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361  Economy / Economics / Re: Saving one third what you earn monthly is not that hard, isn't it ? on: December 14, 2022, 10:52:03 PM
Some struggle with impulse buying on credit and have difficulty saving funds.

Then there's a difficult question to answer about what to do with funds, once they're saved. Generally people search for a container to put their wealth in that will multiply its value, to create greater value. Or they hoard it over the long term, without expectations of appreciating gains.

Generally having a more "boring" lifestyle, makes it easier to save. Doing things everyday that are fun, which don't cost money. Not subscribing to the culture that encourages rampant consumer spending. There is a trend in society where those who follow the more boring path, can often wind up in a better position financially. In contrast to those who go out in a spending blaze of glory.

But the difficult problem is what to do with saved funds. How to take value and multiply it into greater value. I think most get caught up in thinking it has to be something complicated, big spending and high tech. But investment doesn't have to be any of those things. It only has to return greater value to whatever is invested. Which means things as simple and fundamental as moving lawns and cutting down trees can qualify. While it may not be the glamorous CEO thing most envision leading to wealth. There are people who transform their lawn business into a multi million dollar operation. It may not be the high tech thing, but for most of us it could be a good business option.
362  Economy / Economics / Elizabeth Warren unveils bipartisan bill to tackle crypto money laundering on: December 14, 2022, 10:25:45 PM
Quote
As federal prosecutors seek to imprison former crypto darling Sam Bankman-Fried, Sen. Elizabeth Warren is attempting to push through Congress a bipartisan crackdown on money laundering in the crypto industry.

The Massachusetts Democrat is teaming up with Republican Sen. Roger Marshall of Kansas to introduce new legislation on Wednesday that would seek to close loopholes in the financial system that pose national security risks by allowing digital assets to be used for money laundering, Warren’s office told CNN.

Due to time constraints, the Warren-Marshall crypto legislation has little chance of getting through this Congress. The bill would need to be reintroduced when the new Congress is seated.

The effort aims to level the playing field by forcing crypto firms to play by the same rules that apply to banks and traditional firms.

“I’ve been ringing the alarm bell in the Senate on the dangers of these digital asset loopholes, and I’m working in a bipartisan manner to pass common-sense crypto legislation to better safeguard U.S. national security,” Warren told CNN in an exclusive statement.

Alluding to the FTX scandal, Warren said the bankruptcy of a major crypto platform and criminal prosecution of its former CEO means that digital assets are “under serious scrutiny across the political spectrum.”

The push from Warren and Marshall comes just a day after Bankman-Fried, the former CEO of crypto exchange FTX, was indicted for money laundering and multiple other federal offenses. Prosecutors allege Bankman-Fried engaged in a global scheme to deceive and defraud customers, investors, lenders and the campaign finance system.

The new bill, called the Digital Asset Anti-Money Laundering Act, would attack money laundering by attempting to bring the digital asset ecosystem into compliance with the existing system of anti-money laundering in the worldwide financial system.

The legislation would direct the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) within the Treasury Department to designate digital asset wallet providers, miners, validators and others as money service businesses. That in turn would extend responsibilities in the Bank Secrecy Act to the crypto industry, including Know-Your-Customer (KYC) requirements.

The Treasury Department warned earlier this year that ransomware hackers, drug traffickers and fraudsters are using digital assets to launder illicit proceeds. US officials have also alleged that North Korea, Iran, Russia and other countries have turned to crypto to launder money and even get around sanctions.

“Following the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, our government enacted meaningful reforms that helped the banks cut off bad actors’ from America’s financial system,” Marshall said in a statement. “Applying these similar policies to cryptocurrency exchanges will prevent digital assets from being abused to finance illegal activities without limiting law-abiding American citizens’ access.”

The legislation comes as Warren and other lawmakers are scheduled to hold a hearing on Wednesday about the crypto crash and the harm to consumers.

The bill would also force regulators to push ahead with new restrictions aimed at closing a gap for digital wallets that lets people bypass anti-money laundering and sanctions checks.

Specifically, it would direct FinCEN to finalize and implement a rule proposed in 2020 that would require banks and money service businesses to verify customer and counterparty identifies, keep records and file reports linked to unhosted wallets or ones in jurisdictions that are not compliant with the Bank Secrecy Act.

Other requirements in the legislation include:

  • Banning banks and other financial institutions from using or transacting with anonymity-enhancing technologies such as digital asset mixers and from handling or transacting with digital assets that have used those technologies.
  • Extending Bank Secrecy Rules on reporting of foreign bank accounts to include digital assets by requiring Americans engaged in digital asset transaction greater than $10,000 through offshore accounts to file a report with the Internal Revenue Service.
  • Directing regulators to strengthen enforcement of Bank Secrecy Act compliance by establishing compliance examination and review process for money service businesses.
  • Cracking down on digital asset ATMs by making sure operators and administrators submit and update the physical addresses of their kiosks.

