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Google had the same problem early on. Its early adopters could have sold all of their shares at any point and dropped the price drastically.
but until all the wealth distributes more or less evenly with no single entity holding a large amount, this will be a problem for the foreseeable future. Like the dollar? No, not like the dollar because someone wouldn't have held a huge amount in the early days. They would've held a lot less. Because -> inflation. |
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What is your margin for slightly over? If you double that number you won't be able to bring the price to 0. But maybe double does mean slightly. You'll have to confirm that as well.
Ok, you're right. I originally meant to put 1 there, as in the previous sentence, I mistakenly rounded it off without digits to 0. My apologies. That is hardly the point I'm trying to make here so stop trying to sound so superior over minor details. |
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Google had the same problem early on. Its early adopters could have sold all of their shares at any point and dropped the price drastically.
That is public information though, and there are regulations. None of that data is available to us. Look, I'm not saying that Bitcoin will fail because of this, but until all the wealth distributes more or less evenly with no single entity holding a large amount, this will be a problem for the foreseeable future. This problem could've been avoided with a reversed reward structure. |
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It takes someone selling 311k coins to crash the price to $1
Someone with just 311k+ coins could simply make the price go to 0.
Maybe I went to a terrible University but my understanding is that 1 > 0. If, however, this is wrong, please let me know. No wonder I have bugs pop up in my code if this is incorrect. Not to argue with the rest of the idiocracy, but just that specifically. Notice the +... That means slightly over in most circles. |
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People like you who claim this flaw aren't thinking things over realistically, if someone buys up lots of Bitcoins or gains a lot of them the price will rise because of demand and the volume in circulation while the price in dollars will certainly crash Bitcoin itself will remain unaffected. People are still going to be able to trade with the small amount of coins left and of course as others have pointed out in threads I've seen without using search 1 Bitcoin alone can be divided up into millions of decimals.
In theory if the Bitcoin becomes that valuable then we will be dealing in 0.100000's of Bitcoins rather than in full Bitcoins because owning a whole Bitcoin will be like being a billionaire in conventional paper money, the difference between the paper money and Bitcoin of course is that the volume can't be increased. So to make a long and tiring argument short, yes, BTC/USD price can be crashed, but Bitcoin itself will be fine, it's a bit like when MTGOX was hacked, people panicked, but the reality is Bitcoin is still here and still being traded. We also had the GBLSE taken down recently and that hasn't drastically affected everything either and then there was that glitch with the MTGOX exchange too, while that crashed the price for USD, Bitcoin itself could still be openly traded without problems using the clients.
I am thinking realistically, please re-read my post. I didn't argue about someone buying coins now, but already having them from early rounds back when they didn't cost as much, or anything at all. This is a flaw in the reward system IMHO. |
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I think I was misunderstood, I'm not interested in the specifics of what it would take to crash the price, it was mainly an intro for my question about the reward system being flawed/broken.
Because nobody would mine, since it is going to become easier with time anyway. And if nobody wants to start, you won't ever reach the later levels of the project. Early adopters _need_ to be rewarded, or there would be no early adopters at all, effectively killing Bitcoin before it even started. Remember, those coins were worthless when the project started. Yet people were spending electricity, buying hardware, buying coins with a _very_ uncertain future. Those who took those risks have to be rewarded. It would only take one person mining at the start though. People were already doing it even though they didn't know what to expect, and people compete with each other for "internet" points all the time... I don't think it would've made things any different mining wise. It would've kept the price a lot more stable though, that's for sure. As more people got into it, more coins would be generated, so the price would stay lower for a longer time. |
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I think I was misunderstood, I'm not interested in the specifics of what it would take to crash the price, it was mainly an intro for my question about the reward system being flawed/broken.
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Sorry if this was discussed before, couldn't find a thread discussing the implications of having a small reward to start, that then increases over time.
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With almost 11 million coins in circulation, and the way the exchange market is currently laid out, I think we have a problem...
A market order to sell 311000 bitcoins right now would net 4278841.7722 USD and would take the last price down to 1.0000 USD, resulting in an average price of 13.7583 USD/BTC.
It takes someone selling 311k coins to crash the price to $1, which would/could completely kill Bitcoin off again. While 311k coins at current prices seem like something extraordinary, keep in mind that only a few years ago people were buying pizzas for 10k coins, so there could still be a few people holding hundreds of thousands of coins.
People like to think that the market cap is 500 million, but it isn't. Someone with just 311k+ coins could simply make the price go to 0.
I think the problem is in the design of the currency - and every other cryptocurrency modeled after Bitcoin. Early adopters are rewarded with a lot of coins, and once the currency gets mainstream, they have too much control.
While a sane individual wouldn't sell 311k all at once but rather spread them over a longer period of time and get more profit, a reckless or malevolent entity (government?) could simply kill any cryptocurrency in its medium/late stages simply by keeping a huge stack of coins from early on.
I'm not sure what the actual solution here could be, but I think it would've made more sense for the block generation reward to actually start low, and increase over time, than the other way around.
