Bitcoin Forum
August 20, 2019, 11:16:41 AM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 0.18.0 [Torrent] (New!)
 
  Home Help Search Login Register More  
  Show Posts
Pages: « 1 ... 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 [99] 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 ... 824 »
1961  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin road to $ 14,000 returns on: August 28, 2018, 02:49:37 PM
I really hope BTC can increase again. But look at reality in my opinion based on technical analysis, this is only a correction in a long downtrend period
It is difficult for Bitcoin to grow again in a short time

draw a line from novmber 2017-february 2018.. and then between those dates. cut off the mountain above th line.

now you will see a simplified view of where real value is.
forget about trends and patterns of the hype(ATH) and stick to the thought process and logic of the bottomlin value.

think logically.
when a group of people sell at $4k last year. the new group(the buyers) get it for $4k and wont sell below $4k
kep that in mind. let it play around in a analysis of volume traded for a year. and eventually youll se that those holding bitcoin eventually round their option to sell to not go below $4k.
then as we approach novmber 2017- august 2018 there have been 9 months of oppertunity for those that would sell above $4k to sell above $4k.
eventually as it swaps hands all those wanting so sell have sold and this creates a support price of above $4k. and by august with thee 9 months of viable oppertunity. the comunity is now testing a $6k bottom.. which has held quite well

also with mining costs due to hashrate increases have miners who would now refuse to sell for less than $6k too
if the hashrate went below 40 exahash again in th future then those miners would see profit below $6100.
so as long as hashrate stays above 40xa from now on even miners wont sell below $6k

..
as time goes on hashrate rises, miners increase the minimum limit of what price they will sell for. and traders swap coins and set new minimums too

no one can predict the next ATH.. but it is possible to analise the LOW. and we are at the low range which over time will go up

in short. the correction has already occured and we are no longer at the top of a mountain but standing at ground level
1962  Economy / Speculation / Re: What the future holds for Bitcoins? on: August 28, 2018, 01:52:42 PM
op.
fail 1.
no point copy and pasting blog posts from 3 months ago. you wont earn merit from others words most stuff is out of date by the time its blogged ($9k btc for instance, is not todays price)


anyway lets look at the fails of the blogger

fail 2 "commodity"

a commodity is a raw material used to create other products
gold=electronics/jwellery
oil=fuel/plastic
wheat=bread/cereal

bitcoin is an ASSET class currency not a commodity class currency.

fail 3. bitcoin wasnt in existance a decade ago.. it was first circulated january 2009 but it was about 8 years ago before bitcoin had a "value" (mid 2010's pizza event)

fail 4. the blogger has shown no mathematical, logical, rational thinking around the exact number he chose.
he might as well wrote some numbers on scraps of paper, put them in a hat and done a lucky dip
1963  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin road to $ 14,000 returns on: August 28, 2018, 01:37:31 PM
i feel all the people that bought below $6k have finally sold off and the now holders of said coin have set their limit higher then their buy to create a 'cost of obtaining' arouond $6k
and those who bought below $6k that have not sold. are still adement by now to refuse to sell below $6k
have now after months of oppertunity and testing finally set a good traders support line of $6k


as for mining. miners cost of obtaining is is in the range of 42exa-69exa which at 5cent a kwh and including the ASIC costs calculates to a miners cost of obtaining range of $6391 and $10501

so miners break even cost of obtaining this week is between $6391 and $10501. so as long as all the traders have set their lower limits to $6k and are not dumb enough to sell at a loss.. then with mining costs being over $6k. we should see a natural rise of good VALUE with no prospect of real value decline below $6k again..

unless foolish people sell at loss below value, (which they have had 6 months chance to sell below a $6k support area)


(explaining the simplified back of the envelope math)
hashrate in terrahash:        /14= ASICS used      (because: 14terrahash per asic)

asics used:     *850 unit cost = unit cost             (bcause asics ~$850 per unit)
yearly unit cost:     /655200 = hardware per btc      (spread cost across a years life cycle)(12.5*2016blocks*26 fortnights)

asics used: *0.065= hourly electric cost (because 0.05 at 1.3kwh)
hourly cost *8736 = yearly cost (because 24*14*26 is a year of hours)
yearly cost /655200= cost per btc of electric

hardware+electric= cost per btc

42,000,000   terra hashrate
3,000,000   asics used
$3,891.94   hardware per btc
$2,500.00   electric per btc
$6,391.94   cost per btc


69,000,000   terra hashrate   
4,928,571   asics used   
$6,393.90   hardware per btc   
$4,107.14   electric per btc   
$10,501.05   cost per btc
1964  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Terminology of bitcoin transactions|Novice must see on: August 28, 2018, 12:47:11 PM
sticking to bitcoin terms because different coins use different rules..