The stunning revelations in the Bankman-Fried charges underscore how crypto remains the wild west of the financial world. But it’s not clear whether the FTX scandal will be enough to prompt Congress to take major action.

Isaac Boltansky, director of policy research at BTIG, told CNN that despite all the “finger pointing” over FTX, it is “exceedingly difficult” to see Congress passing comprehensive crypto reform anytime soon.

“Everyone on Capitol Hill can agree that Bankman-Fried is a crook,” Boltansky said, “but when we move from the high level to the ground level, it becomes clear that legislative hurdles and potholes remain.”

Boltansky said those obstacles include jurisdictional battles and the “reality that Congress tends to have a relatively short attention span.”

Still, a more targeted legislative package aimed at stablecoins or money laundering has potential to get through Congress next year, he said.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/elizabeth-warren-unveils-bipartisan-bill-to-crack-down-on-crypto-money-laundering/ar-AA15gEwH


....


Summary.

Quote
The effort aims to level the playing field by forcing crypto firms to play by the same rules that apply to banks and traditional firms.

The legislation would direct the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) within the Treasury Department to designate digital asset wallet providers, miners, validators and others as money service businesses. That in turn would extend responsibilities in the Bank Secrecy Act to the crypto industry, including Know-Your-Customer (KYC) requirements.

Goals of new regulation.

Quote
  • Banning banks and other financial institutions from using or transacting with anonymity-enhancing technologies such as digital asset mixers and from handling or transacting with digital assets that have used those technologies.
  • Extending Bank Secrecy Rules on reporting of foreign bank accounts to include digital assets by requiring Americans engaged in digital asset transaction greater than $10,000 through offshore accounts to file a report with the Internal Revenue Service.
  • Directing regulators to strengthen enforcement of Bank Secrecy Act compliance by establishing compliance examination and review process for money service businesses.
  • Cracking down on digital asset ATMs by making sure operators and administrators submit and update the physical addresses of their kiosks.


Someone went on record and made a prediction that this won't get through until next year 2023 at the earliest:

Quote
Isaac Boltansky, director of policy research at BTIG, told CNN that despite all the “finger pointing” over FTX, it is “exceedingly difficult” to see Congress passing comprehensive crypto reform anytime soon.

“Everyone on Capitol Hill can agree that Bankman-Fried is a crook,” Boltansky said, “but when we move from the high level to the ground level, it becomes clear that legislative hurdles and potholes remain.”

Boltansky said those obstacles include jurisdictional battles and the “reality that Congress tends to have a relatively short attention span.”

Still, a more targeted legislative package aimed at stablecoins or money laundering has potential to get through Congress next year, he said.

I am definitely not a fan of any aspect of this proposed regulation.

Whatever happens, I hope people take it to heart and remember it when they vote during the next election cycle.
363  Economy / Economics / Re: Tesla’s stock prices dropping fast on: December 14, 2022, 09:52:38 PM
Some sources are claiming a judge ordered tesla to downgrade its self driving software to freeware and eliminate the monthly subscription plan for a single customer.

Quote
Judge Orders Tesla To Upgrade Customer's Self-Driving Computer For Free On His Model 3

This is a big victory for those who own Teslas built since 2016.

A US judge has ordered Tesla to perform a free upgrade of the self-driving computer in a customer's Model 3 in order to allow him to have Full-Self Driving without having to pay extra. According to Electrek, the customer, Ian Jordan, bought a new Model 3 a few years ago with the understanding it had FSD hardware. It did, but not the upgraded version.

https://carbuzz.com/news/judge-orders-tesla-to-upgrade-customers-self-driving-computer-for-free-on-his-model-3

I'm not certain if this will translate to other cases. if tesla will be forced to follow similar legal precedents in other cities and states. Maybe it won't amount to more than a single isolated incident?

Tesla's decline in stock price could represent the worst case scenario. Traders tend to assume the worst. Which could imply tesla's current stock price is a little undervalued at the moment. But there could also be declines in overall sales revenue which could be stacked on top of this, looming on the horizon. Recession generally correlates with declines in revenue. Tesla is said to have a long waiting list of buyers waiting for delivery of vehicles, which should guarantee demand. But there is also supply chain impact on revenue to consider.
364  Economy / Economics / Vegetable Prices Soar 40% as Crops Fail Under Extreme Weather on: December 14, 2022, 09:35:23 PM
Quote
The cost of produce in the U.S. is continuing to rise as crops dwindle from increasing levels of climate change.

Vegetable prices in the U.S. are around 40% higher this year and experts are saying climate change has played a prominent role. Bloomberg is reporting that Arizona produces 90% of leafy greens in the U.S. from November through March each year, but crop production has been greatly affected this year by a drought forming from reduced water levels in the Colorado River.

