creative thinking

decades ago people living in villages, countrysides only had local town populations to cater to. so volume of customers was limited.
now with the internet and international postage.. the world is open. you just have to find the right product to sell, even if it only captures 0.001% of the worlds eyes, out of 8 billion that is still 80,000 customers.. and if you only make $2 thats $160k

as for surviving in your own home on a fixed salary income.
being creative can be as easy as upgrading house lighting from 100w incandescent bulbs to 8w LED
do you need the $20 delivered pizza or can you have a $4 store bought pizza
do you need the new top brand 4wheel drive 4ltr engine truck/sports car just to drive around town. or can you do with a small fuel efficient second hand car

just buying your first choice is not a choice nor creative. always look for other choices by thinking creatively about other options. and never go with first choice as thats usually the dreamy want, not the basic need

first of all the oil cost crash of 2020 was the fluke due to futures trades that couldnt facilitate delivery. so people were literally paying refineries to take the contracts..
dont confuse short events of critical events..  with norm expectations

as for you thinking oil should go down to $40 as "norm" pfft.. yet the average of last 20 years is higher then $40.. average is more like $60($50-$70).. and oil has been seen to be $70 in february.. and not been near the $110 peak for a while(May 2022)

the petrol prices in the UK lingered around the £1.20-£1.40 from 2011.. so the expectant back to reality compared to the highs of £2 peak is getting back to the below £1.40 range .. i drove passed 4 petrol stations today. all priced £1.369, which is about the same price average i seen 2011-2019

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if you think oil and UK petrol should go down to pre 2008 levels (under $40 and under £1 respectively) as norms.. sorry but no, just no.
,,
side note. since 2004(20 years) the only times oil went as low as $40. was 5 months(nov2015-march2016) and then the futures oil deal crisis of 2020
$40 is not the expected norm. its the temp crash periods

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separate debate:
the reason fossil fuel costs have come down but the electrification of fossil power plants and renewables are still high. is because governments are charging carbon credits to fossil energy companies which sell on and average out over the grid to make even regions highly involved in renewable higher price because the grid spreads the carbon costs to an average per resident even if its green energy.

unlocking coin from custody(to day-trade coin) is a situation of needing to undo share purchases to have unallocated shares, to then request to dissolve unallocated shares and unlock said coin..
these institutions are not going to use coins locked into ETF to day-trade spot. many securities laws and custody policy doesnt make it easy

however they may have extra coin not locked. which they can play on the spot market

.. much like whales had coins locked in futures contracts, but used a separate stash on the spot market to keep the prices down so their futures contracts fulfilled

alot of people think any and all ups are bull and all downs are bears.. which makes people confused as to when there is true bull and bear..

this quick doodle may help

dont treat all ups and downs as bulls and bears. call the small fluctuations as something else like cubs and calves.
the bulls and bears are the significant changes leading upto a ATH(bull) and after a ATH(bear)

canada has its own stock/shares market.?.?. never heard of it! (satire)
NASDAQ, hard to avoid it

american employers invest their employees pension in american shares of american markets... simple as that

its more about when the gold hoarders are selling to the working-lower class consumers of walmart demograph, and not doing private trade at the rolex/lambo crowd. you soon spot how much they want to get rid of gold

again gold is at its near ATH of ALL history.. so not a buying time, especially when the causes of the ATH have passed.. expect a correction



im in the UK but i also see the views of other places

here in the UK fuel costs went upto £2/litre petrol and now back to £1.36/litre petrol
US went upto $6/gal now back in the $3.20/gal range

today blackrock hit 105,000btc.. a 10kcoin rise from last update yesterday
yesterday had 95k which was a 7.5k increase from the weekend

gaining more coins per day than its usual queue in the line, biting at the grayscale(outflow) pie
seems this week ETF's are getting hungrier and grayscales depletion schedule is not enough

decades ago in previous inflation's. employers didnt want to move the market rate of labour by increasing minimum wages.. which then impacted costs of goods
what they did instead(especially in america) was incentivise recruits/employees with hidden benefits, such as dental care, healthcare and pension matching

this meant the post tax cost of labour stayed low and employers got tax incentives/rebates by offering the benefits. which helped keep the employers costs down thus kept the price of goods down

employees then got free healthcare/dental which cut down their post tax medical costs. so they had more cash to spend on other things...
.. and thats the story of the evolution of the industrialisation of the medical system

no
savings is not about saving for things we want..
savings should be for the things you need.