It is translated, so there are some better explanations for everyone to improve. Kiss

transaction : a piece of data that shows where value came from and where it is going to. by showing the public addresses of the sender and receiver. it also shows how much value is being moved and also a unique signature message created using a private key
imagine it as an electronic cheque (from me to you, value, signature)

Private Key : A secret key is associated with a public key which is then associated with an address. it is used to authrise/identify that the value should move because only the owner(private key holder) of the address should decide to move value.

signature : is a transactions signed message using the private key. where this message is not the private key but a mssage only able to be created using the private key mashing up th transaction data into a unique message that would only validate to the associated public address of the sender/source of funds

private key can create the public key and get an address. but an address cannot create a private key.
think of it as starting with a password. that uses special computer maths to create a public key that then creates a account number/username.
your password can validate you own the account/username. but the account number/username cannot be untangled to reveal the password
thus securing data by not revealing the private key so that the only one able to 'spend' bitcoins is the only one with access to the private key(password).
If there is a corresponding bitcoin on the address, you can use the private key to spend the bitcoin,

block : a batch of transactions that locks the contents using a blockhash that is unique to that specific data to create a identifiable block of data

blockhash: the identifier of that block, created by meeting certain rules. which would alter if data is altered. thus making it easy to identify if any received data in the block has been changed if the blockhash does not match the data

Blockchain:Is the public list of all transactions that have been locked into blocks, where by each block also includes the blockhash of the previous block. thus chaining them together. hense the term blockchain
which allows anyone to hold a copy of the blockchain data and agree on which (address) holds certain value. because they can verify they all have the same data easily using the blockhashes.
A full-featured node maintains a copy of the blockchain and verifies with each other they hold the same data

Mining: there is no single source that creates all blocks, they are distributed into 'pools' of miners. and the task is to create the blockhashes for fresh blocks using a mechanism called POW

POW:The process of consuming computing resources to produce the unique hash.. it is a mechanism of 'mining' to lock data into a block by giving it a unique 'hash' identifier based on certain rules

miners : can operate around the world, and the more distributed they are and un associated they are the better for data integrity. but also a balance is needed of having multiple parties 'pool' their work togther on one version of a new block to decrease the chances of threat by one individual enttity. they get rewarded with a deflationary amount of coin per blockhash solution that meets the rules and has been accepted by the network, spendable only after 100 other new blocks have been built and chained ontop of their solution

pools :  a group of miners syndicated together to find a blockhash of a fresh block that meets the rules by finding a difficult to replicate blockhash that an individual cant replicate alone. there are many pools and the more pools that exist the better.
imagine these pools as the electronic cheque clearing houses

hash : the electronic conversion of block data into a unique identifier of 32bytes. by mashing up the data using a set method called sha256

Hash Rate:The term of measuring the rate of creating hashes, expressed in seconds.
hash/s: creation of one hash per second
terrahash/s: creation of 1,000,000,000,000(1bill) hashes per second
petahash/s:  creation of 1,000,000,000,000,000(1trill) hashes per second
exahash/s:  creation of 1,000,000,000,000,000,000(1quad) hashes per second

difficulty : a rule that is part of POW where the blockhash has to meet a rule of having a certain amount of '0' at the start. this is adjusted every 2016 blocks to be more difficult(more '0') or less difficult(less '0') depending on if the network produced 2016 blocks in under or over fortnight time period

Multisig : this allows multiple keys to be combined to create a single public key/address. thus allowing more than one entity to jointly sign a bitcoin transaction without everyone involved needing to know the same private key.
With this technology, it takes a lot of private keys to sign and verify when it is spent on Bitcoin, which is then accepted by the Bitcoin network, thereby improving Bitcoin's safety.
think of it like a electronic cheque of a joint bank account

Transaction Fee : these currently account for a small portion of block rewards for miners mining. when a sender moves value it forgets about a small amount of value the receiver should get. this small forgotton amount is then added to the miners block reward. because the main block reward is deflationary. the fee's become more important for miners while the reward becomes less important over time

wallet: Refers to an app (web or desktop) that allows the signing of transactions. these wallets hold and secure the private key
and can display the funds assiciatd with the corresponding public address

AML/KYC rule : The government has a regulatory framework for getting businesses to register with said government to then have the business police its own customers to identify potential criminals
to achieve this, businesses have to identify their customers (KYC: Know your customer) and then monitor the customer for activities that may be of risk such as money laundering. (AML: Anti Money Laundering) and then report said customer if the threat seems worthy enough to involve authorities
1965  Other / Off-topic / Re: Soon we would not need banks on: August 27, 2018, 08:28:47 PM
there will still be fiat 'banks'.. but once things go digital there would not be PHYSICAL bank BRANCHES

banks will create their own app and that app would just use a blockchain/DLT platform

imagine it like the IMF as a (hub) which houses the balances of each country. like a UTXO set of its (channels) to each country
then imagine each country having its own UTXO SET of its own (channels) with (hubs) where each of these is (channelled) into smaller (hubs) per state/county/region
where each regional (hub) is (channelled) into local town/city (hubs)

and each city hub only needs to manage balances of ~4000 customers accounts(channels)
...
some math
imagine 4k people per bank branch. and there are 1730 bank branches per state. and 52 states(~90k bank branches in usa)
90k*4k=~360m population
..
all (hubs) wont need to store transaction history of everyones trade in the world. they would only need to store account totals(channel totals)(UTXO sets) of hubs(channels) its connected to.

where by the transactional data becomes non important once the 2 participants have agreement. and its only the UTXO set that gets transmitted around the network and audited. alowing for the transactional data to be only stored locally and prunable after a detail legally obligated period.