The decreasing amount of snow and rain has dwindled in recent years, moving into its 23rd year of drought, causing the Colorado River to shrink, according to research by Nature Climate Change.

The U.S. announced it plans to withhold about one-fifth of the water next year that’s given to Arizona’s farmers as climate change and the drought impact the Colorado River.

Meanwhile, California is known as the top state in the U.S. for agriculture but has faced severe droughts this year, resulting in $3 billion worth of losses, and after Hurricane Ian and Hurricane Nicole made landfall in Florida, it cost the produce industry nearly $2 billion across the state.

The loss in agriculture has prompted a rise in retail prices across the U.S., helping to drive inflation costs to the highest levels in 40 years. “There’s just not enough water to grow everything that we normally grow,” Don Cameron, president of the State Board of Food and Agriculture, told the Times of San Diego.

The cost of produce was up by 38.1% in November from the previous month, and the producer price index, which measures what companies are paid for their products, increased by 0.3% in November compared to the previous month, and increased 7.4% from a year ago, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Scientists have warned against climate change for decades, saying increased global temperatures will bring about extreme and unusual weather changes. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported as of October of this year, there have been more than a dozen weather or climate disaster events, resulting in over $1 billion in losses in each instance.

“Every year the farmers who feed our nation get smarter and more resilient, but it’s increasingly stressful to adapt to the extreme variability they face,” Erica Kistner-Thomas, with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Institute of Food and Agriculture, told USA Today. She added, “One year they’ll have the best year ever and then the next year they’ll be hit with a major flooding event or drought.”

Paul Mitchell, a professor of agriculture and applied economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison told the outlet although “crops are more resilient to dry weather than they were 20 years ago,” as the events devastating crops become more frequent, crops won’t be able to adapt quickly enough.

“U.S. agricultural productivity is rising, but it’s not becoming more resilient to extremes,” Mitchell said and questioned, “When bad years start to line up, are we doing things to prepare for the unusual as it becomes more usual?”

https://gizmodo.com/food-prices-climate-change-inflation-drought-1849883609


....


Its still not too late to get in on agriculture HODL.

Quote
The cost of produce was up by 38.1% in November from the previous month

If it was possible to buy and hold produce, investment holdings could conceivably appreciated in value 38% in roughly 31 days.

Unfortunately, produce is a perishable commodity which makes it difficult to hold over the long term. Investors have access to futures contracts can allow them to HODL agriculture sectors if they believe prices will rise. This is the typical approach for wealthier investors.

What options do those with less disposable income have? A pack of seeds can cost as low as $5 which could conceivably allow for percentage interest on gains within an entry level setting. If it is possible to grow $50 of food from a $5 pack of seeds, then in theory 10x return on investment becomes possible.

Another approach could be for stablecoins pegged to the value of agriculture commodities. For example, if there was a theoretical crypto token called potato coin, which guaranteed it could be exchanged for 5 potatos. Said crypto token could be pegged to the value of potato commodities. This could be useful in various circumstances. Can anyone guess how?
365  Economy / Economics / Re: The best Investment Will be defence and security here what on: December 13, 2022, 11:35:39 PM

What your best Investment?
Weapons Even self defence courses traning.
Now it's time to learn martial arts.
The world Will look like GTA San Andres or Even worse.
 


While guns and violence are the most useful items in video games.

I think things are a little different in life.

Imagine if you're stranded on a deserted island. How valuable would a gun or violence be in that scenario? Water, food and shelter would likely be your highest priorities. If you're alone or in a sparsely populated area, there will not be much competition for water, food, shelter, etc.

But if you are in a densely populated area, there could be very high competition for those things. In which case a gun and violence might have greater value.

I think living in a self sufficient community, with good people who organize and network could be the best security. The "army of one" approach and isolationism could be bad ideas. Having a lot of tough and reliable friends who produce their own food and energy, in a sparsely populated well defended area, who are well equipped and armed could be the formula for survival. Conflicts which arise will not be resolved by an army of one but rather I think barbarian hordes.
366  Economy / Economics / Re: This could be the biggest news in 2022 on: December 13, 2022, 10:41:30 PM


Banks aren't ready to buy Bitcoin but now Bitcoin is buying bank? This is the most mind-blowing news of the year



Interestingly enough, FTX had also bought a bank.

Quote
Why did FTX buy into a U.S. bank owned by a co-creator of ‘Inspector Gadget’?

Before FTX collapsed spectacularly last month, the exchange operated like most other cryptocurrency exchanges: in the dark, outside the banking system, and offshore. Cryptocurrency exchanges often struggle to access the U.S. banking system, and so they look for alternate routes to cash their checks: shell companies that hop from bank to bank before vanishing into thin air, dollar-denominated assets that can be cashed out abroad, or, in this case, simply buying a bank.