both saving and minimalism is about purposefully adjusting your views to concentrate on the things you NEED
that is not to say people need to live without a vacation.. its more about concentrating on the fact that for sanity sake when you NEED a vacation to rest and rejuvenate and break the insanity spiral of non-stop work
you make the best judgements. not waste it on things that dont bring you long term happiness, recovery of energy and sanity

if you are just going on vacation because you want to for one week a quarter, try to organise vacation for when you need to 2week each 6month. make the most of time off to help you rejuvenate and have great experiences

or the opposite. if you dont want 1 week per quarter/2week per 6month. but NEED a extended weekend break to recover from stressful work every couple months. then plan what you need

still have your extended breaks/vacation just choose wiser about expense, experience and time utilisation

for instance
out of all vacations/extended weekends you have ever had, which one gave you the best memory and rejuvenated you, freshened your energy levels to make you feel happy to go back to work after the vacation.. vs which vacation was a huge waste (where after going to vagas losing on the slots), you came back to work more stressed, feel guilty about spending and upset about what happened on vacation

most people then work out the most cost effective experience, within budget that does not leave them feeling guilty of spending after and has rejuvenated them


people that purposefully budget. stop relying on 6 credit cards and instead start developing a savings pot for emergencies so they can cut up the credit cards.

they also look at the most expensive devices/gadgets/appliances in their homes and look at the warranties/expected life span of appliances. and then budget that too
EG a #400 computer lasts maybe 5 years so they budget an amount of #7 a month (#7*60month=#420) thus getting a computer upgrade when old one fails is not a sudden #400 emergency. but an unnoticeable #7 planned expense that eventually will be needed

thus saves you needing a credit card or 'pay later' retail loan
thus saves you needing to sell investments at a bad time at a loss to pay for the computer

they gave negative trust rating because your clown army you support(doomad hosted) cried to them with victim tears.

as for your research.
you dont read code or blockdata or find real statistics or data.  your research is asking someone their opinion on things and then you copy their opinion.
you are defined as a spoonfed consumer sucking up anything handed to you. not a researcher.

from looking at your opinions they all sound like copy and pastes from social/mainstream media.
when you dont sound like doomad, stompix, you sound like fox news

even your insults are a copy and paste

as for your incessant overuse of the word gaslight.. you need to see who's fueling your flames and causing you to get burnt. the vapour that comes to you is piped in from idiots. if your getting burned by it.. change your fuel source..
because you have become as useful as a gas flaring chimney. not utility gas

..
the main debates i had with gregmaxwell was about how segwit allows junk data to get into blockchain unvalidated due to backward compatibilities lack of need for network readiness/activation of understanding, having rules new formats of transactions... and ordinals proves the exploit

even your mentor doomad now knows i was right, but still hates that i even dare challenge/scrutinise the beloved gods you idolise and trust

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as for chinas gold buy.. such wow. they increased their hoard by 'meh' 10%... and are now offering out gold to help incentivise the unfinished real estate projects to be bought up at market rate by offering buyers a gold brick..
.. instead of discounting the real estate, which would ripple market price decline for other finished housing

EG if a gold brick is $75k and average apartment price is $300k
instead of offering unfinished real estate at $225k to spark buy-ups. they still offer real estate at $300k but give the buyer a $75k gold brick
thus the real estate market stays on paper at the $300k rate and not decline by 25%
get it yet

its the same trick employers do(but opposite to keep salaries low). instead of pay rises which spark inflation, they offer employee's other benefits like pre-tax pensions and healthcare schemes. so that they can keep the salary market competitive(low)

..
as for energy.. fuel costs are coming down to normal levels. which mean production, mining, and construction becomes reasonable again. because facts show the main costs of construction, production, mining is the energy cost. not labour

labour cost is more of a concern in the consumer market of retail

51% mining is mitigated mostly by not accepting low confirms as 'settled' for large amount an adversarial pool would attempt a re-org.
(they wont buy/rent billions of dollars of miners to 51% for just a coffee, but to undo a 200,000btc they might)
a 51% attacks most annoying trick would be to purposefully "empty block" to cause congestion
51% attack cant really change the code, protocol of the network. not without also offering people on the network a new node with altered code