...
its pretty much what LN is to become because thats where the blockstream devs got the idea from. the bankers.

their hope is
your bank STATEMENT.(ledger of 'from alice to bob') transaction data is stored at a local bank branch(factory/watchtower hub). but not needing to have every bank branch holding every transactional data.

whereby your bank BALANCE (utxo set / channel balance) is stored in multiple bank branches locally, regionally at head quarters and at the IMF to be audited(audited route) without needing to check blockchain data every payment

LN's current faults is that its trying to be too bank branch-esq with its hubs, factories and watchtowers concepts. which fall flat because without hubs/factories/watchtowers each node then also needs to view the entire blockchain to validate the channel balances when partnering up in a smart contract. meaning hop models and mobile app models wont work.

1966  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: How do you think blockchain can benefit healthcare? on: August 27, 2018, 07:31:41 PM
By far the most in-depth response yet! Thanks for the contribution franky.

To extend on your thoughts, would there be a better use-case for a different blockchain rather than Bitcoin's?

different blockchain - yes
first thing that needs solving is. what industry needs to have a big batch of information in multiple locations
if data can function from one source. theres not much need to even try introducing blockchain into that industry.

however think about airports which would benefit greatly from having passport data backed up utilised in different locations.
because if you shut one airport. other airports can still run, as long as they have the data..
so if one source goes down..if all the data was in once source. no one can fly anywhere.
but if one source goes down..if all the data was in every airport. anyone one can fly anywhere. by just finding a new airport

where as if facebook.com goes down. it downt matter if their data was on one server or multiple nodes.. theres no point in having blockchain/DLT logged data because the only gateway to that info (facebook.com) is shut down.(you cant just go to another facebook and continue utilising facebook)
yes having facebook back up its data incase the data gets corrupted rather then site shutdown. but from a utility prospective. there is no need to have it scattered across 7000 locations. as it only needs 4-5 backup locations incase of fire/theft.
(facebook doesnt and wouldnt benefit from asking a billion users to hold a copy of the billion users timeline.)

secondly
i was going to waffle into loads of concepts and different 'chain' designs. but there are just so many ways that look nothing like bitcoins design. but the important thing is to work out what industry needs distributed data FUNCTIONALLY that is needed to be UTILISED across locations. rather than just having it as a backup.


i hope you notice the difference between readily available data from different locations being a utility. vs just plain backup of data of one gateway incase of central fault
1967  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: How do you think blockchain can benefit healthcare? on: August 25, 2018, 03:31:28 PM
the issue about blockchain is that some believe EVERYONE has to by law verify data.
at the moment there are only 10k nodes verifying bitcoin. yet millions of users.

so lets go with the concept of not needing millions of verifiers, but just a number of strategically separate verifiers
now lets take healthcare

who actually NEEDS to vrify the data. vs who needs to just be able to viw their own records

imagine a blockchain which has a multisig requiring 3 signatures per record.
a general practioner. a specialist and a labtech. this way a record wont get locked into a mempool without it being seen by validators.
then when forming a block of test results. each ward/department of a hospital then validates the block to insure each test result conforms to certain rules.

it does not actually require every hospital around the world to receive, verify and store every record of every hospital. all it needs is just enough equally distant participants to be involved to ensure no single point of failure

for instance most patients records of a town in america dont need to travel to japan or china. so records just need to be verifid by a lab technician departmnt, a specialist department and a GP. (thats 3 separate buildings) then because of locality. it can have 5 randomly chosen hospitals that are picked within state or county to double check. and have a few out of state, again for emphasis doesnt ned all world hospitals holding the same data

again dont think about it needing to have millions of verifiers for every piece of data uniformically.
there could be a state ledger of xxxthousand patients and another state ledger of anothr xxx thousand patents.

as for any concern still about data storage risks. each departnmt does not actually need to hold the entire blockchain. imagine it like each node only producing a UTXO database of transactions that node(department) is involved in.

..
think about it. in the US there are 320mill population and 5500 hospitals.. thats only <60k patients per hospital(chain)

people do not get tests every 10 minutes. so say they have on average 2 tests a year. thats only 120k record updates needed every year on average

now if the main hospital chain is just full of TXID's thats only a blockchain growth of 3.84mb a year.
meaning a hospital could easily store that blockchain. along with 5500 other blockchains of TXID's without having to stor all patint records.

and each department having just 120k records a year (lets say 500bytes per record) 60mb a year growth. can easily store its own patient data for easy access but also data or nearby hospital departmnts or randomly selected hospital departmnts to keep things distributed to avoid the single point of failure problem.

as i said. 60mb growth per hospital a year..
bitcoin grows at ~200mb a DAY. which is 73gb a year
so a department could store upto 1000 other department ledgers and not be any issues of 'scale' that bitcoin has been fudded about
1968  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Lightning network stats: 96 BTC • 3.0K nodes • 11.2K channels on: August 24, 2018, 07:02:40 PM
I'm very interested in your comparison of LN nodes (factories) with bank branches and between them, there is one very significant difference IMHO.
Lightning Network Hubs:
No KYC, no AML.