“Buying a bank often has been a holy grail” for companies that have trouble establishing traditional banking relationships, says Carol Van Cleef, who chairs Washington law firm Bradley Arant Boult Cummings’s blockchain practice. If an exchange owns a piece of the bank of which it is also a customer, “getting debanked is going to be a little more difficult,” she says..

Crypto firms are hardly the only ones to try to avoid this fate by buying a bank of their own. SunFirst Bank, for instance, banked semi-legal poker sites from 2009 to 2010 after a $10 million investment from a dodgy payment processing firm before the FDIC shut it down in 2011.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-did-ftx-buy-u-150330319.html

That news article is a good read. There is also a link in it to a story about binance considering buying up a bank of their own.

367  Economy / Economics / Re: TSMC founder Morris Chang says globalization 'almost dead' on: December 13, 2022, 10:32:32 PM
He didn't explain his comments because he doesn't have facts or reliable data to back them.



Globalization and global markets depend on energy sources with a high density or high efficiency to make global trade affordable.

What if fossil fuel powered container ships were forced to regress to sails and wind power. The low cost of labor might no longer offset the high cost of shipping. If that is accurate, then the high dollar cost of fossil fuels could naturally be detrimental to globalization, global markets and global trade.

In which case, we would see a shift towards local production and manufacturing.
368  Economy / Economics / Re: A breakthrough in thermonuclear fusion technology! End of the era of hydrocarbon on: December 13, 2022, 10:25:33 PM
I think fusion energy could be the wrong path to pursue. It could be fundamentally flawed in terms of the containment and insulation necessary to sustain the process over the long term, not being suited to applications smaller than planetoid in scale. While the sun can sustain a fusion reaction for millions of years. The mass and gravity a sun requires to make that a long term achievement might never scale down to a miniaturized industrial grade application.

Fusions extremely high efficiency is due to its near zero energy leakage. The suns high gravity keeps everything contained providing insulation and low heat (thermal energy and mass) loss. Developing alternatives which perform the same functional tasks in a smaller application is difficult to conceive of even from a purely theoretical perspective.
369  Economy / Economics / SBF arrested in the Bahamas after U.S. files criminal charges on: December 13, 2022, 12:21:56 AM
Quote

  • The cofounder and former CEO of bankrupt crypto trading firm FTX was arrested in the Bahamas after the U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York shared a sealed indictment with the Bahamian government.
  • His arrest is the first concrete move by regulators to hold individuals accountable for the multi-billion dollar implosion of FTX last month.
  • Bankman-Fried is expected to be extradited to the United States.

FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried was arrested by Bahamian authorities this evening after the United States Attorney for the Southern District of New York shared a sealed indictment with the Bahamian government, setting the stage for extradition and U.S. trial for the onetime crypto billionaire at the heart of the crypto exchange’s collapse.

Bankman-Fried was expected to testify before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday. His arrest is the first concrete move by regulators to hold individuals accountable for the multi-billion dollar implosion of FTX last month.

Damian Williams, the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York, said on Twitter that the federal government anticipated moving to “unseal the indictment in the morning.”

Bahamas Attorney General Ryan Pinder said that the United States was “likely to request his extradition.”

In a statement, Bahamian Prime Minister Philip Davis said, “The Bahamas and the United States have a shared interest in holding accountable all individuals associated with FTX who may have betrayed the public trust and broken the law.”

“While the United States is pursuing criminal charges against SBF individually, The Bahamas will continue its own regulatory and criminal investigations into the collapse of FTX, with the continued cooperation of its law enforcement and regulatory partners in the United States and elsewhere,” continued the statement.

Bahamian regulators and FTX’s attorneys had been engaged in a bruising battle in chambers and in the court of public opinion. Earlier Monday, FTX attorneys accused the Bahamian government of allegedly working with Bankman-Fried to spirit away FTX assets from company control and into into crypto wallets controlled by Bahamian regulators. Bankman-Fried’s arrest by Bahamas law enforcement, as well as his expected extradition, suggest that close cooperation between the Bahamas and the U.S. will continue to evolve throughout the bankruptcy proceedings.

In November, FTX and its affiliates filed for bankruptcy and Bankman-Fried stepped down from his role as CEO. The crypto trading firm imploded in spectacular fashion following a run on assets similar to a bank run.

FTX’s collapse was precipitated when reporting from CoinDesk revealed a highly concentrated position in self-issued FTT coins, which Bankman-Fried’s hedge fund Alameda Research used as collateral for billions in crypto loans. Binance, a rival exchange, announced it would sell its stake in FTT, spurring a massive withdrawal in funds. The company froze assets and declared bankruptcy days later. Reports later claimed that FTX had commingled customer funds with Bankman-Fried’s crypto hedge fund, Alameda Research, and that billions in customer deposits had been lost along the way.