..
owning any % 5-20-50-90% does not affect the blocks, or code protocol directly, coin ownership does not cause issues..
however psychologically economic nodes(merchant services) that still want coin, would probably sway to the whims of proposals of such high yielding coin owners desire in exchange for some of that coin IF rich owner(s) did then say they only use a certain node that communicates transactions in a certain way of certain format.. then economic nodes may sway their node branding to follow the majority coin owner(s)
meaning if it changes code protocol by following the different brand, it can mandate mining pools nodes to also follow this brand or have blocks rejected by not processing a format certain high yield coin owners desire

savings infers the word to save(rescue).. so only think of savings as the rescue fund. not the wealth creation fund. then it allows you to then treat savings as the small pot of money for rescue, and when you have that rescue buffer to save you in dire times. you can then stop funding the rescue fund and start investing the income excess excess

as for starting a business. no one on low income should jump big. always start low, test the waters and grow with prosperity
EG
if you want to cook food and serve it. dont envision needing $200k to buy a restaurant. start small, test recipes, see if the local populous even demands what you have to offer.  offer food delivery from a "ghost kitchen"(your own home that links to uber eats for delivery only)
have a food stand at a country market or street market. gain a loyal customer base then expand using the profits

to many have the luxury maximalist mindset of wanting to open a 5 star restaurant as first foot into the industry

truly plan your money. the minimalist way first. do you really need a fully furnished $200k restaurant lease before you have even let anyone taste your food to test your recipes. or could you start small.. perfect your offering. then expand

1B(1btc=$50k)x2=2B(1btc=$100k)
2Bx2=4B
4Bx2=8B
8Bx2=16B

4 halvings
2024 2028 2032 2036

..
now lets use the 4 ATH of
2025 2029 2033 2037
2.8b(1btc of $140k) in 2025
2.8bx2=5.6b in 2029
5.6bbx2=11.2b in 2033
11.2bx2=22.4b in 2037

my view, and from whats already happening. is as such

looking at the institutions.. we have things like DCG and river financial
looking at their funders we can see kingway capital
all of which have invested in core devs and many bitcoin services.

they have invested ALOT of money into things that incentivise making bitcoin network annoying whilst promoting subnetworks for middlemen hoarding/routing.

so yes the path being set is to make bitcoiners lives more burdensome and making a path to ETF easier..

its not a new game
back in the days of creating the commodity markets of things like wheat.
the commodity offering institutions got regulators to help them kill off the family farms and replace it with commercial farms. whereby they begun to control the wheat markets.

we should not be stroked and hugged and kissed with loving whispers into accepting the only way forward is to abandon the bitcoin network and move to commercialised subnetworks. we should not be ego stroked into accepting bitcoin should only be the reserve currency rail for the elites, while having our funds syphoned in commercial services of middlemen, via fees, account renting and wallet premium subscriptions of on offchain services

my view

grayscale has already lost 28% of its pre-launch holdings in one month.
so lets fast forward 3months time.. other ETF will then be having to majority buy from spot open exchanges and/or miners
meaning less supply/more demand on spot markets

ETF's are not looking for a scheme that lasts 6 months, they have business plans set for the next 5-10 years. and so forward-looking, the impacts on spot will come forth. its still the "early adopter" stage for them

pension plans only diversify/adjust portfolio/divest(from trad-fi) every quarter on average, so yet to see many pension plans buy into bitcoin etf shares. thus the buckets of coins needed now, compared to later years is a big difference.

things will shift to greener pastures. but not this month

as for your thoughts that these ETF institutions will use the coin to manipulate spot via day trading.
when locking coin into custody, there are contracts involved when assigning shares pegged. these cant simply be released as easy as you think, nor can the institutions fractionally reserve double trade their collateral. SEC has rules to prevent this

EG
the deals to move out grayscales 28% so far are not made same-day. they are plans made pre launch where grayscale had a queue and a daily limit.

many people pre etf launch expecting grayscale to hold onto its hoard. and not shuffle it over to other ETF. they thought ETF's would buy their own coin from the open market..
however january shown just a institutional shuffle from one etf to the others.

however there is only so much coin Grayscale has.. (72%) left. meaning 28% lost in one month
eventually other ETF's are going to syphon coins from the open spot market instead of shuffling. and these large basket purchases will directly affect spot price..

