing that there is still the rest of the year to go. you can work out at $1.50 a day thats $320~ of electric for 7 months
which paying the daily electric and just saving up income after electric as you use it.

within 2 months you have made enough profit. to cover the rest of the year.
so by month 7. you are making pure profit and no longr worrying about electric bill for the rest of the year

yep
mining on an S9 from december 2017 to december 2018 would get you ~$3147 BEFORE electric, taking into account you selling each daily reward each day
which is: ~$2600 after electric

have a nice day
1149  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin and AI Risk assesment discussion on: December 02, 2018, 12:43:06 AM
i have been playing around with machines that activate when they see a transaction confirmed on a particular address. a few years ago it was fun seeing something happen just by making a payment.

a couple years ago i mentioned an idea that car dealerships would in the future just need to send a multi-output transaction to a car manufacturer. EG
(uk dealership)                (18" wheels red paint, leather seats, rest of car)
1UkD34l3r5h1pNo1234(4btc) -> 1F4ct0ry18inchWh33l5 (0.4)
                                                1F4ct0ryR3dp41ntw0rk (0.4)
                                                1F4ct0ryL34Th3r534t5 (0.4)
                                                1F4ct0ryR35t0fc4rc05t (2.8 )

where if you can read the addresses shows:
where the car needs to be self driven to when complete (uk dealership number 1234)
what customisations the car requested should have

imagine a factory where a machine activated mixing red paint when it received funds to
1F4ct0ryR3dp41ntw0rk (0.4)
and so on
and the the finished cars licence plate/chassis number was the transaction ID of such transaction

now imagine there was no car dealership needed. but the funding address was a address of the customer
sitting at home. that through an ID chain the factory could identify the customers home address.

take it one stage further. the customer didnt order the car. but the old cars onboard computer showed an error number
and triggered the replacement car.

AI does not need to be AS (artificial sentiants)
a computer does not need to show pain or 'feelings'. it just needs to show it can do anything without a human needing to press a button to make it do something.

EG a car breaks down
the human passenger just thinks that the car has stopped due to a red light at a crosswalk.
but the old car knows it stopped due to a error. the car has already ordered a replacement car. which would be self driven and arrive at the passengers house by the morning.

all the self processing has occured before the passenger realises what the holdup was not a red street light but a car fault

take it one stage further
not car, but a custom AR-15 rifle orders a replacement when a old rifle locks-up
1150  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: A change for our financial systems on: December 01, 2018, 11:22:48 PM
Although I share your optimism and positivism in this ecosystem so lowly, I want to clarify a couple of things, the money never comes from "thin air"

just wait a couple years
many people who deposited fiat to buy BTC in MTGox still believe that they are owed BTC. even when there was not enough BTC in mtgox reserves to honour those trades

just wait a couple years
when people lock funds into LN factories and have factory hubs hand them unaudited tx's(not on blockchain) to open channels
and then just circulate unconfirmed balance back through a factory because a factory prefers to only hand out channel open payments instead of fund onlock broadcastable onchain tx's

just you wait for boiler room fake ETF pretending to be fully backed BTC ETF when they are really just CFD gambling sites
1151  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: most of miners are shutting down their gigs? on: December 01, 2018, 10:21:23 PM
The s15 might be better at hashing but with the initial costs...it just sucks.

a unused s9 is $850
a unused s15 is $1450

s15 is 28thash = 2x s9(14thash)
s15/2=$725
s15 wins

also s15 is 1.6kwh. so s15/2=0.8kwh,   unlike an s9 which is 1.3kwh
s15 wins again

what people dont realise is what happened in october
       _
      /  \
    _|
   /
  /
 /
/

this is normal hashing rises prior to october where more s9's are steadily added
this is them not adding more S9's
this is the initial replacing 1s9 for 1 s15
thus going back to normal steady rises but where they would only turn on 1 s15 when they would normally turn on 2 s9
this is them turning off some s9's and swapping 2s9 for 1 s15 (flat swap)
this is them realising they could actually take 8s9s out and only put 3 s15s and still win blocks while not having to run as many rigs