Bankman-Fried was replaced by John J. Ray III, who had overseen Enron’s bankruptcy. Ray is also scheduled to testify before Congress this week. In prepared remarks released Monday, Ray said that FTX went on a “spending binge” from late 2021 through 2022, when approximately ”$5 billion was spent buying a myriad of businesses and investments, many of which may be worth only a fraction of what was paid for them,” and that the firm made more than $1 billion in “loans and other payments...to insiders.”

Ray also confirmed media reports that FTX customer funds were commingled with assets from Alameda Research. Alameda used client funds to do margin trading, which exposed them to massive losses, Ray said.

Legal experts told CNBC that if the federal government pursues wire or bank fraud charges that Bankman-Fried could face life in prison without the possibility of supervised release. Such a severe punishment would be unusual but not extraordinary. Ponzi scheme mastermind Bernie Madoff was sentenced to 150 years in prison, an effective life sentence, for his massive ponzi scheme. FTX’s collapse has already triggered the demise of BlockFi Lending, and has thrown the entire space into disarray.


https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/12/ftx-founder-sam-bankman-fried-arrested-in-the-bahamas-after-us-files-criminal-charges.html


....


Wow. Stuff is going down. Will there be a "free SBF" movement, the way Ross Ulbicht and other crypto celebrities in prison have enjoyed public support?

It seems that SBF was forewarned this was coming. His recent social media content has been very apologetic. And he did not attend that recent public hearing he was scheduled to have. At which time a subpoena was issued. And now it seems he has been arrested.
370  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin Investors to Get Richer When Fed Pivots, Prints Trillions of Dollars on: December 12, 2022, 10:33:28 PM
Precious metals, gold and silver are almost exclusively the domain of boomers like Robert Kiyosaki. While crypto appears to be the domain of generation Z and younger age brackets. CBDC I'm not certain about. Would it be more boomer or youth oriented?

The real issue here is everyone is scrambling to find an asset they can store their wealth in to stave off concerns of inflation. I'm not certain why Kiyosaki advocates heavily for silver. He's done it for more than 10 years. I remember receiving emails and investment recommendations more than 10 years ago from people who were influenced by Kiyosaki into buying silver. Kiyosaki has literally had the same hustle for more than a decade and it is still going strong apparently.

What precious metals like gold and silver really need IMO if they're to gain value. Is for markets in areas that have been devastated by natural disasters to revert to a payment system based upon precious metals. To prove that it can be viable and useful in emergencies or the apocalypse. The way things are going, I don't know if people would know how to recognize gold or silver in a post apocalyptic setting. There would appear to be no infrastructure to support it.

371  Economy / Economics / Re: BlackRock says get ready for a recession unlike any other on: December 12, 2022, 10:14:13 PM


value sits below the market and then from that people then trade a premium and speculate a price to do business on depending on demand




Bitcoin's past crashes were not the conclusion of natural trading cycles.

They were the end result of china banning crypto mining, silk road being shut down and other negative news worthy events.

You cannot simply look at low price trends to determine what the current price should be to calculate a linear growth cycle.

Or ignore that bitcoin's decline from its all time high in 2022, lacked the headline driven push of past years.

I have seen a few people post the correct answer to what caused the 2022 crash on instagram (of all places) and social media.

The truth is out there, although I couldn't say how far into public consciousness it has penetrated.
372  Economy / Economics / Re: BlackRock says get ready for a recession unlike any other on: December 12, 2022, 09:58:51 PM


the ATH is a speculative PREMIUM not value

value is found at the bottom





For an asset to lose a significant percentage of its value, requires significantly greater selling volume in contrast to purchasing volume, over a sustained period of time.

That doesn't occur unless we have news worthy events unfolding worldwide.

If we look at news cycles and don't see that happening, then market trading is an anomaly which does not reflect market mechanics or true market value.
373  Economy / Economics / TSMC founder Morris Chang says globalization 'almost dead' on: December 12, 2022, 09:52:29 PM
Quote
PHOENIX, U.S. -- The father of Taiwan's chip industry said geopolitics have drastically changed the situation facing semiconductor makers and warned that "globalization and free trade are almost dead," and unlikely to come back.

Morris Chang, founder of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., was speaking at an event in Phoenix, Arizona, on Tuesday where the company marked the symbolic first equipment installation at its new plant.

It is TSMC's first advanced chip plant in the U.S. in more than two decades, and Chang said a lot of "hard work" remained to make it a success.

He compared the current $40 billion project to when TSMC built its first plant in the U.S. in Camas, Washington, in 1995, just eight years after the world's biggest contract chipmaker was founded.