1. you cant just have funds and throw it at a destination when using LN.
   a) first you need to lock your funds into a contract. which gives a scond party duel signature control of.(setting up a bank account)
   b) then you need to route your funds from the factory(central deposit) to a hub(choosing which regional bank branch you wish to frequent most often)
   c) then when spending the funds that were allocated to your local bank branch account(channel). the hub needs to sign off on it.
   d) and so does every attached hub on the route to the destination.. and
   d) even the destination needs a hub manager to be awake and online to accept payment because your destined friend may be asleep
   e) where things like banking hours may develop where not everyone is online all the time so certain times of day become better to transact(best routes)

as for AMLKYC
go research into latest regulatory reports about making it compulsory for "custodians" to KYC... look at the new crypto companies starting up that are not doing finance but doing identity.. where do you think they link into the picture..

here is what will happen
factoris will register as custodians and do KYC. and be allowed to handle large amounts of funding. they however need to register thier channel partners who also reach a certain value limit to avoid AML alerts. and if the network overview shows they have channeled to a node that has high value but cant be KYC'd the factories will rfuse to channel with them to avoid being alerted as a possible AML risk.

eventually nodes with high value but no KYC wont find acceptable channel partners. and as we all should know by now, due to the 8 degrees of separation theory. (some say lower numbr) everyone including the small value channels will be KYC'd due to thier near partnerage of a registered AMLKYC factory/watchtower


last point.
if you think LN is going to be more private and 'off the grid' .. think again. just look at the stats that get posted.
nodes are PUBLICLY publishling their holdings, numbers of channels and values in each.
if LN was more private than onchain. none of the stats would be able to be published.
1969  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will Bitcoin hit a trillion dollar marketcap in the future? on: August 24, 2018, 05:47:03 AM
A Trillion Dollar market cap is easily achievable if large Stock Markets allow Bitcoin to be traded as a Commodity or even if one of the large ecommerce sites starts to accept Bitcoin as a payment option. <Example : eBay / Amazon>

One Killer application can even push us into a Trillion Dollar market cap, under the right circumstances or if one of the large franchise like Mc Donalds or KFC start to accept Bitcoin as a payment method.  Grin

commodity??!  a commodity is a raw material used to create other products
oill=car fuel/plastic
wheat=bread/cereal
gold=electronics/jewellery

i hope you mean ASSET (forex currencies, stocks, shares, property)
1970  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will Bitcoin hit a trillion dollar marketcap in the future? on: August 24, 2018, 05:40:34 AM
no one cares about market cap
anyone can make a 1trillion cap coin. buy just 1 coin for $5 and instantly have a $5trillion cap. with only an investment of $5
in short. anyone can create a $5trillion cap market for just 5 decent loaves of american bread

...
"constant decline in value"!??

um no
you mean price. and even then its not been constant decline..

if you just cut away hype TEMPORARY event of november 12th-february 5th
as those prices were just hyp/bubble/speculation prices in that period.

and treat it as the anomily it is..

and the just draw a line straight across from november 12th february 5th you will see a much different picture.

stop standing at the very peak of mount everest looking down as if everyone should be living at the peak and everyone should worry about falling off..
instead realise everyone lives at ground level and looks up.

value is hidden at the bottom/groundlvel. and then things like specupation/motion/profiterinig goes ontop.

now. do some maths on cost of mining. you will start to se my point about ground level. ...
then overlay the cost of mining and you will see some correlation..

now ignore all price chart trends anals..
use the hashrate chart instead and draw some predictive lines of future direction..
pick a date on that line and do the mining costs calculations on it. and you will see the bottomlin value bitcoin might be at that time.

no one can predict the highs. or when the next ATH PRICE will be.. but some can if done well look at where the new lows(value) could sit in the future
1971  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Blockchain's gift of Pseudonymity and how we lost it on: August 24, 2018, 03:26:33 AM
they WERE pro-privacy.. but that was pre-2013

also. if you look at stats pages of LN. it reveals who, how many nodes. how much value those nodes hold and if smart you can keep checking those nodes and when the values change you can log that. and then see the nodes they are connected to and log where the funds went to.