you can see on the hashrate charts the curve. though stretched out and zoomed out you dont notice the curve as much
forgive the colouring below. but i grabbed an earlier image i done to show some other topic something

the smaller image within the image is the 12 month hashrate. the larger image is a zoom on the october/november curve

looking at the image within the image. the blue highlight is normal action. the pink highlight is the initial purple flatline
the yellow highlight is the green orange purple red curve explained above
1152  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: most of miners are shutting down their gigs? on: December 01, 2018, 09:08:24 PM
people still forget that new more efficient asics are incoming. many are already operating now. (they call it quality assurance testing, but yea they are making money)
its not doom. its just the start of a new day, you just have not seen the sun rise yet
1153  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: A change for our financial systems on: December 01, 2018, 09:04:37 PM
well cryptocurrency economics is becoming just the same as fiat economics.

telling people holding their own funds and spending them p2p just doesnt work. that crypto assets are just too heavy to operate like that.
this is why so many wall-streeters/bankers are loving alternative networks like LN, etf's and sidechains.
so that crypto assets get locked up in vaults and contracts requiring the wall-streeter/banks sign off.
people then trade un blockchained, unaudited payment methods. and then after a time they simply drop the connection between the locked asset and the unaudited payment method

1154  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Is BITCOIN the "ENRON" of 2018?? HODL is Strong on: December 01, 2018, 08:58:23 PM
Interesting theory,but I can't agree completely.It's true that nobody can stop the cryptocurrency exchange platforms to turn into exit scams and run away with our coins.I think that the best time for this is gone (last year's ATH) so no crypto exchange would steal coins with rapidly decreasing prices.The crypto exchanges want a bull market,they risk their entire business for some easy money.

actually. moral exchanges make money no matter what the price is. 0.3% of any price is still 0.3%

as for the historic exit scams. exchanges actually do run off when the price tanks.
this is because they take the BTC.
when the price tanks. people are buying coin. but there is not enough coin to then give to customers as a withdrawal
(MTGOX, cryptorush, mintpal, name them all. disappeared at the drop)

when the price goes up. many people are throwing coins at the exchange so they can get fiat. exchanges love to stay open when prices go up. they hate it when prices go down because people start withdrawing their coins.
which is why when a exchange is not moral and has taken the coin. there is not enough to supply customers. so the exchange has to make up lame excuses about being hacked or bad coding causing double spends
1155  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Satoshi's supposed reappearance, but why now? on: December 01, 2018, 12:56:18 PM
satoshi doesnt need to turn up

bitcoin already has a centralsied power house making decisions on the upgrades. and if satoshi did turn up firstly that power house wont just give him back the reigns. secondly we dont need on person or one group. we should be concentrating on multiple groups and teams using consensus. not thinking about centralising code decisions

hense why is satoshi was to just genuinely him write a message. to write a actual meaningful message.

this drama is just some hacker or disgruntled ex employee of p2pf who wrote a message
1156  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Satoshi's supposed reappearance, but why now? on: December 01, 2018, 05:07:52 AM
if only the disgruntled ex employee at p2pfoundation or hacker decided to make a more practical message

                                          (^ not real message ^)
1157  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: How the bankers make billions with the Bitcoin crash.. this i want to discuss on: December 01, 2018, 04:36:25 AM
what people dont realise is that the "bankers" are these guys
www.dcg.co/portfolio

what they are doing is behind the exchanges they control
EG
bitflyer       changetip      coinsetter
bitoasis      circle             genesis
bitpesa       coinbase       itbit
bitso          coinhouse      korbit
bitwala       coinjar          kraken
buda          coins.ph        luno
......and thats just half the alphabet

they are OTC trading using reserves behind many other platforms
EG
Altonomy, Atlantic Financial, Bitbank, Bitfinex, Bitmax, BitMEX, Bitso, BTCBOX, BTSE, Buull Exchange, DGroup, Coinone, Crypto Garage, GOPAX (operated by Streami), Korbit, L2B Global, OKCoin, The Rock Trading, SIX Digital Exchange, Unocoin, Xapo, XBTO, and Zaif.