"Twenty-seven years have passed and [the semiconductor industry] witnessed a big change in the world, a big geopolitical situation change in the world," Chang said. "Globalization is almost dead and free trade is almost dead. A lot of people still wish they would come back, but I don't think they will be back."

His comments come amid growing fears that tensions between the U.S. and China over chips are splitting the global tech supply chain into two camps. Washington's crackdown on Beijing's chip ambitions, seen most recently in new restrictions rolled out in October, have made it increasingly difficult for companies like TSMC to serve clients in China.

Chang said he had always dreamed of building a chip plant, or fab, in the U.S. because of his own background. He was educated and worked in the U.S. for several decades. But his first experience did not go smoothly.

"It was, I thought, a dream fulfilled," Chang said. "But it [the first plant] ran into cost problems. We ran into people problems, we ran into cultural problems. The dream fulfilled became a nightmare fulfilled. It took us several years to untangle ourselves from my nightmare, and I decided that I needed to postpone the dream."

In the decades that followed, TSMC focused on building up cutting-edge chip production capacity in its home market, a strategy that helped the company keep costs down while continually honing its technological know-how.

Chang said the tool installation event -- an important milestone in building a chip plant -- signaled the end of one phase in making its U.S. bid pay off.

"The romance of the beginning is lost and the initial excitement is gone. A lot of hard work remains," the industry veteran said. But Chang added that TSMC is much more "prepared" than its first time building a chip plant in the U.S. with the support of the U.S. government.

A large delegation of top chip and tech industry CEOs attended the event, as did U.S. President Joe Biden, who lauded the plant as a win for the U.S. in its push to make cutting-edge chips domestically. TSMC announced the same day that it will triple its Arizona investment to $40 billion in order to bring its most advanced chip technology to the country.

Washington has cited national security concerns and supply issues for wanting to bring vital semiconductor production back to its shores. Many industry executives agree that the era of globalization is retreating, and that sourcing locally is now a top priority.

Lisa Su, CEO of chip developer AMD, told Nikkei Asia on the sidelines of the event that supply chain continuity is now one of the top priorities for companies like hers.

"The entire semiconductor ecosystem is ready to step up and work together. ... The industry has been through so much in the past few years. Having more geographically diversified capacity is so important," Su said, referring to the unprecedented chip shortage. "At the end of the day, what we want to do is ensure that our most important chips have a resilient supply chain."

Apple CEO Tim Cook also embraced the idea of onshoring chip production despite his company for years relying on global suppliers to lower the costs of its "designed in the U.S." products.

"Over the past several years, the progress we've made with Apple silicon has transformed our devices. It has unlocked new levels of performance for our users, enabling them to do things they could never do before," said Cook at the event. "And now, thanks to the hard work of so many people, these chips can be proudly stamped 'Made in America.' This is an incredibly significant moment. It's the chance for the United States to usher in a new era in advanced manufacturing."

"Building fabs is clearly very hard work," Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang told Nikkei Asia on the sidelines. "Today's event is marking that TSMC will be a fundamental partner of every company's aim for [supply chain] resilience. It will make TSMC even stronger. As TSMC increases its own supply chain resilience [by building a fab in the U.S.], it will give us resilience, too."

Apple, AMD and Nvidia are set to be among the first customers for TSMC's Arizona plant.



https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/TSMC-founder-Morris-Chang-says-globalization-almost-dead


....


So it seems TSMC's first attempt to deploy semiconductor manufacturing in the united states occurred in 1995:

Quote
"It was, I thought, a dream fulfilled," Chang said. "But it [the first plant] ran into cost problems. We ran into people problems, we ran into cultural problems. The dream fulfilled became a nightmare fulfilled. It took us several years to untangle ourselves from my nightmare, and I decided that I needed to postpone the dream."

Unfortunately, he doesn't elaborate upon his comments on globalization and free trade being dead. Most will not recognize what he is referring to. The implications and after effects however could be significant and widespread. If there is a transition from a global economy to local economy, it will not be a smooth transition. The edifice of laws and regulation are structured to facilitate globalization, rather than local production and manufacturing. Businesses and job markets would have difficulty switching up labor markets and supply chains.

Everyone who supported free markets 10 years ago, appears to have left the civilized world to live in isolated cabins in the woods. Maybe that is our most accurate indicator of free trade and free markets no longer having many supporters globally? The silent shift in public opinion has been deafening.