as for the effect on the other ecosystems such as merchant use and services offered.. well gold is not used in retail purchases of goods or services, so not much positive impact on merchant use due to being seen as an investment asset..

what bitcoiners need to do is not wait for ETF investments to spark some commercial investment into fixing bitcoin utility annoyances, because so far those commercial investments have produced unfinished sandbox subnetworks used as workaround of work around of work around to the annoyances that prevent bitcoin utility, all of which have not helped bitcoin utility, but just promoted people should use bitcoin less.. so no positive impact there

we need a fresh set of eyes, a fresh set of devs to go back to scratch and propose different strategies to solve bitcoin scaling/utility. that actually benefits bitcoiners.

ETF businesses have put a stake in the ground to say they see bitcoin as something that will be around for years. but now we have to get on and actually start proposing proper proposals to make bitcoin easy, cheaper to use for the benefit of bitcoiners instead of waiting for commercialised flawed sandboxes to solve things for us

there are no issues in how people want to use bitcoin, but we should atleast strive to point out the risks and not just play promotion platitude ass kissing

(people on this forum have already heard the word bitcoin to have even found this forum. so they do not need the cheerful whispers of utopian promotional recruitment speak, they are now looking for the real, factual information and risks they need to be aware of)

bitcoin in CEX have no insurance. so unlike a bank you do not have the $250k FDIC insurance
use a CEX if you day trade where depositing/withdrawing is a hassle but realise the risks. and note the "you can lose all your investments" slogan

holding long term because you have no intent to sell anytime soon. its best to suggest storing on ones own private key. but note the risks of different wallet, software and what they do or dont offer

..
those taking advantage of ETF share buys. should know although they get tax advantages whilst getting exposure to the spot price. they need to know their broker, ETF trust at their sole discretion can close the share offering. and shares are not claims to any rights to any asset held. you cannot redeem bitcoin spot ETF for actual bitcoin. you only have price exposure at a share ratio to bitcoin price based on the Nav number the ETF trust chooses and can change at their sole discretion without needing to give notice or get votes from share holders

gold went from $1.1k range 13 years ago to $2.2k so in next 13 years might be $3.6k-$4.4k at best.. but bitcoin will in 13 years get 4 more halvings ('24, '28, '32, '36) so bitcoins deflation will outpace fiat..

also gold only went high due to fuel going from $3/gal to $6/gal. fuel to mine gold is coming back down to the $3/gal range so gold can correct down below $2k, so dont expect $4.4k/oz of gold to be a low min.. but a max if inflation continued to 2x over the next 13 years

gold only 2x in 13 year. bitcoin since 2011 has gone $0.30->$50,000(166,666x)

im not suggesting bitcoin is ever going to 166,666x ever again as each halving cycle has seen less and less increments. but bitcoin will healthily outpace inflation

even if each bitcoin cycles ATH only peaks at 2x of last
EG 2025 ATH=$140k
2029 ATH=$280k
2033 ATH=$560k
2037 ATH=$1.12m

the feel of $1.12m will feel like $560k of todays fiat purchasing power(if gold/inflation was to 2x again in next 13 years)

the effect i have noticed is this:

when people had mixer avatars and footers.. alot of their posts were always aimed at privacy, where they would then mention a mixer..
now when i see the same people with betting avatars/footers. their conversations are now gambling related...
when people are using/paid by the merit cycle troll meme.. their posts become more trollish

seems money decides their mindset

not sure why anyone cares about market caps

market caps are not a measure of any real money stored as reserve to then pay out every holder at that $amount
market cap is just a measure of a small/decimal amount of an asset multiplied by asset total count
its never been about money held to reciprocate/fulfil all sells at that price.

there is not $13T of money held to fulfillguarantee all gold
there is not $900b of money held to fulfil/guarantee all btc
there is not $3T of money held to fulfil/guarantee all microsoft shares

market caps are just a unit price * total units
where the price and thus cap can change based on buying or selling just one unit.

anyone can right now create an altcoin with a 1trillion token pre-mine..
sell 0.001 token for $0.10
and at a real world cost of $0.10. create a market cap of $1quadrillion

anyone can right now create company with a 1trillion shares. (metaphorically, though securities commission will have rules)
sell 0.001 shares for $0.10
and at a real world cost of $0.10. create a market cap of $1quadrillion