EG
A[20:10]B[30:15]C
C can find out what B has with A. because B can only send 10 to A
if A moved10 to be...
A[10:20]B[30:15]C
C can then see that B can move 20 to A so C knows that A just paid B 10

channels actually announce how much they hold and can channel. to allow people to choose who they should choose as a channel partner.. so its not private at all

i found it funny how LN was proposed as a tool to be more private. and yet i can find out mor about a user of LN than i can find out by a mainnet bitcoin user

again privacy is being eroded. especially when LN is moving to a factory/watchtower model which will then require AML KYC and having them watchtowers/factories register as 'custodians' to then require KYCing their channeled users

if only back in 2013 we didnt not rally/lobby for rgulation of businesses (they police and KYC users) but instead rally/lobbied for consumer protction (users police and KYC businesses)
1972  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: ETFs are gone, now it's Bitmain IPO? on: August 24, 2018, 03:04:33 AM
In my opinion, Bitmain IPO may not have much impact on Bitcoin's price, especially considering it's falling behind in the latest development of the newer generation of the Bitcoin ASIC miners.
As we know, Bitmain has been in the dominant position in the ASIC mining industry for a long time,
but maybe only a few people noticed the subtle changes in this industry regarding the newer generation of the ASIC miners - the 7nm ASIC Bitcoin miner.
Bitmain has yet delivered the 7nm ASICs, while a couple of competitors, such as  GMO from Japan, Samsung from Korea, Canaan, another Chinese company, all of them announced 7nm Bitcoin ASIC miners. It seems Bitmain is falling behind. I am expecting to see its market shares decrease over time.

The ETF, on the other hand, it is something that is nice to have to Bitcoin, but even without ETF approval, I believe Bitcoin ecosystem can still make progress.

GMO samsung and canaan..  "announced".. meaning they too have not "delivered"..... so the entire ASIC market is in the same boat..
as for articles that bitmain is losing its top place.. well thats just a debate similar to the GPU days of ATI Vs Geforce....

what equipment is used is not as important as the actual pool software that combines transactions due to rules.
(asics dont have hard drives to even touch tranaction/block verification rules.. they just hash a header)
so just like the GPU days... who is providing the equipment has no consequnce on bitcoin..

and as of june it seems bitmain has re entered the competitive market by dropping Unt cost from 2017's $2k to june 2018's $850 thus pople can buy atlaest 2 units for the price of one.  yet things like canaan's prices are only for bulk orders but grow to double for individual units.

anyway. we are already at a near bottom priceline. so ofcourse chances of going up are high.. its just WHEN and by how much is th qustion no one can answer.
1973  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: ETFs are gone, now it's Bitmain IPO? on: August 24, 2018, 02:32:04 AM
article seems to centre around the words of whalepanda and sampson mow.. yawn more fud from the BScartel side

meanwhile social drama does not push up sustainable bitcoin VALUE. it only pushes up temporary price spikes that then correct.
99% of people never get to be online in time to take advantage of ths temporary price spikes of sicial drama cause. so why even bother wasting days talking about it.

most smart people dont waste weeks-months trying to cause and hoping for a unsustainable social drama hype bubble to cause a 100% spike.. instead they spend each day making 1-3% on the small natural movements which over the same weeks-months adds up to the same 100% profit. but without having to stir the social pot for hopes of a well timed hype bubble
1974  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: And yet still, I RISE!!! (Bitcoin Price rises despite ETF denials) on: August 24, 2018, 02:01:46 AM
bitcoin is not 100% spculation. it actually does have underlying value that people refuse to sell below,

even with bad news there is a limit/refusals to sell lower
and even without good news people will help move prices up

if you know the difference between VALUE and price. you will see that there is always a underlying value that sits near about $200 above the bottomline support.

the bottom line support is made up by the math of cost of mining and the psychological line people refuse to sell below
ignoring the ATH prices. .. if you just look at the yearly ATL and draw a line btween them. you see the bottom support.
then value sits a little above that as thats the "yay i mad some profit" part. usually its just a few % higher than bottomline(cost of obtaining).

whedrawing this line on price charts you would be surprised that it correlates with things like the cost of obtaining bitcoin(mining costs)
now with all the doom and gloom of social drama and public opinion the price wont go below the bottom line. because this is the line people refuse to sell for as its then selling at a loss.

now when there is not much more the price can go down by. even without positive news to hype the market. day traders can only make profit by having a prices that moves.. so if it cant go down by a few % as its already at the low.. the only way to have % movements is to go up.

but keep in mind the underlying bottom line over a period. because if the price moves too much over a certain level. that level is not sustainable (take december 2017 for instance) that was a 3x hype bubble price. and was not ever going to be sustainable. hens why it corrected down.