Will globalization make a return, TSMC's founder believes it will not. The concept of globalization was always dependent upon oil and one might say it wouldn't have survived past peak oil anyway.
374  Economy / Economics / Re: BlackRock says get ready for a recession unlike any other on: December 12, 2022, 09:50:35 PM
BTC was designed and engineered to thrive during conditions such as these. Does anyone have an inkling as to why this is not occurring? Specifically? Having followed financial markets and news cycles for many years, I feel like I have seen more pieces of the puzzle than most. There are a few different angles to bitcoin not doing as well as an inflation protected and recession protected asset, as it should be.
what do you mean not doing well

forget the premium market of speculation.. that is not where value or store of value sits.

look at the real value(its found below the market)

2010: $0.03
2012: $3.00
2016: $300
2018: $3000
2020: $5000
2020: $15000


In past years, there were significant and tangible reasons behind declines in bitcoin price.

What reason was there in 2022 for bitcoin's value to fall the way it did?
375  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What Bitcoin unit look like in real life on: December 12, 2022, 09:15:00 PM
Basically, I'm curious to know what a bitcoin or any cryptocurrency unit looks like in real life.


An officially printed and difficult to duplicate piece of paper, with a public key and private key to electronically stored crypto funds.

With a seal that would be broken when the keys were read. Is what I've always thought physical crypto might resemble.

There are physical cryptocurrencies like kong cash which I seem to remember having a good format:


Quote
HOW DOES KONG WORK?

Kong are comprised of a two parts - a physical note with a special purpose secure element, and a time-locked smart contract that mints the Kong asset. The secure element generates a private key which can never be extracted; the public key is stored in the smart contract. Kong is claimable only after expiration AND with a signature from the secure element chip.

Before the note has expired you can treat it just like cash. Unlike fiat cash, the total supply can be trivially audited and unlike crypto, can be exchanged with no records or transactions fees.


https://kong.cash/
376  Economy / Economics / BlackRock says get ready for a recession unlike any other on: December 12, 2022, 09:06:28 PM
Quote

  • The global economy has entered a period of elevated volatility, and previous investing approaches won't work anymore, BlackRock said.
  • A recession is imminent but central banks won't be able to support markets this time by loosening policy, according to the money manager.
  • "Recession is foretold as central banks race to try to tame inflation. It's the opposite of past recessions," BlackRock strategists said.

A worldwide recession is just around the corner as central banks boost borrowing costs aggressively to tame inflation — and this time, it will ignite more market turbulence than ever before, according to BlackRock.

The global economy has already exited a four-decade era of stable growth and inflation to enter a period of heightened instability — and the new regime of increased unpredictability is here to stay, according to the world's biggest asset manager.

That means policymakers will no longer be able to support markets as much as they did during past recessions, a team of BlackRock strategists led by vice chairman Philipp Hildebrand wrote in a report titled 2023 Global Outlook.

"Recession is foretold as central banks race to try to tame inflation. It's the opposite of past recessions," they said. "Central bankers won't ride to the rescue when growth slows in this new regime, contrary to what investors have come to expect. Equity valuations don't yet reflect the damage ahead."

The prospect of limited policy support means investors need more dynamic methods — involving more frequent portfolio changes and taking a more "granular view on sectors, regions and sub-asset classes" — to navigate the volatility ahead, according to BlackRock.

`Regime of greater macro volatility'

"What worked in the past won't work now," the strategists said. "The old playbook of simply 'buying the dip' doesn't apply in this regime of sharper trade-offs and greater macro volatility. We don't see a return to conditions that will sustain a joint bull market in stocks and bonds of the kind we experienced in the prior decade."

Wall Street banks from Morgan Stanley and Bank of America to Deutsche Bank have warned that US stocks could plunge by more than 20% in 2023 due to an economic downturn and liquidity risks fueled by the Federal Reserve's interest-rate increases. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon sees just a 35% chance that the US economy avoids a recession.

A slowdown in the housing market, delays in corporate investment plans, a decline in consumers' savings and deteriorating CEO confidence are early signs of the oncoming economic slump, according to BlackRock.

Still, the stock market hasn't yet factored in the potential magnitude of the impending economic downturn, the strategists said.

"We don't think equities are fully priced for recession," they added. "Corporate earnings expectations have yet to fully reflect even a modest recession. This keeps us tactically underweight developed market equities."

The S&P 500 index of large-cap US stocks is up more that 12% from a 23-month low reached in October, spurred mainly by expectations that the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of its interest-rate increases after a recent retreat in inflation.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/blackrock-recession-warning-stock-market-analysis-2023-economic-outlook-2022-12


....


Everything inflationary and fiat based appears headed towards a crash.

This should be bitcoin's time to shine!  

BTC was designed and engineered to thrive during conditions such as these. Does anyone have an inkling as to why this is not occurring? Specifically? Having followed financial markets and news cycles for many years, I feel like I have seen more pieces of the puzzle than most. There are a few different angles to bitcoin not doing as well as an inflation protected and recession protected asset, as it should be.