This would've hardly changed anything for early adopters because:
100 people competing over 720 coins per day is still better than a million people competing over 7200 coins per day.
True, they wouldn't have been rewarded so massively that it's potentially destabilizing, but they would've still been rich now.
Thoughts?
Edit: Since I'm sure I didn't discover hot water here and the ways of crashing the economy have been discussed before, I emphasized my main point above ^.
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I'd actually like you to win, would make for some good publicity for Bit14 I think.  For reference, your ticket is: Borrussia Dortmund - Shakhtar Donetsk 1 (WON)
Manchester United - Real Madrid 2 (WON)
Crystal Palace - Hull City 1 (WON)
Bolton - Blackburn 1 (WON)
Hearts - St Johnstone 1 (WON)
Juventus - Celtic 1
Paris Saint Germain - Valencia 1
Cesena - Ascoli 1
Modena - Brescia 1
Dundee FC - St. Mirren 2
Millwall - Wolves 1
Birmingham - Blackpool 1
Leicester - Leeds 1
Cardiff - Derby 1 The rest of the matches are tomorrow. |
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New grid up: 1 QPR - Sunderland 2 Norwich City - Southampton 3 Reading - Aston Villa 4 Ajaccio - Lorient 5 Nice - Montpellier 6 Brest - Toulouse 7 Udinese - Roma 8 Greuther Furth - Hoffenheim 9 Athletic Bilbao - Valencia 10 Rayo Vallecano - Espanyol 11 Valladolid - Malaga 12 Lazio - Fiorentina 13 Hannover 96 - Eintracht Frankfurt 14 Stuttgart - Hamburg http://bit14.com/grid/27As always, win by predicting just 11 outcomes. Jackpot at 11.8 BTC. Funding 3 more tickets for free up to 0.2 BTC per to the next 3 people asking. Reply with the link to them here. |
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New grid available: http://bit14.com/grid/26Champions League and Europa League matches. Closes on Tuesday, March 05, 2013 7:00 PM UTC Borussia Dortmund - Shakhtar Donetsk Juventus - Celtic Manchester United - Real Madrid Paris Saint-Germain - Valencia Birmingham - Blackpool Bolton - Blackburn Stuttgart - Lazio Tottenham - Inter Milan Benfica - Bordeaux Levante - Rubin Kazan Viktoria Plzen - Fenerbahce Anzhi Makhachkala - Newcastle Steaua - Chelsea Basel - Zenit St Petersbourg Win by predicting just 11 outcomes! You can improve your chances of winning by backing two or even all three possible outcomes on the same match. |
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So, since most people here probably don't know me, I notice that people are reluctant to try this out, even though I offered to fund the tickets myself. Between friends helping out submitting tickets and me, the prize pool is now at 11.72 BTC. Having a chance at that payout for basically free doesn't intrigue people here any more? ---- Also, I'm looking at ways to get this site in front of people - willing to pay, let me know what your price is and how you could help. |
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Based on what you're describing, the problem is not in this piece of code.
When you're withdrawing, you should record the withdraw in the database somewhere by subtracting it from "final amount" stored in the database. So that the final amount/balance is always accurate to what is in the blockchain.
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I've been thinking about making some sort of affiliate system for this to help it grow, but since registration is not required, a classic affiliate system wouldn't work. However, I think I have it figured out. I'm thinking about making it so that if you are the first to submit a ticket with a certain combo - you get a 5%(10%?) commission from anyone else submitting a ticket that is essentially the same as yours (win or lose). This works because you can share links with preset picks, such as: http://bit14.com/grid/24#2827324004941I envision someone creating some third party site discussing strategy and providing well thought out picks as clickable links. Any thoughts on whether you think this would be a good idea are appreciated. |
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Launched a new Bitcoin based gaming site a couple of days ago: http://bit14.comThe point is to predict outcomes for 14 sports events (currently European football), and if you get at least 11 right, you win. A pick costs 0.02BTC. Current prize pool is 11.82BTC.Note: To create a ticket there are 3 steps: 1) Make your pick(s), and click Submit. Tip: You can start with the Favorites and tweak your ticket from there (see the links on the right of the matches). 2) On the following step you will be able to enter a Bitcoin address where you will receive your winnings if you win. Feel free to create a new address for this in your wallet, or use an existing address. 3) This is the bet slip, you will now be able to pay for/fund your ticket. This is the page that I need the link of in order to fund your ticket. There are no fees yet, the entire bet is added to the jackpot. I'm interested in seeing what people think first. And... to make the launch sweeter, I'm going to fund tickets for the first 5 people to reply. Just post your ticket link and I'll fund it with actual BTCs which you can verify with the blockchain. (within reason, less than 0.2 BTC per ticket please) Please let me know what you think. Now with affiliate tracking!!!
Simply point anyone to bit14.com?r=<your bitcoin address> and you will receive a 10% commission on their bet, regardless if they lose or win! Payouts are processed every two days.They don't even have to bet right away, any bet made within 31 days from clicking your link counts towards your commission! |
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