..
what you will notic though is eventually all those that bought below $6k would have set their limit as $6k+ or got out the community.
if a person buys a coin for $6k+. they set themselves the limit of happily selling for over $6k but nver under $6k. unless they are stupid or exiting at a loss.(small population are stupid/exiters) so once they are out. the new holder of that stupid decision has the coin and that then reinforces a minimum because 2 stupid traders in a row is far less chance of happening. so you notice the over all psychology of the community moves the price up as funds change hands. (this is the psychological buying coin cost of obtaining bottomline support)

then if you look at the mining costs that too increases over time too as the hashrate goes up. this too reinforces the minimum bottom. again they wont sell for a loss.(this is the mathmatical mining cost of obtaining bottomline)

so if a price is down near the bottom line. then day traders are going to want to shift the market to avoid it going stagnant so they can make their couple % per trade. so as i said they become incentivised to push prices up because they cant go down.

summary
so even without hype, without positive news, when prices are at the bottom (this months mining cost range is $5.7k-$8k dependant on hashrate)
the only way is up.

the only way prices can move to zero. is if EVERYONE sold at a loss (evryone is stupid. or bitcoin is broke). so unless bitcoin cryptography breaks. be confident with the ~$6k bottom line.

and feel free to do the math on mining costs to see where the bottomline zone is so that you can se if the PRICE is near or above VALUE
1975  Economy / Speculation / Re: How far is the bottom for Bitcoin ? When will it peak again? on: August 23, 2018, 01:07:09 PM
ignore the HIGHS. you will just drive yourself insane always checking and hoping for highs.. no one knows or can tell you how high or when high..

however there is both math and psychology that backs up the LOWS.. its called the cost of obtaining limit. (only stupid sell below the cost they obtained it)


bitcoins hashrate at january 2017 was only 2.5exa hash  with ASICS average price being $2k. and calculating the number of asic units and the electric and spreading the unit costs.. brought the COST to mine btc to $700+
bitcoins exchange price LOW was ~$900 ($700 value + $200 speculation hype)

skip forward 6 months
bitcoins hashrate at july 2017 hashrate was 6exa.. with ASICS average price being $2k. and calculating the number of asic units and the electric and spreading the unit costs.. brought the COST to mine btc to $1680
bitcoins exchange price LOW was ~$1990 ($1680 value + $310 speculation hype)

decembers hype was not sustainable. and would never have lasted and not many people actually got to be online to take advantage of the temporary bubble and correction event.. which is another reason to not fuss over th hype bubbles because they happen so fast 99% of people just cry they missed out. so dont worry or car about it..

moving forward lets take july 2018
at this point ASIC unit cost dropped to $850 (waa $2k a unit)

bitcoins hashrate at june 2018 hashrate was 36exa.. with ASICS average price being $850. and calculating the number of asic units and the electric and spreading the unit costs.. brought the COST to mine btc to $5570
bitcoins exchange price LOW was ~$5850 ($5570 value + $280 speculation hype)

this math is not to be taken literally as a daily scale.. as people do not sell instantly. its best to get the months low hashrate and treat that as the months price LOW once calculated.
weekly/daily/hourly do not work out as correlated as people are random about when they finally sell coins

so take a months overview and take the lowst hashrate you see and the highest. to see the area/zone of break even
https://www.blockchain.com/en/charts/hash-rate?timespan=30days
37exa(28th july)-54exa (11th aug)

so now look at this months low of 37exa and this months top of 54exa.. you will see a range of $5.7k-$8k for the month. and now guess what the high and low bitcoin PRICE swing was for this month.. yep $5.7k-$8k
magic right... nope. its math and social conscience of nevr selling at a loss

now you can be left to look at the hashrate chart and draw some lines on the hashrate chart and it may hlp you better define where the LOWS may settle
1976  Economy / Speculation / Re: When to buy Bitcoin. The price of the coin exceeded $ 6500 on: August 23, 2018, 08:29:44 AM
forget about trying to predict how high the next ATH will be
forget about trying to predict how soon the next ATH will be

instead realise the most important thing is to know what the LOW average is expected to be.

and here is a tip.. look at the cost of mining.

EG - back of an envelope math...
take 47exahash network hashrate, thats 47000000 terahash
an asic is 14trra (fixd number worth remembering)
so 47000000/14
so thats 3.3mill ASICS needed

imagine electric
at 6cents an hour (to cover 5cent/kwh at an asics 1.3kw (back of envelop rounded math)
0.06*3.3m
=$198k an hour /6blocks /12.5btc =$2640/btc for electric

imagiine unit cost
recent batch of $850 per asic and lastability is 1 year..
so lets break it down to an hour 850/365/24 = ill call it 10cents for back of envelop math
0.10*3.3m
=$330k an hour /6 blocks /12.5btc = $4400/btc for unit cost
total cost to mine= $7k/btc

final tip. miners dont sell coins on exchanges instantly as soon as they receive them
so sorry this math cannot predict prices to the minute.
no one can predict exact prices, exact dates
no one can predict how high a hype bubble the next ATH will be or when
no one can predict if or when prices will stay low or for how long

but it can guage roughly the low area/zone for the month
so take a months overview and take the lowst hashrate you see and the highest. to see the area/zone of break even
https://www.blockchain.com/en/charts/hash-rate?timespan=30days
37exa(28th july)-54exa (11th aug)

and look at the months low of 37exa and months top of 54exa.. you will see a range of $5.7k-$8k for the month. and now guess what the high and low bitcoin PRICE swing was for the month.. yep $5.7k-$8k
magic right... nope. its math

you can atleast find a safe zone of average expectancy of the low price to know if bitcoin is near a low(within the area/zone) or hyped up(way above the area/zone)

final final tip
look more broadly at the hasrate over a year. and draw a couple lines of expected future direction of the lowst hash expctation and highest expectation.. then do some math
1977  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Mining Giant Bitmain Invests in Blockchain Data Storage Startup on: August 22, 2018, 11:17:57 PM
this news is not about bitcoin.. its about other currencies/blockchains.