I think most would agree inflation and recessions are terrible. What steps can we take to mitigate issues relating to these negative trends in the future? Can crypto be upgraded and rebooted in a way to offer hard inflation protection consumers around the world seek. What valuable lessons and insights can we takeaway from current market and asset trends? What have people learned from this disaster?

If you were rebooting bitcoin in a way to protect it from being traded like an equity. Which suggestions or alterations could be made? Would anyone be interested in hearing my ideas on the topic?
377  Economy / Economics / Re: EQONEX Launch a Physically backed Bitcoin ETN just launched in German on: December 10, 2022, 11:49:57 PM
Germany is emerging as the "golden boy" of the european union.

The main thing which might restrict germany's rise as a global crypto power is the EU's AML (anti money laundering) regulation. The introduction of global crypto regulation, as well as additional regulatory hoops to leap through for investors, could both be significant deterrents to attracting investment capital. Germany's close physical proximity to the russian ukrainian conflict is also another negative against it.

There are a few EU nations currently pandering to crypto investment. Spain and portugal have introduced "digital nomad" visas in an effort to attract crypto investors and remote workers. With some success.

The EU must find ways to boost tax revenues to spend higher percentage points of GDP on defense. Crypto is one logical market to tap.
378  Economy / Economics / Re: Inflation: Possible increase in the next US CPIs on: December 10, 2022, 11:39:38 PM
We've deviated so far from textbook economics, that conventional norms no longer apply.

The science of finance and economics, involving numbers and math, should be accurate. Its an "exact science". For the same reasons most might agree that 2 + 2 = 4.

When many economists agree we cannot predict how this ends. Its an admission that math and science aspects were thrown out the window, decades ago. Now we have entered the realm of makeStuffUpAsWeGoism. Many prefer this format. As there are fewer details, numbers and statistics to consider. Some say facts are too confining. In which case, they prefer a "facts optional" approach to the economy and job market their lives depend upon. Its the type of mindset that led to individuals like SBF operating billion dollar crypto funds. What could go wrong? What indeed.
379  Economy / Economics / Re: Only one way to save people now on: December 10, 2022, 11:14:50 PM

The solution is Simple leave fiat banks and go crypto.



Unfortunately, I do not think there is a simple solution.

If there are lessons to be learned. Can it be fairly said conditions of reliance and dependancy are being weaponized post 2020?

  • Reliance on russian natural gas
  • Reliance on oil
  • Reliance on centralized supply chains

Everything people trust and rely upon today is being turned against them.

How do we solve this? Perhaps by relying less upon governments and corporations, and relying more upon ourselves?
380  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Should El Salvador Fork Bitcoin? on: December 09, 2022, 02:20:49 PM


What you proposed is a country spending money on subsidizing miners in the same country and then having them sell these coins to investors who would buy it... because ...why? Why would outside investors buy Salvador Bitcoin and not Bitcoin or Ghana Bitcoin or 600 West Third Street Mansfield issued by the Mansfield council in Ohio?

And if wood was a good investment, it would have been so without any token, right? So, there was no need for named token in the first place.
Second, you might want to check those prices again, lumber is taking a tumble and firewood will soon follow once things settle down and all the fear about freezing finally becomes what it was supposed to be, a debunked myth.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/lumber-prices-hit-lowest-level-since-2020-housing-market-slows-2022-12
https://www.investing.com/commodities/lumber

If you would have bought lumber in 1993, you would now have a loss, a 30 years asset that is in red hardly sounds "outperforming", what you're looking for is more speculation or, since we're talking about crypto, pump and dump behavior.




#1.  Lumber and firewood are two completely different things. Many types of lumber contain arsenic based poisons intended to kill termites. These types of lumber cannot be burned as firewood without exposing people to arsenic fumes that could be harmful to their health. In that sense it is inaccurate to use the terms lumber and firewood interchangeably. The market value and price trends of lumber and firewood are also completely different due to these reasons.

#2.  Why would outside investors buy an el salvador based fork of bitcoin, rather than bitcoin itself? Do you really want me to answer that? Ok.

Look at current market trends for gold and silver. Central banks owning the vast majority of good and silver in the world, make it easy for them to set prices off of their high holdings and liquidity.

The same precedent applies to bitcoin. Hedge funds and large institutional speculators currently hold the majority of bitcoins and liquidity, also making it easy for them to set market prices.

If el salvador forked their own distribution of bitcoin and blocked wallstreet and hedge funds from owning a large majority of coins to influence market prices. Then perhaps you might see the potential for price trends being more reliable and stable in contrast to bitcoin's recent price history.

In short, one motive behind forking bitcoin would be to eliminate price interference caused by large speculators and institutional investors.

In practice, this could be impossible. Wallstreet and big institutional investors are the most catered to demographic in all financial and investment assets. But in terms of long term price stability, it could be necessary to avoiding some of the negative trends we have seen in recent times.
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