to arbitrage coins and fiat between these exchanges using a blockstream service, a variant of LN called liquid

https://blockstream.com/2018/10/10/liquid-launch/
1158  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Mining is Dead: How Do U Incentive transaction servers?? on: December 01, 2018, 03:37:27 AM
guess you didnt get the memo

bitmain S15's new release
bitmain S9's on discount
canaans avalons on discount

minings not dead.
most efficient miners have a mining cost of $3100
bitcoin price is $4k. so its profitable to mine

what your not realising is yes those who bought s9's in 2017 at $2k mathematically are not breaking even IF you put those numbers to 2018 stats. but those S9's had a year to get funds in. so what they are mining with now is rigs that paid off the hardware cost and now just paying off the electric. which at 5cent a kwh is still profitable

the reason hashrate drop is because farms are swapping rigs to the next gen asics.
EG for every two S9's they can swap it for one S15
2xs9=2.6kwh usage
1xs15=1.6kwh usage

so same hashpower less electric
going one step further. to prevent a hash spike like 2013 that just shot them in the foot with a two year limp. they are being smart.
for every 8 units they are not swapping for 4 next gen. but instead 3 units. to make the difficulty go down. so that they can still mine for less cost. instead of the endless cycle of trying to push and fight for more power
......
transaction servers?
um you do realise that an asic does not even have a hard drive and does not store the blockchain right. they are just glorified calculators tasked with only one job. calculate a hash from another hash.
ASICS do not collate transactions. they do not list them as a block
a node does that. and then a node creates a hash for that block. then the node sends a hash to asics and then the asic calculates a new hash from the first hash.
emphasis mining is nothing to do with transaction collation/block formation
learn the difference between a ASIC farm and a node
......
anyway this is all just temporary drama. just wait until the big main batches of mining rigs get delivered in the last week of december. and the hashclimb really begins. which then affects the market/mining value equilibrium to put some buy pressure on the markets

...
your last point about re-deploying asics to brute force old bitcoin addresses .. seriously.. addresses are ecdsa
asics are ONLY SHA256

that like trying to crack math using emojis
1159  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What is Physical Worth of Bitcoin: Energy Consumption and Equipments  on: December 01, 2018, 02:10:17 AM
Do you think can we find past values of bitcoin mining? By using today's datas.

just using the magic numbers above.. well not so much for anything before spring 2018
for instance the asics of winter 2017 were using 14thash miners that cost $2k-$3k
not the $900 rigs of 2018

but if you math the numbers out the long way round. you can work out the magic numbers of previous batches and then put them to use against hashrate/price data..

screw it.
2017 had a magic number of between 270-380

you also gotta know when the batches were released to know when to start adjusting the ranges.
like a chart i have from a few months ago showing the year to date of a few months ago

ranges can be useful. but i just went for the cheapest/most efficient miners of a time. rolled with that. as ranges just had too much scope/spread at times.
like this
1160  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Is BITCOIN the "ENRON" of 2018?? HODL is Strong on: December 01, 2018, 01:47:20 AM
the bitcoin network is not one entity. yes there is one group that decide the rules of the protocol due to peoples foolish trust that on group should develop the nodes and treat any other software as enemy.. which is sparking a weakness to the decentralised concept. but as for the holdings. they are not stuck in a groups control.

everyone has a copy of the ledger and their privatekey.
the private key is not a password to a server.
there is no bitcoin server.

even if all the exchanges that are just businesses that work as separate entities shut down people can still OTC trade, local face to face trade

people like the OP need to wake up that bitcoin is not exchanges and exchanges are not bitcoin.  
mixing exchanges and bitcoin to presume they are one and the same is foolishly like saying a retail store is the dollar
"OMG if walmart shut down the dollar is untradable"

nope. although you can use a business to swap currency for something else. doesnt mean if a retailer disappears so does the whole currency.
yea some people that deposit funds into the businesses address would lose the self control of the funds and if that business shut down getting them out is next to impossible with a immoral business.. but bitcoin is not reliant on an exchange
people should become less reliant on letting businesses hold their funds

all the coins in circulation are not suck in an exchange. the coins are not shares of an exchange. so the comparison to enron is wrong on many levels
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