secoondly mining companies dont really want to sell their coiins on the markets or through OTC while the profit margins are low. so they are hedging their bets by investing their mining rewards into companies so the investments are not touching exchanges.

what you find is although investments have been signed. the value/funds dont actually move into these companies straight away. funds are normally released in small batches/tranches when certain goals are met and/or certain costs are needed to be paid for. so dont expect funds to hit exchangs via lambda any time soon either... and if/when it does. dont expect it to be noticable big amount of coins being convertd to fiat. as most big lumps will be done OTC and it only becooms small employ wages(if paid in btc) that gts swappd on public exchanges, thus no impact
1978  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Looks Unlikely To Cross $10,000 Again This Year on: August 22, 2018, 10:09:48 PM
OP has no clue

the underlying value actually has some real numbers. im not talking about the ATH specualtive bubble price. im talking about the LOW support lines which are built up by the 'cost of obtaining' costs.

if you ignore the spikes of speculation and instead only note the bottom line. lowest prices. you will see correlations based on certain things.
last years october $4k bottom was based on a bit of speculation but it held a supportive line based on costs of mining bitcoin when the old batches were $2k per asic. which if you look at how many asics were hashing for the entire network. and the electric needed. and then divided it down by perblock/per btc. you would see the numbers

this years bottom are based on mining costs of an asic batch of $850 per asic but with higher hashrate. which if you do the maths on how many asics are needed+electric plus splitting the cost of an asic over lets say a year. you start to see where the costs come into it.

now if you simply draw a line of what you think the hashrate will be like by the end of the year. and do the same maths on mining costs. you will see that miners will refuse to sell below those costs. and.. because most 'old holders' have set their new bottomlines due to the 10 month level-off of ~$4k+
as people sold off and new people bought that during the prices of over $5k over the last year. the new holders have now set their new bottomline. and this will continue as months move on, to double support a incremental bottomline.

no one can predict the next hype bubble speculative ATH. but you can atleast see where the bottomline can move/increment over time.

heres a hint:
forget about trying to predict how high the next ATH will be
forget about trying to predict how soon the next ATH will be

instead realise the most important thing is to know what the LOW average is expected to be.

and here is a tip.. look at the cost of mining.

EG - back of an envelope math...
take 47exahash network hashrate, thats 47000000 terahash
an asic is 14trra (fixd number worth remembering)
so 47000000/14
so thats 3.3mill ASICS needed

imagine electric
at 6cents an hour (to cover 5cent/kwh at an asics 1.3kw (back of envelop rounded math)
0.06*3.3m
=$198k an hour /6blocks /12.5btc =$2640/btc for electric

imagiine unit cost
recent batch of $850 per asic and lastability is 1 year..
so lets break it down to an hour 850/365/24 = ill call it 10cents for back of envelop math
0.10*3.3m
=$330k an hour /6 blocks /12.5btc = $4400/btc for unit cost
total cost to mine= $7k/btc

final tip. miners dont sell coins on exchanges instantly as soon as they receive them
so sorry this math cannot predict prices to the minute.
no one can predict exact prices, exact dates
no one can predict how high a hype bubble the next ATH will be or when
no one can predict if or when prices will stay low or for how long

but it can guage roughly the low area/zone for the month
so take a months overview and take the lowst hashrate you see and the highest. to see the area/zone of break even
https://www.blockchain.com/en/charts/hash-rate?timespan=30days
37exa(28th july)-54exa (11th aug)

and look at the months low of 37exa and months top of 54exa.. you will see a range of $5.7k-$8k for the month. and now guess what the high and low bitcoin PRICE swing was for the month.. yep $5.7k-$8k
magic right... nope. its math

you can atleast find a safe zone of average expectancy of the low price to know if bitcoin is near a low(within the area/zone) or hyped up(way above the area/zone)
1979  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Tokens (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN][ICO][VAR] 🐬 Blue Frontiers (VARYON) - Sustainable floating islands 🐬 on: August 22, 2018, 09:26:19 PM
seasteading since the 1981?... nah look further back, research buckminster fullar in the 1960's
plus floating homes have been around awhile now.. so i keep questioning why hasnt seasteading/blue frontiers moved forward..

you mention the "memo".

1. its not contract
2. the details, idea/gameplan for a project in French polonesia is different from what was proposed to the locals and what you tell investors of this utopian hype.

by the way
that memo was voided in january 2018. as no progress had been made.
secondly. the plan was to make CHEAP residences for the locals(they were told/hoped for). but the seastead investment and project was to make a independant tech colony for outsiders.

heres part of the discussion before the memo production
http://uk.businessinsider.com/silicon-valley-seasteading-institute-2016-9?r=US&IR=T
*platform for 30 people=$15m cost.. ($500k pp or $1.5m per small family)
*break ground in 2017

the seastead institute likes to buzzword things. like
french polynesia .. but they pulled out in january (SO STOP HIGHLIGHTING A MEMO..)
peter thiel... but he pulled out in 2011.. (SO STOP HIGHLIGHTING HIM)
 see how elwar "big buzzed" peters entrance of 2008 but does not buzz his exit in 2011, thus subliminally/subtly trying to make investors assume peter thiel still is part and still approves of seasteading.

sorry but peter does not.

french polynesia were told it would be a project that would give residences a place to live. yet the reality is a real estate deal where french polynesia gets ZERO economic benefit and those seasteads are made for the techno-rich population looking for a tax haven.

and lets get back to a point i have tried hinting at many times. the ecological negative of such a project.. waste managemnt.. as far back as 2008-9 there were many controversies.. elwar. go research russ george

but lets get to the crux of it
1. it does not take 4-20 years to make a float
2. it does not take millions to make a float to sstain a family
3 if you take all the buzzwords, fame-naming, and glossy pictures away. you soon see a big lack in an actual business/development plan.

to me its just empty plan that a 15yo could write up over 3 days and not something that really shows the detail needed that goes byond google searches that a real business plan would include. i can se why peter thiel left.

now how many people invested a few thousand with hopes of one day getting to live in french polynesia...
firstly if its more than 300.. many will get some bad news in a few years.
secondly if you think it will be cheaper than a land based house.. again bad news (yet non blu frontiers projects can make floating homes that are still in the housing retail market range!!)
thirdly if you think it will be free of government.. again bad news
fourthly if your one of the 75 local residents the blue frontiers promises and guarantees a home too.. i got bad news for you
fifly if you think after 10 years of seasteading in which elwar says he has had an partial interest in since 2008 things should be moving. but...


nope. all the funds thus far have been wasted on vacations and parties(elwar admits njoying his time in tahiti.. long with a team of others partying with investors funds)

also
while its been years that the seastead institute has been promoting all their crap and not moving forward. other projects unrelatd to the seasteading institute have actually got people living on the water
here is just one from 2015
https://www.amusingplanet.com/2015/06/the-floating-houses-of-ijburg-amsterdam.html

again for emphasis.. has NOTHING to do with the seasteading institute. and yet they made these at less cost, time and less buzzwords of promise. they just "got it dun"

the sea steading/bluefrontiers/varyon want to still be at a "insteading" stage way into mid 2020's yet many places around the world started and have already got past the 'insteading" stag years ago.

which if elwar done his research would se how blue frontiers/seasteading institute are very very empty of actual action

lastly.
for every CGI image elwar can publish of a buiding that has NO architectural detail of actual functional design (meaning only looks good but wont work out)
i can show you many images of floating residences that actually exist and are part of thier own water based community
https://thumbs.dreamstime.com/b/floating-neighborhood-view-several-float-homes-calm-water-portland-oregon-columbia-river-washington-state-54410363.jpg

http://jfgrowotherseje.info/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/floating-homes-for-sale-portland-floating-home-floating-homes-floating-homes-for-sale-by-owner-floating.jpg

1980  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Jesus’ Is Having a Hard Time Winning Over True Believers on: August 21, 2018, 07:56:08 PM
things i find funny

1. critics of ver are the ones calling him jesus. others that just dont care about him or not falling for the drama call him ver
   cores crew also call themselves things like jedi, wizards, ninja's.. so its all drama that has nothing to do with code/utility

2. the article says cash dropped from 10m to 3 mill merchant utility. (down to 33% of top)
    and yet bitcoin core dropped from 412m to 60mill merchant utility (down to 14% of top).. cores utility dropped more

.. what i would be worried about is where did the $358mill of top merchant utility disapear to?
why are people not spending $422m every month. why only $63m over both coins.

anyone can argue the social drama of the BScartel family feud, which behind the scenes they love each other and both turn up to family meetups.

but concentrating on the community usage and utility of crypto...
 you should notice although december had a 3x temporary event.
 
both coins have corrected and settled back down to pre december levels.
but why is core not at 33% of top utility. why isnt total usage of both coins with merchants at $140m monthly utility but instead down at $63m

i know i know im going to expect the typical core developer defense scripts.
but please. dont think about ass kissing PEOPLE of a certain dev group. think about the protocol and economics and really try to defend and think about the protocol, the utility. as we all know devs can disapear, retire, move on, get paid to do other things. (so put ass kising aside)

its better to realise that ver is not a coder. so defending/offending ver is useless. it changes nothing and is just drama/distractions. (but in the end he is still party of the same family as cores paid devs(if you really were to want to concern yourself with the people research DCG.co)

anyway. cash drops 3x core dropped 6x utility with merchants, yet although the price dropped 3x why hasnt overal merchant utility only dropped by 3x
Pages: « 1 ... 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 [99] 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 ... 824 »
Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!